If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
100/1 seems about right! Also Johnny only has a 1026 majority - I'm not sure what the new boundaries will do for Plymouth, but he may doing well just to remain an MP.
Yes the comparisons between GO and VW are perfectly valid- one is ridden with approvals avoiding corruption and union scandals, the other had his democratically earned mandate voted down by a bunch of LD luvvies who were justly turfed out en mass by the British public in May.
Filled with mistakes, but I'll just point out the easy one: it's 'en masse'.
A vote for Out is not a vote for Farage to be PM. Indeed, it'll serve to marginalise UKIP as their raison d'etre will be removed.
It must just be a strange coincidence that all the people who are most voluble Leavers are kippers or from the rightwing fringes of the Conservative party then.
Mr. Antifrank, surprised you're content to let the views of others, and your dislike of such, sway your opinion that way.
You can't divorce the arguments from the people making them. As things stand, if we leave the EU, we are electing to be led by inward-looking grouchy hysterical maniacs. If we stay in the EU, we are electing to be led by arrogant disingenuous faceless bureaucrats. The vote is as much about identity as the economy.
Neither of those identities are appealing to me and contact with each reinforces the appeal of the other.
Who are these leading inward looking little Englanders that you speak of? The likes of roger helmer will not be running the country any time soon.
David Cameron is well within his rights to point out that Norwegian politicians consider Norway's relations with the EU have downsides. If Leavers are going to be so brittle about every inconvenient argument, we will run out of Valium in the next two years.
I am sure Dave will mention that only 15% of Norwegians want to join the EU...
Others are welcome to make their own arguments. The wanton outbreaks of hysteria from the hardline BOOers every time the Prime Minister expresses his own views on the EU do them no credit at all.
Personally, I can't see a huge amount of relevance to the UK of Norway's position either way. Its circumstances are too different from our own.
Which hardline BOOers have had an outbreak of hysteria?
Frankly, the people that accuse others of "hysteria" or "banging on" or being "swivel-eyed" tend to be the ones that are most zealously ideological themselves. Typically, people resort to insults when they do not have good counter arguments.
Antifrank is one of the best tipsters and writers here - extremely intelligent, excellent tips and courteous.
However, he totally loses it on the following subjects: the EU, immigration and UKIP. But that's ok, I lose it on foxhunting.
None of us are perfect.
You've been a regular on here longer than I have, but I find there are four individuals on here that tend to insult people regularly, and antifrank is one of them. It doesn't set a good impression.
I actually don't agree with that, and antifrank is probably one of the posters I respect the most.
But it's because of that that I get so disappointed when he acts like this.
David Cameron is well within his rights to point out that Norwegian politicians consider Norway's relations with the EU have downsides. If Leavers are going to be so brittle about every inconvenient argument, we will run out of Valium in the next two years.
I am sure Dave will mention that only 15% of Norwegians want to join the EU...
Others are welcome to make their own arguments. The wanton outbreaks of hysteria from the hardline BOOers every time the Prime Minister expresses his own views on the EU do them no credit at all.
Personally, I can't see a huge amount of relevance to the UK of Norway's position either way. Its circumstances are too different from our own.
Which hardline BOOers have had an outbreak of hysteria?
Frankly, the people that accuse others of "hysteria" or "banging on" or being "swivel-eyed" tend to be the ones that are most zealously ideological themselves. Typically, people resort to insults when they do not have good counter arguments.
Antifrank is one of the best tipsters and writers here - extremely intelligent, excellent tips and courteous.
However, he totally loses it on the following subjects: the EU, immigration and UKIP. But that's ok, I lose it on foxhunting.
None of us are perfect.
On the subject of the EU I'm on the fence. When I come into contact with committed Remainders, I incline to Leave. When, as this morning, the Leavers are in the ascendancy, I gain a renewed appreciation of the EU.
With respect, I don't think there's any question that you will vote to Remain.
A vote for Out is not a vote for Farage to be PM. Indeed, it'll serve to marginalise UKIP as their raison d'etre will be removed.
It must just be a strange coincidence that all the people who are most voluble Leavers are kippers or from the rightwing fringes of the Conservative party then.
A vote for Out is not a vote for Farage to be PM. Indeed, it'll serve to marginalise UKIP as their raison d'etre will be removed.
It must just be a strange coincidence that all the people who are most voluble Leavers are kippers or from the rightwing fringes of the Conservative party then.
David Cameron is well within his rights to point out that Norwegian politicians consider Norway's relations with the EU have downsides. If Leavers are going to be so brittle about every inconvenient argument, we will run out of Valium in the next two years.
I am sure Dave will mention that only 15% of Norwegians want to join the EU...
Others are welcome to make their own arguments. The wanton outbreaks of hysteria from the hardline BOOers every time the Prime Minister expresses his own views on the EU do them no credit at all.
Personally, I can't see a huge amount of relevance to the UK of Norway's position either way. Its circumstances are too different from our own.
Which hardline BOOers have had an outbreak of hysteria?
Frankly, the people that accuse others of "hysteria" or "banging on" or being "swivel-eyed" tend to be the ones that are most zealously ideological themselves. Typically, people resort to insults when they do not have good counter arguments.
Antifrank is one of the best tipsters and writers here - extremely intelligent, excellent tips and courteous.
However, he totally loses it on the following subjects: the EU, immigration and UKIP. But that's ok, I lose it on foxhunting.
None of us are perfect.
You've been a regular on here longer than I have, but I find there are four individuals on here that tend to insult people regularly, and antifrank is one of them. It doesn't set a good impression.
I actually don't agree with that, and antifrank is probably one of the posters I respect the most.
But it's because of that that I get so disappointed when he acts like this.
Antifrank is a regular at the pb bashes, so if you both can make the event tomorrow, I shall be enthralled by your full and (anti) frank and candid exchange of views.
Mr. Antifrank, the referendum isn't also a vote in the 2020 General Election.
Besides, I'm almost certain to vote Out, but I'm neither a Kipper nor a Conservative.
Surely you'd rather base your view on the facts and best outcome for the UK, rather than looking at which set of supporters with whom you'd be most inclined to have dinner?
This decision will substantially affect the UK for decades to come. It's not about how we feel about putting a smile on Farage's or Juncker's face, but the long term interest of the country.
A vote for Out is not a vote for Farage to be PM. Indeed, it'll serve to marginalise UKIP as their raison d'etre will be removed.
It must just be a strange coincidence that all the people who are most voluble Leavers are kippers or from the rightwing fringes of the Conservative party then.
Michael Portillo
I'm not sure Portillo is a member of the Conservatives any more (I might be wrong, but didn't he leave a few years ago)? Also, was he so voluble for Leave when he was (say) shadow chancellor?
