Paddy Power have a market up on the date of the next Labour leadership election. I quite like this market because most of the other markets on the Labour leadership are about when Jeremy Corbyn ceases to be Labour leader, this market allows for an unsuccessful attempt to remove to Corbyn.
Comments
If not for this, their obvious play would just be to sit tight and wait for Corbyn to lose elections, then make their move once they've got some concrete evidence to take to the membership. (If he's not going to lose elections they may as well just suck it up and get with the program.)
We know that there's potentially an effect on the make-up of the membership, as centrists wander off and lefties join up. On the other hand, a lot of the people who joined just to vote for Corbyn will probably fail to renew.
There's been a bit of talk about deselections, but short of removing the whip from sitting MPs, is there even anything to deselect people from this far out from an election?
Is there anything else that is going to force the moderates to make their move sooner rather than later?
2016 looks best to me. The PLP is in open revolt, and the Scottish, Welsh , London and Local elections next year. Behind the Tories in Scotland might do it. It may well be an unsuccessful bid but surely someone will stand and get 35 nominees to trigger the election.
PP also has 200/1 on Chelsea for relegation. Considering their position that is surely value!
Corbyn, a teetotal non smoker who is probably at or below his target weight has plenty more miles left in him, god willing....
http://tinyurl.com/hufd6tn
Does that include SNP MPs?
56
55
54
53?
Any new potential leader needs to be able to persuade the membership that winning elections is more important than 'purity' of policy. Given the hyperbole and nastiness from the membership towards moderates, it seems they are not willing to listen to that message. And that message is now much harder to sell because of the OW&R win.
At the moment there will only be a leadership election if Corbyn wants one, and candidates will be selected by the people surrounding Corbyn.
That's the madness that resides at the heart of the Labour Party.
Whether the selectorate can come to their senses is unknown of course. Who can have a Kinnock Militant moment when the new entryists are behind the leader?
On the feast of polling
Alternate votes laid round about
Deep and crisp and counted...
This is how pb works, continually point out the failings of the opposition to cover up one's own party's failings. Cameron is in an awful mess on so many levels and the Tories are skilfully deflecting it towards Corbyn. Good for them, you could argue, it's called politics, but it leads to poor governance.
The prophesy hints at three PB wise men travelling to Harpenden to seek the site messiah or a very naughty boy.
1. A bald man from the north, bearing a toupee of golden hair made in Bedford.
2. A Manchester man in red shoes of no sense bearing frankincense.
3. A Hersham man travelling aimlessly by train carrying myrrh.
And in Harpenden a AV thread will be born and all will praise it.
You too may be a wise man.
I seldom see issues such as Heathrow discussed on here, I do see lots of nose thumbing and tub thumping over nothing.
You must be joking! There's been much discussion about the various options, and particularly the political aspects of it for the mayoralty. The reason it's not been discussed much recently is that there's not been much news on it.
But if you want, I could start talking about HS2. If you're really good, I might write an HS2 Christmas carol ...
I agree that 2020 is likeliest. The PLP are damned fools. They put Corbyn onto the ballot despite not supporting him, and now they're paying for their idiocy (alas, so is the country).
AV is the very thing!
From FPTP we have resiled
PB Tories not reconciled
Joyful, see the LibDems rise
Double digits no surprise
With Momentum far too plain
Labour unelectable again
Hark! The voting tellers sing
AV is the very thing!
That's easy. I'd just recode his ELIZA to be an English gent, rather than a grizzly Scot.
The gist was:
- to vote with your conscience, free votes must be allowed
- when your Sh Cab vote with theirs and don't agree with yours, your team isn't acting collectively
- therefore they must be replaced with those who do agree with you
- deselect/replace the others who also disagree with you to ensure Party unity
It's got a certain elegance to it. This appears to be exactly the thinking Comrade Corbyn is following. You end up with a one-note Party - but at least they'll be loyal and sing the same version of The Internationale.
Looking at the fixtures though, I think we have a reasonable chance of still being top at Christmas, but I think more likely that Arsenal will be top, and us in second place.
Not because he doesn't want to be but because he doesn't need to be. He'll leave the Labour party remade in his image with a younger Corbyn acolyte in place.
That is his aim. Control the levers of power, eradicate the thought-crimers, step down and bask in the reflected adulation of the grateful masses. Perhaps the odd statue or two?
The Polling stations are open!
In France this morning. First round of regional elections, the first electoral challenge since the Paris attacks, which killed 130 people.
All eyes on how the Front Nationale will do.
Last local elections in France, earlier this year, they came second in the first round, scoring in the mid 20s. But they did appallingly in the second, ending up with just 2% of the seats. The big question-to me- is whether they have become less transfer unfriendly.
https://twitter.com/busybuk/status/673419124001873920
http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/16_Nov.pdf
But, FN could well win Pas de Calais and Provence.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/11/28/so-what-happened-to-the-long-term-plan-george/
I understand Sadiq Khan is against, wrongly. Zac will resign and get re-elected on this "proving" how principled he is. Unfortunately, McDonnell has a Heathrow seat.
