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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great grad-non grad voting divide in both the US and UK

The above table highlights a big trend in the Republican primaries which has strong echoes in the UK. The quite different voting patterns of those who went to university and those who didn’t.

Read the full story here

Beverley_C

First!

Beverley_C

C'mon PB ... get with the programme....

Beverley_C

I think I will open a bottle of red while I wait

HYUFD

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

JEO

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

Morris_Dancer

Mrs C, don't blame us for your wine habit

Few more markets up on Ladbrokes. May actually have to start thinking about what my guess should be...

HYUFD

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

rcs1000

http://davidlearmount.com/2015/10/24/clutha-questions/

HYUFD

@realDonaldTrump 9 mins9 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
.@CBSNews Poll - WOW! New Hampshire TRUMP 38% CARSON 12% BUSH 8% South Carolina TRUMP 40% CARSON 23% CRUZ 8% Iowa TRUMP 27% CARSON 27%

Sean_F

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

FPT, I think in the Series, she is heading in the direction of villain protagonist. But, I think that's a case where the Series has changed a book character into someone different from the books (Tyrion, by contrast, is far nicer in the Series than the books). In the books, she still has a cruel streak, but much less than in the Series.

GeoffM

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's nothing close to double figures anywhere in there.
As serious analysis this rates as Background Meh.

HYUFD

GeoffM said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's nothing close to double figures anywhere in there.
As serious analysis this rates as Background Meh.

Oh for goodness sake, there are still over 10 candidates in the race so it would be extremely difficult at this stage for there to be a more than 10% difference but the trend is evident, Trump's core is white, male, non graduates sympathetic to the Tea Party

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

AndyJS

"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.

Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."

http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

http://davidlearmount.com/2015/10/24/clutha-questions/

That's a reasonable outline of the report (I'm reading it through again but it's 200 pages of dry analysis and all the damn sport keeps getting in the way!). As most commentators have said it leaves more questions than answers.

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

Backed Perez and Hulkenberg to be top 6 at just over evens with Betfair.

Bet works in rain or dry, but as dry's forecast they should be able to pass the Red Bulls early on, at the straights. Both skilled drivers and starting far up the grid diminishes the chances of lap 1 collateral damage.

I'll put the pre-race piece up shortly. [NB Post-race will go up tomorrow, most likely].

Morris_Dancer

Here's the pre-race piece:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/us-pre-race.html

tlg86

I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!

Morris_Dancer

Right, I am off the watch the rugby. Then have tea. Then watch the F1.

HYUFD

Trump twists the knife “I did talk about Jeb because I thought Jeb was going to be the front-runner,” Trump told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “Obviously, he’s no longer the front-runner. I probably won’t talk about him so much anymore."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jeb-bush-jabs_562cde8ee4b0aac0b8fd2898

Speedy

AndyJS said:

"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.

Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."

http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off

I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.

Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.

AndyJS

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

Beverley_C

Morris_Dancer said:

Mrs C, don't blame us for your wine habit

Hic!

I have moved on to Sunday dinner prep. Pork and apple....

HYUFD

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

Speedy

tlg86 said:

I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!

That's true.

Though a better education has shown that it reduces and breaks down old stereotypes and prejudgments by creating new ones.
I think university graduates are a reflection of social conditions in their classes, most of them are multicultural with many foreigners and have lots of travel in foreign countries, plus on matters of sex they are always more open, also their education gives them a sense of privilege of opinion over others hence their strong mindedness of excluding others with different thinking.
In conclusion, it's a very authoritarian liberal environment.

It's a change since the past when universities where festered with communism, though they are still the worlds trouble makers like they are always through history.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

JEO

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

You mean the difference is clear: we can't read a trend into it.

Sure, there's a difference, but that difference is small compared to his support vis-a-vis other candidates. It's like people saying that UKIP does poorly in London, when they are actually the third most supported party there. People like to look into minor data variances to create stereotypes.

AndyJS

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

I'd agree with that. I'd also suggest you'd get a much larger difference if you broke down where those graduates lived and what they did for a living.

