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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview with 2 LAB defen
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview with 2 LAB defences, a Plaid one and an Indy one
Ogmore Vale on Bridgend (Ind defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 39, Independents 10, Liberal Democrats 3, Conservatives 1, Plaid Cymru 1 (Labour majority of 24)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Independent 505 (55%), Labour 414 (45%)
Candidates duly nominated: Dhanisha Patel (Lab), Sally Hyde (UKIP), Ralph Shepherd (Ind), Tim Thomas (Plaid), Jamie Wallis (Con)
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bigjohnowls said:
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And ruining the NHS
On almost every measure, the NHS in England is in a worse position than this time last year.
And as we enter winter, that spells bad news: last year's was the worst for a generation with A&E waits hitting their highest levels since targets were introduced in 2004.
But the pressures are now spreading more to other parts of the system. Once in hospital, doctors are finding it difficult to discharge patients because the support services in the community needed for the most vulnerable are not available.
Waits for diagnostic tests are lengthening and the key cancer target has been missed for well over a year.
Even on routine treatment - hips and knees - the signs are not good. The target is being met, but on the current trajectory it will be missed by the end of the year. The weather may be mild, but winter has come early for the NHS.
I said:
So it is confirmed. Labour is indeed the Starks. And we all know what happens to them.
Edit. And as ever, thanks Harry.
Finbarr lucky man Saunders
Incidentally re the 45 Peers announced by Cameron in the Dissolution honours list (C - 26, L - 8, LD - 11) - the number introduced so far and thus eligible to vote as of today now stands by my count at C - 18, L - 1, LD - 5.
So Con getting a short term boost by getting their Peers introduced first. Impossible to tell but the vote on Wed could easily be on an absolute knife edge. I think the Govt must be favourite to lose but I said that on IVR which they somehow pulled out of the bag - so who knows!
I assume that since the Malta deal didn't go through we didn't have to stump up.
Between this common tone of anti-EU chat and the terror of TTIP, I wonder who really believes that Britain hors EU would be a free-trading restoration of Victoriana?
David Cameron wrote to his local council complaining about cuts to frontline services http://www.itv.com/news/2015-11-12/david-cameron-writes-to-his-local-council-criticising-significant-cuts-to-frontline-services/ …
What next complaining to the NHS that waiting lists are growing
@thespainreport: LATEST: Fitch Downgrades Catalonia To Junk Bond Status Because Of Separatist Declaration
https://t.co/yIS5y96Tph
http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/lords/composition-of-the-lords/
First remember all hereditaries get replaced by same Party so no attrition there.
Now, I've done a quick count of Life Peers appointed since May 2010 - these are, APPROX:
Con - 105, Lab - 53, LD - 51
Now, one would assume these people are very unlikely to retire / die soon - obviously a few might, but not many.
So this means that the pool of Life Peers appointed pre May 2010 is as follows:
Con - 97, Lab - 155, LD - 57
So one would expect that Lab + LD together (which is what matters as they are voting together) should suffer quite a bit more attrition than Con.
Only caveat is that I suspect there are a higher proportion of Con Peers dating back pre 1997 and these will be the most likely to die / retire. But that should be a fairly small part of the total.
It is no wonder the Hungarians are so pissed off.
"I would not start from here" is not a useful way to begin!
Refusal to accept any more migrants
Increase the number of refugees being taken from the camps in Turkey and Jordan so people know they gave more chance of resettlement if they stay where they are than if they try to make the journey.
None of it is easy nor nice but right now Merkel's policy is killing more people. Just as we said it would.
Merkel has behaved very stupidly. She may be supported by Germans but if she wanted to make this a European remedy then she ought to have consulted other European states first before opening her mouth. It serves her right if now they tell her to get stuffed.
That might not have been the question but it does seem to be the allegation.
at this difficult time for patients Mr Owls you will doubtless be appalled by recent revelations of the naked greed of many senior NHS bosses.
The link below has the figures for the last 15 years - see page 12 - which is 16/69.
The numbers are for January each year - so you can see how much the numbers have changed just this year - comparing now to January 2015.
One thing that needs pointing out is there is a complete misconception that the number of Peers is growing rapidly - whereas in fact it isn't!
Today there are 820 - including the 45 announced a few weeks ago in the Dissolution Honours list. In January 2012 (see link), there were 787. So the number of Peers is up just 33 in almost four years!
What is happening is that there is a lot of turnover - there are a lot of appointments but lots are retiring and dying (and some are taking leave of absence).
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/research/parliament/house-of-lords/enoughisenough/Enough_is_enough_-_regulating_prime_ministerial_appointments_to_the_Lords.pdf
http://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/Backpain/Pages/Backexercises.aspx
The principle is to build up core muscle strength, though losing weight is an additional plus.
