''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.
I think backstory is overrated though perhaps the Conservative membership will go for it. Saying "My dad was a bus driver" doesn't really get you anything.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.
I think backstory is overrated though perhaps the Conservative membership will go for it. Saying "My dad was a bus driver" doesn't really get you anything.
Well it got Sadiq Khan the London Mayoral Nomination... ;-)
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
The press you cite follow their own bile against Salmond and the NATS which is why next to no-one reads them bar you.
You claimed the services war graves reception advertised in the parliamentary bulletin was an evening one. It wasn't. It was straight after decision time at 5pm but only one (ex Presiding Officer Ferguson) non SNP MSP turned up. No Ruthy Davidson, or Dugdale or Rennie. They all went home for tea rather than walk 50 yards to honour the war dead.
The press you cite won't report that of course but that doesn't excuse you changing the time of an event to try and make an anti Salmond point!
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
Here's a question. Does anyone know anyone in real life who is a really nice person, but nearly all of their friends are deeply unpleasant people?
One might have to admit to being one of those 'friends'..
Indeed. I did think that as I wrote it so I put it as 'know' rather than 'has a friend who is'. In my experience in most groups of friends there is usually one who is an obvious arsehole but everyone tolerates them because they've known them for years. Not sure I've ever come across it the other way round.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Morgan !? Wet as a haddock's bathing suit. She got the job because Cam wanted someone with ovaries that could be successfully house-trained at the DoE and not cause waves with the teachers.
Polls show Labour could lose Oldham West and Royton to UKIP next Thursday but Mr Corbyn will now stay in London after his shadow cabinet threatened to resign on masse because he said the party would take a 'collective decision' over Syria.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
''Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.''
Personally, I'd prefer it if the conservative party was led by a conservative, as opposed to a closet socialist.
As you say though, it won;t be a nonentity. A clear, intelligent, unashamed, passionate right wing conservative voice might emerge from the EU in/out campaign.
One already exists, Michael Gove. But it won;t be him.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
Amber Rudd, obvs.
Precisely. How on earth she has been completely missed - to the extent that there aren't even odds quoted on her, despite the fact that she's a cabinet minister and an Osborne protegé - is baffling.
Of course there is the little problemette that Hastings & Rye is not the safest of seats. But with boundary changes, that could be finessed.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
there must be fair chance of Corbyn resigning by next week, it can't carry on like this for Labour, they will just implode
I'm not so sure. Labour backbenchers were spineless against Brown, and not much better against Miliband. I'd expect them to cave in before Corbyn finishes his changes to Labour's structures.
And don't underestimate the fact that Corbyn's views do resonate with a proportion of the public. It's a small proportion, and nowhere near enough to get a majority, but they've been ignored for thirty years and they're hungry.
Unfortunately they're too busy attacking their opponents within the party than the Conservatives.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
Amber Rudd, obvs.
Precisely. How on earth she has been completely missed - to the extent that there aren't even odds quoted on her, despite the fact that she's a cabinet minister and an Osborne protegé - is baffling.
Of course there is the little problemette that Hastings & Rye is not the safest of seats. But with boundary changes, that could be finessed.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
Amber Rudd, obvs.
Theresa Villiers?
Oh ffs, everyone knows which Tory woman would make the best leader.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
Hilary is 68, Corbyn is 66. It is the new 50s.
Hilary is 61, Hillary is 68. But I digress. Mrs Clinton as the favourite for president never mind the nomination show a distinct paucity of talent in the Democrat Party. And it shows how useless the Republicans are at this time.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
there must be fair chance of Corbyn resigning by next week, it can't carry on like this for Labour, they will just implode
Nah, shadow cabinet appointment for Jon Trickett and a promotion for Nandy to shadow Foreign sec.
Indeed. Corbyn's nowhere near the bottom of the barrel if he's looking to fill posts after a mass Shadow Cabinet resignation. Which is highly unlikely anyway, as they're a collective of spineless cowards, terrified of deselection by Momentum.