'I've already said downthread how I think Cameron can express his views and give leadership, without compromising his own renegotiation.'
With respect I actually think that is nonsense. If you are not really interested in substantial renegotiation and also put people in charge of it who are not interested, then the prospects of achieving significant changes are zero.
EU opponents need to be arguing their case independently from this whole process, which is a complete sham.
Mr. Eagles, thanks, glad you liked it. I was considering splitting it into three (one each for Roxanne, Olympias and Adea) but decided to leave it a bit longer, and I think it works.
There's nothing sexist about my writing. The lesbianism in my WIP is entirely justified artistically.
If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
100/1 seems about right! Also Johnny only has a 1026 majority - I'm not sure what the new boundaries will do for Plymouth, but he may doing well just to remain an MP.
Still looking like George to me in 2019.
I still think George might decline to run.
Mercer took a seat from Labour in May, he'll have five years of incumbency. Plus he's impressive.
I know, I've got a massive man crush on Mercer, but I like him a lot, and think he'll hold whatever seat he contests in 2020, very comfortable.
A vote for Out is not a vote for Farage to be PM. Indeed, it'll serve to marginalise UKIP as their raison d'etre will be removed.
It must just be a strange coincidence that all the people who are most voluble Leavers are kippers or from the rightwing fringes of the Conservative party then.
A vote for Out is not a vote for Farage to be PM. Indeed, it'll serve to marginalise UKIP as their raison d'etre will be removed.
It must just be a strange coincidence that all the people who are most voluble Leavers are kippers or from the rightwing fringes of the Conservative party then.
Michael Portillo
I'm not sure Portillo is a member of the Conservatives any more (I might be wrong, but didn't he leave a few years ago)? Also, was he so voluble for Leave when he was (say) shadow chancellor?
That's my point... He isn't a kipper or a right wing conservative and he is a prominent and voluble LEAVER.
Mr. Antifrank, the referendum isn't also a vote in the 2020 General Election.
Besides, I'm almost certain to vote Out, but I'm neither a Kipper nor a Conservative.
Surely you'd rather base your view on the facts and best outcome for the UK, rather than looking at which set of supporters with whom you'd be most inclined to have dinner?
This decision will substantially affect the UK for decades to come. It's not about how we feel about putting a smile on Farage's or Juncker's face, but the long term interest of the country.
What's best for the UK includes how we develop as a society. This is not just an economic question but a question of identity. For me, the question of identity is more important. Neither identity that I am being presented with as a way forward is remotely appealing.
Whichever side can manage to present a face that is not absolutely revolting has an excellent chance of winning the antifrank vote. Right now, both seem to be competing as hard as possible to lose it.
For those of us who enjoy the hospitality industries in the UK leaving the EU would be a catastrophe.I can't remember when I was last served by an English waiter or waitress (thank God).
Replace 'English' with 'black', 'Jewish' or 'muslim' and you get a good idea of Roger's true attitude. Racism is racism and bigotry is bigotry.
If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
100/1 seems about right! Also Johnny only has a 1026 majority - I'm not sure what the new boundaries will do for Plymouth, but he may doing well just to remain an MP.
Still looking like George to me in 2019.
Someone with only 4 years experience as an MP being installed as unelected PM is different from being LOTO isn't it?
I hate seeing total fools on this website and the news media refer to corporation tax as a fraction of sales revenues or pretend it's the only tax a business pays. That is not what the tax is! It is a tax on profits!
Tax on sales does exist already. It's called VAT.
We also pay business rates whether a corporation is profitable or loss making. And Employers NI a tax on hiring people. And so on.
Oh and dividends can only be paid from profits that have been taxed. Loss making business pay no corporation tax but pay no dividends either.
If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
100/1 seems about right! Also Johnny only has a 1026 majority - I'm not sure what the new boundaries will do for Plymouth, but he may doing well just to remain an MP.
Still looking like George to me in 2019.
I still think George might decline to run.
Mercer took a seat from Labour in May, he'll have five years of incumbency. Plus he's impressive.
I know, I've got a massive man crush on Mercer, but I like him a lot, and think he'll hold whatever seat he contests in 2020, very comfortable.
I don't think Osborne particularly wants it. Boris is too controversial to get it (I sure as heck wouldn't vote for him if I had a vote in the leadership election), and all the main runners have been around for too long.
Mercer's an interesting option, but I prefer Rory Stewart.
Mr. Thompson, my favourite bit of recent bad economic reporting was on ITV a few years ago. Inflation was around the 2-3% mark. Report started by saying it was the highest level for about 3 years. Then the newsreader said prices were rising 'like never before'.
Right now I must say I'm edging towards leave, the treatment of Greece and Portugal has tipped me further to that view.
Having said that at the General Election I just couldn't bring myself to vote Conservative as I found the campaign utterly vulgar and far too personal against Ed Miliband. I figured enough would though, and was very happy with the final result. I liked the Tory plan, just not Lynton's methods ^_~. My vote was most likely not going to count either (Though my constituency was closer than I expected !)
I'm going to have to do my best not to be dissuaded from voting for either side on the EU referendum as my vote will actually count in this one (All the votes will) based off a contrarian view of the campaigns...
For those of us who enjoy the hospitality industries in the UK leaving the EU would be a catastrophe.I can't remember when I was last served by an English waiter or waitress (thank God).
Replace 'English' with 'black', 'Jewish' or 'muslim' and you get a good idea of Roger's true attitude. Racism is racism and bigotry is bigotry.
Why would you want to conflate a very loose and diverse category of nationality with race or ethnicity?
Observation not bigotry. How many English waiters or waitresses do you come accross in an average week? In Scotland yes but that's not somewhere you'd choose for a gastronomic week-end.
We just have to accept that different countries produce different talents. The English excel on the creative side which is why (Watford) if you want to launch a new line of toilet paper anywhere in the world you are likely to fly in an English director!
If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
100/1 seems about right! Also Johnny only has a 1026 majority - I'm not sure what the new boundaries will do for Plymouth, but he may doing well just to remain an MP.
Still looking like George to me in 2019.
I still think George might decline to run.
Mercer took a seat from Labour in May, he'll have five years of incumbency. Plus he's impressive.
I know, I've got a massive man crush on Mercer, but I like him a lot, and think he'll hold whatever seat he contests in 2020, very comfortable.
I don't think Osborne particularly wants it. Boris is too controversial to get it (I sure as heck wouldn't vote for him if I had a vote in the leadership election), and all the main runners have been around for too long.
