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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Oldham UKIP needs to be bettering or matching its Heywoo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Oldham UKIP needs to be bettering or matching its Heywood and Middleton performance to show it still has momentum
Because it is the first by-election of the current parliament and because of its proximity to Heywood & Middleton where UKIP came very close just over a year ago expectations are running very high for UKIP in Oldham.
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Except UKIP's MP is voting to cut them.
I also think Labour might take exactly the wrong message from such a result, ignoring their own slide in support which would be masked by a similar slide for UKIP.
There are also circumstances I've said I'd vote Out even if Cameron says In.
BTW Isn't it time UKIP got themselves a new logo? The current one is dreadfully old-fashioned, as well as bizarrely focused on the currency.
Nailed on for second place but second places are meaningless as FPTP is here to stay.
The turnout market that shadsy has offered remains superb value at 8/11 for under 44.5%. Turnout in Manchester Central in 2012 was 28.2% and 36% in Heywood & Middleton in 2014. In an apparently-safe Labour seat in early December, why would the turnout be higher this time?
Transparent reverse expectations management from Mike methinks
This day in 1990...
Majorsrise @majorsrise 2h2 hours ago
Mrs Thatcher has returned to Chequers to prepare for her speech to the Lord Mayor’s Banquet.
Majorsrise @majorsrise 2h2 hours ago
Sir Geoffrey Howe meanwhile is at home working on his resignation speech.
ICM, for the Sunday Correspondent: Labour 55%; Conservatives 28%; Liberal Democrats 7%; Greens 6%.
Majorsrise @majorsrise 3h3 hours ago
Asked how they would vote if Mr Heseltine were Tory leader, the Labour lead fell to 48%, while the Tory figure rose to 41.
https://twitter.com/majorsrise/status/664429894118436864
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/lib-dem-leader-tim-farron-10399785#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Contact me to bet or reply on here
Oldham by election
Labour win by
0-5 8/1
5-10 11/2
10-15 5/2
15-20 5/2
20-25 11/2
25+ 8/1
Labour lose 8/1
Match bets
Ukip 1/6 vs Con 7/2
Con 1/6 vs Libs 7/2
Labour winning margin uo 15.5 5/6
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/11/eus-deep-dilemmas-over-refugees-laid-bare-at-malta-summit
The Lib Dem share may recover a bit, if only because it's fallen so far, but it's difficult to see the positive case there too.
https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/664453867820617728
Id expect UKIP to win a By Election in a Tory seat in Essex or Kent were there to be one
£50 Turnout Under 44.5 @ 6-8
£45 Lib Dem under 5% @ 1.9
£120 Tories over Yellow Peril @ 1-6
£75 Labour @ 1-5.
'Vote Nigel. Get Jezzer'.
http://order-order.com/2015/11/11/seumas-milnes-closeness-to-guardian-editor/
"The couple have been close friends for years and Kath is known to have always loved his column."
As for domestic politics being dominated by the referendum, I thought that Europe as an issue didn't swing votes?
The idea that because someone committed to 'Leave' should not state how unimpressed they are with Cameron's 'renogiation' thus far is ridiculous and wholly without precedent.
I do like Plato and appreciate her contributions, but I also think the post is quite telling in terms if looking at things in quite narrow tribal/politico terms as opposed to looking at the country. It might be great news for me that Cameron's negotiating points are a sham in terms of a few more votes for 'leave', but it's obviously not good news for the country, which is why it upsets me rather than delights me.
It's policy seems to be one of keeping us out of the EU so that white supremacy can rule in places like Oldham.
UKIP remain in the "fortunate" position of perpetually losing, so they can shift and twist with impunity.
Labour Michael Meacher 23,630 54.8%
UKIP Francis Arbour 8,892 20.6%
Conservative Kamran Ghafoor 8,187 19.0%
Liberal Democrat Garth Harkness 1,589 3.7%
Green Simeon Hart 839 1.9%
Majority 14,738 34.2
Turnout 43,137 59.6%
I'd predict a turnout of 40%
Labour 50%
Ukip 30%
Tory 15%
Lib 5%
Everyone will claim credit when actually only half a dozen people will give a toss
'We' could easily build them, and it would be much easier with modern kit and organisation.
You must also remember (as you undoubtedly know) that the great pyramids were at the end of a long evolution of pyramids, from mud-brick tomb covers, through 'simple' stepped structures, to the grand pyramids. As such, the technological, societal and organisational skills and structures required did not spring into existence overnight, but evolved.
