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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The date of the next Labour leadership election betting

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    What's your thinking re Wales being more positive for Labour? Several here think that with Wales trending rightwards for a while, Labour will probably lose control of the Assembly. I've no idea myself.

    *cough Ms Plato* :smiley:

    Welcome to PB Mr @LukeInLondon

    Thank you Mr Plato_Says!
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    chestnut said:

    taffys said:

    ''Owen Smith makes Labour's case for limitless, welfare supported, reproduction.
    Targetting the Mick Philpott demographic, and the good people of East London and Birmingham.''

    I think Oldham shows that voters are quite understandably not really watching labour at the moment. They are not in government and probably won't be for four years.


    Oldham is Labour's prime demographic.

    The Tories sat home. If they'd participated with the same vigour as Labour and UKIP we would be wondering why Corbyn got the same vote share as "Miliband in May", which sounds like the title of some bathroom lavender product.
    But, but, but Tories are civic minded folk that take their democratic responsibilities seriously while Labour non-voters sit at home with their dole-funded flat screens and packs of supermarket strong lager.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2015
    2016 @ 3/1 looks like a reasonable value bet, although I wouldn't put the odds below 6/4.

    Labour may well perform ok in May - Sadiq Khan is more likely than not to win in London and - even with a poor performance elsewhere - Khan's victory will probably be enough to keep the Corbynites' faith.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Indigo said:

    I always enjoy the lefty idiots who think that japan was waging a war of liberation from colonial oppression in WWII. The look on their faces when you pull up some quotes from the Japanese military on the subject of the master race is generally quite entertaining. A couple of pictures of how they greeted their fellow East Asians is also good for a laugh.

    The number of civilians killed by the Japanese in the Philippines, Burma, Korea and China during WW2, including infamously the order from Hirohito himself, directed Japanese forces to "Kill All, Burn All, and Loot All." is at least comparable to that carried out by the Nazis. They also carried out comparable levels of human experimentation to that done in the death camps, including hideous experiments of frostbite and biological warfare (include plague). Almost 600,000 people were killed by the Imperial Japanese Army purely from germ warfare experimentation.
    I tried reading an account of the Sack of Nanking, and had to give up, it was so horrible.

    European rule in East Asia could be deplorable, but I think you'll get a pretty harsh response from the locals if you describe the Japanese as liberators.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    ....and now to watch some snooker. :p
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,972
    Sean_F said:

    Indigo said:

    I always enjoy the lefty idiots who think that japan was waging a war of liberation from colonial oppression in WWII. The look on their faces when you pull up some quotes from the Japanese military on the subject of the master race is generally quite entertaining. A couple of pictures of how they greeted their fellow East Asians is also good for a laugh.

    The number of civilians killed by the Japanese in the Philippines, Burma, Korea and China during WW2, including infamously the order from Hirohito himself, directed Japanese forces to "Kill All, Burn All, and Loot All." is at least comparable to that carried out by the Nazis. They also carried out comparable levels of human experimentation to that done in the death camps, including hideous experiments of frostbite and biological warfare (include plague). Almost 600,000 people were killed by the Imperial Japanese Army purely from germ warfare experimentation.
    I tried reading an account of the Sack of Nanking, and had to give up, it was so horrible.

    European rule in East Asia could be deplorable, but I think you'll get a pretty harsh response from the locals if you describe the Japanese as liberators.
    In nearly every case, the local liberation types ended up fighting the Japanese in concert with the evil colonial overlords. Usually within 6 months of receiving Japnese hospitality.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2015

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There was a toast to the man on whom so much of our hopes for future success depends at the Conservative Christmas lunch yesterday.

    It was quite well done and funny but as I have made clear here several times I think Corbyn is not only very bad for Labour but bad for the country.

    Yesterday, despite the appalling weather, we also had a Socialist Worker group campaigning with a loudspeaker in Dundee City centre. Listening to them gives an insight to both Corbyn and those who support him. They were campaigning against bombing in Syria. According to them there is no problem in the world that Britain can't make worse, no action that Britain can take that isn't shameful, nothing bad that happens which is not our fault and nothing in our history which is not a disgrace. Yes ISIS are evil but we are so soaked in hypocrisy and self serving imperialist arrogance that we are at least as bad and we should stay away.

    It is a view of our country that has a certain resonance with a small but very motivated part of our society. Yesterday was no day for feint hearts. I don't think it is the view of the vast majority of us but it seemed to me to summarise the Corbyn mindset all too well. It is also miles from the traditional view of the Labour party. Are the majority of that party no longer proud of their country, convinced it can be a force for good in the world and willing to stand up for our shared values? I find that very hard to believe.

