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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If as is likely the Tories can’t win in Oldham then the best outcome for the blues is a LAB hold
A week today I’ll be at a wedding of a friend who’s been associated and helped PB for years so probably won’t be that much focused on the outcome, due overnight, of the Oldham West and Royton by-election.
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Edit: three in two days. Not bad going.
Agree a narrow Labour win is best for the blues. A win by a few percent would send chills through many Labour MPs, yet the delusional Corbynistas would claim it validates his leadership.
Like Labour.
The point about UKIP is much stronger. But even that might not work out that badly for them. If UKIP sense more weakness in the Labour heartlands, they may well tack left economically. That would suit the Conservatives fairly well, allowing them to strengthen their position with economically dry-as-dust Eurosceptics.
So if I were a Conservative, I don't think I'd care too much who wins on Thursday. The opposition are going to be closed for refurbishment for the foreseeable future either way.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-fails-convince-public-6914446
If they can't win a seat like Oldham in these circumstances when exactly can they expect to win it?
As with Heywood and Middleton, close but no cigar isn't the prelude of anything.
There isn't!
As posted an hour ago - plenty of scope for Corbyn to get a boost from this.
I don't think the structure and the set up of the party is conducive to being a realistic alternative to the Conservatives.
So this process - and it may take 5 years - could be the process of Labour being replaced by a much better opposition (I think the LibDems could have done in 2010 but didn't manage to carve out a true position for themselves and are now a busted flush).
UKIP are cut adrift economically.
And Farage is as usual playing politics himself with security. He says he would do nothing about ISIS, certainly not bomb them.
First nominate from the PLP?
Secondly vote for in the membership?
McDonnell carries the same (or worse) level of baggage as Corbyn.
Personally Dave's done a brilliant job in Scotland, when he became leader the Tories had forty fewer seats in Scotland than Labour, now the Tories have as many Scottish seats as Labour, a tribute to his leadership
Right I'm off, I going to watch Bridge of Spies.
Fact is that Labour will dump Corbyn when they are ready to accept that he's not the answer. A by-election loss is unlikely to persuade many undecideds on that score (because there aren't many), and unlikely to switch many from the pro- to anti-Corbyn. It will reconfirm what the antis believe but for now, what is that worth.
There is, as an aside, a counter-case to be made that a UKIP breakthrough in seats like Oldham would be ideal for the Tories: it would concentrate both Labour and UKIP fire on each other while giving a clearer ride for the Blues, as well as splitting the anti-Tory WWC vote. It's not a case I'd push too far but nor is it one I'd dismiss out of hand.
Some people are born ditherers or more concerned with the fate of Lady C on I'm A Celebrity
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/united_kingdom/targets/ukip
As to the Survation poll here are some of the details:
"The UK should join forces with the US, French or any other forces and begin airstrikes against ISIS in Syria now":
Agree 48%
Disagree 30%
D/K 22%
Agree/Disagree, by 2015 party vote:
CON 68/15
UKIP 51/35
LD 46/32
LAB 44/35
That is very different from yougov a couple of days ago, as I said Corbyn shifted the numbers more to his favour yesterday.
Flightpath, FPT re driving times etc to Oldham.
At that point the driver will be getting very close to needing to take the rest of his break.
8.15 is an insane time to be leaving central London.
To make this trip worthwhile they really should be on their way by not long after 6
Going by the Election Polling list, I make that over 80 Labour seats with smaller swings required. Were UKIP to pull it off, we'd have to take seriously the risk that Labour could finish third or even fourth in seats in 2020. It'd still be an outside shot at this stage but no longer laughable.
https://twitter.com/MockLabour/status/670303172800417792
Stephen Bush said earlier on this week only 50 odd Lab MPs with larger majorities than Oldham West and Royton so it would be a sensational result if they got within 2,000 votes of Labour
At best, from my calculations we're looking at 3.5hrs - that's with a fair wind, a short pee/sandwich buying break en route, no fannying about once they arrive and door knocking until a few mins before curry time.
It's could be described as virtue-canvassing - barely enough time to get wet, but they'll have bragging rights for the cause
2000 votes doesn't sound impressive in a low turnout election.
p.s. I'll be amazed if UKIP *don't* come within 2000 votes of winning - turnout will help there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2wmKcBm4Ik
Sounds like a magnetic mine to me, They were fearsome bastards.
And for you @Plato, my new avatar is like the old: The delightfully saucy, Maisie Williams.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/10649567/US-investigates-illegal-military-equipment-shipments-from-Israel-to-Iran.html
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/why-are-so-many-israelis-arrested-over-illegal-arms-deals-worldwide-1.299308
etc, etc.
Just heard Peter Hitchens opine on the Syrian airstrikes issue. Not a man with whom I usually agree but his viewpoint is very close to Simon Jenkins who I do rate as a columnist and thinker.
Yet they are both saying no more than Corbyn did in his infamous letter yesterday. We are still left with a lot of difficult questions which Cameron cannot or will not answer. The two tenets of the Hitchens/Jenkins line seem to be:
1) Attacking IS is pointless. We are no more or less a target for them than we were before the Paris attack. The French, Russians and Americans have flown thousands of sorties without (it seems) making much difference to the capability of IS to wage war. The only thing which seems to be slowing IS is the advance of Iranian and Hezbollah forces from the Assad heartland eastward.
History shows us air power on its own cannot achieve the desired outcome. It will ultimately require the liberation of the ground currently occupied by IS and whether that's done by British, French, American, Russian or Iranian troops is less important. Without the option of ground troops, the defeat of IS becomes problematic at best. Ground troops mean casualties and casualties will cause Cameron and his Government political problems.
