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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast on Polling Matters –

24

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,562

    Mr. F, what was government approval in Germany before Merkel went mad?

    -30-33% in the Summer.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/df533qk76i/YG-Trackers-Eurotrack.pdf
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    JEO said:

    Do you have a way you can tot up the totals so that they are approximately equal? Because every source I've looked at today tells a consistent story: we pay a lot more per capita than Norway. This is true even from pro-EU sources.

    Despite lacking voting rights and full participation in the EU institutions, Norway must still make a sizeable contribution to the EU budget. Looking at its recent contributions, Norway pays €656m to the EU but gets back around €100m in science and research grants, which makes a per capita net contribution of €107.4. In contrast, Britain’s net contribution of around €9bn works out as €139 per capita.

    http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/what-would-a-norway-style-relationship-with-the-eu-entail/

    Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that that figure is correct and the CBI one isn't.
    The numbers are wrong. Or at least rather misleading. The Norway contribution to the EU budget in 2013 was €290 million - about €51 a head. The rest of that money to make up the €656 million was from the EEA and Norway Grant - a voluntary scheme to try and reduce social inequality across the EU.
    So they pay 656 million then?
    For access to the single market they pay €290 million. That is after all what everyone seems to consider the important factor.
    But overall they still pay €656m. Clearly they don't pay €366m out the goodness of their hearts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    edited October 2015
    Mr. F, hmm. A significant but not Earth-shattering decline then. Yet, anyway.

    Mr. Surbiton, perhaps they do. Our overseas aid budget is pretty damned large.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. F, and thanks for that info.
  • Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, what was government approval in Germany before Merkel went mad?

    -30-33% in the Summer.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/df533qk76i/YG-Trackers-Eurotrack.pdf
    That's some lovely polling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686
    Mr Dancer: tonight is my first night in this week. I shall be playing Witcher 3 and will report back
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited October 2015

    Mr. Cooke, hmm. Thanks for that detailed (as possible, without spoilers) response.

    I may skip a year, so if season 6 gets well-received, and then buy 5 a year later than usual (for a lower cost, hopefully) or abandon the DVD-collecting altogether.

    Season 5 was not quite to the same standard as the previous four seasons but it was still extremely good. Other than the one badly handled plotline mentioned, most of the criticisms are from book purists being grumpy about changes from the books, when they worked perfectly well on their own terms. Many of the storylines were fantastic, and one episode was truly outstanding, including Episode 9, which really upset book readers, even though the event may still happen in the books.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,039

    Mr. Cooke, don't South Korea and other nations trading with the EU go without that free movement?

    Mr. 1000, did you enjoy The Witcher 3?

    Ah, they have a Free Trade agreement, without being actively part of the Single market, as I understand it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2015

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Should be in bold. Those who favour the EEA option, a perfectly valid choice, by implication , is also accepting the free movement of people.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2015
    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    This is getting like the Corbynistas expanding the list of 'Red Tories'. The dishonest Cameroons rubbishing the EEA option include:

    Douglas Carswell: "Norway's deal with the EU is terrible. Almost as bad as ours in fact"

    John Redwood: "Eurosceptics don’t want the Norwegian model"

    Dominic Cummings: Dominic Cummings, director of the Vote Leave campaign, said his group did not support the "Norway option" for the UK if the public backed severing ties with Brussels in the in/out referendum promised by Mr Cameron.

    Ruth Lea: "Norway is not the way."
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,039
    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    Now that's an interesting point.

    On the whole, it really does look like the EEA status would be more than palatable to most of the UK.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm voting Leave, but that is very funny in this context.

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    This is getting like the Corbynistas expanding the list of 'Red Tories'. The dishonest Cameroons rubbishing the EEA option include:

    Douglas Carswell: "Norway's deal with the EU is terrible. Almost as bad as ours in fact"

    John Redwood: "Eurosceptics don’t want the Norwegian model"

    Dominic Cummings: Dominic Cummings, director of the Vote Leave campaign, said his group did not support the "Norway option" for the UK if the public backed severing ties with Brussels in the in/out referendum promised by Mr Cameron.

    Ruth Lea: "Norway is not the way."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    Now that's an interesting point.

    On the whole, it really does look like the EEA status would be more than palatable to most of the UK.
    Ironically, the most palatable option to most Brits is going to be the one that will be withheld by the politicians.

    Neither VoteFarageLeave nor BetterInTheBin want EEA to be on the ballot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Mr. 1000, one looks forward to hearing your thoughts.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    Now that's an interesting point.

    On the whole, it really does look like the EEA status would be more than palatable to most of the UK.
    Ironically, the most palatable option to most Brits is going to be the one that will be withheld by the politicians.

    Neither VoteFarageLeave nor BetterInTheBin want EEA to be on the ballot.
    Farage is involved in Leave.EU not VoteLeave.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.