A graduate banker who's a homeowner and commutes daily from Kent is likely to have different politics from one working in new media, or for a major NGO, and houseshares in Hackney.

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national average

JEO

Speedy said:

tlg86 said:

I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!

That's true.

Though a better education has shown that it reduces and breaks down old stereotypes and prejudgments by creating new ones.
I think university graduates are a reflection of social conditions in their classes, most of them are multicultural with many foreigners and have lots of travel in foreign countries, plus on matters of sex they are always more open, also their education gives them a sense of privilege of opinion over others hence their strong mindedness of excluding others with different thinking.
In conclusion, it's a very authoritarian liberal environment.

It's a change since the past when universities where festered with communism, though they are still the worlds trouble makers like they are always through history.

In my experience, graduate professionals can be just as prejudiced in their beliefs as any other group. It's just a different set of prejudices: If something is seen as 'open-minded', 'international' or 'modern' then young graduates tend to support it, even if they have very little knowledge of the issue.

MikeSmithson

tlg86 said:

I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!

Thankfully most people out there are not like PBers

JEO

HYUFD said:

Trump twists the knife “I did talk about Jeb because I thought Jeb was going to be the front-runner,” Trump told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “Obviously, he’s no longer the front-runner. I probably won’t talk about him so much anymore."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jeb-bush-jabs_562cde8ee4b0aac0b8fd2898

Trump needs to concentrate his fire on Rubio. For all Trump's flaws, he does seem to be excellent at trolling other candidates.

Speedy

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

You mean the difference is clear: we can't read a trend into it.

Sure, there's a difference, but that difference is small compared to his support vis-a-vis other candidates. It's like people saying that UKIP does poorly in London, when they are actually the third most supported party there. People like to look into minor data variances to create stereotypes.

The right expression should be "it's more/less likely to support candidate X if you are of background Y", for Trump it's 25% less likely to support if you are a university graduate but 15% more likely to support him if you are not a graduate.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national average

I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.

Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.

Casino_Royale

JEO said:

Speedy said:

tlg86 said:

I'm a 28 year old grad and I voted Ukip...but then I am posting on PB so probably not a good example!

That's true.

Though a better education has shown that it reduces and breaks down old stereotypes and prejudgments by creating new ones.
I think university graduates are a reflection of social conditions in their classes, most of them are multicultural with many foreigners and have lots of travel in foreign countries, plus on matters of sex they are always more open, also their education gives them a sense of privilege of opinion over others hence their strong mindedness of excluding others with different thinking.
In conclusion, it's a very authoritarian liberal environment.

It's a change since the past when universities where festered with communism, though they are still the worlds trouble makers like they are always through history.

In my experience, graduate professionals can be just as prejudiced in their beliefs as any other group. It's just a different set of prejudices: If something is seen as 'open-minded', 'international' or 'modern' then young graduates tend to support it, even if they have very little knowledge of the issue.

Oh, absolutely.

HYUFD

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.

I don't think so, if anything younger graduates polled are more economically conservative than older graduates, even if more socially liberal. Remember only 10% or so of older people will be graduates compared to at least 35-40% of the young.

It is really UKIP who do worst amongst graduates, they get their lowest score with them, doing 14% worse than those with only GCSEs or lower, by contrast the Tories did only 3% worse with graduates than those with only GCSEs or lower. The LDs did best with graduates, doing 6% better than those with only GCSEs or lower, even better than the Greens who did 4% better. Labour did slightly better, getting a 3% higher voteshare with graduates than those with GCSEs or lower. The SNP did better with those with just A Levels than either with graduates or those with just GCSEs or below
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

Sean_F

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.

A lot of older professional people will also not have gone to university, but rather qualified while they were working. I could see that route becoming a lot more popular again, with people who don't want to pay student fees.

AnneJGP

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.

In the UK, there is also the generation gap of younger people being far more likely to attend university than older people.

The thread header premise is interesting to play with but, as others have said, the numbers don't seem all that different, really.

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

I'd agree with that. I'd also suggest you'd get a much larger difference if you broke down where those graduates lived and what they did for a living.

