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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expense

SystemSystem Posts: 12,292
edited 2015 20 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

Labour's Oldham Candidate Rakes In £81,598 In Council Allowances https://t.co/Z8C0DIfYCo via guidofawkes

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Wish I were paid £81,598 a year :(
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,238
    I think it was my point on the last thread about the plaque. It stunned everyone into silence.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    The Freedom Association has named Kevan Jones MP as Parliamentarian of the Week.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Obviously Mike is concerned and wants to stop this before it hurts Labour too much.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    To be fair, it's anti Labour and anti UKIP. Mike Smithson PB Tory confirmed.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The difference between the two facts is that one is 'old news' and one is 'new news'.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    RobD said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    To be fair, it's anti Labour and anti UKIP. Mike Smithson PB Tory confirmed.
    I'm pretty certain MS is not a Tory.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,239
    Off-topic:

    The TGV train that crashed in France at the weekend was travelling at 150 MPH, well over the line speed of 110 MPH at that point.

    The interim report for those who can red French can be found at:
    http://www.sncf.com/ressources/rapport_denquete_deraillement_rame_dessai_814521_sur_le_raccordement_de_la_lgv_ee_le_14_novembre_2015.pdf

    Fast work by the French authorities.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham.


    Disagree – Oldham has one of the highest council tax rates in the country and a Council leader as the Labour candidate, who rakes in tens of thousands a year extra in expenses for what some would say is his job. – let the good voters of Oldham decide.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited 2015 20
    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    Well.. not surprising that the slant might be not as you would wish... votes for UKIP are falling off a cliff. It was inevitable. Dave told us that UKIP was full of closet racists, fruitcakes and loonies....
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Labour is now run by fruitcakes and loonies
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    blackburn63 said:

    RobD said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    To be fair, it's anti Labour and anti UKIP. Mike Smithson PB Tory confirmed.
    I'm pretty certain MS is not a Tory.

    Yeah, I was joking... :p
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited 2015 20
    SquareRoot said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    Well.. not surprising that the slant might be not as you would wish... votes for UKIP are falling off a cliff. It was inevitable. Dave told us that UKIP was full of closet racists, fruitcakes and loonies....
    And Labour is full of racists, fruitcakes, loonies and terrorist sympathisers. They are the real nasty party.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I thought Norway was massively in favour of joining the EU:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/667250418259488768
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    SquareRoot said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    Well.. not surprising that the slant might be not as you would wish... votes for UKIP are falling off a cliff. It was inevitable. Dave told us that UKIP was full of closet racists, fruitcakes and loonies....
    If Dave says it then it's true

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    MP_SE said:

    I thought Norway was massively in favour of joining the EU:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/667250418259488768

    Only a small number of political types. Everyone else has more sense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    MP_SE said:

    I thought Norway was massively in favour of joining the EU:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/667250418259488768

    I thought it was always the other way round. The establishment wanted to join, but the people never wanted to.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited 2015 20
    OGH has been going after UKIP for months now. But in the last 6 weeks he's been getting a bit phrenetic.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    To be fair, it's anti Labour and anti UKIP. Mike Smithson PB Tory confirmed.
    LOL - anti tory more like.

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MP_SE said:

    I thought Norway was massively in favour of joining the EU:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/667250418259488768

    Only a small number of political types. Everyone else has more sense.
    Bit like us

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MP_SE said:

    I thought Norway was massively in favour of joining the EU:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/667250418259488768

    Only a small number of political types. Everyone else has more sense.
    Sorry forgot to add sarcasm tags. After 12 hours at work my brain has turned to mush.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    On topic, all parties have had their share of expense problems.

    The trick is to paint your opponents as somehow worse then you.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    OGH - "Since 1999 more people elected as UKIP MEPs have been jailed for expenses fraud than the number of MPs the party has at Westminster."

    Isn't the obvious counter to this:

    And since 1999 more people elected as Labour MPs have been jailed for expenses fraud than 5x the number of MPs UKIP has at Westminster?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    SimonStClare said:

    OGH - "Since 1999 more people elected as UKIP MEPs have been jailed for expenses fraud than the number of MPs the party has at Westminster."

    Isn't the obvious counter to this:

    And since 1999 more people elected as Labour MPs have been jailed for expenses fraud than 5x the number of MPs UKIP has at Westminster?