    The freedom of movement directive applies to Norway in exactly the same way as to EU members. It's the same directive.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,143
    Really gutted to not be making what I had hoped to be my first appearance at a PB gathering tonight - the wheels of commerce meant that I had to skip up to Edinburgh for a couple of days unplanned earlier in the week, squeezing all deadlines.

    Will there be another before Xmas?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    Now that's an interesting point.

    On the whole, it really does look like the EEA status would be more than palatable to most of the UK.
    Ironically, the most palatable option to most Brits is going to be the one that will be withheld by the politicians.

    Neither VoteFarageLeave nor BetterInTheBin want EEA to be on the ballot.
    Farage is involved in Leave.EU not VoteLeave.
    I stand corrected. Mostly I was enjoying using the html strike tag.
  • surbiton said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Should be in bold. Those who favour the EEA option, a perfectly valid choice, by implication , is also accepting the free movement of people.

    And that is why so many of the Leave people are trying to downplay it. It is just as dishonest a position to take as the Cameron position. If they don't like the EEA option because of the implications (or lack thereof) for immigration then they should be honest about it. But because they can't bring themselves to do that they try and pretend it is a bad option with the myths about lack of control or huge payments.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    I'd like to hear more from VoteLeave, but overall it seems to be gradually grasping towards a positive direction: outside the EEA so we can control immigration, but equally a positive, business-friendly, open vision away from the Nigel Farages of the world. I look forward to them putting more concrete together (and I will be annoyed if they do not.)
  • rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    It used to be 300 hours of Norwegian language and history/culture lessons but I believe it has now been doubled to 600 hours.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    It used to be 300 hours of Norwegian language and history/culture lessons but I believe it has now been doubled to 600 hours.
    Have you done the full 300?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    edited October 2015
    Mr. JEO, it's sustainable in that it can keep going, but it could have alarming consequences.

    The Netherlands already has an Islamist Party. Mildly surprised we don't already have one.

    Edited extra bit: and that's without considering implications for the NHS, education, welfare and so forth.
  • The Norway rules for EU/EEA migrants are here:

    http://www.udi.no/en/want-to-apply/the-registration-scheme-for-eueea-nationals/?nav-veiviser=12896

    They are essentially identical to ours. You register once and that's it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    It used to be 300 hours of Norwegian language and history/culture lessons but I believe it has now been doubled to 600 hours.
    Have you done the full 300?
    Yes (well almost, see below). I actually didn't have to as I was only a transient worker and didn't live in the country (unless you count occasional hotels or an oil rig). But since the courses were available and I love the country I chose to do them.

    To be honest I got to about 265 hours - doing about 40 hours a year - but then stopped doing Norwegian contracts because I objected to losing 60% of my dayrate in tax. So I never completed the course.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I shall be there later on for a while.

    Perhaps we could have a fines system for mentions of Norway?
  • antifrank said:

    I shall be there later on for a while.

    Perhaps we could have a fines system for mentions of Norway?

    :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    antifrank said:

    I shall be there later on for a while.

    Perhaps we could have a fines system for mentions of Norway?

    Devomax for Britain !
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't think I can make it this evening sadly. I have to go to hospital for some tests this afternoon. This is never good news I find. Fingers crossed.

    I have been to so many hospitals as a patient that I could practically do a Good Hospital Guide all by myself....

    Have fun all! Don't fight over the EU too much. She isn't worth it...............

    Hope everything goes ok.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Golly, that's a great barrier and rewards the committed/integrated

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    Good post Andy. There's no question that the EEA option is being aggressively and dishonestly rubbished by the Cameron side precisely because it is actually rather an attractive one.

    They are desperate to cover up the fact that via EEA membership you essentially get all most Britons want out of 'Europe' at a lower cost and also avoiding dreadful things like the CAP, CFP, and of course the EU's slow motion takeover of our judicial and legal system.

    Essentially, an honest appraisal of the EEA versus the EU position shows what a dreadful deal we have got over the years and what a relatively good one these small and supposedly powerless countries have got.

    As I said before, this is all about our senior politicians and FO wanting to appear like big cheeses, hob-nobbing with the other major European leaders and looking important. It has zip to do with Britain's interests. The EU is the 'big game in town' and they want to be seen to be in the game even it means losing money hand over fist.

    Thanks.
    The is, however, one very significant issue - free movement of labour remains a Single Market requirement. The statement that those who want to control migration from the EU would be disappointed is completely true.
    Yes: but it is also perfectly possible for EEA members to discriminate against non-nationals, and withhold benefits. So, in Norway - as Richard_Tyndall will attest - you are required to register with the Police, to have visible means of support, and to (IIRC) attend Norwegian lessons.
    It used to be 300 hours of Norwegian language and history/culture lessons but I believe it has now been doubled to 600 hours.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    JEO said:

    From a link in the comments in that Carswell article is an interesting snippet I didn't know:

    "Exports to the EU now make up just 36 per cent of the UK’s overseas trade, barely more than we sell to the Commonwealth.