A graduate banker who's a homeowner and commutes daily from Kent is likely to have different politics from one working in new media, or for a major NGO, and houseshares in Hackney.

Agree entirely, graduates who vote in the private sector are more likely to vote Tory, those who work in the public sector to vote Labour for example

HYUFD

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Trump twists the knife “I did talk about Jeb because I thought Jeb was going to be the front-runner,” Trump told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “Obviously, he’s no longer the front-runner. I probably won’t talk about him so much anymore."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jeb-bush-jabs_562cde8ee4b0aac0b8fd2898

Trump needs to concentrate his fire on Rubio. For all Trump's flaws, he does seem to be excellent at trolling other candidates.

Indeed but he has already called Rubio 'a perfect little puppet for donors'
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/256737-trump-rubio-a-perfect-little-puppet

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national average

I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.

Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.

Maybe, but the fact that graduates are more likely to vote than non-graduates will help In

Speedy

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national average

I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.

Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.

That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?
Going through the opinion polls the only thing I found about the likelihood to vote is the ICM enthusiasm for the referendum, which is twice as much for those who want to leave than for those who want to remain.

SandyRentool

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

Speedy

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

I think it's about a preference with order when it comes to that profession.

HYUFD

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

There's a differential, but it's hardly chalk and cheese.

I'm a graduate and a professional who works in London. I share the same concerns about immigration, tiptoeing around free speech and identity politics. There are several other friends of mine of a similar background who share these concerns.

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national average

I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.

Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.

That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?
Going through the opinion polls the only thing I found about the likelihood to vote is the ICM enthusiasm for the referendum, which is twice as much for those who want to leave than for those who want to remain.

Passionate Outers are at most 1/3 of the electorate, graduates vote more often than non-graduates and are more likely to back In

HYUFD

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national average

I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.

Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.

That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?
Going through the opinion polls the only thing I found about the likelihood to vote is the ICM enthusiasm for the referendum, which is twice as much for those who want to leave than for those who want to remain.

Passionate Outers are at most 1/3 of the electorate, graduates vote more often than non-graduates and are more likely to back In

That didn't help Labour though in the GE.
I think the closest comparison will be not the GE but somewhere between the AV referendum and the scottish referendum.
Because in terms of importance the EU referendum is more important than the AV one but less important than the scottish one and nowhere close enough to a GE.

HYUFD

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

JEO said:

HYUFD said:

Agree entirely, Trump is basically the US Farage and both appeal to the same types of voters ie skilled working class and lower middle class white men, non graduates concerned about immigration and sceptical of government whether from Washington, Westminster or Brussels

I think this is a bit silly. There are differentials, sure, but he performs between the low 20s and low 30s with virtually all groups. Not much in it.

He is 5% above his national average with non graduates, 6% below with non graduates, 4% above with men, 4% below with women, 4% above with Tea Party backers, the trend is clear

Are we in a minority amongst our pool of fellow graduates and friends? Absolutely. But we are a resolute one.

Yes, of course there are exceptions to every rule, eg there are some investment bankers who will vote Labour even when led by Corbyn and some sociology lecturers who vote Tory, I was looking at the average

I'm saying it's more than an exception, in my group of professional friends (within that demographic) probably between 25%-35% admit to sharing similar views to me.

There's a difference between minority and negligiblity.

In EU ref it will probably be between 50/55% In 45/50% Out, so if only 25-35% of your group of professional friends back Out that is still well below the national average

I don't disagree with you. All I would say is that almost all of us will vote.

Plenty of the remainder of my peer group who hold more mainstream 'graduate' views will limit their involvement to a like or retweeting on social media.

That's another thing, what if the passionate Outers vote but the meh Inners don't bother much?

Passionate Outers are at most 1/3 of the electorate, graduates vote more often than non-graduates and are more likely to back In

That didn't help Labour though in the GE.
I think the closest comparison will be not the GE but somewhere between the AV referendum and the scottish referendum.
Because in terms of importance the EU referendum is more important than the AV one but less important than the scottish one and nowhere close enough to a GE.