Polls show Labour could lose Oldham West and Royton to UKIP next Thursday but Mr Corbyn will now stay in London after his shadow cabinet threatened to resign on masse because he said the party would take a 'collective decision' over Syria.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
Labour is practically indestructible while (1) the unions back it (2) there is no other viable party of the left which can break through FPTP. So it is probably going to live to fight another day, as it has before.
But there is a scenario for its demise. (1) union funding fails because of the new legislation (2) UKIP breaks through FPTP and knocks out its working class core vote from the right (3) Labour self destructs so as to make room for a new party of the broad left.
What is astonishing about the last week or so is that we really do seem to be looking at the beginnings of (3). MPs are pitted against the leader who has the support of an activist mass membership. It's hard to see who can win this. If it's an existential fight to the death, it could be like the death of the Liberals as a party of government when Asquith and Lloyd George fell out and split the party, leaving room for their replacement by Labour.
there must be fair chance of Corbyn resigning by next week, it can't carry on like this for Labour, they will just implode
Nah, shadow cabinet appointment for Jon Trickett and a promotion for Nandy to shadow Foreign sec.
Indeed. Corbyn's nowhere near the bottom of the barrel if he's looking to fill posts after a mass Shadow Cabinet resignation. Which is highly unlikely anyway, as they're a collective of spineless cowards, terrified of deselection by Momentum.
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
Amber Rudd, obvs.
Precisely. How on earth she has been completely missed - to the extent that there aren't even odds quoted on her, despite the fact that she's a cabinet minister and an Osborne protegé - is baffling.
Of course there is the little problemette that Hastings & Rye is not the safest of seats. But with boundary changes, that could be finessed.
Perhaps Amber Rudd's little outing into the limelight a week or two back might give a clue as to why she has been passed over by the punters. At best she has been completely house trained by her civil servants at worst she is terminally thick. Either way when it comes displaying leadership the expression, "Couldn't lead a squad of ducklings across a fire bucket" immediately springs to mind.
Of the younger generation of Conservative ladies I think Liz Truss is the one to watch.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
She could say she could have more influence for Scotland in Westminster.
Dave could appoint her as the new Tory Viceroy Secretary of State for Scotland
Is that BBC picture the worst 'collar' for Corbyn yet?
Indeed. Collar buttons. Let's talk about them... :-)
On Tom's question, leaving aside whatever he's thinking of specifically, politics is odd in that you have loads of colleagues who you work with more or less cordially but you don't necessarily make many friends. If you agree with someone but don't much like him, you try not to let it get in the way.
Going to Parliament is very like attending a conference and going to various sessions - you see Fred in one and take the chance to have a ten-minute chat about a current issue, but in the evening you all go home to your separate places, far too tired to socialise. Friendships do tend to form on joint trips outside - Select Committees in particular, where people across party find themselves in Bogota trying to figure out how to get around. The affairs you read about (Major/Currie etc.) are the exception, not the rule.
As in all kinds of work you do make a few friends more or less by accident. The MP who I most admired personally was Oliver Letwin, with whose politics I had virtually nothing in common, and who arguably did fit Tom's description during the Thatcher years - really one of the nicest people I've ever met. I've never found a correlation between niceness and any political viewpoint.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
''He's the Osborne candidate with a better backstory than Osborne, if Osborne himself does not run, is how I think the theory goes. Needs to get his name out there in the next few years, I'd say.''
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
Could be. I think a rank outsider is very unlikely, given that the party is in government. They won't put a non-entity into number 10. Somebody in the cabinet though but not in one of the "great" offices? Morgan? She's said she's interested.
Not Morgan.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
Amber Rudd, obvs.
Precisely. How on earth she has been completely missed - to the extent that there aren't even odds quoted on her, despite the fact that she's a cabinet minister and an Osborne protegé - is baffling.
Of course there is the little problemette that Hastings & Rye is not the safest of seats. But with boundary changes, that could be finessed.
