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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview with 2 LAB defen

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    Pulpstar said:

    Great stuff for the Greens :)

    They are now able to position themselves as the less bonkers Lefty option when compared to Corbyn's Labour....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @Cyclefree

    Workers in essential services have to be pushed to the extreme to strike, but there is a reciprocal obligation. That is to honour independent pay awards (strangely these are overruled for Doctors but sancrosanct for MPs) and to negotiate in good faith on working conditions. Hunt has withdrawn from negotiations. He claims that the deal is financially neutral. If so then what is his aim? Junior Doctors are the ones who work weekends already.

    He could stop the strike tommorow by returning to the negotiating table without preconditions and withdrawing his threat to impose the contract unilaterally.

    His aim is to create a 7 day a week health service where ultimately our very expensive labs, equipment and operating theatres are used every bit as much on a Saturday and Sunday as they are the other 5 days of the week. Under the present structure the unsocial hours payments would make that prohibitively expensive. In short, as I understand it, doctors will not lose out now but will lose out to some degree as the service evolves in this way.

    I am really struggling to find sympathy for such a stunningly rich and well paid group of people. My neighbour, a consultant in Ninewells, will soon retire on a pension of more than £60K a year at 60. Such rights are worth literally millions of pounds. I will, health permitting, be working into my 70s to help pay for it.
    The deal doesn't apply in Scotland.
    No but the pension entitlements of doctors are the same across the UK. We are talking about members of the top 1% of earners in the country here when rights like pensions are taken into account.
    £60k a year at 60 is a crazily huge pension pot.

    £30k at 65 is a million, so £60k at 60 must roughly be worth around £1.8 - £2.5 depending on if it is index linked.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @Cyclefree

    Workers in essential services have to be pushed to the extreme to strike, but there is a reciprocal obligation. That is to honour independent pay awards (strangely these are overruled for Doctors but sancrosanct for MPs) and to negotiate in good faith on working conditions. Hunt has withdrawn from negotiations. He claims that the deal is financially neutral. If so then what is his aim? Junior Doctors are the ones who work weekends already.

    He could stop the strike tommorow by returning to the negotiating table without preconditions and withdrawing his threat to impose the contract unilaterally.

    His aim is to create a 7 day a week health service where ultimately our very expensive labs, equipment and operating theatres are used every bit as much on a Saturday and Sunday as they are the other 5 days of the week. Under the present structure the unsocial hours payments would make that prohibitively expensive. In short, as I understand it, doctors will not lose out now but will lose out to some degree as the service evolves in this way.

    I am really struggling to find sympathy for such a stunningly rich and well paid group of people. My neighbour, a consultant in Ninewells, will soon retire on a pension of more than £60K a year at 60. Such rights are worth literally millions of pounds. I will, health permitting, be working into my 70s to help pay for it.
    The deal doesn't apply in Scotland.
    No but the pension entitlements of doctors are the same across the UK. We are talking about members of the top 1% of earners in the country here when rights like pensions are taken into account.
    £60k a year at 60 is a crazily huge pension pot.

    £30k at 65 is a million, so £60k at 60 must roughly be worth around £1.8 - £2.5 depending on if it is index linked.
    The maximum pension pot permitted is 1 million. Anything in excess is taxed (at a 55% rate as I recall). It is possible that he preserved his pot under the old rules but that seems implausible if only sixty as he would have had to freeze payments more than five years ago.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @Cyclefree

    Workers in essential services have to be pushed to the extreme to strike, but there is a reciprocal obligation. That is to honour independent pay awards (strangely these are overruled for Doctors but sancrosanct for MPs) and to negotiate in good faith on working conditions. Hunt has withdrawn from negotiations. He claims that the deal is financially neutral. If so then what is his aim? Junior Doctors are the ones who work weekends already.

    He could stop the strike tommorow by returning to the negotiating table without preconditions and withdrawing his threat to impose the contract unilaterally.

    His aim is to create a 7 day a week health service where ultimately our very expensive labs, equipment and operating theatres are used every bit as much on a Saturday and Sunday as they are the other 5 days of the week. Under the present structure the unsocial hours payments would make that prohibitively expensive. In short, as I understand it, doctors will not lose out now but will lose out to some degree as the service evolves in this way.