2) Where is the comprehensive post-IS political settlement in both Syria and Iraq? What's the point of destroying IS in order to let anarchy take its place - yes, that anarchy may not be directed at us but it will still leave an important part of the world in turmoil. Whether we opt for Assad (and we seem comfortable with Sisi in Egypt who is pretty authoritarian) or not, the Syrian people deserve the chance for peace and stability (as do the Iraqi and Libyan people).
I would add we are fighting an undeclared war on two fronts and arguably losing both. At home, whether we like it or not, a not wholly insignificant minority of Muslims support IS. That will take time to reduce and eradicate and the will, if not the means, to spread terror will exist for some time to come. That cultural war is much harder and much less telegenic but no less important.
EDIT: Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition has no considered view on the use of British Forces in combat against our enemies...
(Getting weapons and materials over is a different matter)
If you want to use the yougov poll then use it in full or not at all:
"while among Labour voters generally, support for air strikes runs at almost two-to-one."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/11/24/analysis-corbynistas-stay-loyal-few-others-share-h/
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/h15sm4vwaa/TimesResults_151123_LabourMembers.pdf
All (Survation in parenthesis)
Approve 58 (49)
Disapprove 22 (30)
2015 LAB
Approve 49 (44)
Disapprove 29 (35)
LAB members
Approve 28
Disapprove 58
So the numbers have sifted to Corbyn since that poll, among Labour voters and especially the wider public (Survation didn't poll Labour members so nothing to compare there).
You need to prioritize things by levels of effectiveness on the ISIS threat to Britain.
Bombing Syria: effectiveness 0
Ground invasion by the west: effectiveness limited
Proper Border controls: effectiveness substantial
Ground invasion by Kurds, Syrians, Iraqis, Iranians: effectiveness very severe
In that general election Labour was fighting another one of its internal feuds between right and left, but the party had an army of new activists who had joined to fight Thatcher and we slogged our guts out to get Michael elected.
He was returned with 46% of the vote, which the old guard told us was a disaster, that was all due to out failure to select Charlie Morris!
32 years later, Labour has a candidate who is not only local to the area, but is well respected in it. People know that he is the local lad who left school at 16, was a father in his early twenties and worked two jobs to put the corn on the table for his family. The fact that Labour is once again engaged in a bout of internal blood-letting is neither here nor there.
So what's the best bet on an outcome? Well, turnout will be low as this is a by-election, and Oldham is cold, wet and miserable enough to encourage people to stay at home, nice and warm. Let's be honest, Labour people have a habit of being disengaged from politics, anyway, especially at by-elections. It takes a general election to get enough of them out to vote, since it needs that background noise to remind them to vote. UKIP's voters will turn out since minor party people tend to be more engaged than others. So the Labour majority will be cut on the back of a very low turnout, which will probably be under 50%.
Labour is still odds-on to win.
Saturday's Independent front page
Labour MPs break cover and call for Corbyn to go
http://www.the-saleroom.com/en-gb/auction-catalogues/burstow-and-hewett/catalogue-id-srburs10079/lot-b7406ba8-eb72-435c-96ff-a53200ec143b
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/local-by-elections/oldham-west-royton-by-election/221137036/
I never heard Scott Walker's version of Brel. I had a PA who played him all the time A bit sentimental but a perfect choice for Paris today.
ScottP.
Marina Hyde is far and away the funniest female journalist I've read. The only black mark is that she had an extended relationship with Piers Morgan
* a UKIP win
* on low turnout
with
* the LibDems holding their deposit
My biggest bets are on turnout. I'm confident the Momentum bus trip to OW&R will help suppress the natural Labour vote.
Amongst Labour voters in 2015 it is Burnham 21%, Cooper 14%, Umunna 9%, Jarvis 9%, Benn 4%, David Miliband 4%, Alan Johnson 3%, Keir Starmer 3%, Liz Kendall 3%, Tom Watson 3%, Stella Creasey 2%, Angela Eagle 1%.
Amongst full party members it is Burnham 21%, Cooper 15%, Jarvis 10%, Umunna 8%, Benn 5%, Alan Johnson 4%, David Miliband 3%, Keith Starmer 3%, Liz Kendall 3%, Tom Watson 2%, Stella Creasey 2%, Angela Eagle 1%. (Amongst those who voted for Corbyn Jarvis is preferred followed by Benn; among those who voted for Cooper it is Yvette again followed by Jarvis; amonst those who voted for Burnham it is Andy again followed by Chuka Umunna; amongst those who voted for Liz Kendall Chuka Umunna is now their preferred choice followed by Dan Jarvis with Liz only third)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/h15sm4vwaa/TimesResults_151123_LabourMembers.pdf (p7)
*UKIP win
Lib Dems get slaughtered.
Poor turnout.
Labour decides to stumble on with Corbyn to 2020, whreupon they ditch Corbyn just before the election for Hilary Benn
It's strange no one on here wants to talk about the Conservatives who won't back our leader and are obsessing about the Labour MPs who won't back theirs.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/670343752159002624
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2015/11/could-labours-rule-book-be-used-keep-jeremy-corbyn-leadership-ballot
Labour MPs would be nuts if they wanted to get a coup caught up in a legal fight, regardless of who is actually right.
President Hollande asks for our help..
Labour sticking to the old adage....A friend in need is a friend who is a pain in the a**e.
FWIW- and despite all my lefty, liberal misgivings which I have shared on this site- and there are many- my inclination is to bomb the Jihadi, Isis dickwads and lets suffer the consequences. I don't think it'll help, but bombing those Islamist nobheads somehow makes me feel better.