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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Brind wonders whether Osborne’s luck hold?

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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Potential Labour leader on Newsnight right now...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @AlanRoden: Council tax set to be axed, and Swinney's 5% budget cut for councils: Exclusive in Saturday's Scottish Daily Mail. https://t.co/c6HiDOjxYN

    Superb news.
    Yep, Northern England agrees.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,062
    Scott_P said:

    TOPPING said:

    I know he's a good chancellor of the exchequer, but is he lucky?

    Given the number of "career ending" gaffes he has survived, we must conclude yes...
    I think the serious point here is that Osborne is a better CotE than Brown but mainly because by any objective measure or assessment, including by Labour MPs and analysts themselves, Brown simply spent too much.

    Shockingly so.

    Any CotE who followed him really only had to not repeat that error to such an egregious extent and he would be deemed a success.

    Of course GO has been spending like a sailor on shore leave but he is also shrinking the size of the state and allowing the private sector room to breath. Hence he will go down, events notwithstanding, as a better, perhaps even a very good CotE.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited December 2015
    The left, as exemplified by Don Brind, are completely gobsmacked, arent't they? It doesn't compute. Osborne is a useless toff, who was cutting too far too fast, and whose only interest is helping his rich mates. Cameron is self-evidently a vacuous lightweight. All the economists, or at least the lefty economists, which is much the same thing, were agreed: Osborne was going to wreck the economy, put millions (five million, according to David Blanchflower) on the dole, and destroy growth

    And yet the UK is one of the brightest stars in the firmament.

    They can't get their head around the concept that, actually, Osborne has judged things pretty damn well. Better, in fact, than almost any other finance minister in the Western world, other perhaps than the US - but the US had a number of advantages which the UK doesn't have, such as shale oil, low dependence on the Eurozone, and the most flexible hire-and-fire labour market in the developed world.

    Of course, things might well get worse for the UK. There are indeed ill winds blowing from China, from the commodity sector, from the Eurozone.

    I can't help feeling, though, that the very evident hope of Labour supporters like Don that it will all go catastrophically wrong, and that Corbyn and McDonnell, or even Angela Eagle, will be seen as the right people to put it right, is, to put it mildly, wishful thinking.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: "..a war was begun, in England, against Jeremy Corbyn... waged by the media, BBC & by the right wing of the Labour party,” says Tariq Ali.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,657
    On balance, things have been getting better rather than worse since 1945, so one of the following must be true: politicians are more likely to make things better rather than worse, or they don't make much better but their negative impact on society is hugely overrated, or they do mess things up constantly but there is some alternate timeline of the world in which perfect politicians refrained from mess-ups, making people hugely better-off than they are now.
  • tyson said:

    Osborne and Brown have much in common- they both exude politics. They live and breathe politics. They are both quite unlikeable and a bit skin crawling. They both are quite ugly specimens without being hideously ugly. They both are sexually quite ambiguous. From a Freudian perspective, I guess someone who is slightly ambiguous about their sexuality, may be quite controlling in other features of their lives that they have some say about, i.e. politics.

    They are both highly intelligent.

    I think though Osborne is ultimately more human than Gordon who had some very obvious narcissistic tendencies. I think George is less of a narcissist.

    Tom said:

    On topic I am very surprised that conservatives on here who loathed brown can't see exactly the same traits and danger signs in Osborne. Particularly the awful clientelist housing policies.

    Because its not true.
    Brown put a greater priority on "is this bad for the Tories?" than on "is this good for Labour?" The same (mutatis mutandis) isn't true for Osborne.

    Obviously like all politicians they both place both above "what's good for the country", but that's a different story.
  • Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: "..a war was begun, in England, against Jeremy Corbyn... waged by the media, BBC & by the right wing of the Labour party,” says Tariq Ali.

    Would this be Tariq "anti-capatlist" Ali, who trying to flog his home for a cool £5 million? How the other half life eh...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: "..a war was begun, in England, against Jeremy Corbyn... waged by the media, BBC & by the right wing of the Labour party,” says Tariq Ali.

    He's still going? I remember him as a leftie student activist in the 60s!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Scott_P said:

    Potential Labour leader on Newsnight right now...