    I am really struggling to find sympathy for such a stunningly rich and well paid group of people. My neighbour, a consultant in Ninewells, will soon retire on a pension of more than £60K a year at 60. Such rights are worth literally millions of pounds. I will, health permitting, be working into my 70s to help pay for it.
    The deal doesn't apply in Scotland.
    No but the pension entitlements of doctors are the same across the UK. We are talking about members of the top 1% of earners in the country here when rights like pensions are taken into account.
    £60k a year at 60 is a crazily huge pension pot.

    £30k at 65 is a million, so £60k at 60 must roughly be worth around £1.8 - £2.5 depending on if it is index linked.
    A family friend retired early on grounds of ill health but not before being promoted. The cost to the taxpayer will most probably run into the hundreds of thousands. I imagine this is really common throughout the public sector at senior levels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Are P Sector employees STILL on DB pension schemes ?!

    Seriously - they need to get onto DC like everyone else !

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Why has Tracey Crouch apologised for stating the obvious about people saving money on luxuries like Pay TV?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,354

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @Cyclefree

    Workers in essential services have to be pushed to the extreme to strike, but there is a reciprocal obligation. That is to honour independent pay awards (strangely these are overruled for Doctors but sancrosanct for MPs) and to negotiate in good faith on working conditions. Hunt has withdrawn from negotiations. He claims that the deal is financially neutral. If so then what is his aim? Junior Doctors are the ones who work weekends already.

    He could stop the strike tommorow by returning to the negotiating table without preconditions and withdrawing his threat to impose the contract unilaterally.

    His aim is to create a 7 day a week health service where ultimately our very expensive labs, equipment and operating theatres are used every bit as much on a Saturday and Sunday as they are the other 5 days of the week. Under the present structure the unsocial hours payments would make that prohibitively expensive. In short, as I understand it, doctors will not lose out now but will lose out to some degree as the service evolves in this way.

    I am really struggling to find sympathy for such a stunningly rich and well paid group of people. My neighbour, a consultant in Ninewells, will soon retire on a pension of more than £60K a year at 60. Such rights are worth literally millions of pounds. I will, health permitting, be working into my 70s to help pay for it.
    The deal doesn't apply in Scotland.
    No but the pension entitlements of doctors are the same across the UK. We are talking about members of the top 1% of earners in the country here when rights like pensions are taken into account.
    £60k a year at 60 is a crazily huge pension pot.

    £30k at 65 is a million, so £60k at 60 must roughly be worth around £1.8 - £2.5 depending on if it is index linked.
    The maximum pension pot permitted is 1 million. Anything in excess is taxed (at a 55% rate as I recall). It is possible that he preserved his pot under the old rules but that seems implausible if only sixty as he would have had to freeze payments more than five years ago.
    That is very recent and, he has told me, one of the reasons that he is retiring at 60. His effective tax rate if he continued to work would be very high indeed.

    My wife's comment is why do people in the public sector at this sort of level play the lottery? They have already won.

    Another way of looking at it is that his accumulated pension rights have been worth about £70K a year for each year he has worked for the NHS.

    When we are arguing about the necessity of cuts in WTC this is just obscene.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Are P Sector employees STILL on DB pension schemes ?!

    Seriously - they need to get onto DC like everyone else !

    That would be difficult where most of the schemes are unfunded so no investment income could be taken into account. As it is DC schemes are shoddy, poor, ineffective methods of retirement saving made worse by the very high rates of charges by UK pension companies.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @Cyclefree

    Workers in essential services have to be pushed to the extreme to strike, but there is a reciprocal obligation. That is to honour independent pay awards (strangely these are overruled for Doctors but

    He could stop the strike tommorow by returning to the negotiating table without preconditions and withdrawing his threat to impose the contract unilaterally.

    His aim is to create a 7 day a week health service where ultimately our very expensive labs, equipment and operating theatres are used every bit as much on a Saturday and Sunday as they are the other 5 days of the week. Under the present structure the unsocial hours payments would make that prohibitively expensive. In short, as I understand it, doctors will not lose out now but will lose out to some degree as the service evolves in this way.

    I am really struggling to find sympathy for such a stunningly rich and well paid group of people. My neighbour, a consultant in Ninewells, will soon retire on a pension of more than £60K a year at 60. Such rights are worth literally millions of pounds. I will, health permitting, be working into my 70s to help pay for it.
    The deal doesn't apply in Scotland.
    No but the pension entitlements of doctors are the same across the UK. We are talking about members of the top 1% of earners in the country here when rights like pensions are taken into account.
    £60k a year at 60 is a crazily huge pension pot.

