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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi’s guide to the Irish election part 2
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi’s guide to the Irish election part 2
As I mentioned in Part 1, an understanding the voting system is essential to understanding Irish politics. There are 40 constituencies which this time will elect a total of 158 TDs, by Single Transferable Vote (STV). Each constituency elects either 3, 4 or 5 TDs. Voters rank the candidates. The first-preference votes are counted first.
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You may also wish to remember the two mutually exclusive trends picked up the polling companies in the run up to the GE (until they strangely enough coincided at a position where nobody could be that far adrift from any other company), and the poll that one company refused to publish because it didn't "feel right" - i.e. it didn't match the polling companies' group think, it just happened to be as it turned out accurate.
In short if you believe anything that the polling companies come up with is anything other than massaged figures, and figures massaged to suit someone's needs, then you need treatment.'
As I have consistently pointed out more of the final polls in 2015 showed the Tories ahead than Labour even if they got the margin wrong and these polls in Wales show a shift from Plaid and LD to Labour, NOT a shift from Tories to Labour so it seems entirely plausible to me. I expect Labour to get its best results in Wales and London next May and top the poll in both, even if it performs relatively poorly in the English council elections and faces a fight to stay ahead of the Tories in second place in Scotland
*grumble*
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/revealed-fianna-fail-prepared-to-back-minority-fine-gael-government-31454259.html
Thanks again Richard for a great article.
No. If you know that you have a bomb, then the probability of you having a bomb is 1. But the probability of any if the *other* passengers having a bomb is independent of your decision and remains the same whether you bring one or not. Your decision to bring a bomb does not affect their decision - they don't know you.
Funnily enough, I'm one of those annoying individuals who rarely gets irked by waiting for hours. I find it rather relaxing to have things entirely beyond my control. I'd be thanking the UK Ambassador even when stuck in Sharm for a week.
Maybe I missed my purpose by never being a hostage?
I think Irish Labour will come into its senses and not repeat the experience of Germany and the UK,where the minor coalition partner gets shafted Lib-Dem style.SF and the Indies know this too.The German model again suggests 13-8 fav on FF/FG coalition is right but might there be value in FG minority if FF was to change course-as a result of water charges perhaps-an 8-1 saver perhaps.
A straight dutch pays 18%.
"It is a matter of serious concern that the chief of the defence staff has today intervened directly in issues of political dispute. It is essential in a democracy that the military remains political neutral at all times," Mr Corbyn said.
"By publicly taking sides in current political arguments, Sir Nicholas Houghton has clearly breached that constitutional principle. Accordingly, I am writing to the defence secretary to ask him to take action to ensure that the neutrality of the armed forces is upheld."
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/11/08/jeremy-corbyns-nuclear-we_n_8502836.html?1446991690&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
The General ought to have been more guarded in his comments, but it would be odd if the CDS didn't have a view on the implications of Corbyn's policies. But convention is convention, and that is to remain silent.
Quite why the tourists in Egypt are whinging I can't think. They went there for the facilities to enjoy a holiday. The facilities are still there, they are not under threat. So if their holiday is extended because of the problems what are they whining about?
I suppose if you can mentally get over the fact that you have no control of the situation and you might as well have a three week holiday instead of a two week one, it makes sense.
When it goes entirely beyond my control - it's marvellous. Zero pressure. I was rather envious of colleagues trapped in penguin colonies for days post 9/11 flight groundings!
Your second point is that which Miss P was, I think, making. When things go out of control and there is nothing you can do then the best thing is to relax and enjoy the ride. Why get stressed about something you cannot affect?
It’s a bit slower to count than FPTP, but you can have it quick or you can have it right!
He did ok this morning.
One thing that the coverage does not really convey (perhaps because it is incomprehensible) is the scale of the carnage, particularly in WW1
After the Cenotaph parade ended, I wandered down to the War Memorial in the local village.
It has 8 names from WWII inscribed upon it.
It has 61 from WWI
Given the size of the village in 1914, that is a huge chunk of the adult male population.
There is also a stately home nearby dating back to Tudor times, which passed to the National Trust when all the male heirs to the title and land were killed in WWI
Unimaginable, and yet reality.
If we did introduce D’Hondt, I would agree with you about open primaries.
It may be bias as you see it but its absolutely true.
I walked by the Cenotaph every day and it gave me pause every time. The BBC coverage showed Corbyn after the ceremony went to Horseguards where he was standing chatting with people and (according to commentary) applauding groups as they passed.
He did ok this morning.