    I'd forgotten just what an annoying prick he is with his whining toff's accent
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'd forgotten just what an annoying prick he is with his whining toff's accent

    He was the future once...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,698

    The left, as exemplified by Don Brind, are completely gobsmacked, arent't they? It doesn't compute. Osborne is a useless toff, who was cutting too far too fast, and whose only interest is helping his rich mates. Cameron is self-evidently a vacuous lightweight. All the economists, or at least the lefty economists, which is much the same thing, were agreed: Osborne was going to wreck the economy, put millions (five million, according to David Blanchflower) on the dole, and destroy growth

    And yet the UK is one of the brightest stars in the firmament.

    They can't get their head around the concept that, actually, Osborne has judged things pretty damn well. Better, in fact, than almost any other finance minister in the Western world, other perhaps than the US - but the US had a number of advantages which the UK doesn't have, such as shale oil, low dependence on the Eurozone, and the most flexible hire-and-fire labour market in the developed world.

    Of course, things might well get worse for the UK. There are indeed ill winds blowing from China, from the commodity sector, from the Eurozone.

    I can't help feeling, though, that the very evident hope of Labour supporters like Don that it will all go catastrophically wrong, and that Corbyn and McDonnell, or even Angela Eagle, will be seen as the right people to put it right, is, to put it mildly, wishful thinking.

    [Pedantry on]

    Tight oil, not shale oil.

    [Pedantry off]
  • rcs1000 said:

    [Pedantry on]

    Tight oil, not shale oil.

    [Pedantry off]

    Fair point!

    [After all, if we can't be pedantic here, where can we be pedantic?]
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    rcs1000 said:

    The left, as exemplified by Don Brind, are completely gobsmacked, arent't they? It doesn't compute. Osborne is a useless toff, who was cutting too far too fast, and whose only interest is helping his rich mates. Cameron is self-evidently a vacuous lightweight. All the economists, or at least the lefty economists, which is much the same thing, were agreed: Osborne was going to wreck the economy, put millions (five million, according to David Blanchflower) on the dole, and destroy growth

    And yet the UK is one of the brightest stars in the firmament.

    They can't get their head around the concept that, actually, Osborne has judged things pretty damn well. Better, in fact, than almost any other finance minister in the Western world, other perhaps than the US - but the US had a number of advantages which the UK doesn't have, such as shale oil, low dependence on the Eurozone, and the most flexible hire-and-fire labour market in the developed world.

    Of course, things might well get worse for the UK. There are indeed ill winds blowing from China, from the commodity sector, from the Eurozone.

    I can't help feeling, though, that the very evident hope of Labour supporters like Don that it will all go catastrophically wrong, and that Corbyn and McDonnell, or even Angela Eagle, will be seen as the right people to put it right, is, to put it mildly, wishful thinking.

    [Pedantry on]

    Tight oil, not shale oil.

    [Pedantry off]
    No, it's shale oil. Oil closed at $35.62 today.
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    TOPPING said:

    I know he's a good chancellor of the exchequer, but is he lucky?

    Given the number of "career ending" gaffes he has survived, we must conclude yes...
    I think the serious point here is that Osborne is a better CotE than Brown but mainly because by any objective measure or assessment, including by Labour MPs and analysts themselves, Brown simply spent too much.

    Shockingly so.

    Any CotE who followed him really only had to not repeat that error to such an egregious extent and he would be deemed a success.

    Of course GO has been spending like a sailor on shore leave but he is also shrinking the size of the state and allowing the private sector room to breath. Hence he will go down, events notwithstanding, as a better, perhaps even a very good CotE.
    You could have said the same about Brown in 2003. As the Premiership came closer, and the hubris grew, fiscal policy loosened. Osborne's ex adviser in the FT today warning of the moral hazard facing the Conservative party. Lord keep me prudent - but not when the top job is in touching distance.
  • I was musing earlier about how lucky Osborne had been with the OBR shaking the magic money tree and finding those extra billions before the Autumn Statement and how it played in to his hands with regard to meeting his surplus target by 2020. It highlighted the dangers of setting arbitrary financial and timing targets which have no particular justification.

    What would have been the consequences had the OBR's recalibration been the other way? Presumably, savage cuts on an unprecedented scale - and for what purpose...to meet a vain man's phoney target.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,545
    edited December 2015
    Labour leader has given character references several times in support of violent criminals

    Jeremy Corbyn was accused by a judge of trying to make a violent criminal “sound like a peace campaigner” in one of a series of court interventions unearthed by The Daily Telegraph.

    In 2008 Mr Corbyn attended Wood Green Crown Court in north London to provide a character reference for Salah, then aged 21, who already had convictions for handling stolen goods and numerous breaches of Asbos and court orders.