    £30k at 65 is a million, so £60k at 60 must roughly be worth around £1.8 - £2.5 depending on if it is index linked.
    The maximum pension pot permitted is 1 million. Anything in excess is to.
    That is very recent and, he has told me, one of the reasons that he is retiring at 60. His effective tax rate if he continued to work would be very high indeed.

    My wife's comment is why do people in the public sector at this sort of level play the lottery? They have already won.

    Another way of looking at it is that his accumulated pension rights have been worth about £70K a year for each year he has worked for the NHS.

    When we are arguing about the necessity of cuts in WTC this is just obscene.
    The junior doctors of today will not get salaries like that, will not get pensions like that, will not get the same working conditions. They will get bullying management, tickbox training and heavy student debts to repay.

    The baby boomers have just left the dregs behind for the next generations to fight over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Lol !

    GO:

    Great to hear Narendra Modi confirm India has chosen to raise funds in Britain’s financial markets with a Railways Rupee Bond.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @Cyclefree

    Workers in essential services have to be pushed to the extreme to strike, but there is a reciprocal obligation. That is to honour independent pay awards (strangely these are overruled for Doctors but sancrosanct for MPs) and to negotiate in good faith on working conditions. Hunt has withdrawn from negotiations. He claims that the deal is financially neutral. If so then what is his aim? Junior Doctors are the ones who work weekends already.

    He could stop the strike tommorow by returning to the negotiating table without preconditions and withdrawing his threat to impose the contract unilaterally.

    His aim is to create a 7 day a week health service where ultimately our very expensive labs, equipment and operating theatres are used every bit as much on a Saturday and Sunday as they are the other 5 days of the week. Under the present structure the unsocial hours payments would make that prohibitively expensive. In short, as I understand it, doctors will not lose out now but will lose out to some degree as the service evolves in this way.

    I am really struggling to find sympathy for such a stunningly rich and well paid group of people. My neighbour, a consultant in Ninewells, will soon retire on a pension of more than £60K a year at 60. Such rights are worth literally millions of pounds. I will, health permitting, be working into my 70s to help pay for it.
    The deal doesn't apply in Scotland.
    No but the pension entitlements of doctors are the same across the UK. We are talking about members of the top 1% of earners in the country here when rights like pensions are taken into account.
    £60k a year at 60 is a crazily huge pension pot.

    £30k at 65 is a million, so £60k at 60 must roughly be worth around £1.8 - £2.5 depending on if it is index linked.
    The maximum pension pot permitted is 1 million. Anything in excess is taxed (at a 55% rate as I recall). It is possible that he preserved his pot under the old rules but that seems implausible if only sixty as he would have had to freeze payments more than five years ago.
    Not yet it's not. It's 1.25m if crystallised this year. LTA goes to 1m from April 2016. People will be able to claim a protection, 2 types.

    For LTA, a 50k pa db income is valued at 1m. A 20x factor applies.

    This is another hit to dc savers who would be lucky to get 30k pa annuity with 1m in their dc pot for the spouse and index features that db income gives
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited 2015 13
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are P Sector employees STILL on DB pension schemes ?!

    Seriously - they need to get onto DC like everyone else !

    That would be difficult where most of the schemes are unfunded so no investment income could be taken into account. As it is DC schemes are shoddy, poor, ineffective methods of retirement saving made worse by the very high rates of charges by UK pension companies.
    Really? The dc schemes and plans I see are sub 0.4% pa charges these days??? With pension Freedoms, improved death benefits, auto enrolment, up front tax relief.... they are a compelling option now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,139
    New Survation General Election poll

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 15% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    EU Referendum

    Remain 38%
    Leave 43%
    Undecided 19%
    http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are P Sector employees STILL on DB pension schemes ?!

    Seriously - they need to get onto DC like everyone else !

    That would be difficult where most of the schemes are unfunded so no investment income could be taken into account. As it is DC schemes are shoddy, poor, ineffective methods of retirement saving made worse by the very high rates of charges by UK pension companies.
    Really? The dc schemes and plans I see are sub 0.4% pa charges these days??? With pension Freedoms, improved death benefits, auto enrolment, up front tax relief.... they are a compelling option now.
    DC schemes deal in reality.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8m8 minutes ago

    On David Cameron's renegotiation:
    Likely to achieve a good deal: 22%
    Not likely to achieve a good deal: 56%
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Public sector pensions are often career average revalued earnings(care) than final salary so not as good but still great if you can get one.

