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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The good people of Oldham West could also be electing a fut
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The good people of Oldham West could also be electing a future LAB leader possibly the next one
One thing that’s puzzled me about the Oldham by-election is why the leader of Oldham council put himself forward as candidate. He’s already a big figure within the party and, indeed, was being widely tipped as a serious contender for the second biggest elected post in England after the Mayor of London.
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Yesterday I mentioned the suborbital rocket and landing by Bezos's firm Blue Origin. Below is the video of the take-off and landing.
But the shape. Oh my. Never has the adage that rocketry is just compensation been so accurate ...
"Daddy, what did you do today?"
"I paid a few hundred thousand dollars to go into space son."
"Wow!"
"And here's a photo of the rocket."
"But dad, how can I tell my friends you flew into space in a giant metal dildo?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pillaOxGCo
Sorry for diverting the thread so soon. But on-topic: Jim McMahon may be Labour leader in the future, but not within the next five years. He'll need time to become known to the MPs and wider selectorate,
Putin on Turkey shooting down the Russian jet
Erdogan on Syria shooting down a Turkish jet......
https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/
While no fan of Putin, I think the Turks have been a little hasty.....
As has been shown, it's not the first time they've done it.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-34911469
We cant leave all the money scandals to the SNP!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHIcVuqQgVo
Perhaps the Russians should answer exactly who they were bombing yesterday morning, and what connection those people had to do with ISIL ...
But I have little doubt we will have an opportunity to find out. I find the idea that Labour will not win this seat, even in their current embarrassing state, absurd. This is all the more so when the second placed party have been going backwards themselves since May and is fairly evenly split with the Tories. I think he will win by 3-4K in the bye-election and then have a seat for life (subject to boundary changes) or as long as he wants it. As Balls found out having a safe seat is a good first step for the ambitious.
the world’s most prosperous failed state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/25/world/europe/its-capital-frozen-belgium-surveys-past-failures-and-squabbles.html
bbc.co.uk/news/health-34915807
Babies born at weekends more likely to die.
We, on the other hand, can tell the difference between 'terrorists' and 'freedom fighters'.....
So, deliberate or incompetence due to being a new MP and not knowing the system?
Another reason why public bodies such as council should run a mile from financial dealings with football clubs.
Interestingly, if you go back to the Beaconsfield by-election in the 80s exactly the same thing was being said about the Labour candidate then: Anthony Blair.
We on the other hand are 'Assad bad, some of the rest bad, some of the rest ok'.
The Russians position (not that I support it) has the benefit of clarity.....not a bad thing in a war....
But it does seem to be a problem with any party that is in government for a longish period of time that there is not enough promotion and development of the next generation. There is a risk that Cameron's aversion to reshuffles might aggravate that. It may also be aggravated by the increasing tendency of the leadership of political parties being relatively young themselves. Corbyn is of course an exception.
No side in this mess is 'ok' - not even the Kurds, who are probably the nearest to it from our POV.
These days, the nature of Parliamentary politics means that there are a lot more interesting and rewarding things to do elsewhere. Many talented people of all political persuasions clearly decide that it is a lot more interesting to pursue those career paths than to be whipped to within an inch of your life in the Commons.
If that's not enough for economic statists, she also socked it to the pay-day loans companies. Her socialist credentials seem pretty good to me.
Apparently he has only been there once (with all these Stop the War meetings to go to it must be difficult) and his picture has only been on one Labour leaflet in the campaign. Clearly McMahon is very far from stupid.
I was talking to a Labourite Corbyn supporter yesterday, and he expressed his contempt for our local MP, Heidi Allen. He said she might be the next Tory Thatcher. Which I thought odd, given her recent actions ...
Any more polls due? UKIP must be wondering if a victory can be achieved. And, if it is, perhaps the donors will return and the membership revive.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34910649
Had the OS shifted from XP to Windows 7 a little over a year ago... wondering if that would've removed the piece of software involved. Anyone know? I did search for it (eDellRoot) and found nothing.
Edited extra bit: Mr. D, part of a BBC report I caught mentioned the Turks warning the Russians they were 'too near' Turkish airspace.
It's all the Corbyn and Cameron show, with a warm-up comedy act from Sturgeon and Davidson. Farage and Farron don't stand a chance.
Why do they feel so threatened by women?
In any case, you should be able to remove the offending certificate if it is somehow installed
"Do not enter Turkish airspace."
"Do not enter Turkish airspace."
"Leave Turkish airspace"
"Leave Turkish airspace"
"Do not re-enter Turkish airspace."
"Do not re-enter Turkish airspace."
Bang.
Per'aps.
Much more to the point is that the Turks do not want the Russians bombing Turkmen who are very likely to end up in Turkey as yet another wave of refugees. Many are there already.
http://www.thenational.scot/news/alex-salmond-united-ireland-is-as-inevitable-as-an-independent-scotland
Not very?
