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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris the favourite as betting opens on who’ll lead the EU LEAVE campaign
As the referendum gets closer a key decision which could have huge impact on British politics in all sorts of ways is is who will lead the OUT campaign.
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Forget his crapness in Thanet South, in 2010 he finished third in a two horse race in 2010.
I like May, but I wonder if Lord Lawson might be the one to back.
This referendum is going to be all about economic credibility, and who better than the successful Tory Chancellor of the 80s
On Corbyn, I'm aware there was a bit of story regarding the lack of women in his shadow cabinet, but are his women troubles extending to not polling well with women or something? Labour are really going backwards, if that is the case. They've had an advantage with under 45 women for sometime now, and they would be silly to lose yet another demographic.
I agree that May and Osborne wouldn't really trust one another. I think Osborne, for a start would much prefer one of his acolytes to take the Conservative party leadership if he couldn't - so the likes of Javid, Hancock and even Perry would be pushed by him as opposed to May. I also think that May simply wouldn't be happy with merely being the face of the Osborne project in the way David Cameron, to all intents and purposes appears to be. I also think for any potential Tory party leader having a Conservative party dominated by Osborne acolytes does put them in a somewhat vulnerable position, especially if they don't have a comparable 'base' of supporters.
FTP
@felix Well, those who doubted Osborne probably feel a bit embarrassed. Still, all political careers end in failure so it should be interesting to see what the gods come up with
The Boris odds are derisory!
Of course the vain, glory hunting 'unpopular with people that don't like him' fool said yesterday he'd be delighted if Theresa May was the leader of the campaign
Boris' speech sounded wetter than a water balloon popped in a Lib Dem hall.
Osborne or his apprentice Javid are the best choices for the Tories between the extremes of May and Boris.
Wonder if Owen Patterson is also a runner perhaps at 66s or so ?
Redwood at 100s ?
Cash at 500 maybe
Spurs play later against a team managerless and bottom of the PL
Dare I hope....
I find the idea of Theresa May as PM almost as ridiculous as Jeremy Corbyn getting the job. She seems to have no firm principles, guiding beliefs or charisma, she just "is"; a political Zelig. That she is among the favourites for the job gives the lie to the claim that the Tories have an abundance of talent at their disposal.
Some thoughts on the market:
- It won't be a UKIP figure, because the undecideds the campaign needs to win over are Conservative and Labour voters
- It could be a non-frightening Labour figure like Kate Hoey, although she's probably not high-profile enough.
- A Conservative is more likely, especially one who can be seen to be above the fray of day-to-day politics.
On a separate note, someone was on the other day telling us that his firm's order book had collapsed and UK manufacturing is in big trouble. Well, we have this in today's Telegraph:
"The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.5 in October, from an upwardly revised reading of 51.8 in September. This is above the 50 level that divides growth from contraction and much higher than economists' expectations for a slight dip to 51.3."
So it would seem that some firms are doing very well and others less so.
The percentage of UKIP in Scotland is rather lower than the percentage of gays (on some estimates), mind.
[Edit: dozy error corrected!]
'I find the idea of Theresa May as PM almost as ridiculous as Jeremy Corbyn getting the job. She seems to have no firm principles, guiding beliefs or charisma, she just "is"; a political Zelig. That she is among the favourites for the job gives the lie to the claim that the Tories have an abundance of talent at their disposal.'
Translation
The last thing the Labour party (old or new) wants is another woman as Tory leader /Prime Minister,not to mention one that was Home Secretary for over 5 years, puts all those good old Labour boys that barely lasted a year in the job to shame.
'
If it's IN then Brussels won't care; close or not they will treat us as if we want even more Europe.
Their attitude is fairly clear in all their decisions.
Cameron at 200/1 is a good value book-balancer - there must be a shorter chance than that, that the EU tell him to go screw himself, accept a million more migrants, pay a billion more into the EU budget and raise a blue flag with gold stars above Buckingham Palace!!
There is no status quo or British negotiation on offer. It is leave or accept whatever the EU wants of us.
"Who will lead the official LEAVE campaign? Settled on lead debator in the first official debate."
Well that's a forlorn hope if ever there was one.
Think Cameron/Clegg/Brown offering everything that Scotland craves apart from actual independence, only when it looked for a 30th of a second that Scotland was going to break the Union.
F1: my post-race rambling is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/mexico-post-race-analysis.html
On-topic: there isn't a stand-out from that list. Boris is laughable given his previous claim we should vote No then stay in, May will not persuade swing voters, I think Dyson might have credibility but not sure he'd get it.
Whoever is running the Remain campaign needs to get the EU payroll to STFU until the referendum is over. It will only take a couple of stooges presented as impartial to drag the BBC into the mess too. They need Mandleson and quickly.
Err but he's on the EU payroll as well...
But why - if the result is close - would the reaction in Britain not be similar to that in Scotland, post-referendum? That too was meant to be once-in-a-generation decision, putting the matter to bed etc but it hasn't. I tend to the view that if the result is reasonably close, whatever the wishes of the EU and the political class here, the Pandora's box will have been opened and the UK's relationship with and role within the EU will continue to be an issue which will need addressing, even if the UK votes to remain.
Any promises will not be legally binding. The EU is as trustworthy as Tony Blair.
We're in with a good chance of this match now. He says, wondering out loud if he can re-arrange his diary so as to be free on Thursday afternoon...
Now I think that is a slightly different question.
Do the broadcasters ask the organisation to provide a spokes person or request the leader?