Gentle regular movement seems to work; don't stand, sit, or lie for too long.
Running may help the back, but not sure it's too good for other places (e.g. ankles, knees).
However it is ridiculous that the NHS is paying some bosses excessive sums.
I have had many offers to work at upwards of triple NHS rates including one of £600 a day, never taken them always worked for NHS rates.
All this money is meant to be making their countries better and buying us influence. So let's bloody well use it.
And if that influence turns out to be so much hot air, well let's stop paying the money and use it instead to make shelter on one of the many relatively uninhabited islands in the Atlantic belonging to various EU countries and put the migrants there until (a) either they return to their home countries; or (b) they find an alternative country to welcome them, which may of course include those European countries who choose to have them rather than those forced to have them.
1st Dec is emergency cover only, 8th Dec and 16th Dec will be all out. There were instructions for us non-striking grades too.
I think that like Scargill Mr Hunt has chosen a poor moment to provoke a strike.
I think only a very brutal approach could reverse the flow. Life is pretty awful in most of these places.
The measures required are not going to be possible in any democratic society.
We may wish to send them to other states instead. Whether that is practical is an open question.
Do you think the relatives of all those who die as a result of the doctor's actions will be so chipper?
#tomorrowspaperstoday https://t.co/j7MHKW6yeY
As predicted in some quarters, Jeremy Corbyn is looking to change the rule book on leadership elections to his advantage.
I found your Nature article very thought provoking.
There were a couple of points you made which really resonated with me, despite me working in a very different sort of industry. Your comments about:-
1. employees recognizing "that the operating environment is complex and changeable, and that mindlessly following standard procedures without paying attention to what else is going on in the environment can be dangerous"; and
2. metrics becoming a target
are so applicable elsewhere, as was the statement that employees need to report red flags like changes in behaviour. I think it is all too easy for organisations to fall into the trap of measuring everything which can possibly be measured while forgetting that measurement is not the same as evaluation and that it's the latter which will alert those who really look at what is going on whether there is or may be a problem.
Thank you for sharing it. I hope you won't mind if I incorporate some of your general points in my own "Bankers, Please Behave" talks.
On the eve of the ballot he made an offer by press release to his friends in the Murdoch media. He has never attempted to negotiate. He has provoked this strike (the ballot closes on Wed 18th) but I will be astonished if the juniors blink. I have not met one yet who is willing to cave in.
Hunt has a real battle coming. The Senior doctors are not going to pull Hunts nuts out of the fire.
So the question is who is let in and the numbers. And the rest will need to be shut out. That may sound brutal and blunt. But it's no more brutal than encouraging people to risk their lives coming here. And - bluntly - European governments owe their primary duty to their own citizens not to everyone else in the world.
"How Sweden, the most open country in the world, was overwhelmed by migrants
Sweden used to pride itself on giving a warm welcome to outsiders. But as the refugee crisis grows, so too does its sense of injustice"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/sweden/11992479/How-Sweden-the-most-open-country-in-the-world-was-overwhelmed-by-migrants.html
High-flying Tory MP and former soldier Thomas Tugendhat has written an impassioned letter to Jeremy Corbyn demanding the Labour leader condemn Seamus Milne after we reported the top aide’s shocking views on our Armed Forces.
Mr Tugendhat wrote tonight: “You have spoken eloquently about wanting to see a ‘kinder politics’ and I welcome this. This is your opportunity to lead by example.”
He added: “As the leader of the Labour Party and Her Majesty’s Opposition, I urge you to consider the implication of having people on your team whose views support violent extremists rather than democrats.
“I hope you will take this opportunity to condemn Mr Milne’s remarks. To stay silent would be wrong and may be seen as endorsing the views of those who choose violence instead of political debate.”
http://bit.ly/1PECzWY
'The leader of the junior doctors has every reason to want to avoid Saturday work – he runs a wedding photography business on the side.
Johann Malawana, 35, who chairs the BMA's junior doctors committee, offers 'Gold', 'Platinum' and 'Diamond' packages – and a special discount where one of the couple works for the NHS.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3308843/What-want-No-work-Saturdays-m-weekend-wedding-photographer-says-leader-junior-doctors.html#ixzz3rJkCXfwm
But if the number of refugees - even within the terms of the 1951 Convention - are overwhelming, then I think we may have to think the unthinkable and simply say that we can no longer operate under that regime. That even for genuine refugees there will have to be a numerical limit.
Or other countries - in Asia, Australasia, the US, South America, China - will have to take them. And how likely is that, do you suppose?