As I have already pointed out Tories won graduates in May and UKIP did worst with them.

tlg86

Would it have been an abuse of power for Theresa May to ban Diego Maradona from the country?

Casino_Royale

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

If the left is going to mainly rely on graduates in the future it's bad news from their point of view because they tend to be concentrated in a few metropolitan areas which obviously doesn't work out too well under a FPTP system. Most seats in those areas are already safely in the Labour column.

It is really postgraduates who consistently vote left. For example, George W Bush won 52% of graduates in 2004 to Kerry's 46% but lost postgraduates by 44% to Kerry's 54%, while the Tories led Labour amongst graduates 35% to 34% in May, even if that margin was narrower than the nation as a whole

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

Interesting figures although I suspect there may be a significant generation gap with younger graduates being a lot more likely to vote Labour or Democrat. Graduates over 55 are probably a lot more conservative, maybe even more conservative than the average voter. That's why Edgbaston used to be a safe Conservative seat and Nuneaton a safe Labour one a few decades ago.

I find Nuneaton fascinating. This year, 60% voted Conservative or UKIP, and less than 40% Labour/LD/Green.

In 1997, 65% voted Labour or LD and under 32% voted Conservative or UKIP.

Talk about a turnaround.

Casino_Royale

By contrast the Conservative vote in Edgebaston has been remarkably steady at 36-39% since 1997.

I think it's hard to argue that it'd still be Labour now with anyone other than Gisela Stuart as the candidate.

Casino_Royale

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

Strong female / male split in that profession (my profession) in my experience.

HYUFD

So an Australia v New Zealand final in the Rugby World Cup, the same as the Cricket World Cup final in March

jayfdee

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

HYUFD

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

So an Australia v New Zealand final in the Rugby World Cup, the same as the Cricket World Cup final in March

It's a bit boring really.

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

So an Australia v New Zealand final in the Rugby World Cup, the same as the Cricket World Cup final in March

It's a bit boring really.

Although interestingly the All Blacks have never faced the Aussies in a Rugby World Cup final as yet, so it does at least have that novelty value

RobD

Joyous news for our turnip farmers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html

malcolmg

RobD said:

Joyous news for our turnip farmers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html

Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.

jayfdee

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Joyous news for our turnip farmers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html

Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.

Heh, I knew this would summon you

volcanopete

Difficult to know what to make of this Trump info without the key feature of race.Why the Democrats are such a good bet at 4-5,is largely demographic.My guess is that most of these Trumpers will be white and their numbers are shrinking short and long-term-there are not enough of them to beat the Democrats.The other 2 reasons are climate change policy where polls show the Koch funded deniers have lost there argument and drug policy-many of those polled might just change their mind when they find out if they vote Trump or Rubio,their weed is going to land them in gaol.Heroin now accounts for more deaths than road accidents in parts of the US.Neither Trump or the GOP have any other answers other than prison and the continuation of the prison-industrial complex.

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Joyous news for our turnip farmers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html

Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.

Heh, I knew this would summon you

I am ever present

DecrepitJohnL

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

We had a thread header last week showing voting patterns by newspaper, with Labour doing surprisingly well amongst FT readers, presumably CEOs and bankers.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/23/how-readers-of-the-different-national-papers-voted-at-ge2015/

RobD

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Joyous news for our turnip farmers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html

Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.

Heh, I knew this would summon you

I am ever present

Ever vigilant, for you never know when a turnip may strike.

TCPoliticalBetting

Corbyn team hold out a branch of peace?

Andrew Fisher @AndrewFisher79
Dear @SimonDanczuk MP, if you're going to write right-wing propaganda for The Scum, fuck off and join the Tories (cc @UKLabour)
Retweeted by Sam Coates Times

blackburn63

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

HYUFD

volcanopete said:

Difficult to know what to make of this Trump info without the key feature of race.Why the Democrats are such a good bet at 4-5,is largely demographic.My guess is that most of these Trumpers will be white and their numbers are shrinking short and long-term-there are not enough of them to beat the Democrats.The other 2 reasons are climate change policy where polls show the Koch funded deniers have lost there argument and drug policy-many of those polled might just change their mind when they find out if they vote Trump or Rubio,their weed is going to land them in gaol.Heroin now accounts for more deaths than road accidents in parts of the US.Neither Trump or the GOP have any other answers other than prison and the continuation of the prison-industrial complex.

