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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy
After any betting event, successful or unsuccessful, it is important to take stock of what went wrong and what went right. This is especially important when expectations were completely upended, as happened on Thursday night in the Oldham West & Royton by-election.
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Crikey, been a long time since my last one
Fair enough, there was a lot of people telling us it was going to be a lot closer, but if you think something is 1/50 and it can be backed at 2/5, you have to admit to bad betting if you don't win big on the market
I was amazed to find myself as the only patient in the particular unit.
In my recent spell of dealing with the NHS, every problem I have encountered has been on the administrative side. Most of my contacts over this time have been initiated as a result of administrative inadequacies and organisation.
What process engineers used to love calling 're-work'.
Vikki Howells will be the Labour candidate in Cynon Valley.
The 2 CLPs were twinned for this selection (one man and one woman to be chosen).
Christine Chapman and Janice Gregory are retiring after serving on the Assembly since its creations in 1999.
Chapman had a 34.7% majority over Plaid in 2011. Gregory a 47.3% lead.
Boundaries for Assembly constituencies are identical to Westminster ones. Last may Labour had a 30.9% maj (over PC) in Cynon and a 37% maj (over Con) in Ogmore
All of those reports from Oldham were clearly wrong, that Reddit post, the Milifan girl, Ian Warren, etc.
group 1 - Labour till we die/we don't like the Tories/Labour always win here/we recognise that Labour bloke as an Oldham guy/Labour have the power locally to give us what we want locally
group 2 - Tory till we die/don't like Labour/that David Cameron is a nice bloke/that Margaret Thatcher had the right idea
group 3 - we're liberals and sod it, we're voting liberal
group 4 - we need to get back to nature and a non-materialist society
group 5 - we want to go back to the 1950s when we understood everything/don't like immigrants/hate the political class/that Nigel talks a lot of sense
group 6 - they're all as bad as each other and we can't be arsed
The feedback I was getting was that Labour were never in trouble of losing though it was a surprise that they got their best ever vote share in this and its predecessor seat in the 65 years of its existence .
Based on initial comments, it appears to relatively minor stuff thankfully.
http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/Significant-crowding-city-s-E/story-28299457-detail/story.html
We are one of the busiest A/E in the country, covering a big patch and not easy to divert patients as the next nearest dept is 30 miles away.
There are plans (our Emergency Dept is doubling in size next year and being built at the moment) and we also have a new paediatric ward being built. At present most planned surgery for children is cancelled as no beds.
Nonetheless it is difficult to cope when activity is up 10% in a year yet the budget is not.
Never mind the resultant suffering and deaths of patients.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3347807/How-crack-SAS-team-snared-Jihadi-John-DIY-DRONES-Troops-snuck-deep-inside-Raqqa-launched-1lb-helicopter-pin-point-British-executioner-calling-air-strike-wiped-out.html
Excellent by Alastair Meeks on the Oldham by-election and the calm down dear school of analysis http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/12/06/csi-oldham-the-by-election-autopsy/ …
I agree with Mr Rentoul - people pay not a fraction of a percent of attention to day-to-day politics that we do - (and why should they, when they need to pay attention, the majority do) - but gradually over time form impressions that are difficult to shift.....
......anyone spot any memes recently?
Want to retain our sovereignty
Want to control our borders
Do not want our laws to be made in Brussels
Want to increase social mobility
Do want to save £11 billion per year
Perhaps it is good for Labour to have the Kippers as the nominal challenger across much of the north.
UKIP made all the running and fought a narrow factional wrong headed campaign. It made no impression on labour despite all the talk of Farage popular meetings and their emphasis on immigration and Corbyn. Its got no appeal for labour despite its grand ideas and by overtly appealing to what it euphemistically calls the 'WWC' it offends more than it appeals to.
Marvelous photo's of Pluto. Now here's a planet fit for Corbyn and his Stop the War followers. It's peaceful, no wars, all is calm; all can live there according to his/her means. Of course they'd all be dead, but that matters not.
There are only so many cubicles in the existing ED, hence the new building site, but even then the main problem is hospital beds for admissions and difficulty discharging as not enough community support. There are several hundred more bed closures planned over the next five years.
Jeremy Corbyn accuses Govt of trying to stage “news blackout” to conceal NHS winter crisis. ''
When in trouble Labour's first port of call is 'NHS'
That allegation you've made could get Mike Smithson into trouble, please don't make that kind of allegation again. Thank you
Incidentally the idea of liberal Conservatism is not as many assume an oxymoron. There is a reason the conservative party of Australia for example is called the Liberal Party.
Assuming that Huw Davies MP wins, will he have to stand down as an MP, and thus a By-election?
Growing population is like inflation. Too fast a rate can cause problems but moderate growth is perfect. The opposite problem of a falling population like deflation is a far more serious problem. About 2-3% growth in the working age population, like inflation, is ideal.
The hard part is having the self awareness to determine which is which.
