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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump ousted from first place slot in the RCP Republican nominee polling average
Carson now ahead of Trump in the RCP GOP nominee polling average
https://t.co/x61cQvnKNs pic.twitter.com/PNTWpwRkg9
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From an Arsenal fan forum.
Edit: Trump being usurped was supposed to happen. But not by Carson, right?
He's got a good back story and he seems a nice chap - perhaps as with Corbyn the combination of views agreeable to the selectorate plus pleasantness makes for a winning formula?
W1 D1 L1
Not really all that bad
Edit: From a quick Google, it seems I'm wrong.
I just worked out that we should be about 4/1 to qualify and betfair is 4.6-5.1 so at least that's made me happy!
The most annoying thing about tonight was I made Lewandowski a massive bet FGS and didn't hsve enough on
Interesting that Trump's support looks pretty steady, as you say, at around 25%. His polling is somewhat reminiscent of Romney's last time, which hovered at around that kind of score while one bubble candidate after another challenged and was seen off. A quarter of the vote in a field this size is good going and there's scope to go higher as other candidates drop out.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/us-mideast-crisis-russia-syria-idUSKCN0ST2G020151104#7AKkJgZExGDZ223K.97
A worrying sign for Trump... I have to say Carson is a hold for me.
He's got his time in the sun; 11s or 12s seem fine with that.
Mr Watson intervened on behalf of a friend, the wife of a Labour politician, demanding that “no further child protection cases” be given to a Crown Prosecution Service lawyer pending a review into his previous work
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tom-watson/11976154/Revealed-letters-Tom-Watson-exchanged-with-DPPs-Alison-Saunders-and-Sir-Keir-Starmer.html
But we each get to make our calls!
Anyway, that's me signing off for now. Night all!
The US political process is being taken for a mug.
I suggest that Ted Cruz is well-placed for the firebrand vote that Donald Trump is getting. For that reason I'm not betting against him ( I am betting against Donald Trump).
I'm less clear who gets the devout and sincere vote that Ben Carson is gathering. None of the other candidates seem to have a handle on what's motivating his supporters.
http://youtu.be/tyakIYXvWos
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/george-galloway-i-ve-always-fancied-being-mayor-and-next-year-i-finally-could-be-a3106411.html
It's hard to make sense of any of this, but the obvious bet is to lay Rubio, and maybe also to lay Trump.
Trump – 26% (24)
Carson – 23% (23)
Cruz – 11% 10)
Rubio – 11% (9)
Bush – 4% (8)
Kasich – 4% (1)
Fiorina – 3% (5)
Christie – 2% (1)
Huckabee – 4% (5)
Paul – 4% (3)
Jindal – 0% (1)
Santorum – 0% (0)
Graham – 0% (0)
Pataki – 0% (1)
Gilmore – 0% (0)
Undecided – 5% (7
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/11/04/fox-poll-gop-nomination-race-coming-into-focus/
Ah yes: a man who by his own admission earns half a million quid a year, has a housekeeper, has bought the lease of a shop in Notting Hill and has been living off the public teat for decades with a pension the rest of us can only dream about claims to know what it is to worry about a job, a house, what the Tube or rent costs. The man is a despicable shit who should never be seen or heard of again.
Heaven knows who the pseudo quasi political organisation known as The Republican Party will pick, good luck to them, but it might be nice to think they will select a half sane politician, semi capable of forming a government.
Sadly their nomination process is more reminiscent of Strictly Come Dancing with far too many contestants emulating John Sergeant.
The firm revealed the figure as it said its profit in the past quarter jumped 11 percent to $891 million as advertising revenues soared.
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And twitter management look on sobbing into their soya lattes.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-row-as-john-mcdonnell-attends-activist-rallies-in-moderates-seats-a3106626.html
It's the politics of hate not hope. And London deserves better. Britain deserves better.
Dopy Corbyn has no class at all.
A man who thinks that it is ok to share a platform with Cage is a man who lacks judgment and some basic moral sense.
He may be marginally better than McDonnell on the basis that in the land of the blind the on-eyed man is king but, frankly, all that shows is the appallingly low standards which pertain in today's Labour Party.
Since Obama became POTUS the Democrats have lost a net 14 US Senate seats, 69 US House seats, 12 governorships and 910 state legislature seats.
My guess: low, unless "online footsoldiering" counts. Tweet for your life!
Look at where the Republican Party lives: Only 11 of 54 GOP senators and 26 of 247 GOP representatives hail from Obama-won locales, but there are 1,247 delegates at stake in Obama-won states, compared with just 1,166 in Romney states.
[...]
For example, three delegates are up for grabs in New York’s heavily Latino, Bronx-based 15th District, which cast just 5,315 votes for Romney in 2012. But there are also three delegates at stake in Alabama’s 6th District, which covers Birmingham’s whitest suburbs and gave Romney 233,803 votes. In other words, a GOP primary vote cast in the bluest part of the Bronx could be worth 43 times more than a vote cast in the reddest part of Alabama.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/
It seems that Republicans can win every single election except the presidency.