    Salah was part of a 13-strong gang called the “Camden Boyz” that had left 21-year-old student Mohammed Nur for dead in a car park after a savage beating in 2005. The 13 gang members were jailed for a total of 62 years for the attack, which prompted the murder of an 18-year-old in a revenge attack.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12046798/Jeremy-Corbyn-criticised-by-judge-for-making-violent-criminals-sound-like-peace-campaigners.html

    Seems like Jahadi Jez is more than willing to provide references for all sorts of scum, not just Granny robbing Jahadi supporting scum.
  • Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: "..a war was begun, in England, against Jeremy Corbyn... waged by the media, BBC & by the right wing of the Labour party,” says Tariq Ali.

    Close but back-to-front.
  • What would have been the consequences had the OBR's recalibration been the other way? Presumably, savage cuts on an unprecedented scale - and for what purpose...to meet a vain man's phoney target.

    It was the other way in 2012/13. Osborne kept his nerve, and didn't introduce new cuts.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/dec/05/uk-economic-growth-forecasts-obr-autumn-statement
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @corbynjokes: A Putinist, a Baathist, a Stalinist and an anti-semite walked into a bar and the barman said "the Stop The War Christmas party is upstairs"
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,146
    Osborne hasn't been a great Chancellor, but he hasn't been a terrible one either. I'd give him a C or C-. Yes, the trade figures are frightening and fiscal policy may have been too tight in 2011 and 2012. And he has failed completely to address the numerous supply-side problems in the British economy, in particular in housing and aspects of the tax system. But on the other hand, we have reasonably robust growth, and the shrinking of the finance and oil sectors created formidable headwinds for the economy. Of course much of this relative success was due to us not being in the Euro, and whoever was responsible for that, it wasn't Osborne.

    Clearly his true passion is not economics but playing political games. He's hardly alone in that in the Commons, but he's not actually that good at it - his wheezes backfire as often as they wrongfoot Labour.

    By the way, most jobs above a certain level need some kind of qualification. Why don't we insist that Chancellors have at least some kind of graduate level qualification in economics? It is a necessity for the most junior economist in the Treasury, but for some reason not for its leader.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Scott_P said:

    I'd forgotten just what an annoying prick he is with his whining toff's accent

    He was the future once...
    Never for me, not without the adjective "apocalyptic"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,034
    If Angela Eagle is Labour's Last Great Hope, then they are already fucked with a blue whale's todger....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: "..a war was begun, in England, against Jeremy Corbyn... waged by the media, BBC & by the right wing of the Labour party,” says Tariq Ali.

    Close but back-to-front.
    Do you mean his haircut?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This is the e-petition the media have refused to report on despite having 450,000 signatures:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/107516
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,545
    edited December 2015
    AndyJS said:

    This is the e-petition the media have refused to report on despite having 450,000 signatures:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/107516

    BUT BUT BUT what about Tyson Fury.....or the Donald...or the latest bogey man of the left, Mike Ashley.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,427
    The oil crunch is quite something with it now at just over £26/barrel.
  • Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: "..a war was begun, in England, against Jeremy Corbyn... waged by the media, BBC & by the right wing of the Labour party,” says Tariq Ali.

    Apocalypse Mao!
  • TOPPING said:

    Fuckin' ell

    just listening to AQ.

    Bien Pensant, right-on, lefty, quasi-fascist, total, total bollocks.

    Never was a fan of Al Qaeda

  • luck

    skill

    "In my experience, there's no such thing as luck!" - OGH Kenobi
  • Scott_P said:

    Potential Labour leader on Newsnight right now...

    Who did you mean?
  • Labour leader has given character references several times in support of violent criminals

    Jeremy Corbyn was accused by a judge of trying to make a violent criminal “sound like a peace campaigner” in one of a series of court interventions unearthed by The Daily Telegraph.

    In 2008 Mr Corbyn attended Wood Green Crown Court in north London to provide a character reference for Salah, then aged 21, who already had convictions for handling stolen goods and numerous breaches of Asbos and court orders.

    Salah was part of a 13-strong gang called the “Camden Boyz” that had left 21-year-old student Mohammed Nur for dead in a car park after a savage beating in 2005. The 13 gang members were jailed for a total of 62 years for the attack, which prompted the murder of an 18-year-old in a revenge attack.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12046798/Jeremy-Corbyn-criticised-by-judge-for-making-violent-criminals-sound-like-peace-campaigners.html

    Seems like Jahadi Jez is more than willing to provide references for all sorts of scum, not just Granny robbing Jahadi supporting scum.