Mercer's an interesting option, but I prefer Rory Stewart.
i have huge time for Rory. Very interesting. Definitely should be in the frame. Will he have made enough friends amongst MPs though? Bit too cerebral for the duck and dog?
If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
100/1 seems about right! Also Johnny only has a 1026 majority - I'm not sure what the new boundaries will do for Plymouth, but he may doing well just to remain an MP.
Still looking like George to me in 2019.
I still think George might decline to run.
Mercer took a seat from Labour in May, he'll have five years of incumbency. Plus he's impressive.
I know, I've got a massive man crush on Mercer, but I like him a lot, and think he'll hold whatever seat he contests in 2020, very comfortable.
I don't think Osborne particularly wants it. Boris is too controversial to get it (I sure as heck wouldn't vote for him if I had a vote in the leadership election), and all the main runners have been around for too long.
Mercer's an interesting option, but I prefer Rory Stewart.
i have huge time for Rory. Very interesting. Definitely should be in the frame. Will he have made enough friends amongst MPs though? Bit too cerebral for the duck and dog?
This referendum seems to be confusing otherwise rational, intelligent people. Its as if when we leave the EU Farage is installed in no 10 immediately surrounded by people chanting UKIP.
Grow up for heavens sake, this referendum ensures that if we vote OUT the next elected govt will not be restricted by Brussels or indeed have the comfort blanket of the EU to fall back on, they'll have to govern properly for the benefit of GB, not people elsewhere.
The next govt will be conservative, I want them to govern us out of the EU.
Observation not bigotry. How many English waiters or waitresses do you come accross in an average week? In Scotland yes but that's not somewhere you'd choose for a gastronomic week-end.
snip
Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it.
I think people are looking at the Con contest the wrong way. In the Lab contest, the 4 candidates represented different areas of the party from Kendall on the right to Corbyn on the hard left. Similarly for the Con contest there will be candidates from the Left (Cameroons), Centre and Right.
Osborne and Boris will have most of the Cameroon vote sewn up so Morgan and Soubry if they stand will struggle to get any votes. We need to look at who will be the candidates from the right and centre. May has obviously realised this and with her immigration speech is looking to become the 2nd choice of the right. Of the names mentioned above, only Patel seems to me to have any chance as she is more on the right.
I think Owen Patterson is the obvious challenger from the right.
OK So the badgers seem to have got the better of him - but if we vote Out his price drops alot I think. The other potential runner, Patel - her performance on Question Time was solid, but icy cold.
"Replace 'English' with 'black', 'Jewish' or 'muslim' and you get a good idea of Roger's true attitude. Racism is racism and bigotry is bigotry"
A ridiculous comment and therefore surprising from you. If I said I was looking for a troupe of topless dancers so I would suggest starting the search in Brazil rather than Saudi Arabia I think you would accept the difference was culture not racism
Whichever side can manage to present a face that is not absolutely revolting has an excellent chance of winning the antifrank vote. Right now, both seem to be competing as hard as possible to lose it.
Whenever I see a post on corporation tax that starts off by contrasting turnover with corporation tax paid, I tend to skip it in order to avoid increasing my blood pressure.
Just to note that the breakdown of yesterday's Lords votes on Individual Voter Registration are still not reported on the Parliament website.
As posted last night, the results of the votes are in Hansard which says there is a technical problem.
I have no idea re Lords procedures but I do still wonder if there is a chance that the vote totals on the 2nd vote - which the Government very surprisingly won - are going to be amended.
I don't even know if the above is possible within the procedures of the Lords - maybe it's uncharted territory.
Bizarre that this should happen on a vote of such massive importance.
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
Leftists’ fawning over the Lords for voting to delay the Tories’ tax credit cuts is an embarrassingly Victorian spectacle. It also speaks to their profound contempt for democracy.
No sooner had the unelected peers voted by 289 to 272 to stymie the tax credit takedown than Labourites were whooping and tweeting their delight.
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
Just leave it mate you are sounding more and more like Alf Garnett with every post
@Roger The worst restaurants I've been to in the last decade or so was in London. Knocked the service charge (Of which there was no mention aside from a manual reconciliation) off the bill and told them any sort of tip was contained within their £4 Cokes
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
I try and avoid any restaurant or cafe in the West End, as there's invariably some half cut loud mouthed bore telling everyone within earshot about how much better the cheap foreign staff are compared to those 'horrible English ones'.
Pulpstar Two weeks ago in a London pub they tried to charge me 15% service charge ..at the bar..for two pints of beer..I gave them a choice... ps..The barman was from Latvia.. wanted to be an actor..
"Just leave it mate you are sounding more and more like Alf Garnett with every post "
From a UKIPer am I to take that as a compliment?
Just try giving your lazy stereotypes a rest... You sound like a viz character who thinks he is right on but comes over as a right wally #modernparents
I am sceptical about the increasing minimum wage though. It is likely to stress some organisations to the wall financially, especially in social care, and also to push up immigration.
Bluntly, if a company can't make a reasonable profit while paying its staff a decent wage it shouldn't be in business.
...
Running a business that only survives because of a supply of cheap labour is not acceptanle
The best comment on economic matters that I have read on here for a very long time. Someone needs to be bashing this message into the heads of the Conservative Leadership and they in turn should be shouting it from the rooftops especially those in Pall Mall and Cannon Street.
Just checked the weather for the weekend, and, on that basis, Mexico should be fine for racing (off-chance of rain during qualifying, probably dry for the race). Not sure if the damage from the hurricane will prevent it going ahead, though.
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
Perhaps you just piss off English waiting staff?
If I was waiting on someone with his attitude, I'd probably gob into his food.
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
Perhaps you just piss off English waiting staff?
If I was waiting on someone with his attitude, I'd probably gob into his food.
Mr. Antifrank, the referendum isn't also a vote in the 2020 General Election.
Besides, I'm almost certain to vote Out, but I'm neither a Kipper nor a Conservative.
Surely you'd rather base your view on the facts and best outcome for the UK, rather than looking at which set of supporters with whom you'd be most inclined to have dinner?
This decision will substantially affect the UK for decades to come. It's not about how we feel about putting a smile on Farage's or Juncker's face, but the long term interest of the country.
What's best for the UK includes how we develop as a society. This is not just an economic question but a question of identity. For me, the question of identity is more important. Neither identity that I am being presented with as a way forward is remotely appealing.
Whichever side can manage to present a face that is not absolutely revolting has an excellent chance of winning the antifrank vote. Right now, both seem to be competing as hard as possible to lose it.
I don't think a Leave vote would result in a UKIP election victory. If anything, the reverse.