Perhaps Amber Rudd's little outing into the limelight a week or two back might give a clue as to why she has been passed over by the punters. At best she has been completely house trained by her civil servants at worst she is terminally thick. Either way when it comes displaying leadership the expression, "Couldn't lead a squad of ducklings across a fire bucket" immediately springs to mind.
Of the younger generation of Conservative ladies I think Liz Truss is the one to watch.
Ref Labour and Syria, what seems strange is that there are only two options as far as the effects of the vote go - (1) oppose the government on a three-line whip, (2) accept that the air strikes will happen - so the debate between a free vote and support for the government is redundant: a free vote is tantamount to letting the government have its way, whatever benefits it might have for internal party unity.
The third option of putting down an amendment might finesse matters if it's another of the Millibandesque kick-the-can-down-the-road nature but wouldn't really conceal the fundamental divide between the interventionists and the pacifists and could only ever be a temporary solution.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
Really, Miss Plato, perhaps you are suffering from the same plague as me and are overdosing on the medicine. Douglas-Home was as Scottish as they come.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
Really, Miss Plato, perhaps you are suffering from the same plague as me and are overdosing on the medicine. Douglas-Home was as Scottish as they come.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Yes but the May we see now will be over 4 years older in 2020. And who would be leader by 2025? Someone looking too young and inexperienced now will also be 4 years older in 2020. George Osborne is 44.
PS May would be a safe pair of hands, but I do not see her being any more electorally fragrent than Osborne.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
Alec Douglas-Home
Bonar Law was from a Scottish family but born in Canada
Labour is practically indestructible while (1) the unions back it (2) there is no other viable party of the left which can break through FPTP. So it is probably going to live to fight another day, as it has before.
But there is a scenario for its demise. (1) union funding fails because of the new legislation (2) UKIP breaks through FPTP and knocks out its working class core vote from the right (3) Labour self destructs so as to make room for a new party of the broad left.
What is astonishing about the last week or so is that we really do seem to be looking at the beginnings of (3). MPs are pitted against the leader who has the support of an activist mass membership. It's hard to see who can win this. If it's an existential fight to the death, it could be like the death of the Liberals as a party of government when Asquith and Lloyd George fell out and split the party, leaving room for their replacement by Labour.
Even with the unions backing it, they're still struggling with their own existential crisis, arguably even without the trade union bill too. Union membership has probably fallen below 7 million this year, the abolition of 'check off', smaller unions dissolving leading to the death of industry specific unions (except in the public sector). If the tories can stop nurses joining unions for professional indemnity and other minor legal aspects it'll get even worse. Labour will be forced to find new paymasters soon out of necessity - I don't see this trend reversing any time soon.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
Alec Douglas-Home
Arguably Bonar Law too. Although he was born in New Brunswick (not then part of Canada), his family moved back to Scotland while he was a child.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
Agreed.
And Tory MPs (97-01 excepted) are quite good at judging the right leader for the public mood......
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Wot, no Boris?
I pretty much agree with your top 5, but once you get down to your last three, there are many more potential contenders with an equally good or better chance IMO. It could well be one of those outsiders: there's time for others to come into the limelight, or to catch the attention of MPs before the public/party members have really noticed them.
It will, however, probably be a cabinet minister (unless there's a Leave vote), given that this is going to be an in-flight change of pilot.
I like Soubry's no-nonsense manner, but not her politics. May gets my vote for now - she's got that tough gravitas and a high pain threshold when it comes to political hardball after all that time at Home Office.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
Were Zac to win next May, Ruth Davidson could be the Tory candidate in Richmond Park.
Difficult. It'd depend on the result in Scotland but if the Tories do well, how does she justify jumping ship; if they don't, why would she be selected?
Alec Douglas-Home
Bonar Law was from a Scottish family but born in Canada
Harold MacMillan's grandfather was the son of a Scottish crofter!
I like Soubry's no-nonsense manner, but not her politics. May gets my vote for now - she's got that tough gravitas and a high pain threshold when it comes to political hardball after all that time at Home Office.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
I am tempted by Sourby, but have held back, partly as there is no price on Betfair and also she is a known pro-europe person a la Ken Clarke. Can someone of those views get anywhere in a leadership election?