Indeed and Canada is now set to legalise marijuana with Trudeau now PM

RobD

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Corbyn team hold out a branch of peace?

Andrew Fisher @AndrewFisher79
Dear @SimonDanczuk MP, if you're going to write right-wing propaganda for The Scum, fuck off and join the Tories (cc @UKLabour)
Retweeted by Sam Coates Times

I'm running desperately low on popcorn here!

HYUFD

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.

Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing then

HYUFD

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

We had a thread header last week showing voting patterns by newspaper, with Labour doing surprisingly well amongst FT readers, presumably CEOs and bankers.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/23/how-readers-of-the-different-national-papers-voted-at-ge2015/

I saw that but with FT readers the Tories were on over 40% ie above what they got nationally, it is just more FT readers voted Labour or LD than UKIP, hardly surprising really as the CBI is centre right but pro EU

AndyJS

What time is the Polish election exit poll published?

malcolmg

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

Joyous news for our turnip farmers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/11953997/Halloween-pumpkin-shortage-leaves-ghouls-turning-to-the-turnip.html

Its a trend Rob, the future is turnip, it started here on pb.

Heh, I knew this would summon you

I am ever present

Ever vigilant, for you never know when a turnip may strike.

Scott is on every day so it is consistent, and then there are the fruitbats who make me despair but the rest make up for the dross.

rcs1000

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

UKIP attracts all sorts.

For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.

But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.

And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.

Philip_Thompson

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.

Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."

http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off

I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.

Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.

Boundary changes happen at the next General Election always.

If there is a by-election then the by-election must occur under old boundaries. Otherwise you could end up with the situation where someone has 2 MPs representing them ... and far worse you could end up with the situation where someone has nobody at all representing them.

Philip_Thompson

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.

The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.

blackburn63

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

UKIP attracts all sorts.

For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.

But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.

And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.

I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.

Speedy

Philip_Thompson said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.

Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."

http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off

I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.

Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.

Boundary changes happen at the next General Election always.

If there is a by-election then the by-election must occur under old boundaries. Otherwise you could end up with the situation where someone has 2 MPs representing them ... and far worse you could end up with the situation where someone has nobody at all representing them.

OK then.
So if Rochdale is abolished, Danzcuk will cause a by-election, in case he is rejected from standing in other seats, some months before the GE in a seat that won't exist after a few months.
It won't be very interesting to see a by-election in a seat just before a GE that won't be fought in a GE simply because it will not exist, but everyone would be glad to get rid of Danzcuk a few months early.

rcs1000

blackburn63 said:

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

UKIP attracts all sorts.

For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.

But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.

And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.

I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.

The only (serious) political party which had a policy of opposing gay marriage was UKIP.

Freggles

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.

Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing then

Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.

Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).

At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.

All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.

blackburn63

Philip_Thompson said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.

The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.

I mention patronising and you make my point nicely. Vanity always comes before a fall.

When I left school very few went to uni, those that did almost without exception studied a worthwhile subject and went on to successful careers, now it seems that to tens of thousands every year uni is the end not the means.

TOPPING

so quite a momentous day for Lab.

From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.

I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.

Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.

blackburn63

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

UKIP attracts all sorts.

For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.

But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.

And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.

I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.

The only (serious) political party which had a policy of opposing gay marriage was UKIP.

I'm really not sure of your point, I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. I couldn't care less who marries who as long as it's consensual.

Scrapheap_as_was

What an unexpected day.... england to win tomorrow then....

Speedy

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

UKIP attracts all sorts.

For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.

But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.

And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.

I'm not sure of the relevance of gay marriage but no matter, I know hundreds of ukip voters, I've never heard one of them be disparaging towards gay marriage. My Conservative MP is vehemently opposed to it and voted accordingly.

The only (serious) political party which had a policy of opposing gay marriage was UKIP.

