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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne – the Volkswagen of British politics – having take
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne – the Volkswagen of British politics – having taken a reputational hit the question is can he recover?
George Osborne is a bit like Volkswagen – never really loved but until a short time ago highly regarded for reliability and performance. Then came the tax credits – his version of the diesel emissions scandal with the defeat software designed to get round environmental tests.
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He would rather the poor were poorer? Were have I heard that before?
Noone misses it, it was just a lot of hot air that dissipated quickly.
Osborne could have avoided the tax credits mess, but he will just have to swerve a bit.
Could have picked this to fill some space instead?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11958942/The-Liberal-Democrats-have-profaned-their-principles-by-blocking-tax-credits-in-the-Lords.html
I wonder why that article from William Hague wasn't used instead. It's a mystery.
An ageing British classic with a nohair top .... sorry mohair top ....
But Osborne has not done a VW. He just has had a minor setback. We are seeing that a tiny majority is not a licence to pass anything. Some transitional reliefs or "granfather rights" would do wonders. The long term project is one that the party supports.
I am sceptical about the increasing minimum wage though. It is likely to stress some organisations to the wall financially, especially in social care, and also to push up immigration.
Mike's thread header is merely bland.
Actually yes, reading it again, I agree with you. Mike is talking nonsense.
It's rather an odd feeling to be on the same side of the fence as you.
There are so many opportunities there to gain something out of this adversity. My expectation is that over the next few months Osborne's dominance of the national narrative will be even greater and Labour will look like they have nothing useful to say. I also suspect that rather more people will have been genuinely shocked at the profligate generosity of Tax Credits than appalled by the cuts.
Nothing lasts forever of course and (almost) all political careers end in failure but it is a bit premature to be writing Osborne off just yet.
A spluttering two stroke of dubious antecedence ....
The opposition has been able to sell it as cruel and that’s the sort of reputation one doesn’t want to earn.
I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it ....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34654797
He seems to be campaigning to stay in the EU before he's even got his 'deal'. Not that I'm surprised.
Sadly companies like Osborne and Little with a turnover since 2008 of 200m have creatively manage to pay nothing, ZERO, actually claiming a Corporation Tax refund. The Baronet running it gets about 600k a year.
If you wonder why the books of the country do not balance start with the Chancellor and his family and work your way down.
It IS legal. Fair enough. Whether it should be is a moot point.
Imagine if companies paid a fairer share? Even a 0.5% revenue tax would turn it around.
If I was Labour I would promote this farce in the MSM at every opportunity and Osborne would not even be a Dinky car toy let alone a VW.
Clearly stocking up on Artic Roll for Christmas lunch at Chequers.
The Baronet will be paying nearly £300,000 in tax from the money he gets from the company. The company will be paying Employers NI for good measure.
As with the WTC taking one measure in isolation gives a highly distorted view.
This seems to be a really dishonest argument, given that Norway gets a veto over whether EU laws get in enforced in the EEA. It's like arguing France gets no influence in the EU because it doesn't have any MPs at Westminster.
Also, how stupid is Cameron at negotiating if he is to argue against alternatives before the negotiation is done? It's like he wants to reduce our leverage.
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/find-document/dep/UD/reports-to-the-storting/20002001/report_no-12_to_the_storting_2000-2001/7/id193725/
Ugh, it really will toxify the debate if senior figures on one side start using dishonest arguments to deceive the British public.
If someone was on here saying Camoron or Gidiot you'd be decrying the decline of intelligent political debate, or telling us how much you hate stereotypes...
21 000 people in Leics could be lifted out of poverty by giving up smoking. Vox pops from people buying ciggies on the Saffron Lane estate often spending £70-100 per week on an early death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsz7gIfALpU
Don't know if its true but I was told that cigs are so expensive now (a packet of B and H I am told is now circa TEN POUNDS ) that the fag co's are introducing smaller size packs...
I was a 20+ a day smoker and I save 200 a month plus since I gave up. Worst life decision I ever made was to take that first puff.
I might also add that it gives a boost to another leadership candidate with the initials PP.
We need a clean, honest debate. And it will be appalling if Cameron himself is the one that starts the dishonest at a high level.
The question is whether the tax credit issue would stick to Osborne. I suspect not. Cutting welfare is what people expect Tory chancellors to do in a deficit reduction programme. "Making the poor poorer" is a campaign slogan but one that can be - and is being - countered with tax thresholds and the minimum wage. I suspect that such a campaign would reinforce existing prejudices on both sides rather than swinging many people from one camp to the other.
We do have a proliferation of charity shops where folk on the Harpenden Living Wage of £100K a year are forced to shop for the bare essentials of local life - old AGA cookery books, vintage Chanel suits and silver entrée dishes.
Don't forget Mike ..... we're all in this together.
Not sure I buy the comparison, given Volkswagen deliberately broke rules to get around emissions legislation by providing a misleading picture.
No criticism for the House of Lords throwing a century of convention in the bin by voting down a finance matter passed three times by the democratically elected government?
Meanwhile, he continues to have a huge support base in the Parliamentary party and in all likelihood David Cameron will discreetly try to assist his friend by timing his own resignation for the most helpful moment. If George Osborne wants the job, he is almost certainly going to be in the last two. The market has overreacted.
Does he have a job? Or does he just not require sleep, like Toby Stephens in Die Another Day?
All that being said, there are several very good reasons why we do not tax revenue instead of profits. Profits are by definition surplus to requirements. Companies can manage without the money they have. So there is no hardship involved in taking them off. However, revenue/turnover (depending on definition) come in even at a struggling company that is barely breaking even or even making heavy losses. The time that is likeliest to happen is, oooh, maybe during a trade slump like the one we've been in for several years. Adding an additional tax burden on such companies would probably make them unviable and put all their workers out of work. While there is a good capitalist argument for unviable companies to collapse, there is a good social argument for keeping them going in difficult times and letting them slide when work is easier to find. A 0.5% revenue tax, for example, would have completely ruined RBS in 2008 - it would, literally, have gone bankrupt even after the government intervention - and left the country very much worse off than it currently is.