One thing that the coverage does not really convey (perhaps because it is incomprehensible) is the scale of the carnage, particularly in WW1
After the Cenotaph parade ended, I wandered down to the War Memorial in the local village.
It has 8 names from WWII inscribed upon it.
It has 61 from WWI
Given the size of the village in 1914, that is a huge chunk of the adult male population.
There is also a stately home nearby dating back to Tudor times, which passed to the National Trust when all the male heirs to the title and land were killed in WWI
Unimaginable, and yet reality.
As Mr Prasannan's comments, they are increasingly banal.
1. The betting odds have shifted slightly, with FG/Lab now 7/2.
2. There has been a new poll this weekend, Millward Brown/Sunday Independent: FG 29%, FF 24%, SF 21%, Labour 7%, Others 19%. That's broadly consistent with other recent polls, and provides no comfort for Labour: Adrian Kavanagh's seat projection on those figures is FG 60, FF 40, SF 33, Labour 0 (!), Others 25.
3. Unfortunately the hyperlinks in the article somehow got stripped out. The most important one is the one to Adrian Kavanagh's site:
http://adriankavanaghelections.org/
On the FG/Lab pact:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0914/727738-coalitions-work-not-yet-complete-taoiseach/
On speculation on what FF might do:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/revealed-fianna-fail-prepared-to-back-minority-fine-gael-government-31454259.html
4. Antifrank is right that the bet on a minority FG government could well be good value. Everything depends on whether Labour recover or not; on current polling, they are just below the critical point. They don't need to recover much to start winning a reasonable of seats. If they can creep back up over about 10% on first prefs then things will look a lot better for them. Since both FG and Labour have explicitly said they want the coalition to continue, I think that if Labour do get more than a derisory seat count then a continuation of the coalition is very likely. If Labour don't manage that, then a minority FG government looks likely. I don't think we'll see an FF/FG coalition almost whatever happens.
Yes you usually see a great disproportion between losses.
However some villages will have fewer WW1 names in proportion. This is because at the beginning of the WW1 certain groups joined up en mass from the same area into the same unit. Later we had conscription and recruits were distributed more evenly.
In WW1 we were involved in a continental wide mass war for 4 solid years. We were only involved in continental warfare for about 1 year in WW2. During that time our ground losses were comparable.
Corbyn looked to be chatting with friends/acquaintances afterwards, which is hardly surprising. I would have thought there would be an official reception for the politicos, but maybe not.
Is it possible that he has worked out that these commemorations are remembrances of the dead and not some glorification of war. I believe he is going on to some anti war protest later today, which again is hardly surprising.
EDIT Yaqoob stood in the 2010 general election for the Respect Party in the Birmingham Hall Green constituency,[11] and came second to Roger Godsiff of the Labour Party, trailing by 3,799 votes. Yaqoob's 12,240 votes was an increase of 13.9%, with an 11.7% vote swing from Labour to Respect.[12] The Green Party had stood down its candidate in favour of Yaqoob after a members vote
The Green Party leader Caroline Lucas stated she believed "that Salma will make a very good MP".[14] The retiring Labour MP Lynne Jones had also backed Yaqoob's candidacy ahead of Labour's Godsiff, saying "Salma Yaqoob is an excellent candidate of great ability who, as a councillor, has shown that she works hard for her constituents. I have a lot of time for her." and "In the Hall Green constituency ... I am not happy with the endorsement of the Labour candidate".[15] During the campaign, Yaqoob was offered a choice of two 'safe seats' by the Labour Party, one in Birmingham and one in the Black Country. She declined both, stating, "If it was just about my career it would have been a nice move, but it is not all about me".[16]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salma_Yaqoob
You second point is however well made. I shall get back on a hobbyhorse of mine and state that an infantryman in the Normandy campaign in 1944 was more likely to suffer death or wounds than an infantryman in the Somme campaign of 1916.
Somebody asked the question recently, if the Corbynistas and the realists in the PLP engage in a bloody fight to the death, who might be the last man (or woman) standing to take over the leadership?
Could it possiblty be Ed?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/poll-public-optimism-about-future-at-its-highest-level-since-the-crash-34179547.html
Good figures there for both parties of government, even if Labour don't so far seem to be gaining in the headline first-pref figures.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Apart from that...
I think there are some villages which escaped WWI but had casualties in WWII, but I must admit I can't name any off the top of my head.
EDIT: Some information here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-23470846
On a side note, as part of a village history project, I did some research into the names on my local WW1 memorial and found it listed four men who survived the war. Three died soon afterwards, though from illnesses not wounds, and one who was discharged from the army fit and well in 1920 and last heard of living in London.