    Nothing any UKIP politician has done comes close to Cyril Smith's crimes.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    Completely OT. I followed a link to the Independent which had an article on Andrew Neil's excellent and measured attack on IS. I was pleased to see that, in common with almost every other news outlet I have seen the Independent article was supportive of Neil's monologue.

    What amazed me was the comments below the line. It was the sort of thing I am used to seeing below the line at the Telegraph or Guido. Certainly not at the Independent. It is like every comment was made by SeanT after a heavy night on the bottle in a third rate Indian B&B.

    It makes me wonder if PB is becoming the only place to get a fairly reasonable discourse rather than the sort of rabid diatribes that seem to infect all the other comments sections these days.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,013
    Mike's posted before that in elections you have to be ruthless and exploit opposition weakness. Were it the Lib Dems challenging Labour, I've little doubt that they wouldn't hesitate to use the attack line. Ukip too have good reason to because although Mike's point in the leader is fair, it's not particularly relevant to the people of Oldham (and Labour too is not without those who've served time inside for expenses fraud: it's hardly a rebuttal without its own comeback).

    The question is whether it will have much traction. We were told that McMahon was popular locally and if so, it may not matter that much. However, it's the sort of line that can be very effective. For all that it's not a huge amount in terms of the council budget - there'll be plenty of staff earning more - it's a lot compared with average income in Oldham.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Completely OT. I followed a link to the Independent which had an article on Andrew Neil's excellent and measured attack on IS. I was pleased to see that, in common with almost every other news outlet I have seen the Independent article was supportive of Neil's monologue.

    What amazed me was the comments below the line. It was the sort of thing I am used to seeing below the line at the Telegraph or Guido. Certainly not at the Independent. It is like every comment was made by SeanT after a heavy night on the bottle in a third rate Indian B&B.

    It makes me wonder if PB is becoming the only place to get a fairly reasonable discourse rather than the sort of rabid diatribes that seem to infect all the other comments sections these days.

    You should read twitter/facebook comments of any major politician. They are the only ones that i dont bother reading. David Cameron paid tribute to some child who had lost her fight for cancer, saying a few words about her struggle and what she had meant to people she had touched. The comments were just full of diatribe, foul language and just abusive comments.

    There doesnt seem to be any filter to the things people will say. I'm sure these people are just ordinary people living normal lives, and then they just go and type the most unpleasant things imaginable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    I think house prices/average wages are even lower in Oldham than some parts near me. £81k is alot of money up here, not the amount found down the back of a London sofa.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    notme said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Completely OT. I followed a link to the Independent which had an article on Andrew Neil's excellent and measured attack on IS. I was pleased to see that, in common with almost every other news outlet I have seen the Independent article was supportive of Neil's monologue.

    What amazed me was the comments below the line. It was the sort of thing I am used to seeing below the line at the Telegraph or Guido. Certainly not at the Independent. It is like every comment was made by SeanT after a heavy night on the bottle in a third rate Indian B&B.

    It makes me wonder if PB is becoming the only place to get a fairly reasonable discourse rather than the sort of rabid diatribes that seem to infect all the other comments sections these days.

    You should read twitter/facebook comments of any major politician. They are the only ones that i dont bother reading. David Cameron paid tribute to some child who had lost her fight for cancer, saying a few words about her struggle and what she had meant to people she had touched. The comments were just full of diatribe, foul language and just abusive comments.

    There doesnt seem to be any filter to the things people will say. I'm sure these people are just ordinary people living normal lives, and then they just go and type the most unpleasant things imaginable.
    And more often than not it is those on the left that engage in such activities. At least through my PB Tory tinted glasses.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,548
    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    You've overlooked the magisterial David Coburn.

    'Contesting the constituency of Falkirk, he came fourth of five candidates, losing his deposit with 3% of the vote.'
  • MarfMarf Posts: 20
    Pardon the interruption but in case anybody missed this - John Oliver's rant against Isis .... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glxh9ZgP7kc
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    RobD said:

    notme said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Completely OT. I followed a link to the Independent which had an article on Andrew Neil's excellent and measured attack on IS. I was pleased to see that, in common with almost every other news outlet I have seen the Independent article was supportive of Neil's monologue.

    What amazed me was the comments below the line. It was the sort of thing I am used to seeing below the line at the Telegraph or Guido. Certainly not at the Independent. It is like every comment was made by SeanT after a heavy night on the bottle in a third rate Indian B&B.

