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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Palmer: Why Angela Merkel is going to remain as German
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Palmer: Why Angela Merkel is going to remain as German Chancellor
A regular feature of PB in recent weeks has been predictions that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s position is becoming increasingly untenable and either she will need to resign or the CDU poll rating will collapse. At one level, this seems borne out by the polls – Merkel’s popularity is down to 49%, still enviable by British standards but far below her historical average.
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FPT: IT contractors raise alarm over HMRC mulling 'one-month' nudge onto payrolls
That is an extraordinary achievement
#Labour
I've barely heard a peep from them in weeks.
I could add a follow-on: But even Sven Palmer would not agree:
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51A4lsHc78L._SX301_BO1,204,203,200_.jpgIt would be funny if these people weren't auditioning for the role of running the country.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-34855695
There is skimming off the top, then there is...
There is a disgusting overlap between those who argue foreign interventions invite terrorism and the claim that women who dress proactively invite rape. In that both claims wrongly try to shift responsibility and blame.
On the new thread:
I think Nick Palmer doesn't consider the very real possibility that the grand coalition falls below 50%. Afd and Fdp look very likely to both cross the threshold, especially so if the trend continues the way it has been going.
Also it is a massive stretch to call her a small c conservative, when she happily overseas a European superstate project with an un-audited and unrestrained EU budget. My money still firmly rests on her premiership coming to an end before or at the next federal election.
fpt:
Dear god just catching up with the DP interview with John Woodcock.
Seems a decent enough bloke and you have absolutely got to feel for him and it showed how uncomfortable he was and how honourable in trying to do the best thing in this super-100% bonkers can't f**king believe it Labour Party.
The key, though, is the last paragraph. Yes, she's not in any immediate electoral danger (though there is an election coming up in 2017), but that doesn't mean that she, and Germany, can simply ignore the impact of the migration crisis on the politics and economics of the country. I expect a fairly rapid U-turn on the open borders policy. Germany is going to be badly stretched by the numbers who have already entered the country; it's all very well getting local authorities to find temporary shelter for large numbers of migrants, but that doesn't solve the longer-term problem of absorbing them.
Classic non apology. I am sorry he is upset, not that I upset him. As he said so himself, if somebody is rude to him, he will be rude back.
Another great job by Team Jeremy.
@DPJHodges @KevanJonesMP Well Kevan was wearing a short skirt, you understand. Asking for it obviously...
As an aside, the threader is in an editable box for me .
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/making-healthcare-more-human-centred-and-not-system-centred
Should you reflect and toodle-off 'son'...?
@DPJHodges: ...upset when he abused him in this way. What's the leader of the Labour party going to do now. Anything?
There is a lot of anger and frustration in Germany over Merkel's come all ye faithful of what ever faith. There have been frequent criminal acts against migrants that would be extraordinary, if not damn near impossible to imagine, over here (e.g. burning down hostels). No doubt they are the work of a small minority but, like Mao's fish in the sea, that small minority of nutters could not exist without at least the tacit support of a much larger number.
German poll numbers might not move much but the feelings of the German people may not be as cosy and comfortable as Dr. Palmer suggests.
The furore over Livingstone's remarks mask the real issue. That because Eagle wasn't doing as she was expected (in rejecting Trident), that Corbyn simply appointed someone else to make sure she did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2W3yJF_FflA
The man cited by the commentariat as the political mastermind who was REALLY leading labour???
Good question!
The devil will be in the detail, naturally.
IR35 was/is silly and practically unenforceable in all but the most glaring of cases.
This has the potential to be catestrophic. Given most places I've worked at employ roughly 20-25% contractors, usually on 3-6 month assignments; will all of these now be simply brought onto payroll? really? More likely that these 20-25% will have their contracts terminated.
The implications are huge.
You have absolutely no clue do you?
See my last comment.
IR35 was/is silly and practically unenforceable in all but the most glaring of cases.
This has the potential to be catestrophic. Given most places I've worked at employ roughly 20-25% contractors, usually on 3-6 month assignments; will all of these now be simply brought onto payroll? really? More likely that these 20-25% will have their contracts terminated.
The implications are huge.
Yes, you wont be able to play a tax dodge so blatant that it would make Starbucks blush.
Europe Elects @EuropeElects 5h5 hours ago View translation
France Poll, Ifop (18-34 yrs):
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 40%
Juppé (R-EPP): 20%
Hollande (PS-S&D): 19%
Mélenchon (FG-LEFT): 8%
#SaintDenis #LePen
Declaration of interest: My wife recently became a non-exec director of IPSE, the group mentioned in that article.
:till-then-silence-is-golden:
* Whereever he has lost himself in NHS-Kent...!
I'm a contractor (as you may have gathered)
I've no issue with HMRC/Gov changing the rules and closing down loopholes. The travel/subsistance and dividend changes announced at the last budget for example are all fine.
This isn't going to result in me paying more tax. It will likely result in me paying no tax until I can find a FTE job on a salary that results in less tax.
It is about the flexible contractor market evaporating.
My company structure is there to afford me some protection for when i'm out of work or ill. I have to cover my own pension, sick-pay, holiday pay, insurance, accountancy and so on. It isn't a wheeze to get out of tax.
By refusing to engage in any debate beyond ya-boo-pay-up-you-tax-dodger, you show yourself up as ignorant and would be best placed to STFU.
When Corbyn used his final question to press him on whether neighbourhood policing wouldl be protected, Cameron shot to kill.