Mine For Nothing
Ultra left wing LSE student union fails to pass motion condemning Paris attacks
https://t.co/5AdfIMyw81
In this case it would be 4 years until the next election though. So a by-election is probably likely.
Half a dozen tweets in the last hour.....
We can be proud of our SAS though.
Sounds like a good plot for a movie.
I am more of a critic than a fan of Malthus. Human ingenuity trumps those concerns. Has done for hundreds of years and will continue to do so. Besides the global population level is stabilising already. There is no urgency as there is literally no real problem. We should help the third world develop and as it happens both their nations become more desirable to live in and their population growth rates fall to sustainable levels. This is being witnessed the world over.
Since being elected in May, Mr Boswell has criticised the Government for not doing more to clamp down on tax avoidance.
He said: “After finding myself previously employed in such a contract, I decided to utilise my knowledge and experience in my new role as an MP to highlight treasury management issues.”
Lib Dem peer Lord Purvis of Tweed said it was “shocking that wealthy people who have broad shoulders should think it’s acceptable to use such dodgy tax avoiding tactics”.
- See more at: https://www.politicshome.com/economy-and-work/articles/story/snp-mp-facing-accusations-tax-avoidance#sthash.PCjdK95p.dpuf
Lets see how 'zero' Sturgeon's 'zero tolerance' is......
Dont be fooled this time by talk of UKIP surge. They have a snowballs chance in hell of winning Ogmore.
Absolutely we should help the third world develop, and agricultural exports undoubtedly is part of that. However, to imagine that there is no problem would be unwise, I respectfully suggest
I can't help but feel that there is some official misinformation going on in this article.
Perhaps hiding a source already in Raqqa or maybe to get jihadists patrolling the scrubland around the city where they can be more easily picked off by drones or something.
Good piece, Mr. Meeks.
There are many, many problems in the world. Growing population in a world of fast falling birth rates is not the highest priority.
Princess Liz: Governor Corbyn, I should have expected to find you holding Livingstone's leash. I recognized your foul stench when I was brought onboard.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Charming to the last. You don't know how hard I found it, signing the order to terminate your political career.
Princess Liz: [sarcastically] I'm surprised you had the courage to take the responsibility yourself.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Princess Liz, before your deselection, you would like to invite you to be my guest at a ceremony that will make this progressive party operational. No Labour Stronghold will dare oppose the Corbynistas now.
Princess Liz: The more you tighten your grip, Corbyn, the more safe seats will slip through your fingers.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Not after we demonstrate the power of this policy. In a way, you have determined the choice of the constituency that is to be targeted first. Since you are reluctant to provide us with the location of the Rebel base, I have chosen to test our activists' destructive power on your home planet of Leicester.
Princess Liz: [shocked] No! Leicester is peaceful, we have no weapons. You can't possibly—
Grand Moff Corbyn: You would prefer another target, a military target? Then name the system! [stepping closer to Liz and pinning her against Darth Livingstone] I grow tired of asking this, so it will be the last time. Where is the Rebel base?
Princess Liz: [looks at view-screen showing Leicester for a moment, then, resigned] Derby. They're all on Derby.
Grand Moff Corbyn: There you see, Lord Livingstone? She can be reasonable. Proceed with the operation. You may fire when ready.
Princess Liz: [indignant] What?!
Grand Moff Corbyn: You're far too trusting. Derby is too remote to make an effective demonstration, but don't worry. We will deal with your rebel friends soon enough!
[Liz watches helplessly as Left-wing activists descend on Leicester]
In my mind, English politics (I now differentiate between the nations of the UK deliberately) is broadly split between those who are liberal and/or conservative on the one hand, and those who are illiberal and/or socialist on the other.
And this is where the Lib Dems fail for me - they are a ludicrous blend of socialism and liberalism, formed from the mess of the 1980s. True liberals should head over to the Conservatives, whilst true socialists should head over to Labour. The Lib Dem party should be put out of its misery.
And even after a strong El Nino we can say that the pause in global warming is still nearly 19 years and ongoing.
Meantime China is planning over 2000 coal power stations.
Ho hum
Much the same way some middle classes went ga-ga for biofuel. Which led to vast swathes of ancient, pristine forest in the islands of south Asia being cut down to make room for oil plantations.
Edited extra bit: feels a bit sad using 'liberal' in a pejorative sense.
I'm a liberal and a Conservative as I believe in individuals. I don't care if you are male or female, black or white, gay or straight, atheist or religious - you are not a label you are yourself and responsible for your own life and own actions as much as possible.
The LDs left seems to be collectivists claiming to be Liberal. Now that is the oxymoron.
As poverty continues to decline so will the birth rate, and each factor will become self reinforcing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZU81D6wZvw
To digress...