    It makes me wonder if PB is becoming the only place to get a fairly reasonable discourse rather than the sort of rabid diatribes that seem to infect all the other comments sections these days.

    You should read twitter/facebook comments of any major politician. They are the only ones that i dont bother reading. David Cameron paid tribute to some child who had lost her fight for cancer, saying a few words about her struggle and what she had meant to people she had touched. The comments were just full of diatribe, foul language and just abusive comments.

    There doesnt seem to be any filter to the things people will say. I'm sure these people are just ordinary people living normal lives, and then they just go and type the most unpleasant things imaginable.
    And more often than not it is those on the left that engage in such activities. At least through my PB Tory tinted glasses.
    I think there maybe a glimmer of truth to that, though both sides can be bad. I think the problem from the left is the sense of virtue, that they are pure and clean, on the side of angels. While conservatives are nothing more than vermin who wish to exterminate the poor.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    notme said:

    While conservatives are nothing more than vermin who wish to exterminate the poor.

    Alright PB Tories, which one of you spilt the beans on our plan??
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
    I suppose it depends on your definition of "seemed to want to".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,047
    Richard_Tyndall said:


    It makes me wonder if PB is becoming the only place to get a fairly reasonable discourse rather than the sort of rabid diatribes that seem to infect all the other comments sections these days.

    Most comment sections are to drop a single piece of bile in and then leave, for the most part. For discourse they sure ain't.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
    I suppose it depends on your definition of "seemed to want to".
    I suspect it more depends on whether someone has bothered to actually do their research or has just made a stupid assumption.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
    I suppose it depends on your definition of "seemed to want to".
    Did any MEPs from other parties stand?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    Marf said:

    Pardon the interruption but in case anybody missed this - John Oliver's rant against Isis .... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glxh9ZgP7kc

    I do like John Oliver's piece but Neil's was better.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
    I suppose it depends on your definition of "seemed to want to".
    I suspect it more depends on whether someone has bothered to actually do their research or has just made a stupid assumption.
    That too! I suspect it isn't cheap to run as a candidate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,047
    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,739
    blackburn63 said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
    I suppose it depends on your definition of "seemed to want to".
    Did any MEPs from other parties stand?

    Yep. From both Labour and the Tories. I don't know how many but there was a claim from the EU that they (MEPs) should not have been able to and there was a threat of investigation by OLAF. Not sure it ever came to anything though.

    No idea about Lib Dems, SNP or Greens.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    I appreciate your thoughts but I'm not sure they have anything to rebound from, 4m voted ukip and I'd say a similar number flirted. Right or wrong under fptp it's incredibly difficult to make any headway in terms of representation.

    The vast majority of ukip supporters are decent people, of course it suits certain agendas to concentrate on the tiny % of nutters when in reality it's no different to other parties.

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
    I suppose it depends on your definition of "seemed to want to".
    I suspect it more depends on whether someone has bothered to actually do their research or has just made a stupid assumption.
    That too! I suspect it isn't cheap to run as a candidate.
    It's bloody expensive, MEPs have the advantage of combining it with the day job.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    blackburn63 said:

    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    I appreciate your thoughts but I'm not sure they have anything to rebound from, 4m voted ukip and I'd say a similar number flirted. Right or wrong under fptp it's incredibly difficult to make any headway in terms of representation.

    The vast majority of ukip supporters are decent people, of course it suits certain agendas to concentrate on the tiny % of nutters when in reality it's no different to other parties.

    The LDs didn't do too bad with it in 2005/10. It's a matter of targeting, and the more elections UKIP fight, the better they will become at it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016
    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    Apart from NOTA the insular and backward looking UKIP has very, very little in common with the LibDems.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    RobD said:

    blackburn63 said:

    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    I appreciate your thoughts but I'm not sure they have anything to rebound from, 4m voted ukip and I'd say a similar number flirted. Right or wrong under fptp it's incredibly difficult to make any headway in terms of representation.

    The vast majority of ukip supporters are decent people, of course it suits certain agendas to concentrate on the tiny % of nutters when in reality it's no different to other parties.