    Analysis of Government statistics released in October shows the true size of the EU export market is far less than the 44 per cent official total.

    That figure includes goods which go via ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, which are counted as exports to the EU despite them being merely in transit and immediately shipped off to other non-EU countries."

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/545174/Myth-importance-EU-trade-blown-apart-not-vital-to-Britain-economy

    "That figure includes goods which go via ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, which are counted as exports to the EU despite them being merely in transit and immediately shipped off to other non-EU countries."

    If the Netherlands put a tariff on goods from the UK, then the fact they were only going via the Netherlands would still be relevant. On the other hands, fewer goods would go via that route - so for comparison purposes the truth is probably between the two.
    If they were being transshipped, wouldn't they go through a free port, and hence would be irrelevant to EU exports?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    edited October 2015
    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html
  • Best wishes Miss Cyclefree and to Mr Fenster.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686
    MTimT said:

    JEO said:

    From a link in the comments in that Carswell article is an interesting snippet I didn't know:

    "Exports to the EU now make up just 36 per cent of the UK’s overseas trade, barely more than we sell to the Commonwealth.

    Analysis of Government statistics released in October shows the true size of the EU export market is far less than the 44 per cent official total.

    That figure includes goods which go via ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, which are counted as exports to the EU despite them being merely in transit and immediately shipped off to other non-EU countries."

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/545174/Myth-importance-EU-trade-blown-apart-not-vital-to-Britain-economy

    "That figure includes goods which go via ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, which are counted as exports to the EU despite them being merely in transit and immediately shipped off to other non-EU countries."

    If the Netherlands put a tariff on goods from the UK, then the fact they were only going via the Netherlands would still be relevant. On the other hands, fewer goods would go via that route - so for comparison purposes the truth is probably between the two.
    If they were being transshipped, wouldn't they go through a free port, and hence would be irrelevant to EU exports?
    I'm not sure many goods are trans-shipped through Rotterdam; simply the cost of trucking it to Rotterdam would be pretty significant, and the UK has some of the most efficient container ports in the world.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    JEO said:

    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html

    And to think some on here want open borders for everyone.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Oh you reckon Cameron would stay on if he recommends Remain and we leave?

    I think the most popular leader of a British party has a point
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,686

    The Norway rules for EU/EEA migrants are here:

    http://www.udi.no/en/want-to-apply/the-registration-scheme-for-eueea-nationals/?nav-veiviser=12896

    They are essentially identical to ours. You register once and that's it.

    I'm not sure that's true. If you read through the detail, for example, they say that people that come over as self-employed can only spend six months in the country without having a job.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,143

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    NF really is the best sleeper agent the Tories have isn't he.....

    ;-)
  • This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
  • Mortimer said:

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    NF really is the best sleeper agent the Tories have isn't he.....

    ;-)
    No. Our top sleeper agent is Agent Corbyn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    edited October 2015

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
    I was genuinely amazed at conference how many Tory outers loathe Farage and think he is a hindrance to the cause.

    Nearly as much as you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    Does Dave have a timetable for his renegotiation btw ?

    Haven't seen much progress so far on the issue !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
    I was genuinely amazed at conference how many Tory outers loathe Farage and think he is a hindrance to the cause.

    Nearly as much as you.
    Is Richard a hindrance to the out cause?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    The Norway rules for EU/EEA migrants are here:

    http://www.udi.no/en/want-to-apply/the-registration-scheme-for-eueea-nationals/?nav-veiviser=12896

    They are essentially identical to ours. You register once and that's it.

    I'm not sure that's true. If you read through the detail, for example, they say that people that come over as self-employed can only spend six months in the country without having a job.
    That is just a statement of the EU Directive, which applies equally to EEA countries and EU countries. See a UK summary here:

    www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn05972.pdf

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
    It's clear Farage has been surrounded by yes men who hang on his every opinion for too long.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    JEO said:

    From a link in the comments in that Carswell article is an interesting snippet I didn't know:

    "Exports to the EU now make up just 36 per cent of the UK’s overseas trade, barely more than we sell to the Commonwealth.

    Analysis of Government statistics released in October shows the true size of the EU export market is far less than the 44 per cent official total.

    That figure includes goods which go via ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, which are counted as exports to the EU despite them being merely in transit and immediately shipped off to other non-EU countries."

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/545174/Myth-importance-EU-trade-blown-apart-not-vital-to-Britain-economy

    "That figure includes goods which go via ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, which are counted as exports to the EU despite them being merely in transit and immediately shipped off to other non-EU countries."