The key problem, and it undoubtedly is a problem, is that companies find ingenious ways to whack lots of goodies on expenses and therefore take them off the profits before paying tax. Unfortunately, there is no easy way of dealing with that except to have an exhaustive list of what is or is not permitted as expenses. Since our tax code is already the longest in Western Europe, that would probably be a bad idea. Osborne's new law on taxes 'reasonably expected to pay' is a bit of a paper tiger, because it does not define what is reasonable.
If there are any reasonably practicable way of getting round this difficulty, I have yet to hear it. So we're stuck with what we've got.
I'll say it till I'm blue in the face, the Tories since May have been displaying an unseemly smugness, that ALWAYS ends in tears, it seems things are beginning to unravel already. As others point out below, Cameron's EU stance is floundering before it's really begun.
The Tory response to the tax credits farce is to blame the Lords.
I'd suggest a little more modesty and humility from some would soften the eventual fall.
I think he's sometimes admired, often respected, even feared, but not loved. It's the key reason why I remain very doubtful that he will be the next PM. If there's anyone who knows differently I'd be interested to hear more.
But however frustrated I get at one side or another, I will be determining my judgment not on how I feel personally towards the current generation of politicians, but what the Leave and Remain options look like tangibly, after the negotiation and after I have learnt more from the campaign.
So won't be able to watch it today or tomorrow as I'm seeing One Direction tomorrow.
If he wants it, he will probably make the last two. But he has to win the membership vote too and, of that, I'm not so sure.
Seriously?
Boris is actively disliked more by the parliamentary party which is a real hindrance.
It comes from his previous stint as an MP. Most MPs have to walk on egg shells and not say the wrong thing whereas Boris can say what he likes and doesn't gets into trouble.
Plus on Tory MP away days he turned up in very expensive cars (he was the motoring correspondent of GQ) and that didn't go down to well either nor the fact he was able to earn vast amounts elsewhere.
Solid plan...
It is just so dishonest to argue that we wouldn't have control over EU laws when we don't have councillors, commisioners etc when we would have a bloody veto. It's like saying the US military is in a poor position compared to Russia because they don't have any MiGs.
I'm still not at all sure that George Osborne will ultimately run. If he can carry on doing what he's doing now, he'd probably prefer to see a protege in Number 10. So look closely at his political friends. The successor to David Cameron may be one of those.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-34654460
More sensible than mad Merkel's siren call. I especially enjoy the graph. Just have a look how big the Syrian bar is (for asylum seeker origins). And then marvel how 14% of claimants is made to look so very massive
It's Osborne against whoever emerges. That's what we still don't know.
However, imagine a Johnson-Corbyn TV debate, where neither of them could string a coherent sentence together and kept forgetting why they were there. All it would need is to be surrounded by men in white coats carrying straitjackets to be the classic 'select lunatic to run asylum' gig!
You only had to watch programmes like Benefits St and Skint (two different parts of the country) to see everyone smoking and drinking from cans of beer. I am not stereotyping here it was there right in front of you and it was constant all day long The issue is I could never afford to smoke at the prices as they were even then which was close to 9 quid a pack. ( not that I would even want to)
My point is They were basically burning mine and many others hard earned cash. Poverty in some households is not being able to afford a lighter to ignite your next ciggie. Despite the bleating of the left. My view is you are caught smoking then benefits are cut and no food banks to bale you out.
More than happy to help and give a leg up to anyone genuine down on their luck and needing welfare to get by while they get back on track. . However, If you can afford to smoke and drink you don't need the help of those of all of the rest of us grafting day in and day out to support your life style choice while they sit around and bemoan their lot.
The EU referendum already has the feel of deja vu. The PM and most of the media pretending to get a good deal for the UK while hiding the real facts. Just like forty years ago, when I took a great deal of interest.
This time I'm bored. It worked once so they're repeating the trick. And assuming the young are gullible.
18 months before they became Tory leaders Cameron, Howard, IDS, Hague, Major and Thatcher were all longish odds/not the favourite.
Someone will emerge. They always do
For the Tories to win in 2020 they need to retain all those Lib Dem switchers, so hopefully they'll go for someone who appeals to them. We like being in power.
Of course, many more do not.
WatsonOsborne (Freudian slip)!I think I know the answer to this.. TSE is being duplicitous as it wasn't a VW....
Basically a sports car on a 4x4 floor plan.
Every time you put your foot down it felt like a beautiful lady was putting her hands down your pants and having a good old rummage.
However, it was a speech to the board of the BHA, so none of them will have known the difference anyway!
http://ponyonthetories.blogspot.co.uk/
Still backing George.
- is he a good politician ? You pays your money and makes your choice, he likes wheezes, does short term dividing lines etc.
- is he a good CoE, no. He doesn't attack vested interest, doesn't reform and uses his office as a political platform rather than for the good of the country.
Gordon Brown's Mini-me
The media and UK politicians love to quote Norwegian politicians stating that they have no influence. However, the Norwegian politicians, for the most part, are rabidly Europhile. What is important is that the Norwegian people are happy with their relationship with the EU and have no expressed a desire to join it.
If Cameron comes back with a second class associate membership with all the downsides of remaining in the EU and none of the benefits of a looser relationship he will be entirely to blame for splitting the Tories.
@MichaelPDeacon: The first betrayal. Via @JamesManning https://t.co/3QjdMf85D4
That being said, the wound is entirely self-inflicted so they deserve no actual sympathy.