    The LDs didn't do too bad with it in 2005/10. It's a matter of targeting, and the more elections UKIP fight, the better they will become at it.
    Id be very happy to start a thread about ukips GE strategy but offers have fallen on stony ground.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,047
    OldKingCole said:

    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    Apart from NOTA the insular and backward looking UKIP has very, very little in common with the LibDems.
    I'm sure you're right, but that wasn't my concern - I think a strong third party is a good thing, and we currently don't have one (besides the SNP, and who knows how long Scotland will be a part of the UK), so be it the LDs or UKIP it would be a good thing in my view. I doubt I'll start voting UKIP, although it was not easy to vote LD this time around either.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: This lot seem to think their problem is what people say to the press off the record. https://t.co/sZkEv2nKYi
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    This is not a parody site.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/667798044700708864?lang=en

    It is sad to see Labour pulling itself apart. Corbyn's backers haven't a clue.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,047
    edited 2015 20
    dr_spyn said:

    This is not a parody site.

    htps://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/667798044700708864?lang=en

    It is sad to see Labour pulling itself apart. Corbyn's backers haven't a clue.

    Well, it was at least polite and measured in tone. Corbyn would approve of that.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Hal Cruttenden makes joke about Nigel Farage and refugees on Have I Got News for You. Zero people laugh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,047
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    This is not a parody site.

    htps://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/667798044700708864?lang=en

    It is sad to see Labour pulling itself apart. Corbyn's backers haven't a clue.

    Well, it was at least polite and measured in tone. Corbyn would approve of that.
    That said, it is a lot of words to say 'Jeremy called for a new kind of politics...but f--- that, it's on now!'
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, right now UKIP aren't the story so they can throw stones from their glass houses. Hell, the Conservatives have just had the police called in and nobody cares.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    blackburn63 said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Artist said:

    UKIP MEPs must have a great time in Brussels as none of them seemed to want to become MPs at the last election apart from Nigel Farage and Tim Aker.

    Pardon?

    Of the 22 UKIP MEPs, 17 of them stood as candidates at the General Election.
    I suppose it depends on your definition of "seemed to want to".
    I suspect it more depends on whether someone has bothered to actually do their research or has just made a stupid assumption.
    That too! I suspect it isn't cheap to run as a candidate.
    It's bloody expensive, MEPs have the advantage of combining it with the day job.

    Of course it depends where they stood really, whether in places they thought they might win or not.

    Being a serious candidate's hard and expensive enough thing for those with major party backing, for the smaller party it's another thing again.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @georgeeaton: Labour MP Jamie Reed writes to Corbyn demanding a free vote on Syria - read the letter in full: https://t.co/LT7IMKRa5D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,047
    edited 2015 20
    Hmm, Rees-Mogg goes for the low hanging fruit I see:


    Comic: Is it a really embarrassing being right wing sometimes?

    Rees-Mogg: All I can say to that is: Jeremy Corbyn

    Although he did then say he admired his courage.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    OldKingCole said:

    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    Apart from NOTA the insular and backward looking UKIP has very, very little in common with the LibDems.
    If someone suggests that we should be looking outwards and not concentrating on Europe you define that as insular. Sorry, Mr. C., but you have lost me with that leap of logic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    edited 2015 20
    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Who is offering those odds?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,013
    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Quite extraordinary that the odds on Labour suffering a swing against of no less than 5%, at a by-election with no scandal surrounding it, while in opposition at a time when the government have not had the best of months, are 33/1.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    edited 2015 20
    U/O Line at 6 pulled, apologies !

    No U/O 5-6 line for the moment
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: Britain poised for Syria air strikes after Labour revolt against Jeremy Corbyn https://t.co/wm0uqLLw1v

    @patrickwintour: Big change in tone - Commons committee may lift objections to UK airstrikes in Syria | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/bLhSEZ1dZr
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,013
    OldKingCole said:

    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    Apart from NOTA the insular and backward looking UKIP has very, very little in common with the LibDems.
    That doesn't mean there isn't a significant overlap in the pools of voters that the two parties fish in. The Lib Dems were highly adept at appealing to a wide variety depending on local circumstances.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/richjm/status/667829908261896193
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Quite extraordinary that the odds on Labour suffering a swing against of no less than 5%, at a by-election with no scandal surrounding it, while in opposition at a time when the government have not had the best of months, are 33/1.
    Not really. Assuming that these are bookies' odds then they are a reflection of where the money is going, at best a second order prediction of what might happen.

    Years ago at a dinner I sat next to a very wealthy and successful on-course bookmaker. He confessed to me that he knew nothing about horses or horse racing and nor did he care. His only concern was the mathematics of making a winning book by offering odds that ensured for any race he came out on top.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,640
    RobD said:

    notme said:

    While conservatives are nothing more than vermin who wish to exterminate the poor.

