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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Brind wonders whether Osborne’s luck hold?
“We have an economic plan that is delivering for Britain”. When George Osborne uttered his familiar mantra in the Commons on Wednesday it sounded as though he was clinging to a piece of wreckage after his encounter with Angela Eagle.
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Errm
Who knows. Recessions are unpredictable beasts. "Boom and bust"
will Labour be in a position to capitalise on the opportunity?
No.
Most Labour MPs think they’d be better able to do that with a different leader.
Won't happen for a while, when it does it will be from the left. This may well be after the GE.
Which is why there was such warm praise for Angela Eagle on Wednesday.
She won't be leader, neither will Benn, Jarvis or Chuka. I'm merrily laying them all on Betfair.
In a hotel room, counting money on the bed with Miss World, champagne on ice...the waiter comes in: George where did it all go wrong?
A map of the world using the colours of the leaders' hair:
http://ace.mu.nu/Windows-Live-Writer/0688a44f4e96_F889/haircolorleader.png
Meanwhile, a story to make Democrats salivate:
http://www.aol.com/article/2015/12/11/republican-candidate-carson-reportedly-considering-independent-b/21282163/?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D-1583050711
Q: Is Osborne a bit lucky at present?
A: Yes, a bit. So I agree with the headline.
But a few points that Mr Brind ought to be aware of if he was ever to learn to be fair and accurate in his articles (yes I know the BBC training does not induce that).
1. "Eagle pointed out that the Chancellor had cut flood defence spending by £115 million this year" Creates a false picture and yes the BBC did that. Last year included a temporary extra payment but the budget compared to the budget for last year has no cut. Of course the actual spend this year is likely to be higher - at least £50m higher - due to the floods.
2. Is the economy doing so badly? No is the answer Mr Brind, on the News tonight is Christine Lagarde praising how well our economy is doing best of all developed countries.....
Now, personally I think Osborne is making mistakes in not cutting back hard enough and not investing more in infrastructure such as roads. But compared to many countries we are doing ok.
The result is predictably the largest bubble ever in Britain's economic history, bigger than the Lawson bubble of 1986-88, and it shows:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/current-account-to-gdp
For how long can Britain find 6% of it's GDP per year (and rising) from foreigners to keep the economy from crashing?
The Arabs are getting dry with low oil prices, the russians are barred by sanctions, the japanese busy funding their own liabilities and the chinese are not into asset bubbles right now, the americans too are also busy funding their own liabilities, the europeans have no cash and neither the third world after the commodities crash.
But I know some here are interested in the prospects for fusion.
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/energy/news/wendelstein-7-x-fusion-reactor-comes-online/1021553.article
Some may be choosing to instruct children in a way which is deeply socially conservative by many people's standards. Others prefer a focus on global citizenship, and shared Muslim values, to the British values which now must be incorporated into teaching in England's schools.
This is a choice being made by parents, opting for an education which they believe matches their values. Some low-income families are finding fees of about £1,200 a year for each child to be educated..."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-35072824
Could the BBC try and spin this anymore? Compare and contrast to treatment of the big oath Tyson Fury and his "socially conservative" views.
Corbyn set to defy calls to shun Stop the War dinner
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35069929
Labour Press Team ✔ @labourpress
Jeremy Corbyn speaking at the Stop the War Coalition Christmas Fundraising Dinner @jeremycorbyn http://press.labour.org.uk/post/134997054474/jeremy-corbyn-speaking-at-the-stop-the-war …
In response to the Washington Post article about the party establishment plotting to prevent a Trump nomination, Carson said:
"If this was the beginning of a plan to subvert the will of the voters and replace it with the will of the political elite, I assure you Donald Trump will not be the only one leaving the party," Carson said in a statement that referenced Trump's repeated threats to leave the GOP if treated "unfairly."
"I pray that the report in the Post this morning was incorrect," Carson added. "If it is correct, every voter who is standing for change must know they are being betrayed. I won't stand for it."
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/11/politics/ben-carson-donald-trump-leave-republican-party-threat/
Carson is threatening to leave the GOP with Trump if they prevent Trump from winning the nomination.
It's the Corbyn Labour leadership race all over again.
http://order-order.com/2015/12/11/guardian-pol-ed-job-share/
Watt seemed to be doing the bulk of the work compared to his boss, Wintour, so to lose out seems rough
Jamie Reed @jreedmp
Sadly, the Labour Leader is giving two fingers to the Labour Party tonight.
This is ridiculous, they have no right to force someone to change his name, especially since that man is dead.
And that's Jamie Reed's problem.
Jamie Reed @jreedmp 15 mins15 minutes ago
Pity the poor press officer forced to put that shameful screed out tonight. They'd have known it was disastrous.
Once you start, where do you stop? Professor White, Professor Black, ....Anybody called Adolf? or Joesph?
Corbyn's critics so far are just persons who most people in the Labour party hate for either personal or political reasons, and that's the problem of those who want to get rid of Corbyn.
There is a Swedish King called Adolph.
Your post should be removed for failing to include a very necessary trigger warning!!!
But your post mentions the word "trigger" which could remind us of guns, so you've got to drop the word “trigger” in the your phrase “trigger warning” since the word “trigger” can be triggering. Or something.