I like Soubry's no-nonsense manner, but not her politics. May gets my vote for now - she's got that tough gravitas and a high pain threshold when it comes to political hardball after all that time at Home Office.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
64 is viable providing there are no health issues (which there aren't, as far as I'm aware). It's the same age Howard was in 2005 and the same age Callaghan was when he became PM in 1976 (and hence he was a good deal older going into his first election). Foot was 70 in 1983 and Corbyn, if he survives that long, would be 71. Hilary Benn, talked of as a potential replacement for Corbyn, will be 66 in 2020.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
I like Soubry's no-nonsense manner, but not her politics. May gets my vote for now - she's got that tough gravitas and a high pain threshold when it comes to political hardball after all that time at Home Office.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
snip
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
I am tempted by Sourby, but have held back, partly as there is no price on Betfair and also she is a known pro-europe person a la Ken Clarke. Can someone of those views get anywhere in a leadership election?
I like Soubry's no-nonsense manner, but not her politics. May gets my vote for now - she's got that tough gravitas and a high pain threshold when it comes to political hardball after all that time at Home Office.
People tipping Ruth Davidson as next Tory leader probably thought Scott Walker was a lock for the Republican nomination
I can't see past George, Javid or May at the moment. Won't be Boris or Ruth.
There's no prospect of Ruth becoming an MP is there?
I think Boris will struggle to get into the final two.
I see May as holding the advantage over Osborne as she will be able to pose as more of a true Conservative / get back to our roots candidate. Osborne will be continuity with reduced voter appeal. Also, won't the mere prospect of a stern-faced female leader send a shiver of excitement up the grassroots Tory spine?
Not sure about Javid as in I don't really get why he's in the frame.
Mrs May (bless her) will be 64 at the next election and thus 69 at the one after that. Is there any point to her being elected leader of the conservative party?
snip
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Imo May would be very successful electorally.
My order of likelihood for next Tory leader:
Osborne Hammond May (Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run (Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave Truss Mordaunt Soubry
Ah, Hammond! I keep forgetting him but he's very plausible. Experienced, comes across as dull but a safe pair of hands, which could be right in line with the public mood.
@LeeJasper: Labour Shadow Cabinet must accept the view of 60% of @LabourParty members and oppose bombing of #Syria #SyriaStatement or face consequences
Hattie started all this nonsense during the Labour leadership contest
Comments
Whenever this is discussed, I always think that the real winner is still in the pack somewhere. I think Osborne will be detested by the right in 18 months time, and May has flaws. Boris lacks gravitas.
I'm keeping an eye on another woman, still (amazingly) completely off the radar.
Yes you Carlotta.
The press you cite follow their own bile against Salmond and the NATS which is why next to no-one reads them bar you.
You claimed the services war graves reception advertised in the parliamentary bulletin was an evening one. It wasn't. It was straight after decision time at 5pm but only one (ex Presiding Officer Ferguson) non SNP MSP turned up. No Ruthy Davidson, or Dugdale or Rennie. They all went home for tea rather than walk 50 yards to honour the war dead.
The press you cite won't report that of course but that doesn't excuse you changing the time of an event to try and make an anti Salmond point!
Liz Truss?
Polls show Labour could lose Oldham West and Royton to UKIP next Thursday but Mr Corbyn will now stay in London after his shadow cabinet threatened to resign on masse because he said the party would take a 'collective decision' over Syria.
http://dailym.ai/1NxX6y1
Personally, I'd prefer it if the conservative party was led by a conservative, as opposed to a closet socialist.
As you say though, it won;t be a nonentity. A clear, intelligent, unashamed, passionate right wing conservative voice might emerge from the EU in/out campaign.
One already exists, Michael Gove. But it won;t be him.
Of course, you can argue that all those other leaders lost and that's true but age wasn't a particular reason for their losses. Besides, if it is May vs Corbyn (or Benn), one of them is almost certain to win.