    Alright PB Tories, which one of you spilt the beans on our plan??
    Sgt. Sunil: Alright, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?

    PB Tories: Yeah!

    Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?

    PB Tories: Yeah!

    Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?

    PB Tories: Lean and mean!

    Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    The odds are from an impeccable bookie ! I'm acting as his runner.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    HAHAHAHAHAHA.. Matt is a genius..
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,013
    HurstLlama said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Quite extraordinary that the odds on Labour suffering a swing against of no less than 5%, at a by-election with no scandal surrounding it, while in opposition at a time when the government have not had the best of months, are 33/1.
    Not really. Assuming that these are bookies' odds then they are a reflection of where the money is going, at best a second order prediction of what might happen.

    Years ago at a dinner I sat next to a very wealthy and successful on-course bookmaker. He confessed to me that he knew nothing about horses or horse racing and nor did he care. His only concern was the mathematics of making a winning book by offering odds that ensured for any race he came out on top.
    OK, let me put it another way. Labour is defending a 15000 majority - the scale of which they've lost only once in opposition since WWII (and probably precious few times while in government), and punters give them about a one in four chance of doing precisely that. And this without any particularly exceptional local factors.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    The odds are from an impeccable bookie ! I'm acting as his runner.

    I'll take 33/1 if you'll lay me?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: Britain poised for Syria air strikes after Labour revolt against Jeremy Corbyn https://t.co/wm0uqLLw1v

    @patrickwintour: Big change in tone - Commons committee may lift objections to UK airstrikes in Syria | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/bLhSEZ1dZr

    Oh, dear. I fear that means Cameron is going to drag us into another war without any plan of how it might be won or how we get out of it. Emotion is a very bad basis for foreign policy
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,640
    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Um, what's a "U/O Line"? Thanks
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited 2015 20
    Genius.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/richjm/status/667829908261896193

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Labour MP said re Oldham West: “A good proportion of the PLP want to lose: they are looking for the next crisis." https://t.co/LgLXAixp3y
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    edited 2015 20
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The odds are from an impeccable bookie ! I'm acting as his runner.

    I'll take 33/1 if you'll lay me?
    Which 33-1 ?

    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    david_herdson said:

    HurstLlama said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Quite extraordinary that the odds on Labour suffering a swing against of no less than 5%, at a by-election with no scandal surrounding it, while in opposition at a time when the government have not had the best of months, are 33/1.
    Not really. Assuming that these are bookies' odds then they are a reflection of where the money is going, at best a second order prediction of what might happen.

    Years ago at a dinner I sat next to a very wealthy and successful on-course bookmaker. He confessed to me that he knew nothing about horses or horse racing and nor did he care. His only concern was the mathematics of making a winning book by offering odds that ensured for any race he came out on top.
    OK, let me put it another way. Labour is defending a 15000 majority - the scale of which they've lost only once in opposition since WWII (and probably precious few times while in government), and punters give them about a one in four chance of doing precisely that. And this without any particularly exceptional local factors.
    Fair go, Mr. Herdson, but as has been noted on here very many times, political punters often bet with their hearts not their heads. I really do not think taking bookies' odds as a likely predictor of actual outcome is a very good idea.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,482
    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: Britain poised for Syria air strikes after Labour revolt against Jeremy Corbyn https://t.co/wm0uqLLw1v

    @patrickwintour: Big change in tone - Commons committee may lift objections to UK airstrikes in Syria | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/bLhSEZ1dZr

    Oh, dear. I fear that means Cameron is going to drag us into another war without any plan of how it might be won or how we get out of it. Emotion is a very bad basis for foreign policy
    I'm not sure it's quite that cut and dried - the people who've spoken out against Corbyn in that Telegraph piece are Liz Kendall and Chuka Ummuna.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Hugo Rifkind has done Jeremy Corbyn's week in The Times
    Wednesday
    I have appointed Ken Livingstone as co-convenor of Labour’s defence review. And I don’t even drink.

    Unfortunately, there are calls for him to resign by lunchtime, after my shadow defence minister says it’s a bad appointment, and Ken says he must be depressed and need medical help, and it turns out he was, and did.