    If the Netherlands put a tariff on goods from the UK, then the fact they were only going via the Netherlands would still be relevant. On the other hands, fewer goods would go via that route - so for comparison purposes the truth is probably between the two.
    If they were being transshipped, wouldn't they go through a free port, and hence would be irrelevant to EU exports?
    I'm not sure many goods are trans-shipped through Rotterdam; simply the cost of trucking it to Rotterdam would be pretty significant, and the UK has some of the most efficient container ports in the world.
    The ONS estimates it accounts for about 10% of total exports to the EU.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Haters gonna hate... Farage is the only leader the the general public actually like
  • This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
    I was genuinely amazed at conference how many Tory outers loathe Farage and think he is a hindrance to the cause.

    Nearly as much as you.
    You mean they loath me more than Farage!!!!???

  • This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
    I was genuinely amazed at conference how many Tory outers loathe Farage and think he is a hindrance to the cause.

    Nearly as much as you.
    You mean they loath me more than Farage!!!!???

    No one could ever loathe you Richard.

    Leave needs less Farage and more the likes of you and Casino Royale.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
    I was genuinely amazed at conference how many Tory outers loathe Farage and think he is a hindrance to the cause.

    Nearly as much as you.
    You mean they loath me more than Farage!!!!???

    No one could ever loathe you Richard.

    Leave needs less Farage and more the likes of you and Casino Royale.
    Puke!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Dan's back
    Rebellion in the House of Lords, muttering from Tory MPS - all of it means nothing as long as Corbyn leads Labour
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/11963191/Nothing-George-Osborne-does-about-tax-credits-can-make-Jeremy-Corbyn-prime-minister.html
  • rcs1000 said:



    I'm not sure many goods are trans-shipped through Rotterdam; simply the cost of trucking it to Rotterdam would be pretty significant, and the UK has some of the most efficient container ports in the world.

    Why would they trans-ship via truck? The container ship that stops at Felixstowe (for example) would next stop at Rotterdam and may well off load the container for another ship to carry and leave the EU or it may stay on the same ship which then leaves for non-EU port. Either way because container went via Rotterdam means it was exported from the EU there according to some box ticker.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Haters gonna hate... Farage is the only leader the the general public actually like

    Voters have never liked him enough to make him an MP though. I'm not really sure what is behind that.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    Haters gonna hate... Farage is the only leader the the general public actually like

    They like him but not enough to make him their MP...

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,686

    Is it worth taking the 16/1 on Putin being Time's Person of the Year?

    http://bit.ly/1kVyYIV

    I'm on him for £10 at 16/1. £10 is the maximum I could get.

    I backed him last year at 25/1. He was shortlisted but didn't win. With his grandmaster moves regarding Syria, Iran and Ukraine, running rings round Western leaders, I think he has a good chance. Better than 16/1.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    taffys said:

    Haters gonna hate... Farage is the only leader the the general public actually like

    Voters have never liked him enough to make him an MP though. I'm not really sure what is behind that.

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    Haters gonna hate... Farage is the only leader the the general public actually like

    They like him but not enough to make him their MP...

    Only really had one decent chance, and fair enough, yes he failed.

    Still hard to justify the 'toxic' meme when he tops the leader ratings... Maybe some peeps are in a bubble
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,533
    Pulpstar said:

    Larry Sabato has done a very good summary of the GOP field:

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicans-2016-oct-28-debate/

    Particularly worth reading for anyone thinking of lumping heavily on Rubio.

    What price do you make Rubio vs Clinton.

    @MalcolmG Have to say I hadn't really heard of any of the stable 5 horses either.
    Pulpstar, there were some real donkeys in there
  • Can't make it to the Shooting Star tonight, unfortunately. Would have much preferred a Friday meet to be honest, as I travel back from the Midlands to east London on Fridays. IIRC, the meet roughly 12 months ago was on a Friday (last one ever at Dirty Dick's).

    Anyway, hope those going have a great evening!
  • Dan's back

    Rebellion in the House of Lords, muttering from Tory MPS - all of it means nothing as long as Corbyn leads Labour
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/11963191/Nothing-George-Osborne-does-about-tax-credits-can-make-Jeremy-Corbyn-prime-minister.html



    He is completely correct. Osborne is in trouble over tax credits because of the damage it might do to his leadership hopes, not because it provides an opportunity for Labour. The Tories are currently in a situation where there is almost nothing they can do which will lead them to lose power in 2020.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,746
    JEO said:

    This will get Tories behind Dave. Farage is trying to make the referendum about Dave

    A Leave vote will spell the merciful end of the UK’s EU membership – and the end of a Prime Minister obsessed with putting the EU’s interests ahead of our own.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11961604/Britain-will-be-flattened-if-it-stays-in-the-EU.html