Of course there is the little problemette that Hastings & Rye is not the safest of seats. But with boundary changes, that could be finessed.
And don't underestimate the fact that Corbyn's views do resonate with a proportion of the public. It's a small proportion, and nowhere near enough to get a majority, but they've been ignored for thirty years and they're hungry.
Unfortunately they're too busy attacking their opponents within the party than the Conservatives.
https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/670201072728858624
Mrs Clinton as the favourite for president never mind the nomination show a distinct paucity of talent in the Democrat Party. And it shows how useless the Republicans are at this time.
But there is a scenario for its demise. (1) union funding fails because of the new legislation (2) UKIP breaks through FPTP and knocks out its working class core vote from the right (3) Labour self destructs so as to make room for a new party of the broad left.
What is astonishing about the last week or so is that we really do seem to be looking at the beginnings of (3). MPs are pitted against the leader who has the support of an activist mass membership. It's hard to see who can win this. If it's an existential fight to the death, it could be like the death of the Liberals as a party of government when Asquith and Lloyd George fell out and split the party, leaving room for their replacement by Labour.
Of the younger generation of Conservative ladies I think Liz Truss is the one to watch.
Dave could appoint her as the new Tory Viceroy Secretary of State for Scotland
On Tom's question, leaving aside whatever he's thinking of specifically, politics is odd in that you have loads of colleagues who you work with more or less cordially but you don't necessarily make many friends. If you agree with someone but don't much like him, you try not to let it get in the way.
Going to Parliament is very like attending a conference and going to various sessions - you see Fred in one and take the chance to have a ten-minute chat about a current issue, but in the evening you all go home to your separate places, far too tired to socialise. Friendships do tend to form on joint trips outside - Select Committees in particular, where people across party find themselves in Bogota trying to figure out how to get around. The affairs you read about (Major/Currie etc.) are the exception, not the rule.
As in all kinds of work you do make a few friends more or less by accident. The MP who I most admired personally was Oliver Letwin, with whose politics I had virtually nothing in common, and who arguably did fit Tom's description during the Thatcher years - really one of the nicest people I've ever met. I've never found a correlation between niceness and any political viewpoint.
The third option of putting down an amendment might finesse matters if it's another of the Millibandesque kick-the-can-down-the-road nature but wouldn't really conceal the fundamental divide between the interventionists and the pacifists and could only ever be a temporary solution.
The Tories are quite open minded on our leaders. We even had a Canadian in charge once.
Someone looking too young and inexperienced now will also be 4 years older in 2020.
George Osborne is 44.
PS May would be a safe pair of hands, but I do not see her being any more electorally fragrent than Osborne.
I like Truss.
Union membership has probably fallen below 7 million this year, the abolition of 'check off', smaller unions dissolving leading to the death of industry specific unions (except in the public sector).
If the tories can stop nurses joining unions for professional indemnity and other minor legal aspects it'll get even worse.
Labour will be forced to find new paymasters soon out of necessity - I don't see this trend reversing any time soon.
I presume 3-liners are from his desk, but who decides them? His worst cronies pulling his willing strings.
It's a startling lack of self-awareness.
Another Scottish Tory leader.
Osborne
Hammond
May
(Javid) - only if Osbo doesn't run
(Paterson) - only if EU vote is leave
Truss
Mordaunt
Soubry
Yet it's coming in as steathily as a Trident sub.
FFS, they can't even get this bit right...
It's simple. He always thinks he's right.
And Tory MPs (97-01 excepted) are quite good at judging the right leader for the public mood......
I pretty much agree with your top 5, but once you get down to your last three, there are many more potential contenders with an equally good or better chance IMO. It could well be one of those outsiders: there's time for others to come into the limelight, or to catch the attention of MPs before the public/party members have really noticed them.
It will, however, probably be a cabinet minister (unless there's a Leave vote), given that this is going to be an in-flight change of pilot.
Isn't she the longest serving Home Sec now?
http://order-order.com/2015/11/27/yeo-faces-met-perjury-probe/
Spoken like a true Kipper wanting to destroy the Tories!