But, I do think that the Overton Window in British politics would move in a nationalistic direction, rather than in an internationalistic direction. It's quite possible we would be dealing with a rather hostile EU. Even if we weren't, future British governments would be prioritising national interests, over and above international agreements. I'd welcome that development, but I imagine that you wouldn't.
David Cameron is well within his rights to point out that Norwegian politicians consider Norway's relations with the EU have downsides. If Leavers are going to be so brittle about every inconvenient argument, we will run out of Valium in the next two years.
Quite so.
It is equally facile to assume that the EU would be equally content to have an arms length relationship with a country of 64m which is the second or third largest market for pretty much every MS than they would with an extremely rich country of 5m.
The simplistic verities of both sides over the next couple of years are going to be extremely trying.
Just to note that the breakdown of yesterday's Lords votes on Individual Voter Registration are still not reported on the Parliament website.
As posted last night, the results of the votes are in Hansard which says there is a technical problem.
I have no idea re Lords procedures but I do still wonder if there is a chance that the vote totals on the 2nd vote - which the Government very surprisingly won - are going to be amended.
I don't even know if the above is possible within the procedures of the Lords - maybe it's uncharted territory.
Bizarre that this should happen on a vote of such massive importance.
Clearly it is not a "technical" problem. I suspect that some of the missing names on the 2nd resolution are being contacted to check whether they did in fact vote or just mistakenly left the building. If it is a miscount, I think we are in "hanging chads" territory. Does the Speaker of the HoL have the last word on this? Bizarre indeed. Not picked up by the media as far as I can tell.
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
Perhaps you just piss off English waiting staff?
If I was waiting on someone with his attitude, I'd probably gob into his food.
Isn't there a whole room set aside for that at Torture Garden?
on topic: re govt subsidising sitting room nail bar/interpretive dance studio start-ups. It is of course not appropriate and if a business can't survive either without govt subsidy in the form of WTC or a low wage bill in turn subsidised by WTC then the business owner should look elsewhere.
But in plenty of areas there is just such a subsidy (China built its post-communist success largely on a series of them) and it is IMO an excellent way to encourage new businesses with ofc a taper on subsidy as the business grows. That is where GO might focus (or should focus, I doubt he will).
Look at enterprise zones with reduced corporation tax, and other incentives. No reason why something similar shouldn't be applied to self-employed. It seems GO is treating them as employees rather than businesses, or have I got that wrong? If they are treated as businesses they should benefit from a sensible set of incentives that will help to grow the business which are not subject to cliff-edge withdrawal.
I've argued for some years that the Cameron renegotiation is precisely modelled on Wilson's - get some cosmetic changes so that Outers feel you've made an effort, then get a referendum for In. Don't even bother to wait for the actual deal with the EU, which could take years, just get it out of the way.
This has always been interpreted as cynical Labour bile, but it genuinely seems to me difficult to reconcile his behaviour with any other interpretation. All that's happening is that people who voted Tory in the expectation of a meaningful negotiation are gradually adjusting to reality. I used to be anti-EU myself ("An obstacle to progressive politics in Britain") so I've been there and have the T-shirt.
“According to the principle of unanimity applied in the EEA Joint Committee, all the EFTA states must agree in order for new EU legislation to be integrated into the EEA Agreement and for it to apply to cooperation between the EFTA states and the EU. If one EFTA state opposes integration, this also affects the other EFTA states in that the rules will not apply to them either, neither in the individual states nor between the EFTA states themselves nor in their relations with the EU. This possibility that each EFTA state has to object to new rules that lie within the scope of the EEA Agreement becoming applicable to the EFTA pillar is often referred to as these parties’ right of veto.”
JEO, this is an important matter, so it's important to get it right. That article does NOT say what you think it says.
Yes, there is a theoretical right for the EEA states not to implement a new EU law which covers the areas of the EEA agreement. But what would happen if they exercise that right?
The answer is in the page you linked to, section 6:
If, despite protracted attempts to find a solution within the framework of EEA cooperation, a state finds it necessary to exercise its right of veto, the affected part of the annex to the EEA Agreement to which the new legislation in question belongs is regarded as being provisionally suspended between the EFTA pillar and the EU.
i.e. they lose some (or in extremis all) of the access to the Single Market governed by the EEA agreement. That is why, as the article says, the right of veto has never been exercised.
In addition you need to read this bit:
Therefore, even though Norway has a genuine right of veto which gives us freedom to manoeuvre from a legal point of view, it is the Government’s view that our room for manoeuvre both as regards finding compromises with the EU in the EEA Joint Committee and as regards exercising our right of veto has been significantly curtailed since we entered into the EEA Agreement. This trend will be exacerbated by future enlargements of the EU to include new member states.
The possibility of exercising the right of veto in the EEA is part of the larger question of the scope of Norway’s room for manoeuvre on broad policy issues relating to important economic sectors, in relation to an EU pillar in which an increasing number of policy areas are being viewed as part of an integrated whole. The problem is rendered particularly relevant by the fact that the EU is increasingly implementing measures outside the scope of the EEA Agreement which have implications for Norway’s relative competitiveness in the internal market.
Cameron is not being dishonest: it is exactly the case that, in practical terms, Norway is bound by EU law in those areas covered by the EEA agreement, and that those areas are very wide.
Mr. Palmer, some of us always thought Cameron would be for In, no matter what. A referendum is chance to have our say, regardless (though I am concerned that In will likely win).
Opposing the EU is a matter of sovereignty, not on trying to advantage or disadvantage one particular political side.
I've argued for some years that the Cameron renegotiation is precisely modelled on Wilson's - get some cosmetic changes so that Outers feel you've made an effort, then get a referendum for In. Don't even bother to wait for the actual deal with the EU, which could take years, just get it out of the way.
This has always been interpreted as cynical Labour bile, but it genuinely seems to me difficult to reconcile his behaviour with any other interpretation. All that's happening is that people who voted Tory in the expectation of a meaningful negotiation are gradually adjusting to reality. I used to be anti-EU myself ("An obstacle to progressive politics in Britain") so I've been there and have the T-shirt.
I've argued for some years that the Cameron renegotiation is precisely modelled on Wilson's - get some cosmetic changes so that Outers feel you've made an effort, then get a referendum for In. Don't even bother to wait for the actual deal with the EU, which could take years, just get it out of the way.
This has always been interpreted as cynical Labour bile, but it genuinely seems to me difficult to reconcile his behaviour with any other interpretation. All that's happening is that people who voted Tory in the expectation of a meaningful negotiation are gradually adjusting to reality. I used to be anti-EU myself ("An obstacle to progressive politics in Britain") so I've been there and have the T-shirt.