You cannot take the building of the Giza pyramids out of that context (unlike some of the more 'interesting' theories, which say the smaller pyramids were later third-rate attempts to copy the Giza pyramids).
It'd be like taking Salisbury Cathedral with its amazing spire out of the context of all the churches and cathedrals that were built before it."
It is the accuracy of the building of the pyramids that we would not be able to repeat. Numerous building developers/architects etc have been simply flummoxed at how they did it and have stated that you could not build to that accuracy today. Each side of the great pyramid is accurate to less than 60mm, this despite the base area being 13 acres.
The ceiling of one of the chambers is made up of 75 ton blocks of granite. They have been cut so accurately that they require no cement product to join them, they butt to each other so perfectly that you cannot get a scaple between them. A boeing 737 at full take off load weighs 75 tons. How did they cut the granite it so accurately using only copper tools on granite and then lift each stone into place. Remember no levers, no wheels.Have you seen the size of crane that is needed to lift 75 tons? Salisbury Cathedral is amazing but these pyramids are 100 times more amazing. It is a shame that the pyramid cover stones were removed in the 12th Century as these covered the entire surface of the pyramid and were cut incredibly accurately so that the whole of the pyramid was polished and smooth
Another interesting momument is the Serapeum of Saqqara. here sacred cows were buried in huge granite sarcophagus. Again these were carved out of 50-100 ton blacks of granite to amazing accuracy, the square in each bottom corner is perfect to a 1/100 of a mm. Again all they had was copper chisels
Heidi Allen has suggested cancelling the inheritance tax cut in order to keep tax credits.
The Tories still regularly poll 15-20% in safe Labour seats; by 2010 Labour were polling sub 5% in much of the South (obviously that's changed now).
Of course what Osbo hasn't factored in is those currently earning £10 ph, is the whole country getting a 25% pay rise or just the lowest paid?
Perhaps he's aiming for a Mao type society where we all get paid the same.
They are different in one key factor...
Afternoon all.
We’ve had five years of being told the voters aren’t interested in the EU. - What's changed ?
I would point you at data about how they initially surveyed the baseline for the trigonometrical survey of Britain (one end of which is now under Heathrow airport - I've always wanted to see the cannon marking the spot).
I would therefore contend that we could build to that accuracy today, and would be interested in proof otherwise. Have they lifted the blocks to ensure that the surfaces are flush all the way through, or is it just at the visible edges? The answer is simple: they had the time, manpower and the will to do the work with such accuracy.
I haven't hears of the Serapeum of Saqqara - I'll have a look at it, thanks.
I'm not saying that what the ancients did (not just in Egypt, but elsewhere) was amazing, but we could replicate the feats today,
All I'm saying is, when I was ill several years ago, I was only capable of working a couple of afternoons a week, for a salary which was not enough to live on. Tax credits gave me the option of taking that work while still getting my income topped up enough to live on; had tax credits not been there I would've stayed unemployed, which was not what I wanted, and which the Tories (according to their rhetoric) supposedly don't want either.
In 1997 we were spending 64bn on welfare.
In 2010 after 13 years of Labour brilliance we were spending 111bn.
Leaving aside the length of the post without snips, which I am sure the ancient Egyptians coud not mannage, I am not at all sure you are correct about the inability of modern constructuction to build within 60mm.
A few blocks were very heavy but most are less than 3 or 4 tonnes.
Several previous pyramid projects ended in failure and the later ones had generations of experience to build them and quite a bit of time to do it. The heavy blocks could have been sized and positioned in situ at a certain amount of leisure.
"Merkel, however, is increasingly lonely and embattled. Policymakers say privately that she is looking for a way to back down without losing face."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/11/eric-pickles-says-vote-leave-campaign-should-be-denied-lead-status
I have been an employer for nearly 10 years and have been told on a great number of occasions by people (both potential employees in interviews and existing employees offered extra work) that they are "not allowed to work more than 16 hours" or they'll lose their benefits.
16 hours are seen as a cap not a minimum amount of work. This has nothing to do with sickness and is entirely to do with welfare.
Meanwhile Corbyn etc have Blanchflower aka "5 million unemployed" as an advisor.
"My Twitter hope for Oldham is that we don't get these constant "getting great reception on the doorstep" Tweets. from campaigners."
Well if NickPalmer can stay away from it......
Gordon Brown gets increasingly irritated as this interview goes on, and ends on a notably sour note http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/brown-osborne-rip-tax-credit-cuts/31816 …
All before 9pm water shed.
gnarfff
God that's not a place I want to revisit.