    Mp scheme remains as good as it gets, if we could ask an ex mp what their db pension is based on how many years they were in it, then we'd soon see just how good it is!!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are P Sector employees STILL on DB pension schemes ?!

    Seriously - they need to get onto DC like everyone else !

    That would be difficult where most of the schemes are unfunded so no investment income could be taken into account. As it is DC schemes are shoddy, poor, ineffective methods of retirement saving made worse by the very high rates of charges by UK pension companies.
    Really? The dc schemes and plans I see are sub 0.4% pa charges these days??? With pension Freedoms, improved death benefits, auto enrolment, up front tax relief.... they are a compelling option now.
    My private pension is 0%. I only have to pay the fund AMCs which are low if I stick to trackers.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Interesting by-election win for the Greens tonight in Weymouth.

    Off travelling to SeanT country on Saturday ie Bangkok and on my way through Angkor Wat, Saigon and finally end up in Hanoi after 3 weeks - can't wait! Hopefully have time to post a bit more once I get back to blighty with the global sovereign debt crisis right now around the corner.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Public sector pensions are often career average revalued earnings(care) than final salary so not as good but still great if you can get one.

    Mp scheme remains as good as it gets, if we could ask an ex mp what their db pension is based on how many years they were in it, then we'd soon see just how good it is!!

    Scheme for MP's IIRC is a 40ths final salary scheme, completely unheard of elsewhere. Snouts in the trough comes to mind!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    MP_SE said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Are P Sector employees STILL on DB pension schemes ?!

    Seriously - they need to get onto DC like everyone else !

    That would be difficult where most of the schemes are unfunded so no investment income could be taken into account. As it is DC schemes are shoddy, poor, ineffective methods of retirement saving made worse by the very high rates of charges by UK pension companies.
    Really? The dc schemes and plans I see are sub 0.4% pa charges these days??? With pension Freedoms, improved death benefits, auto enrolment, up front tax relief.... they are a compelling option now.
    My private pension is 0%. I only have to pay the fund AMCs which are low if I stick to trackers.
    Good stuff.. not a passive cheerleader tho as great in bull markets, not so in bear!!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    New Survation General Election poll

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 15% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    EU Referendum

    Remain 38%
    Leave 43%
    Undecided 19%
    http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/

    Promising for leave, but until the public really starts paying attention to the campaign, I question the accuracy of all these referendum polls right now. Once the European sovereign debt crisis really flares up, I think the leave campaign will gain momentum and surprise a lot of people on here. Yes I'm about as anti-EU as can possibly be yet I regard myself as very pro-European, just happen to totally disagree with the whole EU project.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    HYUFD said:

    New Survation General Election poll

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 15% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    EU Referendum

    Remain 38%
    Leave 43%
    Undecided 19%
    http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/

    Peak peak Kipper? :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:
    So Con vote holds almost dead level whilst Lab loses 300 votes!

    Green +98
    Con -22
    Lab -305
    Almost snuck through the middle!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    hunchman said:

    Public sector pensions are often career average revalued earnings(care) than final salary so not as good but still great if you can get one.

    Mp scheme remains as good as it gets, if we could ask an ex mp what their db pension is based on how many years they were in it, then we'd soon see just how good it is!!

    Scheme for MP's IIRC is a 40ths final salary scheme, completely unheard of elsewhere. Snouts in the trough comes to mind!
    Used to be but it's 1/60ths now, I believe.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    Sajid Javid, leadership material - really??

    Watching him is an underwhelming experience ! He is embarrassing. You almost feel having to sympathise with him.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I had missed the fact, by the way, that Merkel has called for the reintroduction of the Dublin accords. So now that she has encouraged hundreds of thousands of migrants to come to Europe with the promise they will be welcome in Germany she is saying they should be sent back to the EU countries they pass through to get to Germany.

    It is no wonder the Hungarians are so pissed off.

    Presumably the other countries could retort by saying that since those migrants are already in a safe country (Germany) they have no need to leave it to come to their countries to claim asylum.

    Merkel has behaved very stupidly. She may be supported by Germans but if she wanted to make this a European remedy then she ought to have consulted other European states first before opening her mouth. It serves her right if now they tell her to get stuffed.

