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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at whether Donald Trump can really do it
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran talks Trump with Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post USA. His recent comments on Muslims have caused an international furor and yet his popularity (at least in the GOP) seems undiminished. Should we start getting used to the idea of President Trump?
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Interesting Blantyre first prefs on the last thread - despite Dair's chaff, I'd think the SNP will have been surprised not to come first on recent trends. In general Lab/Lib performance on the results looks OK (the LibDem gain is startling) while UKIP performance looks weak again. But let's see the full results when Harry is able to - speedy recovery, by the way, Harry, we need you!
Don't know if you saw my post the other day - am in SF 2nd week of January (10-14) if you fancy a quick drink
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Huntingdon East (Huntingdonshire) result:
LDEM: 45.0% (+13.8)
CON: 31.8% (+5.9)
UKIP: 15.6% (-16.9)
LAB: 7.5% (-2.9)
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Liberal Democrat GAIN Huntingdon East (Huntingdonshire) from UKIP.
A lead for so long, that much ego and money. He's a runner, Republican or independent.
is there any skiing in SoCal?
Not sure of my schedule for the New Years yet, but will keep that week in mind! Up to anything nice?
Cartel lords seem to be well suited to killing ISIS - incredibly brutal and awash with money
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/10/cameron-compromise-in-work-benefits-ban-eu-migrants
I'm sure the pack of pb Tories will rush to his defence.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Scotland: The Slightly Less English British Franchise....
The Franchise where corporation tax is lower than it is in London. The Franchise where you can still go to jail for possessing cannabis, but hey, didn’t we show those English twats who is boss? The Franchise where we still operate on the same moral playing field as the union we so denounce – politically, economically and militarily insulated by NATO and the EU – while believing ourselves to be morally superior.
Scotland: The Slightly Less English British Franchise where being Scottish alone is what makes us moral. Where being Scottish in and of itself trumps all else. Where being Scottish is its own justification and anybody with anything critical to say is a vicious nonce apologist.
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2015/12/07/scotland-the-utopia-that-never-was/
If he is lucky people will be more focussed on Christmas and organising their social lives through PB but really, what a crazy thing to do, even by his own exalted standards. He is still in that irrelevant but right on back bencher bubble and shows no desire to leave it.
It seems arrest is being used as an early disrupter/discouragement strategy. I don't have any real problem with that but it can distort the picture a bit.
It's possible Trump could do it. Worse leaders have ascended to lead nations. Or political parties.
Mr. L, I agree. Apparently the Corbyn connection was made on the BBC news at six, but they'd magically forgotten about it in time for the news at ten. Not sure why.
It seems arrest is being used as an early disrupter/discouragement strategy. I don't have any real problem with that but it can distort the picture a bit.
As uncomfortable as it is for Tories, Cameron is making a fool of himself over the EU, the press are unanimous.
To be honest, I'd head over to Teleride if that's what you're looking for
The eurosceptics in the Conservative party regard Cameron as being thoroughly untrustworthy, this sham of renegotiations is going to expose him completely. That's not to say we'll leave, but it will discredit Cameron in the way plenty of us have been pointing out for years.
The Heathrow farce is further evidence.
Anyway, most PBTories are "undecided" like Mr Nabavi and TSE, which I think is a nice way of saying they are waiting for the email from CCHQ telling them which way to vote!
Can I ask a serious question about Heathrow vs Gatwick? Yes, I could google, but I suspect a more measured answer is available here. If pollution (chemical and noise) is the issue, why is it not an issue at Gatwick too?. Is Croydon not built up?
Wherever a new runway is built, it will cause distress to the locals, or be so far away, it would be worthy of Ryanair. Why is Heathrow special?
People have taken the economic recovery for granted and might be forgiven for asking: what is this government actually doing?
Of course the answer: "it is being not a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party" is more than sufficient for the moment.
But the risk is that Lab comes to its senses in which case I feel the Cons would get massacred.
You misunderstand Mr Nabavi, he has stated unequivocally that he is not tribal.
Unfortunately the concept of judicial review - intended to avoid unfair and perverse decisions by the executive - has been stretched beyond all recognition by campaigners.
With the Heathrow activists threatening court action because inadequate analysis of environmental and noise impact of a third runway had been performed, unfortunately the government needs to do the extra work. If they didn't, it would go to court, be delayed & then there would be a good chance they'd need to do the extra work anyway
I see. Thank you.
Anyway, most PBTories are "undecided" like Mr Nabavi and TSE, which I think is a nice way of saying they are waiting for the email from CCHQ telling them which way to vote!