    Who "shares" these values? Devout Muslims don't - they've been fighting Western culture for the whole time that Islam has existed as a devotional practice.
    The vast majority of this country does. We believe in equality for women, human rights, the rule of law, freedom of expression and looking after the disadvantaged of the society. Those who do believe in these values need to stand up for them not just in the UK but elsewhere in the world and that means opposing those who treat so many of their fellow humans with contempt.
    Well put, but I'm not sure we need human rights and the rule of law, if the judiciary is firm enough the grey area of human rights becomes moot.

    Hey Blackburn,

    I was hoping to catch you - Just checking if you received my vanilla message on friday re; our OW&S bet?
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    What's your thinking re Wales being more positive for Labour? Several here think that with Wales trending rightwards for a while, Labour will probably lose control of the Assembly. I've no idea myself.

    I think that a large part of the right-wing drift has been a more temporary anti-incumbency effect to Labour in the assembly, and this will be offset by anti-incumbency feeling to the Conservatives at Westminster.

    Wales has also a long organised union history, which will be reinvigorated by Corbyn's win. It is also a poor part of the UK, with lots of people on tax credits, and many working in the public sector. Neither group will be enthused by the Conservatives' recent policies.

    *cough Ms Plato* :smiley:

    I am very sorry! I should not have assumed!

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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    So many of us have cat pictures as avatars - we all look alike :wink:

    What's your thinking re Wales being more positive for Labour? Several here think that with Wales trending rightwards for a while, Labour will probably lose control of the Assembly. I've no idea myself.

    I think that a large part of the right-wing drift has been a more temporary anti-incumbency effect to Labour in the assembly, and this will be offset by anti-incumbency feeling to the Conservatives at Westminster.

    Wales has also a long organised union history, which will be reinvigorated by Corbyn's win. It is also a poor part of the UK, with lots of people on tax credits, and many working in the public sector. Neither group will be enthused by the Conservatives' recent policies.

    *cough Ms Plato* :smiley:

    I am very sorry! I should not have assumed!

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    What's your thinking re Wales being more positive for Labour? Several here think that with Wales trending rightwards for a while, Labour will probably lose control of the Assembly. I've no idea myself.

    I think that a large part of the right-wing drift has been a more temporary anti-incumbency effect to Labour in the assembly, and this will be offset by anti-incumbency feeling to the Conservatives at Westminster.

    Wales has also a long organised union history, which will be reinvigorated by Corbyn's win. It is also a poor part of the UK, with lots of people on tax credits, and many working in the public sector. Neither group will be enthused by the Conservatives' recent policies.

    *cough Ms Plato* :smiley:

    I am very sorry! I should not have assumed!

    I think UKIP will get into the Assembly and cost Labour their majority, although they can govern easily enough with Plaid.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,432
    edited December 2015

    Sean_F said:

    Indigo said:

    I always enjoy the lefty idiots who think that japan was waging a war of liberation from colonial oppression in WWII. The look on their faces when you pull up some quotes from the Japanese military on the subject of the master race is generally quite entertaining. A couple of pictures of how they greeted their fellow East Asians is also good for a laugh.

    The number of civilians killed by the Japanese in the Philippines, Burma, Korea and China during WW2, including infamously the order from Hirohito himself, directed Japanese forces to "Kill All, Burn All, and Loot All." is at least comparable to that carried out by the Nazis. They also carried out comparable levels of human experimentation to that done in the death camps, including hideous experiments of frostbite and biological warfare (include plague). Almost 600,000 people were killed by the Imperial Japanese Army purely from germ warfare experimentation.
    I tried reading an account of the Sack of Nanking, and had to give up, it was so horrible.

    European rule in East Asia could be deplorable, but I think you'll get a pretty harsh response from the locals if you describe the Japanese as liberators.
    In nearly every case, the local liberation types ended up fighting the Japanese in concert with the evil colonial overlords. Usually within 6 months of receiving Japnese hospitality.
    Otoh in 1945 the British were content to use re-armed Japanese troops to help France to take back its place as the colonial power in Vietnam. I guess they called it realpolitik..
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Umm

    Politics Home
    Jeremy Corbyn accuses Govt of trying to stage “news blackout” to conceal NHS winter crisis. https://t.co/LY89txcg5I https://t.co/dHPRqmAub6
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    New Thread New Thread

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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    What's your thinking re Wales being more positive for Labour? Several here think that with Wales trending rightwards for a while, Labour will probably lose control of the Assembly. I've no idea myself.

    *cough Ms Plato* :smiley:

    Welcome to PB Mr @LukeInLondon

    Thank you Mr Plato_Says!
    I have no special knowledge of wales, So looking at GE results, the most likely probability I think: LD down a lot, Lab down a bit, Con up a bit, UKIP up a lot.

    The attention will possibly be on LibDem down and UKIP up, but the more impotent underling trend of Lab down and Con up is probably more impotent.

    Anyway that's speculation are there any Assembly poles, that anybody could link to?
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