    I think Merkel will go down in history as one of the worst Western leaders of the earliest 21st Century.
    Germany has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the western world, a higher gdp per capita than we do and weathered the global economic crisis comparatively well, it also has generally sound finances, strong manufacturing and an excellent education system. She may have gone a bit overboard on this refugee issue but that comment is ridiculous, most countries would gladly swap Obama, Hollande, Cameron etc for Merkel
    Merkel is a truly great leader. On par with Willy Brandt.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    Sorry to hear about the stressful situation, cyclefree - hope all turns out well It's admirable that you're still debating diverse issues with that hanging over you - in a similar situation some years ago I briefly lost all interest in the wider world.

    Checked the last thread, and see that Reggiecide, after taking a potshot at my judgment on Germany and Merkel, hasn't been willing to put his money where his mouth is. Ah well!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,139
    hunchman said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Survation General Election poll

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 15% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    EU Referendum

    Remain 38%
    Leave 43%
    Undecided 19%
    http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/

    Promising for leave, but until the public really starts paying attention to the campaign, I question the accuracy of all these referendum polls right now. Once the European sovereign debt crisis really flares up, I think the leave campaign will gain momentum and surprise a lot of people on here. Yes I'm about as anti-EU as can possibly be yet I regard myself as very pro-European, just happen to totally disagree with the whole EU project.
    Some polls show In, some polls show Out ahead, I remain of the view it will be a narrow In
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,139
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Survation General Election poll

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 15% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    EU Referendum

    Remain 38%
    Leave 43%
    Undecided 19%
    http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/

    Peak peak Kipper? :D
    Perhaps only the start if they get a boost from EU ref
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,139
    edited 2015 13
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I had missed the fact, by the way, that Merkel has called for the reintroduction of the Dublin accords. So now that she has encouraged hundreds of thousands of migrants to come to Europe with the promise they will be welcome in Germany she is saying they should be sent back to the EU countries they pass through to get to Germany.

    It is no wonder the Hungarians are so pissed off.

    Presumably the other countries could retort by saying that since those migrants are already in a safe country (Germany) they have no need to leave it to come to their countries to claim asylum.

    Merkel has behaved very stupidly. She may be supported by Germans but if she wanted to make this a European remedy then she ought to have consulted other European states first before opening her mouth. It serves her right if now they tell her to get stuffed.

    I think Merkel will go down in history as one of the worst Western leaders of the earliest 21st Century.
    Germany has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the western world, a higher gdp per capita than we do and weathered the global economic crisis comparatively well, it also has generally sound finances, strong manufacturing and an excellent education system. She may have gone a bit overboard on this refugee issue but that comment is ridiculous, most countries would gladly swap Obama, Hollande, Cameron etc for Merkel
    Merkel is a truly great leader. On par with Willy Brandt.
    Agreed, night
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Survation General Election poll

    CON: 36% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 15% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb

    EU Referendum

    Remain 38%
    Leave 43%
    Undecided 19%
    http://survation.com/latest-eu-referendum-polling/

    Peak peak Kipper? :D
    Perhaps only the start if they get a boost from EU ref
    The argument from the Corbyn campaign during the leadership contest was that they could target UKIP voters instead of Tory ones, he doesn't seem to be making head way. Labour need to almost monopolize the anti-government vote.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited 2015 13

    The junior doctors of today will not get salaries like that, will not get pensions like that, will not get the same working conditions. They will get bullying management, tickbox training and heavy student debts to repay.

    You mean like most people that work in the private sector... its the price they pay for those private sector salaries the doctors seem to want. This dispute seems to be getting dangerously close to the definition of wanting to have ones cake and eat it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited 2015 13
    The new Survation poll once you exclude Don't Knows:

    Remain 48%
    Leave 52%

    Someone posted a comment recently saying it was YouGov giving Leave their best results so this is a departure from that.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Two Hillary Clinton stories this evening -

    She is going round telling the story of how she tried to join the Marines in 1975. She's been telling it for years, and the Washington Post finally decided to check it out and could not find any documentation to back it up, saying they don't think it happened. Minor stuff.

    This is not however. The FBI has - again - expanded its investigation into Hillary and the emails. The FBI has decided to do its own classification analysis of the emails, and will deal directly with the intel people, bypassing State which is very slow. So far it has been investigating if she broke the Espionage Act. It will now also investigate whether multiple statements violate a federal false statements statute, according to intelligence sources familiar with the ongoing case.

    False statements is how they got both Martha Stewart and David Petraeus. She could be in real trouble. The Feds don't expand investigations when they don't have anything.