Having a laugh ?
If it was worse than the great Labour crash in 2007 & they dumped Corbyn & IRA McDonnell,possibly.
There are certain attributes that belong to each House. Slytherins value cunning and leadership skills; Gryffindors value bravery and selflessness; Hufflepuffs value hard work and loyalty; Ravenclaws value intellectual skills. These are all good attributes, although they can be put to evil uses. Given that power tends to corrupt, you would probably expect to see a higher proportion of bad people among Slytherins (the kind of people who would do anything to gain power) and Ravenclaws (the kind of people who would become fascinated by black magic) than among the other Houses. But, you'd expect to see good people among them as well. You'd also expect to see some Gryffindors and Hufflepuffs being seduced into evil causes, in the way that well-meaning people are in real life.
But, with a couple of exceptions, Slytherin is a House of fantasy Nazis. Sure, Snape was working for the Order all along, but he was still a shit towards any student who wasn't a Slytherin, Harry especially. Malfoy never redeemed himself; he just lost his nerve.
luck
skill
One of the weirdest beliefs that seemed to take root in the summer was that Labour had already lost in 2020 whoever they chose, so they might as well go for broke and lose in style. In reality, if Cooper had won, she'd have a good chance becoming PM in 2020. The Tories will look tired by then, Cameron will be gone etc etc.
But all that was washed away on 12th September. Now, the answer to "will Osborne's luck hold" is the same as the answer to "would Corbyn win any Labour leadership contest before the next election?"
(Disclaimer: odd that Poland has such a high percentage, and Finland such a low one.)
Georgia
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/new-gop-poll-shows-trump-top-carson-collapsing/nphL8/
Trump 43 +12
Cruz 16 +8
Rubio 11 +2
Carson 7 -11
Bush 5 -3
Kasich 2 -1
Trump getting 56% of african-americans (as shown from those focus groups, Trump's muslim immigration ban proposal is very popular with african-americans).
It doesn't look like Trump will fail to win a majority of delegates, you can play with this interactive delegate tool and see for yourselves:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/17/the_gop_race_for_delegates_an_interactive_tool.html
Did anyone else reading the series find is worrying that an alliterative name was practically a requirement for being a successful witch or wizard?
(and me...)
Cllr John Ferrett @John_Ferrett
Stop the War praised Iraqi 'resistance' when they were killing British troops - now the Labour Party are using members' money to promote it
Richard Angell @RichardAngell
A low point for @UKLabour. It makes me sad
Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Jeremy Corbyn's address to the Stop the War bash is basically a massive an 'up yours' to most of his MPs pic.twitter.com/ED8hqbyCIe
The British idea that it's actually worrying if the kids don't leave by age 18 is odd IMO. But the alternative model depends on everyone being prepared to adjust - authoritarian/possessive parents still trying to tell their adult kids what to do are not a good idea. I lived with my parents till they died, so I suppose I'm biased, but it morphed into a brotherly relationship rather than parent/son, and I was able to look after them both while living a pretty full life: it seemed pretty good to me (and I think to them).
Vacuum energy is where the money is!!
http://www.icelandairhotels.com/en/hotels/hamar
Mr. JS, no, but I'd like to. Never seen the aurora borealis either.
The Czech Republic is a huge surprise. Maybe that's why they love swinger sex clubs so much.
At best our political leaders are marginal tinkerers rather than fixers. They are always hostage to economic events, long out of their control. Housing bubbles, global events, currency fluctuations, and just that boring economic cycle that governments are incapable of shaping.
There is no luck with politics- it is all about timing, and hoping you are not around when something horrible happens which is completely out of your control.
In 2003 they were entitled to defend themselves from aggressors.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
I can see Trump easily winning the GOP nomination, but - given his high negatives among females and hispanics - I don't see him winning the general election.
In the UK we need to make sure that we care for the elderly, but not at the expense of family female carers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=12046854&cc=12026016
DB fails to mention that, whilst the world is presently an uncomfortable place, the UK is faring better than most. Of course this isn't all down to GO, but I think Joe Public probably reckons that the position under Labour with GO's luck would still be substantially worse, and under Jehadi Jez's rabble exponentially worse. DB also fails to advise how JJ can be dethroned by anyone other than a JJ acolyte before 2020.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/12046387/britain-military-action-isil-libya.html
just listening to AQ.
Bien Pensant, right-on, lefty, quasi-fascist, total, total bollocks.
Including from Dominic Grieve.
What politicians can do, is assist in general wellbeing and happiness but they generally don't, either for reasons of ill-thought out ideas about economics or to gain financially as individuals (both are Tory traits).
The idea that a particular choice of politician can ever do anything economically beneficial is farcical.
And you are absolutely right, the sole power of politicians is to break things. It's pretty much the only agency they have. That's why the SNP do so well in Scotland. After years of Tories and Red Tories breaking things they got a government which doesn't break things.
Even the Bridge has been owned up to by the Liberals now.
They are both highly intelligent.
I think though Osborne is ultimately more human than Gordon who had some very obvious narcissistic tendencies. I think George is less of a narcissist.