    “I’m from South London,” says Ken. “We retaliate.”
    “I’m from North London,” I say, “and we don’t.”
    “But you’re just a weird old man in sandals,” says Ken.
    “I respect your position on this,” I say.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4619825.ece
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The odds are from an impeccable bookie ! I'm acting as his runner.

    I'll take 33/1 if you'll lay me?
    Which 33-1 ?

    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    25+
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,482
    kle4 said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Well I never, an anti UKIP thread

    I want UKIP to do well - I hope they rebound. Someone has to become a strong third party, and although it will be hard for UKIP to do it, the LDs aren't looking like doing it again anytime soon.
    Sadly I don't think they will. UKIP aren't the force they were - the GE media trashing was too effective.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The odds are from an impeccable bookie ! I'm acting as his runner.

    I'll take 33/1 if you'll lay me?
    Which 33-1 ?

    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    25+

    Check yr inbox :)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited 2015 20
    UN resolution against ISIS gets unanimous backing from Security Council....
    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/vote-resolution-condemning-islamic-state-attacks-35325923
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: Britain poised for Syria air strikes after Labour revolt against Jeremy Corbyn https://t.co/wm0uqLLw1v

    @patrickwintour: Big change in tone - Commons committee may lift objections to UK airstrikes in Syria | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/bLhSEZ1dZr

    Oh, dear. I fear that means Cameron is going to drag us into another war without any plan of how it might be won or how we get out of it. Emotion is a very bad basis for foreign policy
    I'm not sure it's quite that cut and dried - the people who've spoken out against Corbyn in that Telegraph piece are Liz Kendall and Chuka Ummuna.
    I admire your optimism. However we are going to war again, Cameron is determined on it. Of course, with George Osborne's defence cuts we probably cannot add to the half a dozen clapped out Tornados that we have bombing Iraq at the moment, which might be a blessing, and we do have his latest set of defence cuts due for publication very soon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,135
    Given the salary for an MP is £74,000 per annum and Mr McMahon earns £81,598 as a councillor (through his role as leader of the Council and chair of the Labour Group on the LGA) perhaps the voters of Oldham will take pity on him and the potential pay cut he may have to face were he to be elected to Parliament and decide to vote UKIP instead!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,013
    HurstLlama said:

    david_herdson said:

    HurstLlama said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Quite extraordinary that the odds on Labour suffering a swing against of no less than 5%, at a by-election with no scandal surrounding it, while in opposition at a time when the government have not had the best of months, are 33/1.
    Not really. Assuming that these are bookies' odds then they are a reflection of where the money is going, at best a second order prediction of what might happen.

    Years ago at a dinner I sat next to a very wealthy and successful on-course bookmaker. He confessed to me that he knew nothing about horses or horse racing and nor did he care. His only concern was the mathematics of making a winning book by offering odds that ensured for any race he came out on top.
    OK, let me put it another way. Labour is defending a 15000 majority - the scale of which they've lost only once in opposition since WWII (and probably precious few times while in government), and punters give them about a one in four chance of doing precisely that. And this without any particularly exceptional local factors.
    Fair go, Mr. Herdson, but as has been noted on here very many times, political punters often bet with their hearts not their heads. I really do not think taking bookies' odds as a likely predictor of actual outcome is a very good idea.
    That's fair enough but all the same, that there's the consensus of feeling that there must be is of itself indicative of something in the water. Whether that's a misperception or an accurate one remains to be seen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Labour heartlands of Glasgow and Central Scotland have never needed a strong Labour Party more. For eight years they have been deceived by Nationalists who talk Left but walk Right.

    Just ask Alex Salmond's former head of policy Alex Bell, who looks at the SNP's mealy mouthed rhetoric, compares it to their record and concludes that Scotland's Government is – and I quote – morally dubious.

    On health, on education, on justice the SNP would rather point at the polls than deal with the problems. Scotland can't afford another five years of a government that would rather congratulate itself than explain itself.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14091761.Agenda__SNP_have_become_an_arrogant__complacent_and_headline_grabbing_party_in_government/
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited 2015 20
    Mirror reporting terror plot to hijack a British ferry, employing a "dirty bomb"...
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/special-forces-alert-security-chiefs-6870857
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    david_herdson said:

    HurstLlama said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oldham latest odds:

    Lab 0-5 15/8
    Lab 5-10 7/4
    Lab 10-15 6/1
    Lab 15-20 16/1
    Lab 20-25 33/1
    25+ 33/1
    Lab Lose 10-3

    U/o Line 5/6 Lab 6.