    I must say this is quite sickening. I suppose however he was quite polite when he made the appeal.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The oil crunch is quite something with it now at just over £26/barrel.

    Yes the exchange at 1.52 helps.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    The oil crunch is quite something with it now at just over £26/barrel.

    Oil prices have dropped by about 25% in the last few weeks but petrol prices have decreased by only around 10%.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Scott_P said:

    Potential Labour leader on Newsnight right now...

    Who did you mean?
    I have to say that I responded before I'd seen TA, otherwise I might have been as puzzled as you
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The oil crunch is quite something with it now at just over £26/barrel.

    Oil prices have dropped by about 25% in the last few weeks but petrol prices have decreased by only around 10%.
    Yesterday the Telegraph had a very good article on this very point. Aside from other matters, cost of refining, retailers mark up, distribution etc., one must remember that fuel duty is charged at a fixed rate (about 57p a litre from memory) and then the Treasury wacks on another 20% in VAT (yes VAT is charged on the duty, taxing a tax). So the price fall we see at the pumps is always going to be less in percentage terms than the fall in the price of crude.

    Most of the money we hand over when we fill up the car goes to HMG.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @FrancisUrquhart


    'Seems like Jahadi Jez is more than willing to provide references for all sorts of scum, not just Granny robbing Jahadi supporting scum.'


    Yes any scum will do for Jez.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    I know that central government supports local government expenditure by grant but the break between council income from council tax and central government funding is really immaterial to my question. If council tax is abolished it has to be replaced unless there are cuts, which seem to be anathema up there. From what you say you expect all local government expenditure in future to be funded exclusively by grant from Holyrood, which you expect will in turn fund it by a Scottish income tax. Am I interpreting your post accurately?

    I live in London and council taxes here are a significant part of local government revenues.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
    Localism is retarded.

    End Localism, Centralise government and let local authorities make restricted choices. If the SNP can get most of the NIMBYim out of the Localist noise they will be doing well.

    No-one benefits from Localism.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    I know that central government supports local government expenditure by grant but the break between council income from council tax and central government funding is really immaterial to my question. If council tax is abolished it has to be replaced unless there are cuts, which seem to be anathema up there. From what you say you expect all local government expenditure in future to be funded exclusively by grant from Holyrood, which you expect will in turn fund it by a Scottish income tax. Am I interpreting your post accurately?

    I live in London and council taxes here are a significant part of local government revenues.
    They will be adding 1% to Income Tax, which will benefit pretty much everyone. A few people will pay a small increment but the big beneficiaries will be low income home owners.

    It is one of the most exceptionally smart moves since replacing Stamp Duty.

    As with Stamp Duty, it is likely that Osborne will copy Swinney's innovation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,427
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    I know that central government supports local government expenditure by grant but the break between council income from council tax and central government funding is really immaterial to my question. If council tax is abolished it has to be replaced unless there are cuts, which seem to be anathema up there. From what you say you expect all local government expenditure in future to be funded exclusively by grant from Holyrood, which you expect will in turn fund it by a Scottish income tax. Am I interpreting your post accurately?

    I live in London and council taxes here are a significant part of local government revenues.
    They will be adding 1% to Income Tax, which will benefit pretty much everyone. A few people will pay a small increment but the big beneficiaries will be low income home owners.

    It is one of the most exceptionally smart moves since replacing Stamp Duty.

    As with Stamp Duty, it is likely that Osborne will copy Swinney's innovation.
    Hmm 1% income tax additional vs scrapped council tax would benefit me personally.

    Is that really the revenue neutral rate ?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    I know that central government supports local government expenditure by grant but the break between council income from council tax and central government funding is really immaterial to my question. If council tax is abolished it has to be replaced unless there are cuts, which seem to be anathema up there. From what you say you expect all local government expenditure in future to be funded exclusively by grant from Holyrood, which you expect will in turn fund it by a Scottish income tax. Am I interpreting your post accurately?

    I live in London and council taxes here are a significant part of local government revenues.
    They will be adding 1% to Income Tax, which will benefit pretty much everyone. A few people will pay a small increment but the big beneficiaries will be low income home owners.