Mr Llama, there are a few more than 'three or four' that escaped unscathed. With regard to names on the memorials, it's always a bit difficult. As late as 1963 there was a case of death from war wounds in the First World War, but I doubt if the person concerned was included on it. I'm intrigued by this one who was on the memorial who was discharged fit and well though. Could it possibly have been somebody else with the same name?
I imagine that is why they were concerned about Harold Wilson in the early years of Vietnam not supporting with full commitment to the USA.
The talk of coups was always in the air.
A really popular left wing leader would test their democratic role.
They seem to be restless with the current Leader of the opposition, who has no chance.
Maybe they think the next few years of cuts , could cause problems and they should finish him off now.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thankful_Villages
Marquee Mark, there were 52/53 villages - however, not all of them would have been independent parishes, of course. That being said, it would surely have been more than six.
Novelist Nevil Shute, who was at that time a private in a foot regiment, later wrote about his experiences with a specialist funeral party in Kent formed to carry out the huge number of burials caused by the epidemic. He said that forming such parties was the only way the army could cope with the numbers of dead, which seems ironic after 723,000 British and 277,000 other Commonwealth soldiers had been killed in the previous four and a bit years.
Do any MPs wear their military dress uniform to Remembrance Day? Maybe it is shunned on as they are there represent the civilians of their constituency not the soldiers.
He did ok this morning.
One thing that the coverage does not really convey (perhaps because it is incomprehensible) is the scale of the carnage, particularly in WW1
After the Cenotaph parade ended, I wandered down to the War Memorial in the local village.
It has 8 names from WWII inscribed upon it.
It has 61 from WWI
Given the size of the village in 1914, that is a huge chunk of the adult male population.
There is also a stately home nearby dating back to Tudor times, which passed to the National Trust when all the male heirs to the title and land were killed in WWI
Unimaginable, and yet reality.
We lost 30+ family members in the first world war, including the only son of the branch that looked after the family home (it ended up with the National Trust as well)
I am also intrigued by the survivor whose name is on the memorial. From what I have been able to establish he was one of five brothers who went off to the war. According to the 1911 census they lived, with their parents and two sisters, in a small cottage which still stands just up the road from me. Three of the brothers are commemorated on the village war memorial. Two were definitely were killed and the Commonwealth War Graves Commission have details of their graves.
The third, whose initials are very different from his siblings, is one of the few whose army record survived the bombing in WW2. That record shows his discharge to an address in London. The CWGC has no record of him or the other two survivors.
One would have thought that the family might have had something to say when the memorial was being planned and the names gathered, but apparently not. However, one must remember that in the aftermath of WW1 Hurstpierpoint was still a very rural area and a family who lived, all nine of them, in a two-up two-down cottage may not have been either very well educated or capable of having their voice heard (I strongly suspect we are in twelve toes territory). I have tried to track down the family, who seem long since to have left the area. but so far without success.
Or, of course - and this is the melodramatic explanation! - he may have had somebody tell his family he was dead while he stayed in London.
If you ever do unravel the mystery, I'd be interested to hear the story.
(Might be wrong - might have misheard the radio)
I always thought of the 52nd as an airborne formation that was never used in the role but I supposed they must have done something before that. Didn't they fight with the Canadians in the Scheldt estuary? Actually, from a distant memory stirring, that might be better expressed as fight against the Canadians in the Scheldt estuary.
I suppose the SNP are traitors also in his opinion for wanting Independence,and against replacing Trident.
https://twitter.com/jonahfisherbbc
It's not me that hates labour, its the Corbynites. I can respect people like poor Mrs Duffy, i was brought up surrounded by them. If you read what I said it was about the party within a party that is intent on taking over labour. When loony corbynites talk about the hard right and how they are going to eliminate them they are talking about Liz Kendall and the likes of Cooper.
Mr. Jessop, Mr. Llama, I do apologise, I somehow managed to miss both your replies to me on the previous thread.
Another Kickstarter perhaps worth considering is Kingdom Come: Deliverance. Think of Elder Scrolls, but set in the real world, in a condensed but generally realistic map of Bohemia several hundred years ago. The layered armour system appears the best since Dragon's Dogma, and although the release has been pushed back (2016 for consoles, I think) it looks intriguing.
Mr. Llama, I share you dislike of canine demise in videogames (I never had a Dawnguard husky as a companion for that reason), but Dogmeat [and other companions] cannot die in combat. They can, I think, get temporarily wounded and put out of the fight for a little while, but they can't actually get killed in combat.