Or, in plain English, the last Labour government was so irresponsible that it threw away our rights of veto (not to mention half our rebate) for nothing in return, so Cameron has been left with an incredibly difficult position in trying to salvage something from the mess bequeathed to him. Of course it is right that the negotiation should have been done before Labour locked us into the Lisbon Treaty - it would have been easy at that time to get the protections and opt-outs we need. But we are where we are.
If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
Don't underestimate the inbuilt conservatism of choosing a new leader while in government -
In UK: Brown (Chancellor) Major (Chancellor, Foreign Sec) Callaghan (All three top jobs) Home (Foreign Sec) Eden (Foreign Sec) Macmillan (Foreign Sec, Chancellor) Churchill (War Cabinet, Home, Chancellor) Chamberlain (Chancellor) Lloyd-George (Sec of State for War, Chancellor) Asquith (Chancellor) Balfour (effectively No 2 as Leader of Commons/First Lord) Roseberry (For Sec) etc etc etc
Not saying someone can't come from outside the top few or having held a top job, just that it hasn't happened for a long time!
I've argued for some years that the Cameron renegotiation is precisely modelled on Wilson's - get some cosmetic changes so that Outers feel you've made an effort, then get a referendum for In. Don't even bother to wait for the actual deal with the EU, which could take years, just get it out of the way.
This has always been interpreted as cynical Labour bile, but it genuinely seems to me difficult to reconcile his behaviour with any other interpretation. All that's happening is that people who voted Tory in the expectation of a meaningful negotiation are gradually adjusting to reality. I used to be anti-EU myself ("An obstacle to progressive politics in Britain") so I've been there and have the T-shirt.
Or, in plain English, the last Labour government was so irresponsible that it threw away our rights of veto (not to mention half our rebate) for nothing in return, so Cameron has been left with an incredibly difficult position in trying to salvage something from the mess bequeathed to him. Of course it is right that the negotiation should have been done before Labour locked us into the Lisbon Treaty - it would have been easy at that time to get the protections and opt-outs we need. But we are where we are.
A problem he [GO] has got with the tax credits move is that he could get stuck with the tag of wanting to make the poor poorer.
This is plainly a ridiculous statement. What percentage of the electorate (excluding green eyed loony lefties who would never vote for him) would believe that any politician had a policy of making the poor poorer? It denies humanity and doesn't win votes.
We are a democracy and like all democracies one with different quirks and wrinkles. However, the one thing that all democracies have in common is a primary voting process. This guarantees that politicians striving for power will prioritise the winning of votes as an objective. Corbyn has a two tier power strategy, first the Labour party, then the country.
If there is one thing that GO isn't, it's stupid. He has always known that WTC reform is not a vote winner. It will largely appeal to core Tory voters. This is why he's in a hurry to get it done quickly. That, and to give reform a chance of having demonstrably "worked" when 2020 comes around. But it’s still a risk and a risk that he’s taken which might be interpreted as part of a Tories first power strategy, mimicking Corbyn. I don’t buy this. It’s not a percentage play. Front runners have traditionally tended to do badly in Leadership Election Stakes – Burnham being the most recent example. I think most would agree that GO fancies himself as a shrewd political player. Taking a risk he doesn’t need to take early in the race is not a move he would make.
All of this leads me to conclude that there is a significant possibility that GO might not be too fussed about becoming leader. It also suggests that GO might be a radical, reforming Chancellor whose interest is in restructuring the economy in line with his political views. The next few weeks will probably decide how accurate my reading of the situation is. If I’m anywhere near right then GO will rank very highly in my estimation.
Yougov leader ratings. Good news for Cameron and Farage. Not good news for Corbyn. Horrible news for Farron.
Good news for Cameron? His favourability rating is down 4 (Corbyn's is just down 1), his unfavourability up 5 (Corbyn's is up 11). Not a good one for either of them, in different ways. Farron's favourability is up 6, though so is his unfavourability - essentially people are starting to get to know him.
Basically everyone's unpopular, but it's probably most relevant to look at favourability ratings since in a multi-party system any leader is likely to assemble unfavouable ratings from opponents. Cameron and Farage both over 40, which is OK but not wonderful.
'I've already said downthread how I think Cameron can express his views and give leadership, without compromising his own renegotiation.'
With respect I actually think that is nonsense. If you are not really interested in substantial renegotiation and also put people in charge of it who are not interested, then the prospects of achieving significant changes are zero.
EU opponents need to be arguing their case independently from this whole process, which is a complete sham.
Surely this is exactly what the Outers want. A renegotiation that is nothing but a sham and which indicates business as usual.
It is the Inners who should be worried about the substance and extent of Cameron's negotiations, not those who have already decided to leave. They (and he) need a package which is more attractive to the British people than the current mess. It increasingly looks like they won't get it.
The attacks on Cameron's positioning by committed Outers are bizarre and contradictory. It is almost as if they believe they have already lost and are looking for excuses about how unfair it all was.
If he gets ministerial experience under his belt in the next 2-3 years then maybe.
Who is offering odds on him?
100/1 as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes
Dave became Tory leader four years after becoming an MP, so Mercer can follow that trajectory is possible.
Don't underestimate the inbuilt conservatism of choosing a new leader while in government -
In UK: Brown (Chancellor) Major (Chancellor, Foreign Sec) Callaghan (All three top jobs) Home (Foreign Sec) Eden (Foreign Sec) Macmillan (Foreign Sec, Chancellor) Churchill (War Cabinet, Home, Chancellor) Chamberlain (Chancellor) Lloyd-George (Sec of State for War, Chancellor) Asquith (Chancellor) Balfour (effectively No 2 as Leader of Commons/First Lord) Roseberry (For Sec) etc etc etc
Not saying someone can't come from outside the top few or having held a top job, just that it hasn't happened for a long time!
I know, but this is the first time the Tory membership have chosen a leader whilst they are in office.
After a fractious EU referendum, anything is possible.
Add more Tories will run than usual, because everyone thinks they can defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
On topic, I don't really see the problem. The main thing between Osborne and power is Conservative voters, and a reputation for making the poor poorer isn't going to be devastating when trying to get their votes.
In any case, his changes will be the new normal by the time that election comes around; Most likely even Labour will be playing them down, as the cost of reversing them goes beyond what can be paid for by the normal minor opposition levy on untelegenic people or whatever.
It's really no good moaning about Labour governments giving up the UK's right of veto. The Conservatives have done exactly the same thing in the past, crucially surrendering it over important areas via the Single European Act and Maastricht.
The idea that we should be in to stop the others doing beastly things i.e. be a spanner in the works might have made some sense in the 1960s, even up to the mid-1980s. But it makes no sense now, given that the veto has been whittled away to almost nothing.