    Quite extraordinary that the odds on Labour suffering a swing against of no less than 5%, at a by-election with no scandal surrounding it, while in opposition at a time when the government have not had the best of months, are 33/1.
    Not really. Assuming that these are bookies' odds then they are a reflection of where the money is going, at best a second order prediction of what might happen.

    Years ago at a dinner I sat next to a very wealthy and successful on-course bookmaker. He confessed to me that he knew nothing about horses or horse racing and nor did he care. His only concern was the mathematics of making a winning book by offering odds that ensured for any race he came out on top.
    OK, let me put it another way. Labour is defending a 15000 majority - the scale of which they've lost only once in opposition since WWII (and probably precious few times while in government), and punters give them about a one in four chance of doing precisely that. And this without any particularly exceptional local factors.
    The most fascinating thing about 'markets', it doesnt matter in what, just how quickly a price is established and a value is acquired.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited 2015 20
    RodCrosby said:

    Mirror reporting terror plot to hijack a British ferry, employing a "dirty bomb"...
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/special-forces-alert-security-chiefs-6870857

    Stripped of the hype, that is a report of a naval exercise of the type that has been going on to my certain knowledge since the 1980s.

    There is no known "dirty bomb" plot and the article that you quite doesn't even say that there is. Merely someone stating the bleedin obvious in that setting off a nuclear device in one of our ports would be very bad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,135
    NBC GOP nomination

    Trump: 28%
    Carson: 18%
    Cruz: 18%
    Rubio: 11%
    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-trump-retakes-lead-gop-race-cruz-makes-gains-n466651
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: David Cameron reacts to the historic UN resolution on ISIL https://t.co/JXTSJyrAcU
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited 2015 20
    Useless fact: I found myself sitting next to someone on a train today who strongly resembled the leader of the Green Party Natalie Bennett. When I saw the dark green suitcase I realised it actually was her and not just a lookalike.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HurstLlama said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Mirror reporting terror plot to hijack a British ferry, employing a "dirty bomb"...
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/special-forces-alert-security-chiefs-6870857

    Stripped of the hype, that is a report of a naval exercise of the type that has been going on to my certain knowledge since the 1980s.

    There is no known "dirty bomb" plot and the article that you quite doesn't even say that there is. Merely someone stating the bleedin obvious in that setting off a nuclear device in one of our ports would be very bad.
    There is a dirty bomb in 'Goldfinger'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,047
    Scott_P said:

    The Labour heartlands of Glasgow and Central Scotland have never needed a strong Labour Party more. For eight years they have been deceived by Nationalists who talk Left but walk Right.

    Just ask Alex Salmond's former head of policy Alex Bell, who looks at the SNP's mealy mouthed rhetoric, compares it to their record and concludes that Scotland's Government is – and I quote – morally dubious.

    On health, on education, on justice the SNP would rather point at the polls than deal with the problems. Scotland can't afford another five years of a government that would rather congratulate itself than explain itself.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14091761.Agenda__SNP_have_become_an_arrogant__complacent_and_headline_grabbing_party_in_government/

    Well they're getting an SNP government either way, so they had better get used to it.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    HurstLlama said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: Britain poised for Syria air strikes after Labour revolt against Jeremy Corbyn https://t.co/wm0uqLLw1v

    @patrickwintour: Big change in tone - Commons committee may lift objections to UK airstrikes in Syria | Politics | The Guardian https://t.co/bLhSEZ1dZr

    Oh, dear. I fear that means Cameron is going to drag us into another war without any plan of how it might be won or how we get out of it. Emotion is a very bad basis for foreign policy
    I'm not sure it's quite that cut and dried - the people who've spoken out against Corbyn in that Telegraph piece are Liz Kendall and Chuka Ummuna.
    I admire your optimism. However we are going to war again, Cameron is determined on it. Of course, with George Osborne's defence cuts we probably cannot add to the half a dozen clapped out Tornados that we have bombing Iraq at the moment, which might be a blessing, and we do have his latest set of defence cuts due for publication very soon.
    What defence cuts? The government policy is to maintain 2% of GDP on defence during this parliament.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    One of the problems with Ed Miliband was that he looked too young to be PM for a lot of older voters. Labour may have made the mistake with their by-election candidate for Oldham.
This discussion has been closed.