    It is one of the most exceptionally smart moves since replacing Stamp Duty.

    As with Stamp Duty, it is likely that Osborne will copy Swinney's innovation.
    Hmm 1% income tax additional vs scrapped council tax would benefit me personally.

    Is that really the revenue neutral rate ?
    It's progressive. The Mediam income of £25k pays another £150 per person and saves about £1200 per household. While the top income pays far more. It's a very clever way to increase top rate tax. I think its an absolute winner.

    But it's also probably not going to be a disincentive. I don't see the motivation for people on 200k+ to move away from Scotland.
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
    No-one benefits from Localism.
    Not even democracy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,427
    Dair said:

    I don't see the motivation for people on 200k+ to move away from Scotland.

    Could trade their 8 bedroom pile in for a small flat I guess.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
    No-one benefits from Localism.
    Not even democracy?
    Localism rewards a turnout of 30% of the electorate. Is that democratic? At least national elections see more than half the electorate voting.

    Localism is truly awful and the worst way to ruin public expenditure second only to Westminster.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited December 2015

    Dair -

    It's progressive. The Mediam income of £25k pays another £150 per person and saves about £1200 per household. While the top income pays far more. It's a very clever way to increase top rate tax. I think its an absolute winner.

    But it's also probably not going to be a disincentive. I don't see the motivation for people on 200k+ to move away from Scotland.


    It would benefit me too hugely because with council tax property values being set nationally and valuations in London being high, I pay a lot of council tax and I can manage my income. There are plenty of others who are in my position in spades and then some. It's a complex issue which will impact differently in different locations and with different people within those locations. Also tax avoidance (which is legal) largely plays with income tax on a personal taxation level. The "advantage" of a bricks and mortar tax is that it's hard to evade. It's very complex, much too complex for me at this hour so I'm to my bed. Good night.
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
    No-one benefits from Localism.
    Not even democracy?
    Localism rewards a turnout of 30% of the electorate. Is that democratic?
    Yes.

    If people choose not to vote - thats their choice.

    You want to remove that choice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,047

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
    No-one benefits from Localism.
    Not even democracy?
    Localism rewards a turnout of 30% of the electorate. Is that democratic?
    Yes.

    If people choose not to vote - thats their choice.

    You want to remove that choice.
    A bit ironic from those who want independence from a larger Union.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
    No-one benefits from Localism.
    Not even democracy?
    Localism rewards a turnout of 30% of the electorate. Is that democratic?
    Yes.

    If people choose not to vote - thats their choice.

    You want to remove that choice.
    People will make their choice in 5 months. And it will be a majority choice. Localim has no function until it attracts half the electorate which it clearly cant.

    And in the meantime those tiny numbers will try to block windmills and prevent housebuilding. Localism does NOTHING positive. All it does is destroy as NIMBYs command.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Previous Thread: the whole article is completely worthless because of the last sentence. "Cameron should have called Zac's bluff."

    The whole point is that Zac Goldsmith is not bluffing.
  • RobD said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    It's hard to explain how good abolishing Council Tax is for me, for the SNP, for Scotland and for the Middle Class.

    It is on of the most ridiculous taxes there is, this will be a shove past 60% permanently for the Party of Scotland.

    This is an innocent question prompted by your post. Does council tax work differently up there? Is it not exclusively council income to pay for council expenditure? If so, where will lost income be recovered?
    Council Tax is pretty much unrelated to council expenditure throughout the UK, the bulk of Council money comes from central government. It is a tax focused on lower income homeowners which reaches into the middle class. Abolishing it is a fantastic move.

    To give you an idea.

    In 1995 I bought a home in Glasgow for £28000. The council tax burden in that year was over £1000.

    Folding it into Income Tax (as surely must be the plan) is an fantastic idea which will benefit the vast majority of Scotland.
    Question: is there a plan for local income tax rates (I know there can't be at the moment), or is it all one national rate? If so, won't that make local government even less independent and more reliant on the handout from the centre? Or is that the plan?
    No-one benefits from Localism.
    Not even democracy?
    Localism rewards a turnout of 30% of the electorate. Is that democratic?
    Yes.

    If people choose not to vote - thats their choice.

    You want to remove that choice.
    A bit ironic from those who want independence from a larger Union.
    Yes. One wonders if Dair would be so keen if Labour were in power.....

    Of course centralisation is an unqualified success in Scotland - just look at Police Scotland.....
This discussion has been closed.