And is it is whittled away yet further as the years roll on, no doubt Richard N and otehrs will keep telling us it still makes sense to be in to exercise our increasingly ephemeral 'influence'. The same old tired, discredited rubbish.
A problem he [GO] has got with the tax credits move is that he could get stuck with the tag of wanting to make the poor poorer.
This is plainly a ridiculous statement. What percentage of the electorate (excluding green eyed loony lefties who would never vote for him) would believe that any politician had a policy of making the poor poorer? It denies humanity and doesn't win votes.
We are a democracy and like all democracies one with different quirks and wrinkles. However, the one thing that all democracies have in common is a primary voting process. This guarantees that politicians striving for power will prioritise the winning of votes as an objective. Corbyn has a two tier power strategy, first the Labour party, then the country.
If there is one thing that GO isn't, it's stupid. He has always known that WTC reform is not a vote winner. It will largely appeal to core Tory voters. This is why he's in a hurry to get it done quickly. That, and to give reform a chance of having demonstrably "worked" when 2020 comes around. But it’s still a risk and a risk that he’s taken which might be interpreted as part of a Tories first power strategy, mimicking Corbyn. I don’t buy this. It’s not a percentage play. Front runners have traditionally tended to do badly in Leadership Election Stakes – Burnham being the most recent example. I think most would agree that GO fancies himself as a shrewd political player. Taking a risk he doesn’t need to take early in the race is not a move he would make.
All of this leads me to conclude that there is a significant possibility that GO might not be too fussed about becoming leader. It also suggests that GO might be a radical, reforming Chancellor whose interest is in restructuring the economy in line with his political views. The next few weeks will probably decide how accurate my reading of the situation is. If I’m anywhere near right then GO will rank very highly in my estimation.
Interest points. May I put an alternative. Osborne reckons that if he can deliver the fabled budget surplus just as the leadership election takes place, all else will have been forgotten by the people who count: Tory MPs and then the membership. He will be a hero. The real risk is that it is undeliverable, not least because we are due another recession and only Gordon eliminated boom and bust :-)
It's really no good moaning about Labour governments giving up the UK's right of veto. The Conservatives have done exactly the same thing in the past, crucially surrendering it over important areas via the Single European Act and Maastricht.
This is true (although of course John Major did secure vital opt-outs in Maastricht, most notably on the Euro), but the Lisbon Treaty was the most important; it was the Lisbon Treaty which was a comprehensive reorganisation of EU governance. It was therefore the best opportunity to get things right, and we would have had a lot of leverage.
That opportunity was lost, thanks to Blair and Brown, leaving us faced with the unenviable choice of either trying to claw things back retrospectively, or leaving and trying to renegotiate from the outside. Both are positions of unnecessary weakness, compared with our position before Lisbon.
Cameron looking shifty by repeatedly not answering Corbyn's question.
Won't play well on the evening news.
Indeed. The idea that no-one must ever "lose out" (defined, of course, as within a narrow time frame) is obviously flawed, but loss aversion is such a cornerstone of human psychology that the PM can't simply say so.
On topic, I don't really see the problem. The main thing between Osborne and power is Conservative voters, and a reputation for making the poor poorer isn't going to be devastating when trying to get their votes.
In any case, his changes will be the new normal by the time that election comes around; Most likely even Labour will be playing them down, as the cost of reversing them goes beyond what can be paid for by the normal minor opposition levy on untelegenic people or whatever.
Correct. Large savings and cuts have already taken place in tax credits over the last 5 years with happy co-operation from the libdems. Brown's unaffordable largess needs to be cut. If a government cannot be taking its unpopular decision s at the beginning of its term it never will. This latest measure will reduce the numbers of families with children receiving tax credits from 6 out of 10 to 5. It was 9 out of 10 in 2010.
Cameron looking shifty by repeatedly not answering Corbyn's question.
Won't play well on the evening news.
Indeed. The idea that no-one must ever "lose out" (defined, of course, as within a narrow time frame) is obviously flawed, but loss aversion is such a cornerstone of human psychology that the PM can't simply say so.
The corollary is that it's politically easy to save money by restricting future entitlements (qv. Child Benefit). You just don't save it straight away.
'The attacks on Cameron's positioning by committed Outers are bizarre and contradictory. It is almost as if they believe they have already lost and are looking for excuses about how unfair it all was'
David - not at all. What I am saying is that outers should not get hung up on Cameron's predictable vapourings but get on and argue their case. Cameron is not on our side and never will be.
That will need to include exposing any renegotiated terms as a sham of course. There are a lot of voters who may still be inclined to take the PM's word that real changes have been made.
As I said earlier the key to winning is to raise the consciousness of the voters and get a real national debate going - in much the same way as the SNP managed to do in Scotland. If 'out' can do that then its chances of winning are very good I think.
'The attacks on Cameron's positioning by committed Outers are bizarre and contradictory. It is almost as if they believe they have already lost and are looking for excuses about how unfair it all was'
David - not at all. What I am saying is that outers should not get hung up on Cameron's predictable vapourings but get on and argue their case. Cameron is not on our side and never will be.
That will need to include exposing any renegotiated terms as a sham of course. There are a lot of voters who may still be inclined to take the PM's word that real changes have been made.
As I said earlier the key to winning is to raise the consciousness of the voters and get a real national debate going - in much the same way as the SNP managed to do in Scotland. If 'out' can do that then its chances of winning are very good I think.
Then I have misunderstood you and we are in agreement (although I am pretty sure the SNP lost).
Yougov leader ratings. Good news for Cameron and Farage. Not good news for Corbyn. Horrible news for Farron.
I doubt more than a 5th of the country knows who Tim Farron is – can’t believe how quiet he’s been since his election to party leader.
I'm not sure it's entirely his fault. The issue for the LDs is that they used to be one of the big 3, which meant regular coverage on the news. Now they are 4th on seats (behind SNP) and 4th on votes (behind UKIP), which effectively means they have been relegated to the 2nd tier of parties. Worse could be to come if they lose major party status in Scotland with Ofcom.
The challenge for the LDs is finding one or two issues where they can distinguish themselves from all the other parties (particularly Lab and the Greens).
Comments
Still looking like George to me in 2019.
But it's because of that that I get so disappointed when he acts like this.
And with that I really must go now.
I really don't recognise your caricatures here at all.
Besides, I'm almost certain to vote Out, but I'm neither a Kipper nor a Conservative.
Surely you'd rather base your view on the facts and best outcome for the UK, rather than looking at which set of supporters with whom you'd be most inclined to have dinner?