It was one of the reasons of why UKIP suddenly appeared on radar in 2012.
The others were immigration and general dissatisfaction with the LD.

However UKIP can never move upwards if it doesn't expand it's policy ranges, simply adding some social policies like immigration and gay marriage expanded them from 3% to 13%, but they need 15% to start to gain seats.

Scrapheap_as_was

RobD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Corbyn team hold out a branch of peace?

Andrew Fisher @AndrewFisher79
Dear @SimonDanczuk MP, if you're going to write right-wing propaganda for The Scum, fuck off and join the Tories (cc @UKLabour)
Retweeted by Sam Coates Times

I'm running desperately low on popcorn here!

How classy by team JC. new politics is a pleasure

Sean_F

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

Well, I'm a post-graduate, who's a member of UKIP. Given that 80% of university staff vote Labour, Green, or SNP, it's no surprise there's a high degree of left-wing groupthink among recent graduates.

Philip_Thompson

Speedy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

"A veteran Labour MP has said any attempt to "pick off" Labour MPs as part of a "purge" of those who don't agree with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership will trigger a series of by-elections across the country.

Frank Field told Sky News' Murnaghan programme he and a "huge number" of his party colleagues stand ready to campaign for anyone ousted from their seat."

http://news.sky.com/story/1575872/call-for-by-elections-if-labour-mps-picked-off

I think the de-selections will happen with the reduced seat numbers and boundary changes, it's inevitable that the likes of Danzcuk will be out if Rochdale is affected.

Though no one knows when the boundary changes will be adopted, and I don't know how long the new selections process will take for the old MP's to be thrown out from the moment the seats and boundaries change, and also if the MP resigns after the new boundaries have been adopted will the by-election use the old ones even if the seat is abolished.

Boundary changes happen at the next General Election always.

If there is a by-election then the by-election must occur under old boundaries. Otherwise you could end up with the situation where someone has 2 MPs representing them ... and far worse you could end up with the situation where someone has nobody at all representing them.

OK then.
So if Rochdale is abolished, Danzcuk will cause a by-election, in case he is rejected from standing in other seats, some months before the GE in a seat that won't exist after a few months.
It won't be very interesting to see a by-election in a seat just before a GE that won't be fought in a GE simply because it will not exist, but everyone would be glad to get rid of Danzcuk a few months early.

All MPs cease to exist at a General Election by definition. Whether it is more interesting to fight an election under the new or the old boundaries isn't relevant, what is relevant is that the constituents of the old boundaries are without representation and need a new MP electing.

HYUFD

Freggles said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.

Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing then

Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.

Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).

At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.

All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.

Sometimes one may lead to the other but that does not deny the general point that arts/humanities/politics and sociology graduates who work in the public sector are more likely to vote for centre left parties and STEM and particularly economics and business graduates who work in the private sector to vote for centre right parties

Philip_Thompson

blackburn63 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.

The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.

I mention patronising and you make my point nicely. Vanity always comes before a fall.

When I left school very few went to uni, those that did almost without exception studied a worthwhile subject and went on to successful careers, now it seems that to tens of thousands every year uni is the end not the means.

I never said that non-graduate = thick, not did the OP. I just said you were protesting too much. In fact if you press Ctrl+F and search for the word thick (or thickos) on this entire page you were the only person to have used the word. So its not vanity, you read that into it yourself and what you are doing now is called transference.

TOPPING

Freggles said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.

Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing then

Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.

Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).

At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.

All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.

Do you think the person who sold you the computer of smartphone that you are using to post on PB agonises over selling people stuff they don't need?

blackburn63

Philip_Thompson said:

blackburn63 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

No that is what you read into it, strike too close to the bone did it? Methinks you doth protest too much.

The fact is there is a difference and to bet successfully means to understand differences. To drop all discussions because someone might be offended by inference is an utterly absurd position to take.

I mention patronising and you make my point nicely. Vanity always comes before a fall.

When I left school very few went to uni, those that did almost without exception studied a worthwhile subject and went on to successful careers, now it seems that to tens of thousands every year uni is the end not the means.