Tories have a few problems like Putney. But Labour should see the jobs side of things. 40000 extra jobs ? I am not sure why McDonnell is against.
Begs the question: why did you vote for them just a few months back ?
Gatwick, like Boris Island, can serve South and East London well and Sussex but Heathrow is better located for the rest of the country.
Heathrow is badly located as an airport in terms of fly path and noise but superb as a catchment area for travellers.
I have little sympathy regarding noise. Anyone buying a house in the fly path knew where Heathrow is situated since 1946 ! Plus planes are a lot quieter now and will be even more so in the future.
We also have double glazing today !
It was quite well done and funny but as I have made clear here several times I think Corbyn is not only very bad for Labour but bad for the country.
Yesterday, despite the appalling weather, we also had a Socialist Worker group campaigning with a loudspeaker in Dundee City centre. Listening to them gives an insight to both Corbyn and those who support him. They were campaigning against bombing in Syria. According to them there is no problem in the world that Britain can't make worse, no action that Britain can take that isn't shameful, nothing bad that happens which is not our fault and nothing in our history which is not a disgrace. Yes ISIS are evil but we are so soaked in hypocrisy and self serving imperialist arrogance that we are at least as bad and we should stay away.
It is a view of our country that has a certain resonance with a small but very motivated part of our society. Yesterday was no day for feint hearts. I don't think it is the view of the vast majority of us but it seemed to me to summarise the Corbyn mindset all too well. It is also miles from the traditional view of the Labour party. Are the majority of that party no longer proud of their country, convinced it can be a force for good in the world and willing to stand up for our shared values? I find that very hard to believe.
https://twitter.com/BanTheBBC/status/673435211217014784
When I ask a question about jobs and get an answer about noise I know that the respondent is clueless. Do you work for an airline - or, indeed, for Heathrow (I'd expect them to have put at least one stooge on here)?
Edited extra bit: Miss Plato, the notorious terrorist leader of the Al-Qat Brigade is not to be trifled with.
But for the moment we have the likes of Mao.
Edited extra bit: Miss Plato, that's a small slice of tyranny. If school budgets are so tight, they could save funds by not having employees monitored online in case they exhibit dangerously non-conformist humour.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/school-dinner-lady-sacked-after-6961217
As for employers monitoring social media, why not, it's effectively a public space?
And then you think - nah, these same muppets put Corbyn on the ballot paper. If they could so badly misread the mood of their own membership - and the potential three-quidder membership - then I really don't want them running my country. If they took on "aw, bless..." attitude towards Corbyn, they would almost certainly have taken pity on a wave of a million "Syrian refugees". With similar unintended consequences...
McDonnell I have had death threats.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-allies-accuse-mps-of-spreading-lies-about-labour-leaders-health-a6762041.html
In both cases the details are vague but they are victims.
Though if appearance is anything to go by, Jeremy does look as if he should take off on a nice holiday for a few months.
Transferrable Vote
Were battling for the minds
of the Electorate
But MPs in their palace
Want to keep their trough
And wouldnt let things change
They never got enough
They came up with arguments
like Strong Government
But all they did was defend
voting that was bent
I think The Papers of Tony Veitch, his second Laidlaw book, was his masterpiece. I remember his description of a train station waiting room, "a receptacle for wasted time". His descriptions of Glasgow and indeed the culture of his youth where the word and debate was as encouraged as much as the fist may have been nostalgic but they highlighted something lost in Scotland and probably most other places; a love of education, of debate and a deep compassion for his fellow man.
RIP.
They really do treat us like idiots
Human rights, properly construed, are an essential part of that. It is their perversion into a means of control both in what can be done and said that has made them controversial. If you want to see what life is like without human rights look at Raqqa and the benighted people who live there.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35018789
"Police were called to reports of people being attacked at Leytonstone around 19:00 GMT on Saturday. The knifeman reportedly shouted "this is for Syria"."
Edited extra bit: blah, should've paid more attention. The post was updated a few minutes ago, so I thought this had occurred today. My mistake.
It is easy to describe this in the abstract and much more difficult to apply it in practice but the limitations on freedom of speech and expression over the last 20 years have had negative consequences for the cohesion and vigour of our society.
There’s a cunning fat stunt called Batman / who collects more cash than the VATman / takes kids off the streets /but shows no receipts / that cunning old stunt called Batman
In terms of Muslim population, they are a non-entity. When you add up the heavyweight giants: Indonesia 210m, Pakistan 190m, India 190m, Bangladesh 160m. Note: none of these countries are from the Middle East. Turkey, Iran and Egypt are less than half of the above.
Daesh is puny ! They want to get the accolade of being "I.S." We should not give it to them.