This decision will substantially affect the UK for decades to come. It's not about how we feel about putting a smile on Farage's or Juncker's face, but the long term interest of the country.
Enjoyable read. (I also like and agree with Mr Llama's comment)
PS I think you're showing some unconscious sexism, talking about women and mentioning a vacuum in the first line
With respect I actually think that is nonsense. If you are not really interested in substantial renegotiation and also put people in charge of it who are not interested, then the prospects of achieving significant changes are zero.
EU opponents need to be arguing their case independently from this whole process, which is a complete sham.
There's nothing sexist about my writing. The lesbianism in my WIP is entirely justified artistically.
Mercer took a seat from Labour in May, he'll have five years of incumbency. Plus he's impressive.
I know, I've got a massive man crush on Mercer, but I like him a lot, and think he'll hold whatever seat he contests in 2020, very comfortable.
Whichever side can manage to present a face that is not absolutely revolting has an excellent chance of winning the antifrank vote. Right now, both seem to be competing as hard as possible to lose it.
Tax on sales does exist already. It's called VAT.
We also pay business rates whether a corporation is profitable or loss making. And Employers NI a tax on hiring people. And so on.
Oh and dividends can only be paid from profits that have been taxed. Loss making business pay no corporation tax but pay no dividends either.
Mercer's an interesting option, but I prefer Rory Stewart.
Or, indeed, like 3 years ago...
Having said that at the General Election I just couldn't bring myself to vote Conservative as I found the campaign utterly vulgar and far too personal against Ed Miliband. I figured enough would though, and was very happy with the final result. I liked the Tory plan, just not Lynton's methods ^_~. My vote was most likely not going to count either (Though my constituency was closer than I expected !)
I'm going to have to do my best not to be dissuaded from voting for either side on the EU referendum as my vote will actually count in this one (All the votes will) based off a contrarian view of the campaigns...
"The mask slips. Pure bigotry"
Observation not bigotry. How many English waiters or waitresses do you come accross in an average week? In Scotland yes but that's not somewhere you'd choose for a gastronomic week-end.
We just have to accept that different countries produce different talents. The English excel on the creative side which is why (Watford) if you want to launch a new line of toilet paper anywhere in the world you are likely to fly in an English director!
Grow up for heavens sake, this referendum ensures that if we vote OUT the next elected govt will not be restricted by Brussels or indeed have the comfort blanket of the EU to fall back on, they'll have to govern properly for the benefit of GB, not people elsewhere.
The next govt will be conservative, I want them to govern us out of the EU.
Osborne and Boris will have most of the Cameroon vote sewn up so Morgan and Soubry if they stand will struggle to get any votes. We need to look at who will be the candidates from the right and centre. May has obviously realised this and with her immigration speech is looking to become the 2nd choice of the right. Of the names mentioned above, only Patel seems to me to have any chance as she is more on the right.
OK So the badgers seem to have got the better of him - but if we vote Out his price drops alot I think. The other potential runner, Patel - her performance on Question Time was solid, but icy cold.
"Replace 'English' with 'black', 'Jewish' or 'muslim' and you get a good idea of Roger's true attitude. Racism is racism and bigotry is bigotry"
A ridiculous comment and therefore surprising from you. If I said I was looking for a troupe of topless dancers so I would suggest starting the search in Brazil rather than Saudi Arabia I think you would accept the difference was culture not racism
She justified her support of the death penalty by saying we don't convict innocent people (I paraphrase)
Goodness how very tiresome for you, old thing.
As posted last night, the results of the votes are in Hansard which says there is a technical problem.
I have no idea re Lords procedures but I do still wonder if there is a chance that the vote totals on the 2nd vote - which the Government very surprisingly won - are going to be amended.
I don't even know if the above is possible within the procedures of the Lords - maybe it's uncharted territory.
Bizarre that this should happen on a vote of such massive importance.
'Roger, it's the '(thank God)' that tipped your post over the line, from mere observation to bigotry. You know it, and we know it. "
You worked in Soho (I think) so no use pretending you don't know what I'm talking about. There's an enjoyment in the job which is something you rarely get from English waiters and waitresses who often give the impression they'd prefer to be doing something else. It gives the bars and restauants a vibe and a vitality.
I can't believe I'm the only person on here who has noticed?
"Just leave it mate you are sounding more and more like Alf Garnett with every post "
From a UKIPer am I to take that as a compliment?
But, I do think that the Overton Window in British politics would move in a nationalistic direction, rather than in an internationalistic direction. It's quite possible we would be dealing with a rather hostile EU. Even if we weren't, future British governments would be prioritising national interests, over and above international agreements. I'd welcome that development, but I imagine that you wouldn't.
It is equally facile to assume that the EU would be equally content to have an arms length relationship with a country of 64m which is the second or third largest market for pretty much every MS than they would with an extremely rich country of 5m.
The simplistic verities of both sides over the next couple of years are going to be extremely trying.
on topic: re govt subsidising sitting room nail bar/interpretive dance studio start-ups. It is of course not appropriate and if a business can't survive either without govt subsidy in the form of WTC or a low wage bill in turn subsidised by WTC then the business owner should look elsewhere.
But in plenty of areas there is just such a subsidy (China built its post-communist success largely on a series of them) and it is IMO an excellent way to encourage new businesses with ofc a taper on subsidy as the business grows. That is where GO might focus (or should focus, I doubt he will).
Look at enterprise zones with reduced corporation tax, and other incentives. No reason why something similar shouldn't be applied to self-employed. It seems GO is treating them as employees rather than businesses, or have I got that wrong? If they are treated as businesses they should benefit from a sensible set of incentives that will help to grow the business which are not subject to cliff-edge withdrawal.
This has always been interpreted as cynical Labour bile, but it genuinely seems to me difficult to reconcile his behaviour with any other interpretation. All that's happening is that people who voted Tory in the expectation of a meaningful negotiation are gradually adjusting to reality. I used to be anti-EU myself ("An obstacle to progressive politics in Britain") so I've been there and have the T-shirt.
Yes, there is a theoretical right for the EEA states not to implement a new EU law which covers the areas of the EEA agreement. But what would happen if they exercise that right?
The answer is in the page you linked to, section 6:
If, despite protracted attempts to find a solution within the framework of EEA cooperation, a state finds it necessary to exercise its right of veto, the affected part of the annex to the EEA Agreement to which the new legislation in question belongs is regarded as being provisionally suspended between the EFTA pillar and the EU.
i.e. they lose some (or in extremis all) of the access to the Single Market governed by the EEA agreement. That is why, as the article says, the right of veto has never been exercised.
