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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s power within LAB will soon hinge on perceptions of his likely general election performance
For the moment at least Mr Corbyn’s authority within the Labour Party derives directly from the sheer scale of his victory in the leadership election in September. His winning margin, of course, was even greater than that of Tony Blair’s in 1994.
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What does OGH rate as being a good result I wonder? Labour surely needs to do more than simply scrape back in?
Really? In a by-election four-and-a-half years from a general election in a highly atypical seat against a protest party?
There is also the little matter of the total lack of an obvious challenger to JC, let alone one who could command enough support to win against him. Labour scraped the bottom of the barrel in its leadership election and the results were remarkable in their mediocrity.
I think he's safe for a while. I think Labour are mad, but I can't see him being moved for at least the next two years.
And how easy is it going to be for them to renew?
The challenge will come next year in the Scottish, Welsh and London Mayoral elections. If Labour does badly there the perception of being a loser will become dangerous to him.
And the omens are not good in either Scotland or Wales. In London Labour have a candidate who wants to keep his distance (as, in fairness, do the Tories). What role is he going to play in these campaigns? Looking irrelevant would be even worse than looking weak.
In the interim, losses or other under-performances will continue to be explained away. Oldham? The Paris attacks combined with a seat where one in six voted for Griffin not long ago. London? Obviously Sadiq wasn't the man. Scotland? Who could oppose the SNP at the moment? Wales? Local difficulties. And so on. And the seductive aspect of all of those is that it won't be the Tories who are the beneficiaries, keeping the chimera of the anti-Tory alliance alive. The exception, of course, would be London but then that could be explained away as a personal vote for Zac: Boris' wins didn't stop Labour doing well at the GE.
But before Corbyn's critics can move, they need to make sure of three things: (1) that they actually can force him out, (2) that if they do, the left won't unite and win around McDonnell or some other candidate, and (3) that whoever does become the standard-bearer of the mainstream will do a half-decent job and not get landed with the blame after another election defeat. I don't think they're remotely close to having a credible answer to any of those and as such, their best option is to rally behind the scenes and wait for the opportunity.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34829546
The latest SDSR will certainly make interesting reading.
There's a clue in the answer.
There's also a lot of ambiguity over what will be considered a good result in the upcoming elections. You could argue standing still would be a decent result in Wales, is just coming 2nd enough in Scotland and how do you determine good local election results, aggregate percentage or performance in marginals..
However, I'll find the results of the following perhaps just as interesting:
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/defence-committee/news-parliament-2015/an-sdsr-checklist-of-potential-threats-inquiry-launch/
I kinda get the impression this inquiry should have been done *before* the SDSR ...
Labour MPs do appear a little more combative than in the past, but I still think there's little prospect of them axing Corbyn. The Macedonian royal family they are not.
‘Mr Corbyn needs a good result in Oldham a fortnight on Thursday.’
He’ll need a lot more than just one goodish result from a by-election to allay fears from within the party and Scotland 2016 looks as though it will be a stinker for him, - what then?
Three friends of mine (yes, on Facebook again, but I've know them for decades) were heavily attacking Cameron at the weekend and making all the usual pro-Corbyn noises and echoing Left-wing shibboleths on immigration. They include two self-proclaimed socialists. I never knew the third had such sympathies; my eyes popped out when I read his posts.
Background? Two of them went to the same traditional private all-boys school as I did, where the headmaster was an ex-BoB fighter pilot, and are from established middle-class families. The third is very well spoken, went to Cambridge and is from a wealthy family that owns a six-bedroom pile with land in a small, pretty village in the middle of Hampshire.
There must have been a time when 80% of anyone with that sort of backstory voted Conservative. No longer.
Typical Jezza Lab view: everything is seen through the prism of the Labour Party rather than the country and politics as a whole.
But something that is quite striking is how rare this is; news coverage of our 'closest neighbour' is almost nonexistent except for catastrophic events like this.
Normally, France might as well be 5000 miles away rather than less less 50, for all the interest we as a society have in the place. I can't imagine any time in the last 1000 years when this would have been so to the extent it apparently is now.
Afraid I'm not really convinced by this argument. Corbyn's authority is already shot to bits with his MPs, but that seems irrelevant. His power comes from the members and I can't see them caring whether he is going to win the election or not given the sorts of people who seem to have joined in recent months.
Of course this could change. Four and half years is a heck of a long time in politics. Many of the Corbynistas may have drifted away in a couple of years, distracted by something else. Or, the consequences of Osborne's budgets may be so bad that the membership, even the £3ers, start to desperately want a Labour government at any price, even if Chukka or Jarvis is that price. I can't see it, but who knows. What seems more likely is that the Left's Great Corbyn Experiment is going to be tested to destruction at the ballot box.
