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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far punters are putting their money on an EU Referendum
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far punters are putting their money on an EU Referendum REMAIN
This is a chart that we’ll see a lot over the coming months as we get closer to the election day in the EU referendum. My plan is to update it regularly showing changes so we can see how gambling sentiment is changing.
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I take the "people" behind the GE 2015 results:
Party GE2015 Exp.IN Score
Con 37% - 50% - 18.5%
Lab 31% - 70% - 21.7%
LD 8% - 75% - 6.0%
UKIP 13% - 10% - 1.3%
Others 11% - 70% - 7.7% [ SNP, PC, IND , NI ]
Total 100% 55.2% for IN
For OUT to win they have to win close to 65% of Tory voters, I do not think that will be possible.
In terms of betting though I am on Leave, on 3/1 or so. Already I am significantly in the Green. The polls will tighten as we get closer to the day so expect to be able to have an all green position on the night.
I think the poll will be next year but probably the autumn.
What we don't know is whether it is the thin end of the wedge - i.e. will it lead to 16 year olds voting in all elections.
What's happened is that the unelected Europhile losers in the Lords - the likes of Kinnock and Ashdown - may combine to alter the bill to give the vote to 16- and 17-year olds. Cameron has indicated that he might live with that although I would expect at least one further shot at reversing that clause when it returns to the Commons.
The fact is that including them in the referendum vote will mean having to revise the electoral register, a process that will likely take a year or so, so ruling out an early date. While amending the register on a sign-up basis could be done more quickly than if it's part of the annual registration process, I'm not sure the Electoral Commission would be happy with that approach. Even if the Commission were content that an accelerated process were permissible and were it carried out, there'd probably still be uncertainty over the process right up to close to the campaign proper, with Court challenges and the rest. Cameron has clearly taken the view that if a tactical retreat is necessary then it's better to back down on this than risk losing control over the date.
It's to be remembered that in the sycophantic world of pb Tories Dave walks on water.
Nothing Dave ever does is good enough. Dave is a seriously good politician and a v good PM, several cuts above the likes of Farage.
The only way Leave can win this is if Cameron comes back from his negotiations and says that is not good enough. Of course those committed to Leave don't believe that he would ever do that so they attack him relentlessly. Thus making their own prediction all the more likely of course.
There are a lot of lessons to be learned by both sides from the Indyref. One is that it is fatal not to have a single, clear alternative which Leave coalesces on and which enables their spokesmen to give credible answers to hard questions. I see no sign at all of that happening.
Another, from the Unionist campaign, is that a campaign that is built on fear and negativity is not as attractive as it should be. Darling and his ilk found it far too hard to say what a great country this is and how proud we are to be a part of it. The Remain campaign needs to learn from his mistakes.
British inventor wanted to scrap EU energy labelling rules, claiming they allowed rivals to achieve misleadingly good efficiency ratings.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/11989054/James-Dyson-loses-EU-battle-over-vacuum-cleaners.html
This is as good an example of EU corruption and inefficiency as you will read anywhere, and how all entrepreneurs are likely to suffer from the bureaucrats dead hand.
I'd fully agree on the necessity of positivity for Remain. A grudging, least-worst, vote for In is in effect simply a delayed Out.
Margot Parker MEP is on board. “I personally bought a Dyson last week but had I known this ECJ judgment was coming I would have bought two of them.” Clown's overpaid if she can splash out on a couple.
For many the labels are quite a useful pointer to which products to avoid. Still, the billionaire Dyson has garnered much free publicity for his expensive vacuum cleaners.
As Cameron said, of course Britain could survive outside the EU but those in favour of that need to explain why it will be better and address the downsides. And not by the same sort of fantasy nonsense that the Nationalists did.
Power for the sake of power is all you're interested in, you have no concept of principles or sticking by what you believe in.
This is the party of "the living wage", even though the Tories objected initially to the minimum wage. This govt is worse than Brown for buying votes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34708742
It appears that there is a Labour amendment to The EU Referendum Bill to add 16 year olds into the franchise. Doesn't appear to be Cameron pushing for it.
There are plenty of bloody fools who think that 16 year olds are fit to vote, but as far as I can see Cameron hasn't yet become one.