In addition you need to read this bit:
Therefore, even though Norway has a genuine right of veto which gives us freedom to manoeuvre from a legal point of view, it is the Government’s view that our room for manoeuvre both as regards finding compromises with the EU in the EEA Joint Committee and as regards exercising our right of veto has been significantly curtailed since we entered into the EEA Agreement. This trend will be exacerbated by future enlargements of the EU to include new member states.
The possibility of exercising the right of veto in the EEA is part of the larger question of the scope of Norway’s room for manoeuvre on broad policy issues relating to important economic sectors, in relation to an EU pillar in which an increasing number of policy areas are being viewed as part of an integrated whole. The problem is rendered particularly relevant by the fact that the EU is increasingly implementing measures outside the scope of the EEA Agreement which have implications for Norway’s relative competitiveness in the internal market.
Cameron is not being dishonest: it is exactly the case that, in practical terms, Norway is bound by EU law in those areas covered by the EEA agreement, and that those areas are very wide.
Opposing the EU is a matter of sovereignty, not on trying to advantage or disadvantage one particular political side.
Yougov leader ratings. Good news for Cameron and Farage. Not good news for Corbyn. Horrible news for Farron.
In UK:
Brown (Chancellor)
Major (Chancellor, Foreign Sec)
Callaghan (All three top jobs)
Home (Foreign Sec)
Eden (Foreign Sec)
Macmillan (Foreign Sec, Chancellor)
Churchill (War Cabinet, Home, Chancellor)
Chamberlain (Chancellor)
Lloyd-George (Sec of State for War, Chancellor)
Asquith (Chancellor)
Balfour (effectively No 2 as Leader of Commons/First Lord)
Roseberry (For Sec)
etc etc etc
Not saying someone can't come from outside the top few or having held a top job, just that it hasn't happened for a long time!
A problem he [GO] has got with the tax credits move is that he could get stuck with the tag of wanting to make the poor poorer.
This is plainly a ridiculous statement. What percentage of the electorate (excluding green eyed loony lefties who would never vote for him) would believe that any politician had a policy of making the poor poorer? It denies humanity and doesn't win votes.
We are a democracy and like all democracies one with different quirks and wrinkles. However, the one thing that all democracies have in common is a primary voting process. This guarantees that politicians striving for power will prioritise the winning of votes as an objective. Corbyn has a two tier power strategy, first the Labour party, then the country.
If there is one thing that GO isn't, it's stupid. He has always known that WTC reform is not a vote winner. It will largely appeal to core Tory voters. This is why he's in a hurry to get it done quickly. That, and to give reform a chance of having demonstrably "worked" when 2020 comes around. But it’s still a risk and a risk that he’s taken which might be interpreted as part of a Tories first power strategy, mimicking Corbyn. I don’t buy this. It’s not a percentage play. Front runners have traditionally tended to do badly in Leadership Election Stakes – Burnham being the most recent example. I think most would agree that GO fancies himself as a shrewd political player. Taking a risk he doesn’t need to take early in the race is not a move he would make.
All of this leads me to conclude that there is a significant possibility that GO might not be too fussed about becoming leader. It also suggests that GO might be a radical, reforming Chancellor whose interest is in restructuring the economy in line with his political views. The next few weeks will probably decide how accurate my reading of the situation is. If I’m anywhere near right then GO will rank very highly in my estimation.
Basically everyone's unpopular, but it's probably most relevant to look at favourability ratings since in a multi-party system any leader is likely to assemble unfavouable ratings from opponents. Cameron and Farage both over 40, which is OK but not wonderful.
It is the Inners who should be worried about the substance and extent of Cameron's negotiations, not those who have already decided to leave. They (and he) need a package which is more attractive to the British people than the current mess. It increasingly looks like they won't get it.
The attacks on Cameron's positioning by committed Outers are bizarre and contradictory. It is almost as if they believe they have already lost and are looking for excuses about how unfair it all was.
After a fractious EU referendum, anything is possible.
Add more Tories will run than usual, because everyone thinks they can defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
In any case, his changes will be the new normal by the time that election comes around; Most likely even Labour will be playing them down, as the cost of reversing them goes beyond what can be paid for by the normal minor opposition levy on untelegenic people or whatever.
The idea that we should be in to stop the others doing beastly things i.e. be a spanner in the works might have made some sense in the 1960s, even up to the mid-1980s. But it makes no sense now, given that the veto has been whittled away to almost nothing.
And is it is whittled away yet further as the years roll on, no doubt Richard N and otehrs will keep telling us it still makes sense to be in to exercise our increasingly ephemeral 'influence'. The same old tired, discredited rubbish.
COMPLETION OF MOVE TO INDIVIDUAL VOTER REGISTRATION CONFIRMED
Vote Details:
For LD Motion:
Crossbench 14
Lab 147
LD 79
Other 6
TOTAL 246
Against LD Motion:
Con 208
Crossbench 41
Other 7
TOTAL 257
Turnout:
Con 208 out of 235 (89%)
Lab 147 out of 206 (71%)
LD 79 out of 103 (77%)
So Govt won due to huge Con turnout combined with very poor Lab turnout for such a vital vote.
Con had 217 present on Mon for tax credits, 208 yesterday only slightly down.
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/?date=2015-Oct-27&itemId=2&session=2015-May-18
Won't play well on the evening news.
That opportunity was lost, thanks to Blair and Brown, leaving us faced with the unenviable choice of either trying to claw things back retrospectively, or leaving and trying to renegotiate from the outside. Both are positions of unnecessary weakness, compared with our position before Lisbon.
Large savings and cuts have already taken place in tax credits over the last 5 years with happy co-operation from the libdems.
Brown's unaffordable largess needs to be cut.
If a government cannot be taking its unpopular decision s at the beginning of its term it never will.
This latest measure will reduce the numbers of families with children receiving tax credits from 6 out of 10 to 5. It was 9 out of 10 in 2010.
David - not at all. What I am saying is that outers should not get hung up on Cameron's predictable vapourings but get on and argue their case. Cameron is not on our side and never will be.
That will need to include exposing any renegotiated terms as a sham of course. There are a lot of voters who may still be inclined to take the PM's word that real changes have been made.
As I said earlier the key to winning is to raise the consciousness of the voters and get a real national debate going - in much the same way as the SNP managed to do in Scotland. If 'out' can do that then its chances of winning are very good I think.
Thanet councillor Emma Dawson is the seventh member to quit Ukip and will join Conservatives
http://bit.ly/1PQpnzM
The challenge for the LDs is finding one or two issues where they can distinguish themselves from all the other parties (particularly Lab and the Greens).
Cheeky welcome from Dave to Tim: It's good to see such a high turnout of his MPs #PMQs