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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The return of Marf and tonight’s local by-election review by Harry Hayfield
Watton (UKIP defence) and South Smallburgh (Lib Dem defence) on Norfolk
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservative 40, United Kingdom Independence Party 15, Labour 14, Liberal Democrats 10, Green Party 4, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2013):
0
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Comments
I'm not sure Corbyn thinks Corbyn is doing better than Cameron.
Frankly I am more concerned with Jessop's beloved Turkey; a country led by a vicious dictator that sponsors IS, who gassed civilians at Ghouta, who has unleashed a tidal wave of refugees into Europe to Islamicise it and that has annihilated it's Christian population. When Turkey, KSA and Qatar holds free and fair elections then Syria shall.
Anyway a moot point thankfully, the substantial gains the SAA has made since the Russian intervention (East Aleppo, South Aleppo, Latakia) should see the Syrian civil war concluded by mid summer.
I mean, really.
The rest of your post holds the same low factual content.
And as always, thanks Harry.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/france
Thanks Harry.
'There's a pattern of Labour being 4-10% behind the Conservatives in polling. And, that seems to be borne out in local by-elections.
That's not good for the main opposition, at this stage of the Parliament. '
It is a fair bit closer than 6 months into the 1987 Parliament.
@hopisen: @hopisen: ...only we Blairites can ride the giant sandworms of the desert and harvest them for Melange. Without us the empire will collapse.
Get this, Telephone Surveys are now not so much passe, they should be downright illegal. Anyone who believes telephone surveys needs a brain planted into their skull to fill the void.
The last thing the "moderates" as a whole need to be doing is trying to present it as a binary choice between hardcore swivel-eyed-Blairism and Corbyn, because nothing could do more to shore up Corbyn's position.
SNP: London 5%
And UKIP loses 10% of it's UK 2015 voters to the SNP, despite the fact that UKIP only got 1% in Scotland in 2015.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-november-2015-tables.pdf
Unfortunately I gave to declare it a Junk Poll.
EDIT
@John_Ferrett: Hold the back page! Regional office have opined coin toss cannot be used after one ballot. Another vote for Chair to take place!
Others may have noted that I'm no fan of Erdogan - as examples his oppression of the media is a very poor indication of the way he wants to run the country, and I dislike the way he put down the protests a couple of years ago - but your hatred of Turkey does you little credit.
It is a mistake is to think Turkish politics is anything like our politics, when in fact it includes a series of groups that don't necessarily follow party lines: some of these groups, like Gulen and his supporters, are real enough: others such as Ergenekon may exist, or may well be fictional.
You should also remember the work Turkey has been doing, along with Lebanon and Jordan, with the refugees. Work that people like you give them no credit for. Then you have the problem of the PKK that is directly involved with the Syrian civil war.
And don't forget Turkey has also suffered from ISIS attacks that have killed many people.
Even before those attacks, the Turkish parliament had a parliamentary vote last year enabling the military to attack parties inside Iraq and Syria, including ISIS. The motion was passed.
You might not like it, but that doesn't make it any less true.
But still, if my phone number is registered with TPS, as is my mobile, why are these damn calls still getting through. My landline is still registering 20 nuisance calls a week, down I must admit from 30 a day before I fitted the unit, but I am still not a happy bunny.
Added for clarity: I have records of all the nuisance calls, whether they are foreign, withheld or are just previously recorded as nuisance.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
Via Guido
A problem of having LAB council leader as candidate is that he can be vulnerable to this
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUM4UFHXAAAd8gF.jpg:large
They are vulnerable to scandal.
@John_Ferrett: Apparently some people have left in the hiatus between the two votes - cue more arguments when they announce this result.
If not, then I apologise.
2 ties in a local party chairmanship vote in Portsmouth = Corbyn's Labour, how exactly?
However anyone who supported Liz Kendall for anything must be out of their minds.
http://hopisen.com/2015/liz-kendall-for-prime-minister/
"Brilliant, funny, charming people turn into empty automata or grinning masks under this pressure to know everything. Sometimes they end up as an empty automaton in a grinning mask, and you’re never quite sure what’s real and what false, what’s meant and what’s meaningless.
That’s the cartoon politician you see on TV. That’s where and why they get formed and defined.
It was at one of these type of events I heard Liz speak. I think she was there because Andy Burnham couldn’t make it. Actually, she didn’t even make a speech. It was a discussion about health and social care with people who knew loads more about the subject than I did. I was there to fill the room, and I expected nothing but an evening of silence broken by the occasional thoughtful nod.
Liz was just somehow different to any other frontbencher I’d seen."
If only he reversed the order of the article he would have accurately described Liz Kendall.
What if he never went back to Syria ? Just sowed out a misinformation.
Never underestimate the Turkish government's dislike of the PKK and, to a lesser but real extent, the Kurds. Some would like to destroy them - it's the same mindset that causes them to deny the Armenian genocide, and it is appalling. Many things Turkey does should be filtered through that prism.
They also support other groups, and apparently part of the government even supported Assad at very early stages, even whilst another part was condemning him! Again, it's all to do with the Kurds.
It was an example of the enemy-of-our-enemy-is-our-friend philosophy that many on here want to do in supporting Assad against ISIS, and will probably have the same effect.
Then there are other issues: there is severe corruption in parts of Turkey (which, in part, is a hangover of smuggling from the Ottoman days when a vast amount of valuable trade passed through the country). Traditionally governments of all stripes in the country have turned a blind eye to this.
But I'm probably saying too much.
If it's someone genuine they'll leave a message.
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_2004_2016UKb_15c1li111mcn_00t
Spending on everything else is either stagnant or falling.
Osborne splurged on pensions for the pensioner vote regardless of the deficit.
Remind us who ran up all the debt.
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_2004_2016UKb_15c1li111mcn_G0t
TELEGRAPH: Terrorist ringleader got into EUas 'refugee'
http://www.ukpublicrevenue.co.uk/revenue_chart_1986_2017UKb_15c1li111mcn_11t
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/29/david-cameron-syria-uk-us-russia-iran-assad-cbs-putin-rouhani
The contentious point, as on here, is the future of Assad. Either the UK, US and others have given in and said Assad can stay in the long-term; or Russia has said he will go in the long-term. More likely is that there has been some form of diplomatic kludge: Assad will stay on for the moment, but he will leave later. Which will be one of those definitions of 'later' which never arrives.
As you might guess, I don't like that kudge.
What's the big man going to make of this I wonder? No 72 virgins for you.
Ever heard of interest payments?
The country is going to face a pensions crisis in a few years.