Modern culture - political and in many other areas - is all about labels, and becoming part of any number of collectives (this is all very apparent on social media, particularly Facebook). It makes things difficult for those of us who are true liberals, who don't partake in all this 'self-boxing' (I mean by that putting yourself in boxes - and in such a public way too) and want to make a cognitive political argument that doesn't pitch X v Y... the Left have it very easy (and this is why they thrive on social media) because they say "people in boxes G, N and P! look at what those nasty people in boxes M and Z are getting up to! boooo!" - whilst more complex arguments (and liberal/conservative philosophies are things which do take more time/thought to appreciate, despite their actual simplicity) are quickly drowned out. Try making a liberal/conservative argument on Facebook and you're just shouted down as a baby-eating Tory.
Thankfully, as Cameron wonderfully pointed out "Twitter and Britain: they're not the same thing!"
While I may disagree with you on poverty rates in Africa, On this I totally agree, To treat anybody as first belonging to a group and second an individual is not just perverse it is wrong.
I have a lot of admiration for the Liberal party or a centaury ago, but I fear that there is a lot of misunderstanding of the word liberal. (especially with some conservatives) and perhaps this has been become of the Liberal Democrats?
Attempting to abode confusing I sum times refer to myself as a 'Classical Liberal' A term used by Milton Freedman, but I'm not sure it will catch on?
In many African an mid east states the fertility rate is half or less of what it was in 1970. Stil high in many places, but dropping rapidly.
It'd be an interesting question which party he would fall into these days.
As a historical aside, I wonder whether the modern Conservative party would look and feel like today without the infusions of blood and ideas it got from the Liberal Unionists, and later the National Liberals (1930s edition).
Not the case. At all.
Lib Dems unite on human rights, internationalism, anti-authoritarianism, open government involving people in the decisions that affect them, and thinking and questioning everything, hating prejudice and privilege. We take the piss out of everything, including ourselves, and are prepared to put the work in to make a difference, No way would we fit in either Corbyn's or Blair's versions of the Labour party, or Cameron or Osborne or May's versions of the Tory party. If for no other reason than we just won't do as we're told - which is both a blessing and a curse. I'm willing to admit we may look odd to others, but we feel like a family, even if some of the family members are people we would rather have nothing to do with - they are still family.
As an aside, I like 'actress', because it gives both profession and gender. Also, shifting to 'actor' [the underused 'thespian' is already available for those wanting to be gender-neutral] puts the masculine form on a pedestal above the feminine form. Which is, ironically, somewhat sexist.
The Lib Dem way works brilliantly at the local level (as the party can mean a completely different thing in a different part of the country) and when fighting Parliamentary by-elections when the third party (and in opposition) but it all comes unstuck when you're actually in a position of government.
Won;t do what you're told?? Unless its the authoritarian EU doing the telling. of course. Then the lib dems are utterly supine.
Feels like a thunderstorm is brewing.
Unfortunately, although my original expectation was not too far out, I was also one of the many who got persuaded that UKIP were going to do a lot better, and Labour a lot worse, than initial expectations. That turned out to be nonsense. From a betting point of view, it's worth trying to understand what put us on a false trail.
Partly it was the media anecdotes, from all sides, which were fairly unrelenting and which all pointed in the same way. One should always be careful about such anecdotes, but in this case they seemed to corroborate each other. Next time, I'll be more cautious.
However, the main thing which persuaded me that it would be fairly close was the information from @election_data (Ian Warren), who is someone I know reasonably well on-line (though I've never met him). He is someone I respect for his analytical skills and he was in a position to have good knowledge of the Labour campaign.
Clearly, in retrospect, I was wrong to be so persuaded, but one can only go with the information one has. I thought I was being careful and basing my view, as far as is possible in a by-election with no opinion polls, on reasonably sound data, but that turned out to be wrong.
Looking back, I can't really see any warning signs that would have made one doubt the narrative that Labour were in at least some trouble - can anyone point to any?
http://img.deseretnews.com/images/g/midres/1/web-1535574.jpg
Fortunately the internet means they can't get away with that anymore, as everyone can see what they're're up to.
Thank you for going to the trouble of trying to explain what it is to be a LibDem nowadays. The things you list are not just laudable but things I fully support. (though I'm not quite shore what you mean by Internanalisum, but if its free trade and voluntary cooperation to achieve shared objectives I agree on that to)
I just not see why you could not join us in the liberal wing of the conservative party, we are bigger than you probably think and growing.
but please don't take that invitation as anything but and offer, the last thing I want to do is fall out with people who's politics I essentially agree with, there will be times when we can work together on important matters, which ever party we are in.
My MP did say last week that, having been to Oldham, he thought the reports of masses of Labour voters defecting were nonsense, but that the rationale for thinking it would be close were worries about whether many Labour voters would really turn out on a wet December day, and fears that Tories would tactically transfer to UKIP.
UKIP 5/2 to win a seat with a 25% Muslim population, that has voted for a left wing Labour MP for 30 odd years... tsk tsk tsk why aren't we all rich off the back of laying that???
I am so disciplined in ignoring rumour and anecdote in my football betting, cant believe I was swayed here (although I was still offering UKIP at best price the whole time on here and laid a fiver!)