    Bloody stupid. But no more than I have come to expect from him.
    It's clear Farage has been surrounded by yes men who hang on his every opinion for too long.
    Is there a parallel between Corbyn and Farage? Both appear to have strong views, both say what they think regardless, What you see is what you get, and that’s “sort of” Marmite; love it or hate it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    This is a piece from the Calais camps which was written by someone who I know and trust to be honest - he's idealistic but frank about problems and worrying aspects. Whatever your views on migrants, I think you'll find it an interesting read:

    https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/guest-post-from-peter-bone-merci-mission/#comment-5790
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,001
    Afternoon all :)

    Afraid I'm also a non-runner this evening but I hope everyone who attends has a most pleasant evening and if there are any tips for the Melbourne Cup flying round, well, it's the only interesting thing that happens on a first Tuesday in November.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,686
    edited October 2015
    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    rcs1000 said:



    I'm not sure many goods are trans-shipped through Rotterdam; simply the cost of trucking it to Rotterdam would be pretty significant, and the UK has some of the most efficient container ports in the world.

    Why would they trans-ship via truck? The container ship that stops at Felixstowe (for example) would next stop at Rotterdam and may well off load the container for another ship to carry and leave the EU or it may stay on the same ship which then leaves for non-EU port. Either way because container went via Rotterdam means it was exported from the EU there according to some box ticker.

    No, it does not work like that if it stays on the ship.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    edited October 2015
    The argument about whether the UK pays more or less per capita than Norway is indicative of the larger problem: pretty much everything to do with the EU is too damn complicated. There are so many ways of looking the figures that you can prove or disprove pretty much anything you like.

    The cynic in me says why Norway? Norway is per capita one of the richest counties in the world. It gets no grants from the EU (other than some research stuff ) but pays a significant "voluntary" contribution to poorer EU areas. The U.K. Per capita income is much lower than Norway and it is very likely that choosing them as a comparator has understated how much money the UK would save by leaving the EU.

    On the other hand those who claim that Norway really has any choice about accepting directives are kidding themselves. They have the same sort of choice that Rumsfeld once gave to Pakistan: comply or be bombed back to the Stone Age. In this case it is comply or lose access to the single market. Given the importance of the single market to Norway they have no choice at all, a point demonstrated by the fact that they have never rejected a single piece of EU nonsense.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited October 2015
    Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

    The BBC gave some figures for a few years ago which squinting at the graph looked to be close to €60 per head. So you might be right. Will people appologise to Cameron? Norway may have (or had) a nice little earner from north sea oil, but it has a tiny population.
    But again there are other ways of looking at it and our net contribution as a percent of income puts us bottom, the lowest contributor to the EU. Not sure how that compares with Norway, they are allegedly wealthy, high income. So on that meausre they might be below us.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JEO said:

    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html

    Great ! That is why our GDP is likely to surpass Germany's as their population is set to decline rapidly.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The other pb takes a look at Call Me Dave:

    http://popbitch.com/home/2015/10/29/smear-tactics/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597

    People are shocked that disloyalty has consequences?

    While the tax credits row is the focus of attention, the grinding wheels of Government will today get round to exacting their revenge for a previous defeat – namely on Conservative MPs who rebelled against the proposal to restrict the purdah period in the EU referendum.

    ConservativeHome can reveal that today three of the rebels – Cheryl Gillan, Sir Edward Leigh and Chris Chope – will be sacked from their posts on the Council of Europe. Their roles as members of the UK delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly are decided by the Prime Minister, so it appears to be a personal punishment for their disloyalty.

    http://bit.ly/1jTV3rc

    It was not disloyalty. If anyone is being disloyal it is Cameron to his own party and its principles.

    I am sure they expected this however. They will be well aware how petty minded and vindictive Cameron can be.
    That is in no way disputing they were disloyal. It is arguing that their personal loyalty to their party leader is trumped by a higher loyalty or integrity. That may indeed be reasonable, but that doesn't mean they were not disloyal to their leader.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,533
    surbiton said:

    JEO said:

    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html

    Great ! That is why our GDP is likely to surpass Germany's as their population is set to decline rapidly.
    WOW is that down to the increase in burgers flipped, more GDP and much more poverty just what we need.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Still hard to justify the 'toxic' meme when he tops the leader ratings... Maybe some peeps are in a bubble ''

    Indeed. The real strength of support for UKIP in terms of crosses on ballot papers is very difficult to gauge right now.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    kle4 said:

    People are shocked that disloyalty has consequences?

    While the tax credits row is the focus of attention, the grinding wheels of Government will today get round to exacting their revenge for a previous defeat – namely on Conservative MPs who rebelled against the proposal to restrict the purdah period in the EU referendum.

    ConservativeHome can reveal that today three of the rebels – Cheryl Gillan, Sir Edward Leigh and Chris Chope – will be sacked from their posts on the Council of Europe. Their roles as members of the UK delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly are decided by the Prime Minister, so it appears to be a personal punishment for their disloyalty.

    http://bit.ly/1jTV3rc

    It was not disloyalty. If anyone is being disloyal it is Cameron to his own party and its principles.