If McMahon wins then he could be well placed in five years' time to benefit from a backlash against Corbynism: on the right side of the political spectrum, newish to parliament but no longer a complete rookie, a decent track record before entering the Commons and with the energy of the still relatively young.
However, before he gets there, he, and events, have at least five hurdles to clear:
- Firstly, of course, he needs to win the election in Oldham. That's still just about probable but is by no means assured. If he loses, he's highly unlikely to get another shot at a by-election and he'll be far too late to be next leader if he waits until 2020 (and his career may have taken a different path by then anyway - the Manchester mayorality may again look an option though that also depends on Tony Lloyd's plans).
- Secondly, Corbyn needs to survive until 2020. If he goes before then, it'll be the likes of Benn or Cooper - experienced old hands - that'll be required to pick up the pieces. A new broom like McMahon would be too much of a gamble for what would have to be a party in crisis at that point. Clegg was elected after less in 2007 but the Lib Dems were not angling for government at that point. Labour has to play it safer and the key thin-pope-fat-pope principle in this case would be experience.
- Thirdly, Labour has to lose in 2020. If, somehow, Corbyn wins then his successor will almost certainly follow from the left; all their convictions would have been validated by the victory, as well as the left having no doubt gained even more structural control through internal reform.
- Fourthly, he has to hold his seat in 2020. This might sound obvious and OW&R might look safe from 2015 but there are various points to bear in mind, not least that he won't contest OW&R in 2020 as (I think) the seat's likely to be too small under boundary reforms, even if there aren't knock-on effects from neighbouring changes, which is highly likely. Add to that the risks of a full-on UKIP surge or a breakaway SDP2 and the chances, while still substantial, erode that little more.
- And finally, he has to win the leadership election, assuming he stands at all. There, there are plenty more subsidiary variables, from his own prominence (not all that important given the ability of Corbyn, EdM and Cameron to make their cases during the campaign), to who his rivals are, to what he's done in parliament in between.
You can see the pieces fitting together but all in all, I wouldn't be looking at less than 100/1.
"The Russians bomb anti-Assad forces.
We, on the other hand, can tell the difference between 'terrorists' and 'freedom fighters'..... "
It is becoming very difficult to find anyone making a coherent argument for America's 'good jihadists'. More so now that we have seen the handy work of these 'good guys' shooting a parachutist followed by bazookering a rescue hellicopter.
Time to recalibrate our moral compass I think and keep the Turks as far aay from us as possible
I wouldn't even believe that claim, clear premeditated ambush that was ordered at the highest level. Seems to be beyond the wit of our government to criticise Turkey despite their flooding of Europe with refugees, support for Islamic State etc. Whose payroll are they on, isn't it supposed to be ours?
https://www.rt.com/news/323369-turkey-downed-russian-jet/
Good news is the other pilot was rescued by Russian special forces and the SAA.
Oh and International Rescue but that's probably a tenner to Shadsy's christmas fund.
I am laying Dan Jarvis.
Very revealing of the mindset...
Yet there seems to be more discussion of Corbyn and events in Syria.
A few years ago this bog would have been filled with Labourites attacking these stories, and with some justification. The media would have been following their lead.
Labour should really be making more of these problems for the Conservatives. Even Syria has opportunities for them, but Corbyn is largely kyboshed by his own views, which do not give him room to manoeuvre.
Leaving aside the damage he is doing to the party's electoral chances; Corbyn's biggest legacy might be having given the government a free-ish ride.
You can’t blame anyone for the getting the hell out of the place. At least no-one’s shooting in Macedonia!
The R4 correspondent is aggressively criticising India's policy to, um, bring hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
Bleeuuuurrrgh.
This was only premeditated in the fact it was bound to happen. Russia had apologised for violating Turkish airspace in the past, yet appear to have done little to stop it happening again. They knew that Turkey had shot down two Syrian planes for doing the same thing.
If you want to look for premeditation in this, you might want to look towards Russia as well as Turkey. Either they wanted this to happen, or their pilots were incompetent fools.
As for Turkey's 'flooding of Europe with refugees': you do know what Turkey's been doing for four years to house about two million refugees? If they really wanted to 'flood' the EU, they'd have done a much better job of it before now.
In other news Osborne is taking no calls, he's stuck in a meeting with Peter and Paul
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/25/austerity-tory-milibandism-labour-capitalism
I have had a nibble.
Or is there a funny scottish thing going on which would disqualify her?
Is that tim dancing a jig I can see in the distance?
Not sure there was much luck involved other than the stupidity of Labour installing Miliband.
Osborne announcing something and it actually happening are two different things.
Details, details...!