For example vacuum cleaner ratings would apply within the EEA as well as the EU surely?
Note: now getting vacuum cleaner ads in the banner!
I disagree that they should have to say how it would be negotiated. That would be open season for BSE and the Government to phone up their international contacts to say why they'd never agree to such a deal, even if in reality they would.
Britain leaving the EU bears no comparison to Scottish independence. The proposal to return to the status quo ante-bellum prior to 1973, when we were members of EFTA, is an unremarkable one.
The Scottish referendum was a reserved issue and Cameron didn't block extending the franchise to 16/17 year olds.
I would be highly surprised if there was a large turnout, and on a motivational scale, Leave 'want it more'.
The 45+ age group tends towards Leave.
Once the pro-Europe but unregistered youth, and the ineligible, non-UK London vote are removed from the equation things start to look much dicier for Remain.
That probably moved the indyref from a 65/35 result to a 55/45, and a 10% swing is no mean feat.
Leave should do the same: the objective here if a win is out of the question is to run Remain very close, so that the issue isn't closed down for a generation. Losing by a smaller margin that Yes did in Scotland last year would probably be enough to ensure it stays simmering in the background.
Tactical masterstroke.
I think the turnout will be more like a GE than the Euros or the AV referendum.
If the polls shows the status quo will win, then the campaign will be a damp squib. If it's close or even a rogue poll shows Leave ahead it could be quite lively.
Ironic in a way because it is precisely the nature of our relationship to the EU, including those all-important EU elections, that the referendum will determine.
If 42% were willing to turnout for AV then far more will turnout for such a critical vote. Ironically the best hope for the Leavers is a low-key campaign sufficiently dull to keep the turnout low. I don't think the kippers and their fellow travellers are capable of this though!
Remain have the lead among the under 40's, for sure.
If it's a big thing like a freezer or washer or whatever - fair enough.
Can't see that happening at all for an EU vote.
If the unionist side in the Scots referendum found it hard to sell a positive message about a political union that was 300 years old, and featured a common language, common monarchy and extensive shared history including fighting side-by-side in two world wars...
...how difficult is it going to be to sell a positive vision of a 40-year old political union between the UK and the EU which features none of these things?
The answer is 'impossible'. Forty years ago the 'Yes' side had some success portraying Europe as 'the future' but Britain's experiences in the EU since are unlikely to have reinforced that view. And Europe's serious relative economic decline isn't consistent with such a picture either.
Hence an almost total concentration on financial scare stories, most of which are entirely bogus.
There are many things about the EU that I like, enjoy and make my life better. Not just me either which is why younger people are so much more positive about it.
Their raw data has a tiny leaning towards out among Tories.
The percentage swing required from the current position is not very big. Just a few days of Euro-mess in the press.
But yes, I do think it's the thin end of the wedge and it will come at elections in due course. All limits are abritrary (there is a case for suggesting that people who feel able to make a decision should be allowed to vote at any age! - are we sure that every adult is more judicious than every child?) but basically kids grow up faster and most 16 year olds as comparably mature to most 18 year olds. I'm not sure it will always benefit the left as some hope or fear, though.
Why isn't the 'remain' campaign talking about all these wonderful things then?
Nor am I sure of your emphasis on 1715?
I remember my Wolf Cub badge
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/
My joy is qualified by the fact that some obscure blokes called Prince William and David Beckham did even better. Oh well. :-)
You could equally say they are older and wiser heads, with a lot of experience, and more likely to make informed decisions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34676281
Very odd how no one noticed it was a very strange organisation before 2010.
I like the EWTD and other social protections, ability to retire to the sun, the ability to hire European staff with a minimum of hassle, the environmental approach on a continent wide basis, Fox jr like being able to take a Masters in the EU without needing to pay fees etc etc.
I even like the fact that vacuum manufacturers do not need to apply for 28 different energy assessments.
I also like the redistribution of taxes so that the historically poor parts of Europe develop to a level historically only seen in NW Europe economically and socially. Iberia, the Balkans and the old Communist block are much freer, wealthier and generally pleasant because we have helped them via the EU.
But that is enough banging on about Europe for one morning!