There are occasions where I could see, for example in a thoeretical world, Lord Lawson as leader, but not as the most effective in a debate, so they may want to put Boris or Kate Hoey up for the debate. Does this also mean the broadcasters are appointing the organistion that is the 'official' Leaver mouthpiece?
I'd rule out Nigel Farage unless it is intended that the Leave campaign is intended to boost UKIP's electoral chances rather than the other way around.
Leave need to persuade the public of two things: first, that they have a fairly clear idea what comes next if the public votes Leave or at the very least will be able to work out something sensible should the occasion arise; secondly, that they are not barking mad. So they need someone manifestly sensible. If I'm wrong about the ambitious Conservatives, Theresa May would fit the role better than Boris Johnson for this reason.
I'd prefer an experienced hasbeen politician to a businessman. Lord Lawson wouldn't be bad and nor would Michael Portillo. While both have an abundance of history to deal with, both have a perfectly sane persona. It would, however, be better to have an old-school Labour politician if at all possible - there isn't an obvious route to Leave without Labour voters coming on board in significant numbers. Kate Hoey isn't quite prominent enough. If Frank Field could be inveigled to do it, he would be better.
I'm not betting on this one. It seems far from clear that the choice is going to be made on a rational basis rather than to appease the clashing egos of the multifarious Leave campaigners.
At the moment it looks and sounds like the Remain campaign are the Establishment stitch-up, every word they say is driving more people toward Leave. I was willing to wait and see what the PM could come up with by way of negotiation, but the last few weeks have made me a firm Leave purely on the basis of the Remain campaign and the EU attitudes on Greece and migrants.
Better either to leave or to have an intelligent discussion about some sort of different membership within the EU for Britain rather than pretending that some sort of tinkering about this or that policy or changed wording will solve the fundamental issue, which is that our and our Continental neighbours' view of what the EU should be are too different to be reconciled within the existing structure.
Mandelson is the top political strategist of this era, he's the only one who can make Osborne look crap in comparison.
I think he quite dislikes Cameron, perhaps jealous that he got the credit for , or more accurately the chance of, detoxifying the Tories, so maybe that would entice him
Then I encounter the arrogance, the remoteness, the bureaucratic Eurocracy and their take-it-or-leave-it attitude and I'm equally repelled by that.
I'll be doing the opposite of AndyJS. Rather than weighing the evidence, I'll be following my heart. It will probably be on the day itself that I'll make my decision. Right now, both campaigns are being run spectacularly badly.
http://order-order.com/2015/11/02/british-polling-councils-accidental-email-to-odious-cummings/
As a committed OUTER I'm becoming more confident all the time, I foresee a very low turnout with most enthusiasm coming from those desperate to leave and give the establishment a kicking.
Unfortunately, the BPC’s Nick Moon accidentally pressed ‘reply all’ when he meant to send an internal email, meaning Cummings also received the less than flattering reply:
From: Moon, Nick (GfK)
Date: Mon, Nov 2, 2015 at 2:50 PM
Subject: RE: Complaint to the British Polling Council
To: Dominic Cummings, John Curtice
Cc: Simon Atkinson
Bugger – at first glance the odious Cummings might be onto something.
Survey looks pretty dodgy but luckily we don’t need to rule on that. But my initial thought is that YouGov did not give as much info as they should have
nick
http://order-order.com/2015/11/02/british-polling-councils-accidental-email-to-odious-cummings/
Edit: curses, TSE. I should have just pasted the link
'Britain is less than 45 minutes away from an attack by the EU...'
1. Norway pays the EU just as much as the UK per head?
2. Norway accepts three quarters of EU rules?
3. Norway has no influence and is a fax democracy?
'Nothing to see here' chirped the amused undecideds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elrWVRcnpBY
Having trawled through sludge and finally had to instant chat Ladbrokes to find it, I have had my £2.50 @ 50s on Dan Hannan.
He is sincere, sharp, confident, knowledgable, engaging.
Boris the Clown apart he is the one you would most want to go to the pub with.
Boris will trash his reputation as spokesman for cosmopolitan, metropolitan London (and much else) if he shows any little Englander tendencies. He can't afford too many guises if he really does want to be next leader/PM (which he won't be).
Lord Lawson is the threat.
The likely result of a leave would be negotiations about how to to leave with some EU body, leading who knows where. No one can tell and no one can know who or what political party would be involved,or whether any resulting agreement could get through parliament. The leading possibility however would be the EEA and thus various politicians and govts over the years effectively following the EU line as being the beat way to sustain our industrial and financial base. Norway's referendums voted not to join but Norwegian governments do their best to be defacto in the EU. I do not see the UK being much different, especially with a labour govt.
https://twitter.com/AmbroseEP/status/661186116964515842
Nothing to see here... Clearly the research of an independent think tank...
Of course, the media are all over her, which just inflates her ego even more. She does nothing to enhance the role of women in politics, in my opinion.
Why are the Leave campaign so rattled that their only message is that everyone on the other side, and even independent observers such as the US, are lying or dishonest or EU stooges? I just don't get it; although I expect the Remain side to win easily, the current polling is close enough that the Leave side certainly don't need to be desperate.
Given that the Eurosceptic headbangers have spent years telling us that Britain has no influence in the EU, it's a bit rich for them to complain when the same simplification is used against them in a different context.
A Norwegian Prime Minister described Norway as a fax democracy. It is entirely reasonable for the Remain camp to pick up on this phrase. Whether you agree with it is a matter for debate.
But again, I don't regard Norway's circumstances as very relevant to Britain's.
Will the BBC report the controversy surrounding this distorted poll as widely as it published the original allegation? I somehow doubt it.