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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Seven weeks to go before Iowa and Trump remains totally dom
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Seven weeks to go before Iowa and Trump remains totally dominant
Seven weeks tomorrow the first state to decide in next year’s White House Race will choose which of the Democratic and Republican Party hopefuls will be their choice as nominees.
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A Carson presidency I think could work well actually, sure he's not the usual candidate but he is interesting.
Trump worries me, but would be great for my betting if he can get the nomination
I think Chris Christie would have been a good president, but his bridge hit some troubled waters a while back...
It baffles me that anybody could see Trump as anything other than a loud mouthed clown.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/12036681/Who-said-it-Stop-the-War-Coalition-or-Isil.html
Real estate mogul and reality television star Donald Trump on Sunday tweeted a chart of racist and wildly inaccurate crime statistics, just a day after supporters physically assaulted a Black Lives Matter protester at one of his rallies.
http://huff.to/21ciD3j
That's something you'd expect from MikeK, not someone who might be President of the United States of America.
Whoever wins, we lose.
GRRM's description of the Machiavellian Littlefinger also comes to mind, "He would see this country burn if he could be king of the ashes". If nuking Iran, Syria and/or the Former Soviet Republic of Russia meant a second term for President Cruz I wouldn't trust him to refrain from pushing that button.
Rubio/Clinton wouldn't make much odds who wins.
A Cruz presidency would be fascinating.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/673849621957873665
Edit: There's something on the Guardian live blog, but it's unclear quite what it means.
This is a staggering map. Net worth of individual adults, by European country. This is private wealth, not GDP data https://t.co/XCGCS94RuL
Hard to think that the London Mayoral election has not played a disproportionately large part in this.
Cheers for that. Received.
I would extend one Heathrow runway but not increase capacity much and build runways at Gatwick and Stanstead. ... and let them all fight it out.
It is the last thing that could have scuppered this particular contingency.
http://www.wmur.com/politics/elections-panel-allows-cruz-rubio-to-appear-on-primary-ballot/36641254
Challengers offer USSC case law in support of their claim, Cruz offers two talking heads...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35027951
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35027559
Looks like appropriate concern for environmental impact issues fannying around until after the London Mayor election....
"can't make an instant decision to save his or anyone else's life"
"thoughtful"
I'd say Ted Cruz would be the one who would scare me the most.
Donald Trump, I suspect, is more of a pragmatist than most people realise. I suspect he would turn out to be a lot more moderate than most people expect.
I think Marco Rubio is by far the best candidate for the Republicans. I think he'd waltz to victory next November, and would be quite an effective President.
Do either Zak or Khan have an opinion on whether there should be an extra runway anywhere ?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-52062940.html?showcase=true&premiumA=true
6 bed mansion.
That'd be worth half a million anywhere in the UK. And probably alot more.
Possibly due to house prices?
Too true !....Khan will be handicapped by the Three stooges Corbyn Macdonnel and Livingstone ...he rose to victory in the Cornyn surge last summer and as the Corbyn ship sinks he will be pulled down in its vortex ...the Blairites will be happy to sacrifice Khan as a way to topple Corbyn from his perch
Furthermore , we Brits are a tolerant bunch with a pronounced sense of ''fair play ''but there are in fact limits to tolerance and electing a Muslim for Mayor after the London tube bombings , Tower Hamlets and the Paris massacre is clearly beyond the pale
Most folks are willing to go along with the charade of political correctness (against their better instincts) but NOT when their lives could be in danger ...London is the obvious target for a Paris-like massacre and as such sober minded folks will not be willing give Sadiq Khan the benefit of the doubt that he is the best candidate to protect them from radical Islam ; they simply will not take that risk no matter what the polls may say
31% of Londoners claimed they felt ''uncomfortable voting for a Muslim '' ( they were the ones who actually admitted it ) and that was BEFORE the Paris massacre ...you can be certain the real numbers are somewhat higher
Any polling of the London Mayor's race needs to be ''read between the lines ''
http://www.cityam.com/218067/sadiq-khan-we-need-better-heathrow-not-bigger-heathrow
I think Zac doesn't really like airports at all but particularly not Heathrow.
Clinton: 46.8%
Trump: 43.6%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
The high "wealth" countries are also the ones which have had housing booms. Therefore, there is a degree of risk associated with high asset prices at the same time as high debt loads.
I'd also note, that our numbers are boosted by the appearance of $750-1,200bn of assets of Russians in London. (This deducts from the Russian number and adds to ours.)
Heathrow is awful and 3 runways will surely only make it worse ?
(You can still buy a 700sq ft apartment in a nice part of Berlin for £100,000.)
Our hyper competitive property market drives prices ever upwards, especially in London.
Gatwick would also affect some areas of unspoilt countryside, which are scarce enough as it is in SE England.
Disclaimer: I live in Sussex, so I might not be entirely free of interest in this!
A family sized apartment (say 1,200 square feet; 120 square meters). In London, you'd be lucky to find something in a nice area (and I'm not talking Chelsea, where you'd be paying £2.5m) for less than £500,000.
In Germany, you'd be paying £150,000. And interest rates are near zero.
You can get one of those apartments for £500/month including principle repayment. Unbelievable.
However, I would note that the firm at which I work, has funds which have significant exposure to German residential property.
He never intended to be the nominee , he 's just an ego manic loving the limelight and attention ...the folks in the GOP will never allow this creep to ruin the best chance they have of not only winning the WH but the House and Senate too ...sooner or later he will push his luck too far and self destruct or they will find a way to get rid of him
Furthermore , America with its fascination with guns, does not suffer fools and demagogues lightly ...both Huey Long and George Wallace found that out ! Trump is an antagonistic rabble rouser who had best be careful what he is saying ...if some whack job takes a shot at him he will panic and then like most bullies he will fold
We're at the stage now where we should take it very seriously. Trump has sat at the top of the polling for long enough to demonstrate considerable resilience in the face of negative campaigning. What's surprising to me is how well Carson's held up, though his star does look to be on the wane.
It's far from sewn up though. Were the campaign calendar the same as last time, with Iowa in early January, it might be done and dusted but there's a lot of campaigning still to be done after the festivities. Even so, he ought to be a clear favourite.
http://www.nytimes.com/1991/03/29/opinion/why-i-m-for-the-brady-bill.html
My instinct is that Trump will simply scare too many moderate horses but if that is the case, why aren't the polls further apart now - it's not as if either is an unknown quantity. Very confusing.
Only a bloody fool would bet on Trump ...sometime in the future when Trump goes back to reality TV, the folks who have been spooked by his campaign will look positively daft
Nate Silver gives him about a 5% chance and he is being generous
Stranger things have happened. That horse becoming pope. Or Corbyn becoming Labour leader.
More seriously, I think Switzerland is a good compare for what we want our economy to be like. I'm not sure either Iceland or Norway - which are basically utterly dependent on primary industries - are that great comparisons.
http://www.thameslinkrailway.com/your-journey/thameslink-programme/
This is about twenty minutes quicker than you can get from Cambridge to Heathrow at the moment, and with no changes.
And, unlike Trump, he is genuinely rich.
Don't forget, Iowa is all about organisation. You need to have people corralling supporters. And the discussions and arguments can really count against someone who seems un-Presidential (see Howard Dean).
I would sell Trump in Iowa (with maybe a covering bet for the nomination).
Furthermore , Londoners like their mayors to be mavericks of sorts ; while Zac is no ''big personality ''like Boris ,he is still a maverick with his keen environmentalism that is sure to appeal to lots of young voters ...Khan , on the other hand , seems like a rather typical orthodox leftist MP
Like banking and houses?