    I am sure they expected this however. They will be well aware how petty minded and vindictive Cameron can be.
    That is in no way disputing they were disloyal. It is arguing that their personal loyalty to their party leader is trumped by a higher loyalty or integrity. That may indeed be reasonable, but that doesn't mean they were not disloyal to their leader.
    It's a strange sort of loyalty that's being demanded if it goes to the point you are forced for elections to be tilted with taxpayer money on one side. That's the stuff of tinpot African republics. It was egregious that David Cameron ever tried such a thing in the first place, but downright appalling that he's punishing people who actually stood up for democracy. The man should be ashamed of himself and thanked the rebels for keeping him honest on this.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    surbiton said:

    JEO said:

    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html

    Great ! That is why our GDP is likely to surpass Germany's as their population is set to decline rapidly.
    Why don't we let in another 300 million and we could surpass the US?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    antifrank said:

    The other pb takes a look at Call Me Dave:

    http://popbitch.com/home/2015/10/29/smear-tactics/

    That's rather good but I can't help thinking I am going to always be dependent on others having even opened that book, let alone subject it to textual analysis.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    O/T - Argentina demonstrating almost British student union levels of intolerance to free expression:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11962681/Jeremy-Clarkson-faces-three-years-in-jail-as-Argentina-reopens-Falklands-row-probe.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755

    This is a piece from the Calais camps which was written by someone who I know and trust to be honest - he's idealistic but frank about problems and worrying aspects. Whatever your views on migrants, I think you'll find it an interesting read:

    https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/guest-post-from-peter-bone-merci-mission/#comment-5790

    I wonder what Mrs.Bone would make of it.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

    No, it is not gross. That's a net figure. In sterling we pay 11bn net and 19bn gross. If you divide those numbers by our population, you get about 174 pounds net and 300 gross.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

    The BBC gave some figures for a few years ago which squinting at the graph looked to be close to €60 per head. So you might be right. Will people appologise to Cameron? Norway may have (or had) a nice little earner from north sea oil, but it has a tiny population.
    But again there are other ways of looking at it and our net contribution as a percent of income puts us bottom, the lowest contributor to the EU. Not sure how that compares with Norway, they are allegedly wealthy, high income. So on that meausre they might be below us.
    People should apologise to Cameron based on your squinting of an unnamed graph from a few years ago?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    The other pb takes a look at Call Me Dave:

    http://popbitch.com/home/2015/10/29/smear-tactics/

    That's rather good but I can't help thinking I am going to always be dependent on others having even opened that book, let alone subject it to textual analysis.
    Reading the account of the party in the newspaper extracts was when I lost any confidence in the value of the book. It seethes with so much innuendo and the suggestion about Samantha Cameron is so transparent. But it obviously is unable to make good on what it would clearly dearly love to claim.
  • JEO said:

    Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

    No, it is not gross. That's a net figure. In sterling we pay 11bn net and 19bn gross. If you divide those numbers by our population, you get about 174 pounds net and 300 gross.
    19 bn gross would be enough DFID for more than SIX Indias! :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,172
    edited October 2015
    surbiton said:

    JEO said:

    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html

    Great ! That is why our GDP is likely to surpass Germany's as their population is set to decline rapidly.
    "Yeah, but who's gonna fly it, kid? You?" :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    surbiton said:

    JEO said:

    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html

    Great ! That is why our GDP is likely to surpass Germany's as their population is set to decline rapidly.
    GDP is meaningless. GDP per capita is the important measure !
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    The other pb takes a look at Call Me Dave:

    http://popbitch.com/home/2015/10/29/smear-tactics/

    That's rather good but I can't help thinking I am going to always be dependent on others having even opened that book, let alone subject it to textual analysis.
    The dirt i really want dished is why Cameron ratted on Ashcroft in the first place, if indeed he really did so.

    We know when asked Cameron said, "how long have you got?"

    What did Ashcroft do?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    This is a piece from the Calais camps which was written by someone who I know and trust to be honest - he's idealistic but frank about problems and worrying aspects. Whatever your views on migrants, I think you'll find it an interesting read:

    https://beestonia.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/guest-post-from-peter-bone-merci-mission/#comment-5790

    Mr Bone needs to think again.