Obama's approval rating today at 47% is above George W Bush's 32% at this stage of his presidency but below Bill Clinton's 59%, what is the surname of the likely Democratic candidate again?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx
Active 770,000, reserves 2 million. So 4 or 8k is a drop in the bucket in relation to the whole. But it is the body bag statistic that matters, not the number on duty.
Trump and Carson still have 50% of the votes, double or more the combined second tier of Rubio and Cruz, with Bush crashing at the also-ran candidate levels I can't see how Rubio can move upwards unless the other establishment candidates drop out and give their 2-3% to Rubio, but that has to happen before the primaries start or it will be too late.
For that look at Christie, he won't be on the next debate because he has fallen bellow the polling threshold, he only has 2% though that he can give to Rubio and his gap with Trump and Carson is about 13%. Christie though might be too selfish to drop out before Iowa or N.Hampshire.
As for the others, Kasich has a lean campaign machine and has stacked everything on N.Hampshire, since he polls there around 10% he won't drop out before it, and Bush will still be there as long as he has the money.
My advice is (and it's good advice so far with the GOP race having predicted the rise of Trump and Carson many many months before, and the crash of Bush, Christie, Kasich and Fiorina since the beginning of this race):
1. Forget about what the mainstream media says and think like a UKIP voter (which is the closest equivalent to a Republican voter), who would you choose as your candidate?
2. Think like a stereotypical countryside american that you see on some weird shows (couch potatoes with guns and bibles), who would you choose as your candidate?
3. Look at the early state polls first, the national picture can be misleading since most campaigns throw everything at Iowa and N.H. not nationally, and the early primary results set the theme and the momentum.
4. Having a good resume counts for nothing in the public spotlight, having good acting skills is the key.
In my opinion this is a race between Trump and Carson, or you could say between blue collar workers and evangelicals.
Goodnight.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ben-carson-pyramids
Now here is Carson saying that he doesn't believe aliens build the pyramids because Joseph did to store grain.
Normally this statement would disqualify Carson from european politics at least, but in america and in particular the republican party I wouldn't be surprised if the majority thought that dinosaurs existed at the time of Noah or that the world was created 5000 years ago.
So Carson's position is within conservative american norms.
I mentioned plenty a thread back that putting 30 fighting aircraft there was a bit of a stretch. They could put more ground forces in ok but I cant see them double their airforce firepower and maintain a high tempo operation for very long.
In addition there appear to be 'volunteers' of some kind on the front lines. I'm not sure they are PMCs (or mercenaries to you and me) involved in putting those guys as they did for a bit in Eastern Ukraine before their effectiveness wasn't good enough and the Russian militarily got much more directly involved.
In comparison, the Americans could stick 100 000 in Afghanistan, the British 8-9000 for sustained high tempo operations over a period of years very far from home.
One note before bedtime on the Russian airliner FPT. Someone asked what the UK government knew about the airliner crash that they were not saying. I mentioned that the UK government had signals intelligence 'chatter' suggesting a possible link to a 3rd party being involved in the aircraft going down.
Lo and behold, unnamed US officials now suggest that comms intercepts give rise to that suspicion.
In reality the intercepts in question are no smoking gun, but do relate.
That there is a stronger religious thread in the US than in Western Europe doesn't count for much politically in reality. Look at the last sets of Presidential elections and end candidates competing for the top job. Not one of them could be described as a religious nutbag, not one. If the masses, the majority as you call them, were all fundamentalists then you'd have a religious nutbag in the White House.
You don't and you haven't because the masses are not.
Russia sends missile systems to Syria "to prevent hijacking of its jets"
Huh? Something does not quite add up in that report from Sky. How does a missile system stop a hijack.... . (Except permanently of course). Mmmmmm.....
Edit- British Government advises against all but essential travel to Egypt.
"With Hungary, Croatia, and Slovenia closing all or parts of their borders, bottlenecks have left many stranded at ill-prepared crossing points, exposed to the elements and short of vital supplies."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34571236
Of course, they're not stranded at all. They are plenty capable of returning back to where they came from.
They increasingly seem to be trying to set up shots to that long shots are out of focus with the correspondent bleeding all over us in the foreground.
What were those reassurances we heard yesterday?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34729139
We're going to get hammered by the Saffers. Dale Steyn versus this team is going to be like Caesar taking on Hannibal.
A proper ass whooping for England/Hannibal
New Thread New Thread
This is an interesting debate. I'd certainly not thought much about blue state GOP primary votes before reading these articles.
Looking at the FrontLoading blog map, it appears that 26% of delegates are allocated proportionally; 16% winner takes all; and the rest some kind of hybrid (or a handful at the convention).
The key might be in the details of the hybrid.
http://frontloading.blogspot.co.uk/p/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-by.html