    One scenario which hasn't been explored is that if the Feds want to indict but a political appointee nixes it, that could be devastating for her. That would quickly become public given the number of leaks in her case.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Tim_B said:

    Two Hillary Clinton stories this evening -

    She is going round telling the story of how she tried to join the Marines in 1975. She's been telling it for years, and the Washington Post finally decided to check it out and could not find any documentation to back it up, saying they don't think it happened. Minor stuff.

    This is not however. The FBI has - again - expanded its investigation into Hillary and the emails. The FBI has decided to do its own classification analysis of the emails, and will deal directly with the intel people, bypassing State which is very slow. So far it has been investigating if she broke the Espionage Act. It will now also investigate whether multiple statements violate a federal false statements statute, according to intelligence sources familiar with the ongoing case.

    False statements is how they got both Martha Stewart and David Petraeus. She could be in real trouble. The Feds don't expand investigations when they don't have anything.

    One scenario which hasn't been explored is that if the Feds want to indict but a political appointee nixes it, that could be devastating for her. That would quickly become public given the number of leaks in her case.

    Sanders vs Trump?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Two Hillary Clinton stories this evening -

    She is going round telling the story of how she tried to join the Marines in 1975. She's been telling it for years, and the Washington Post finally decided to check it out and could not find any documentation to back it up, saying they don't think it happened. Minor stuff.

    This is not however. The FBI has - again - expanded its investigation into Hillary and the emails. The FBI has decided to do its own classification analysis of the emails, and will deal directly with the intel people, bypassing State which is very slow. So far it has been investigating if she broke the Espionage Act. It will now also investigate whether multiple statements violate a federal false statements statute, according to intelligence sources familiar with the ongoing case.

    False statements is how they got both Martha Stewart and David Petraeus. She could be in real trouble. The Feds don't expand investigations when they don't have anything.

    One scenario which hasn't been explored is that if the Feds want to indict but a political appointee nixes it, that could be devastating for her. That would quickly become public given the number of leaks in her case.

    Sanders vs Trump?
    The election is a year away and we have yet to have a single primary vote.

    I think Sanders is unelectable. He's having trouble registering for primaries in some states because he's an independent running as a democrat. We're already at the the point that almost 3/4 of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction under Obama. He would be worse. Given Clinton's sprint leftwards it remains to be seen where she will end up on the political spectrum.

    I thought Carson and Trump would have imploded by now but so far it hasn't happened. Every Trump interview - and he does many - sounds pretty much the same. He doesn't do detail and it's starting to show painfully. Watching Carson interviews makes me want to reach for my iPod and play music waiting for the next word or until he opens his eyes.

    Utterly unscientifically I think currently it's Rubio's to lose but that might change with events.

    Short of indictment Clinton has the Dem nomination sown up. If she is indicted the Dems would be in uncharted territory, particularly if she already has the nomination. I doubt they'd turn to Sanders. I suspect they are already searching for an emergency candidate, just in case.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The USA has launched a drone strike targeting JIhadi John.

    Result as yet unknown.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016
    hunchman said:

    Interesting by-election win for the Greens tonight in Weymouth.

    Off travelling to SeanT country on Saturday ie Bangkok and on my way through Angkor Wat, Saigon and finally end up in Hanoi after 3 weeks - can't wait! Hopefully have time to post a bit more once I get back to blighty with the global sovereign debt crisis right now around the corner.

    Angkor Wat is really worth seeing. Take your time wandering around it. And look for the Chu Chi tunnels a bit N of Saigon/Ho Chi Minh City.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sorry to hear about the stressful situation, cyclefree - hope all turns out well It's admirable that you're still debating diverse issues with that hanging over you - in a similar situation some years ago I briefly lost all interest in the wider world.

    Checked the last thread, and see that Reggiecide, after taking a potshot at my judgment on Germany and Merkel, hasn't been willing to put his money where his mouth is. Ah well!

    Yes, I am sympathetic too. I have been a patient as well as a doctor and know what it is like waiting for results and investigations.

    But antagonising the workforce with an imposed contract with worse terms and conditions is not the way to improve either efficiency or dilligence in health care. If those Doctors who ordered test are not in the clinic to interpret them because they are rostered to work another day (or if they have voted with their feet) then the system is not better for it.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Increase in support for leaving the EU. 53% Leave to 47% Remain. Only one of Cameron’s reform demands match the public’s top 4 priorities:

    Survation is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by it’s rules.
This discussion has been closed.