    'and besides, they’re not here because they are poor, they’re here because their lives were in danger,

    Some of them probably, but many are economic migrants.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    JEO said:

    Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

    The BBC gave some figures for a few years ago which squinting at the graph looked to be close to €60 per head. So you might be right. Will people appologise to Cameron? Norway may have (or had) a nice little earner from north sea oil, but it has a tiny population.
    But again there are other ways of looking at it and our net contribution as a percent of income puts us bottom, the lowest contributor to the EU. Not sure how that compares with Norway, they are allegedly wealthy, high income. So on that meausre they might be below us.
    People should apologise to Cameron based on your squinting of an unnamed graph from a few years ago?
    It is still available if you want to search, i cannot work out how to link it from my phone. I've pointed to it in the past. Allowing for inflation and even Blairs give away it probably still works out less than Norway. Both as per capita and per income we do not come out too badly in relation to other nations.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    edited October 2015

    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    The other pb takes a look at Call Me Dave:

    http://popbitch.com/home/2015/10/29/smear-tactics/

    That's rather good but I can't help thinking I am going to always be dependent on others having even opened that book, let alone subject it to textual analysis.
    The dirt i really want dished is why Cameron ratted on Ashcroft in the first place, if indeed he really did so.

    We know when asked Cameron said, "how long have you got?"

    What did Ashcroft do?
    His late disclosure on his tax status and who was to blame over the Tories not winning a majority in 2010

    Ashcroft blames Dave for agreeing to the debates, Dave blames Ashcroft for faulty polling and strategy/tactics.

    For example Ashcroft said Hamsptead and Kilburn wasn't winnable and threw all resources at Westminster North.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Good evening, everyone.

    Dr. Prasannan, last ever? Has Dirty Dicks been demolished?

    Mr. Royale, it takes a special sort of intellectually vacant clown to see a man and his colleagues almost get stoned to death by a mob because of a number plate, and then decide jail time may be an appropriate response. For the crime of having stones flung at him.

    Glad the Aussies stuffed the Argies.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    ...Re the Peter Bone Calais item..why don't they apply for asylum in France...why the UK..
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,686
    JEO said:

    Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

    No, it is not gross. That's a net figure. In sterling we pay 11bn net and 19bn gross. If you divide those numbers by our population, you get about 174 pounds net and 300 gross.
    Look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union

    Click on subnote 28 to get the EU budget.
    Go to sheet year 2014.

    Line 84 gives the EU expenditure on the UK i.e. what we get back. It is €7.0b.
    Line 92 gives the UK National Contribution i.e. gross. That is €11.3b.

    That leaves €4.3b as our net contribution.
    At €1.37 to £, that is roughly £3.2b.
    UK population of 64m means our net contribtuion is £50/head.

    These are EU original sources. I don't know what sources you are using but I am about to leave for The Shooting Star so I will probably never find out (unless you are planning to be there).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597
    JEO said:

    kle4 said:

    People are shocked that disloyalty has consequences?

    While the tax credits row is the focus of attention, the grinding wheels of Government will today get round to exacting their revenge for a previous defeat – namely on Conservative MPs who rebelled against the proposal to restrict the purdah period in the EU referendum.

    ConservativeHome can reveal that today three of the rebels – Cheryl Gillan, Sir Edward Leigh and Chris Chope – will be sacked from their posts on the Council of Europe. Their roles as members of the UK delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly are decided by the Prime Minister, so it appears to be a personal punishment for their disloyalty.

    http://bit.ly/1jTV3rc

    It was not disloyalty. If anyone is being disloyal it is Cameron to his own party and its principles.

    I am sure they expected this however. They will be well aware how petty minded and vindictive Cameron can be.
    That is in no way disputing they were disloyal. It is arguing that their personal loyalty to their party leader is trumped by a higher loyalty or integrity. That may indeed be reasonable, but that doesn't mean they were not disloyal to their leader.
    It's a strange sort of loyalty that's being demanded if it goes to the point you are forced for elections to be tilted with taxpayer money on one side. That's the stuff of tinpot African republics. It was egregious that David Cameron ever tried such a thing in the first place, but downright appalling that he's punishing people who actually stood up for democracy. The man should be ashamed of himself and thanked the rebels for keeping him honest on this.
    I'm in favour of leaving, but if that's the worst thing Cameron has asked his party members to do, I suspect he's mid table at best in the 'most unreasonable party leader' stakes.
  • Don't know if any of this article stands up to scrutiny (probably not) but it seems to imply that the introduction of universal credit will result in a big increase in benefit claims. Because the different benefits are being rolled in to one the result will be that every benefit that a recipient is entitled to claim will be automatically paid, whereas now many go unclaimed because the recipient doesn't know they can claim them

    https://speye.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/tax-credit-cuts-will-increase-welfare-bill/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2015
    The GOP candidates in the wake of last night's CNBC debate are getting organized to ditch the rest of the debates and do their own ones:

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/after-cnbc-debacle-carson-camp-vows-revolt-over-debates/article/2575209

    The next debate is in 12 days of Fox Business, so I don't think they will ditch that, the one after though doesn't come until December 15th on CNN, a network which they hate, so they might ditch that one in favour of something else.
  • Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Barnesian said:

    JEO said:

    Richard_Nabavi,

    The CBI provide these numbers for Norway's and the UK's contributions for the EU:

    Norway: €100 per capita
    UK: €180 per capita

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    It seems very clear that Cameron's claim was simply untrue.