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-escape/
If his name was different surely he would be 8/1 rather than 20s?
Has he massively blotted his copybook at some point or some other egregious mis-step? I'm on him but have no idea of his previous...
"Is that because you think JC's a socialist or because you fear he isn't? It occurred to me the other day that he's only leader because his close friend Bernie Grant is no longer with us."
You mean because Bernie Grant would have been leader?
In answer to your question neither. I haven't the vaguest picture of what a Corbyn government would look like other that it would be at permanent war with itself and watching Labour's factions fighting for control is an unbearable thought
Lots of skeletons rattling there
2) why do you expect the Labour electorate to come to their senses?
ISIS atrocities do put Labour in an awkward position. Most supporters realise that the problem is restricted to a few Muslims, but for some middle class Jezza fans, any implied criticism of Islam is anathema and must be resisted. The Jezzarite "It's all America's fault" rings hollow but it's all they know.
I thought the Charlie Hebdo/Supermarket attacks were appalling enough but this seems to have struck the French as similar to 9/11 and, at least judging by the responses so far, the reaction has been similar to the US's, in terms of language anyway.
Anyway, news reports of shooting / police raids in a Brussels suburb......
The Belgian minister admitted in so many words that they'd 'lost control' of the area, that it is the 'European political centre of radical Islam' and that most of the big European terrorist attacks have been planned there. As nonchalantly as that.
That story is a microcosm of all that is wrong with the EU. The EU could be a leading force in tackling continental terrorism yet we have lacksadaisical, politically-correct, lazy chaps like him in charge, shrugging his shoulders about guns, terrorism, organised crime and drug running operating from an area of 100,000 people that is only 30% Muslim.
How hard is it to get a grip on 30,000 people if the Belgian authorities really put their minds to it?
Will be interesting to see what that will show.
Anyway to work now.
Have a good day all.
It's the police and local authorities that bother me. They have no excuse for these powers, and will abuse them if they get them.
The purpose of Momentum is to change that, the requirement from the general election is to get their own people into safe or suitable seats. The big opportunity is to remake the labour party in their own image.
When Bactria and Sogdiana rebelled, Alexander didn't dick about. The Black Prince didn't just shrug when bits of Gascony shifted to the French.
And it's not like the Islamist terrorists are some sort of benign hippy commune.
I've no idea why he's so attached to it. He definitely owns a dark jacket, and it's not like he can't afford a whole suit given he's on over £100k as LotO.
He's certainly experiencing the Ming Effect of looking visibly a lot older/old bird since his election as leader.
Being caught in bed with a dead boy wouldn't touch him right now - it'd be hand-waved away. I've no idea what could possibly unseat him - none.
The alternative - what you appear to propose - is a Euro-FBI, which were it seriously put forward as an option would send Eurosceptics barmy. I cannot see it as a political runner.
How is this anything to do with the EU... namely the internal policing and social policy arrangements of a sovereign country?
The minister was a Belgian minister, not an EU one. If the EU was telling Belgium how to police itself you would be the first to complain.
Corbyn, despite much misgiving in between, makes it through to 2020 then crashes badly at the election. He stands down and Watson takes over. Watson persuades the NEC not to call a leadership election until after the rules have been changed "in light of a third defeat, each worse than the last". The new rules are adopted at a conference early in 2021, removing the three-pounder clause. Watson finally stands down in June, by which point, Kinnock has been an MP for six years and has been promoted to the front bench.
I think that's not out of the bounds of possibility but nor is it topside of a 5% shot.
Halloween was two weeks ago!
@iainjwatson: Jeremy Corbyn says unfortunately last week's bombing in Beirut got very little coverage and media should report what happens outside europe https://medium.com/@martinbelam/you-won-t-read-about-this-in-the-media-but-b275d46fd51f
The alternative project would need to include some significant redistribution - most members aren't in the least interested in managerialist stuff like transferring power to local authorities, even though it might be a good idea. But it's not only the left that feel that Britain is now seriously lopsided in terms of both wealth and opportunity, and an alternative that set out concrete ways to address that would get an interested audience. For now, though, the great majority of members want Corbyn to be given a decent run.
They really do need to axe Corbyn.
What I want to know is - which one of them does the panda mask belong to?
He was on Lorraine Kelly's show this morning talking about this.
He came across as amiable enough, if a little verbose, until she engaged him on the subject of man-hole covers.
At which point, all his oddness became very visible. Weirder than Ed.
https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/662319898719363072
ha
haha
hahahahahahaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/666167312047857664
He came across as amiable enough, if a little verbose, until she engaged him on the subject of man-hole covers.
At which point, all his oddness became very visible. Weirder than Ed.