It was an apt demonstration of precisely what Labour MPs fear: that Corbyn's contentious statements will undermine his wider message at every turn. Their leader, they fear, will never win a hearing on police cuts and security funding if voters do not trust him with the basic duty of national defence.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/11/pmqs-review-david-cameron-shoots-kill-attack-jeremy-corbyn
That poll is interesting given that, on the outside at least, Hollande seems to be doing a pretty good job.
Utterly bizarre obsession
If Le Pen is polling at 40%+ I would put her favourite to win even in the second round.
"I had no idea that he had any mental health issues, otherwise I never would have said it. If he's upset, I'm sorry. But he can't blame me - he was the one who came out and attacked me and questioned my competence to do this job . . .
"I grew up in South London; if someone was rude to you, you were rude back to them. I didn't get to Eton and get all that smarmy charming education, I'm afraid."
Of course, neither did Kevan Jones go to Eton (Worksop Comprehensive...)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2015/11/ken-livingstone-tells-mp-who-questioned-his-defence-role-seek-psychiatric
Edit - it gets worse when you read what Jones said of Ken: "I'm not sure Ken knows anything about defence. It will only damage our credibility amongst those that do and who care about defence."
Surely 'Kevan is wrong, I know loads about defence, protecting London from nuclear annihilation by declaring it a 'Nuclear Free Zone' would have been sufficient - not a nasty (under any circumstances, let alone one where the target has suffered from mental health issues) personal attack....
@KevanJonesMP: @GuidoFawkes and what about apologising to other thousands of people he insulted.
Given that I compete with the big consultancies why should their consultant be allowed to claim train travel and hotels when spending Monday to Friday at a remote client while I am refused the ability to reclaim those expenses.
I know nothing of French politics but wondered whether Hollande's robust response is due to the fact the right is breathing down his neck.
Caroline Flint Retweeted Luciana Berger
Some will say criticism of Livingstone is an attack on the left. Be honest - his comments were those of a bully.
Hell hath no fury...
Electing Ms Marine Le-Pen would be like electing Mr B Netanyahu or Mr S Berlusconi to some nation with potential but without an electoral or legal structure to protect the state.* A choice that God has given gracious-governance that I will never have to face! Sometimes opposition or abstinence** is better...!
:thankfully-never-voted-labour-bnp-nf-or-such-like:
* It would be like Jockaneselundt electing some Salmon (other fish are available). They may have even elected some Jacobin Joke from Harpenden...!
** In Llhama terms I will congregate at my local - ahem - 'temperance' hostelry.
:phewie...:
He can't help himself, can he?
If a consultancy can claim T&S, then surely it shouldn't matter how many people they employ.
Being pro-EU is small-c conservative in Germany. I'm not sure even the AfD are against it, though they're dubious about the Euro. All the other parties are fans to varying degrees.
But you mention money. Excellent! Would you like a bet on your prediction? I offer you £20 on her premiership lasting until after the 2017 federal election. Bet void if she dies or has to resign due to overwhelming health reasons (not likely but none of us ever know).
Of course, it has changed a bit over the decades since my first visit but, for my money, it remains one of the best restaurants in London and probably the best Curry House in England. If you have an office so close then treat yourself one lunchtime, it is not that expensive and you will not regret it.
IR35 was/is silly and practically unenforceable in all but the most glaring of cases.
This has the potential to be catestrophic. Given most places I've worked at employ roughly 20-25% contractors, usually on 3-6 month assignments; will all of these now be simply brought onto payroll? really? More likely that these 20-25% will have their contracts terminated.
The implications are huge.
I've started thinking about moving to a flexible consultancy role in my line of work, and the thought that HMRC/the Treasury would drive a coach and horses through the personal service company arrangements has been one of the concerns holding me back from pursuing it. This seems terribly un-thought-through if this is the sort of thing they're thinking. The ability to structure a flexible working arrangement this way is a major attraction to offset the fact there will be periods without paid work. Changes like this could kill flexible working stone dead.
Will be interesting to see what is announced, and the implications as a result!
Looking at those local elections earlier this year, the FN was did significantly worse than expected. Polls had them in the low 30s for the first round, ahead of the UMP/The Republicans on 28-29%. In fact, the FN ended up about 6-7% behind the Republicans, and ended up with just 62 out of more than 4,000 seats.
Essentially, despite being number one in the polls, the FN was so transfer unfriendly they ended up with just 1.5% of the seats. That's behind the Communist Party, and the Radical Party of the Left.
What's changed is that Bayrou's MoDem has lost support to the Centre-Right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regions_of_France
Putin 8/10.
Hollande 9/10.
Cameron 7/10.
Obama 3/10.
Merkel 1/10.
The Veeraswamy really is excellent. You will love it.
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell wanted to "disband MI5 and special police squads, disarm the police" in April http://socialistnetwork.org/as-uk-elections-approach-a-socialist-campaign-for-a-labour-victory-is-launched/ …
Oh dear god...
ion for when i'm out of work or ill. I have to cover my own pension, sick-pay, holiday pay, insurance, accountancy and so on. It isn't a wheeze to get out of tax.
By refusing to engage in any debate beyond ya-boo-pay-up-you-tax-dodger, you show yourself up as ignorant and would be best placed to STFU.
So lets look through the numbers. According to http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php. Someone earning £100k on paye will pay £35k in tax and national insurance.
What do you reckon your rate of tax would be on a £100k worth of contractor invoices into a one man company?
I'll make a guess you'll pay yourself just enough to touch the tax free allowance, but not too much that hits hard on any tax credits you claim.