    That UK figure of €180 per capita is gross. The net figure is nearer €80 per capita. (£60)

    No, it is not gross. That's a net figure. In sterling we pay 11bn net and 19bn gross. If you divide those numbers by our population, you get about 174 pounds net and 300 gross.
    Look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union

    Click on subnote 28 to get the EU budget.
    Go to sheet year 2014.

    Line 84 gives the EU expenditure on the UK i.e. what we get back. It is €7.0b.
    Line 92 gives the UK National Contribution i.e. gross. That is €11.3b.

    That leaves €4.3b as our net contribution.
    At €1.37 to £, that is roughly £3.2b.
    UK population of 64m means our net contribtuion is £50/head.

    These are EU original sources. I don't know what sources you are using but I am about to leave for The Shooting Star so I will probably never find out (unless you are planning to be there).
    The net figures – which take into account the UK’s rebate – show the UK’s contribution to the EU was £2.7bn in 2008, rising to £3.8bn in 2009, £7.2bn in 2010, £7.5bn in 2011, £8.5bn in 2012 and £11.3bn in 2013.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/31/britain-eu-contribution-rise-quadruple-cameron
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755

    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    The other pb takes a look at Call Me Dave:

    http://popbitch.com/home/2015/10/29/smear-tactics/

    That's rather good but I can't help thinking I am going to always be dependent on others having even opened that book, let alone subject it to textual analysis.
    The dirt i really want dished is why Cameron ratted on Ashcroft in the first place, if indeed he really did so.

    We know when asked Cameron said, "how long have you got?"

    What did Ashcroft do?
    His late disclosure on his tax status and who was to blame over the Tories not winning a majority in 2010

    Ashcroft blames Dave for agreeing to the debates, Dave blames Ashcroft for faulty polling and strategy/tactics.

    For example Ashcroft said Hamsptead and Kilburn wasn't winnable and threw all resources at Westminster North.

    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    The other pb takes a look at Call Me Dave:

    http://popbitch.com/home/2015/10/29/smear-tactics/

    That's rather good but I can't help thinking I am going to always be dependent on others having even opened that book, let alone subject it to textual analysis.
    The dirt i really want dished is why Cameron ratted on Ashcroft in the first place, if indeed he really did so.

    We know when asked Cameron said, "how long have you got?"

    What did Ashcroft do?
    His late disclosure on his tax status and who was to blame over the Tories not winning a majority in 2010

    Ashcroft blames Dave for agreeing to the debates, Dave blames Ashcroft for faulty polling and strategy/tactics.

    For example Ashcroft said Hamsptead and Kilburn wasn't winnable and threw all resources at Westminster North.
    Interesting. Thanks.

    We all make mistakes. It feels a bit like there's almost something very personal going on here as well.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    CNN is reporting the overnights show that 15 million people saw last night's Republican debate. It was on an obscure channel most Americans have never watched and was competing against the World Series game 2. The first 2 debates got about 25 million.

    For the record KC leads the Mets 2-0.

    One of the moderators - Harwood - was caught in two outright lies during the debate. Firstly he denied having to correct his NY Times article on Rubio's tax plan when Rubio challenged him. After the debate he tweeted a 'correction'. Secondly he claimed the CNBC debate was always going to be 2 hours, when the fact that Trump and Carson initially refused to appear unless it was reduced from 3 to 2 hours was widely reported.

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited October 2015
    < Sarcasm > Thanks Dave < / Sarcasm>. It is becoming increasingly hard to see a united Tory party post EU referendum:

    "Cameron’s revenge on purdah rebels – he sacks them from the Council of Europe"

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/10/camerons-revenge-on-purdah-rebels-he-sacks-them-from-the-council-of-europe.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    JEO said:

    I'm not sure this is sustainable:

    The population of Britain is to increase by almost 10 million in the next 25 years, with net migration accounting for more than half that number.

    Projections released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK population is expected to reach 74.3 million by 2039, up from an estimated 64.6 million in imd-2014.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-population-to-rise-by-10-million-in-next-25-years-with-net-migration-accounting-for-50-a6713106.html

    Absolutely insane. But exactly where we are heading if we fail to get a grip on migration.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MP_SE said:

    < Sarcasm > Thanks Dave < / Sarcasm>. It is becoming increasingly hard to see a united Tory party post EU referendum:

    "Cameron’s revenge on purdah rebels – he sacks them from the Council of Europe"

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/10/camerons-revenge-on-purdah-rebels-he-sacks-them-from-the-council-of-europe.html

    As martyrdoms go, it falls some way short of being stoned or thrown to the lions.
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