It wouldn't have mattered who was leading UKIP, the same process would have happened. Dan Hannan would probably have been portrayed as a nasty Thatcherite elitist, Carswell, who is far less articulate than Farage, would have just been pres mincemeat.
The four demands are actually only two demands: a non-EZ veto and a four year ban on benefits. They have already been won. They were due to be announced in December but the Lords messing about has meant the shine of the false victory would have worn off by the time of the vote. So they are now delaying until the vote is in law. Then there will be a last minute victory by Cameron, which the Europhile and Tory loyalist press will report as an unexpected victory over hard opposition. The word Thatcherite might even be used. Then there will be a rush to vote before it unravels as having no effect on immigration whatsoever.
As Portillo said, Cameron told everyone at the start that he wanted Britain to remain, and that meant any negotiation was doomed
Echoes of CiF and the great Murdoch conspiracy in such a proposition.
(Welcome back, btw.)
The negotiation is, I suspect, over the piece of paper Cameron will get, which he will claim is a great victory.
A few months ago some here were suggesting he might go for Out, but I remained as sceptical then as I am now.
Edited extra bit: Mr. D, if he is, it's a very good disguise.
Gutless. Or incompetent in not being in a position to take the decision yet.
Looking over my own shoulder now!!
Politics thrives on the disinterest of the bulk of the populations, you get endless bullshit like Dave's "cast iron" promises, and his "no ifs, no buts", and most of Osbrown's budgets, which the spin doctors know they will have to back away from once the think tanks have had a look, but the PM launching his manifesto, or the Chancellors budget speech gets a large audience, his spin doctors moving to a more nuanced position on the second page of the politics section of the Telegraph is seem by almost no one. So that man on the streets only sees the bullshit version.
The choices were making a decision, getting sued, no progress for 6 months and a 50/50 chance of further delay
Or (b) delay now, do the analysis, get sued, 90/10 chance of being able to progress. With political upside.
Not gutless, sensible. For a 50 year decision, 6 months is neither here nor there. But they need to reform judicial review (as I've been saying for 5 years)
http://i.imgur.com/UMCy6Qq.png?1
Plato_Says
I am rather sympathetic to Corbyn on the fraudster letter. MPs do try to do their best for their constituents and cannot always have the full information available.
One complication for Labour is their re-action when Nicola Sturgeon got herself into a similar spot of bother a few years back, although in that case there was no alleged extremist connection.
Labour demanded her head. Salmond very robustly defended his Deputy. Sturgeon apologised and emerged stronger from the episode. Perhaps Corbyn should follow suit and Labour should take more care when demanding resignations in future. They can some back to bite.
Sturgeon apologises for fraudster letter | Scotland | News
news.stv.tv/scotland/159695-sturgeon-apologises-for-fraudster-letter/
Corbyn has a lot of previous which Sturgeon did not.
It's a rather direct prod that UKIP are in chaos and losing real elections, just before a referendum that might see their main aim come to fruition. Yet instead of giving positive arguments for leaving the EU, all we get is how beastly Cameron's stitching it up.
It's like UKIP has given up and are getting their excuses in early. They need a new leader, and fast. It'd been better if they'd got one in May after Farage's repeated failure, but even now someone competent could make a positive difference to their fortunes.
We can all judge the package when we have it. It will either be adequate or it will not. Kippers and Euro phobes alike would be making a much better use of their considerable energy by working up and agreeing alternatives to membership and making a positive case for them in the media and elsewhere. I, for one, am seriously interested in what that alternative might be because the present situation is unsatisfactory and it is unlikely that Cameron will be able to ensure we have adequate protections for our key industries in the future.
So we have the choice of an ok to bad deal in or a completely (as yet) undefined out. Get on with it. There is a case to be made and won here if you only stop the winging and do some positive work. But it is always easier just to carp.
Secondly, we're approaching the EU referendum and UKIP are losing ground. As I said above, if you want to leave the EU you might want to address the problems within your own party rather than just bitching about Cameron.
Sometimes I wonder if a fair few vocal UKIPpers don't actually want to leave the EU ...
Who knew?!
As the keenest fan of Farage on here, I'd have thought you'd want to spend a little time considering your position on his 'leadership'.
Eurosceptics want to leave regardless of reform, it's about democracy, sovereignty and the right to trade freely across the world.
It must be pointed out that if we stay the dynamic will change completely, that the path to ever closer union will become a reality. It's the responsibility of eurosceptics to point that out.
No it's ok I get it. You are not a conservative and everyone who mocks Cameron's negotiations is a bitter kipper, understood
Farages leadership has taken UKIP from 3% to 12.5% in the GE, won the euros, won a couple of seats in the H of C, improved vote in almost every seat and got us a referendum, so I am ok with it