I never said that non-graduate = thick, not did the OP. I just said you were protesting too much. In fact if you press Ctrl+F and search for the word thick (or thickos) on this entire page you were the only person to have used the word. So its not vanity, you read that into it yourself and what you are doing now is called transference.

Sometimes when discussing football a Man Utd fan will say: well you support Bournemouth, what do you know about football?

What happens on here is that conservatives appoint themselves experts based on the fact the party they vote for won a general election, they are quick to patronise and abuse supporters of other parties purely because their team won.

Of course that doesn't apply to all, some are very polite and reasonable, it tends to be the young and naive who have yet to realise that in politics never lasts for long and hubris gets the better of everybody.

William_H

TOPPING said:

so quite a momentous day for Lab.

From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.

I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.

Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.

Meh, if the press had paid as much attention to Corbyn as they do to Danczuc et al then Labour would have spent the whole of the Blair government in "chaos".

There is in fact serious trouble in the parliamentary party, but it's not about this tiny band of malcontents doing the media rounds.

Freggles

TOPPING said:

Freggles said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.

Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing then

Being on the left-of-centre and believing strongly in honesty, I avoided a commercial career in favour of public service for the basic reason that I just don't want to have to sell people stuff they don't need, or face pressure to cheat or bend the rules to get ahead.

Now that I'm there I understand that those things still exist in the public sector, but I still like having a job with a moral purpose (NHS).

At some point it would be fun to start my own business, but not sure if I have the requisite skills.

All that to say, sometimes your philosophy dictates your career choices rather than vice versa.

Do you think the person who sold you the computer of smartphone that you are using to post on PB agonises over selling people stuff they don't need?

Oh, selling things isn't immoral most of the time. But it's for other people.

I think I also perceived that there would be more toxic office politics and having to 'sell yourself' to go further in the private sector... again, I think an oversimplified view of the world.

jayfdee

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

jayfdee said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

The clear majority of engineering graduates I have worked with have been right of centre. Some have been very right wing. I didn't consider that when I chose my profession.

In order of preference from leftwing to rightwing it probably goes something like

Sociology Art Drama English Education History Politics Languages Law Biology Medicine IT Maths Physics Chemistry Engineering Business Studies Economics

Yep that fits me.

Indeed and it links to jobs too eg social workers and actors are far more likely to be leftwing than CEOs and bankers

Yes agree, but I think an overwhelming factor is parental influence and upbringing. Actually my parents were both Teachers,but I am an Engineer who ran his own business,and employed 100 plus people,and am on the right.

Yes so it is your occupation which trumps upbringing then

No ,Teachers when I were a lad, were very definitely Right wing and considered professionals.
I had little choice,my upbringing was pre determined, the Grammar school I attended had only one way out, that was University.
The careers advisory tutor, was staggered when I chose Engineering,we were supposed to choose Priesthood, and second best Religious studies Teacher.
Engineering taught a logical discipline, employment and running a business, finished my training,and that is how I became moderately right wing.

Speedy

TOPPING said:

so quite a momentous day for Lab.

From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.

I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.

Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.

It depends on who they vote for, the MP or the party.
I'm willing to bet that mostly people vote for the party although MP's can have large personal votes it's not enough to overcome the party vote.

Lets say that for instance Liz Kendall needs a by-election, she is:
a.Not very popular with Labour voters.
b.Popular among Tory voters.

So she would need a minimum of 10% of the electorate to be her own personal vote assuming a full commitment by the Tory party to support her and without any Tory leaks to UKIP if the Tory-Kendall candidacy becomes unappealing to some Tories.
Similarly Danzcuk will need an even larger minimum personal vote (14%) to at least cost Labour the seat.

foxinsoxuk

rcs1000 said:

blackburn63 said:

The underlying theme of the header is only thickos vote ukip, it's patronising bordering on offensive. The reality is that as you get older and have experienced life you see things in a different way from the ideology of your teens.

UKIP attracts realists who appreciate that not all change is for the best.

UKIP attracts all sorts.

For me, what makes it unattractive is not its Euroscepticism, but its social conservatism. UKIP used to be a libertarian party. Douglas Carswell is a libertarian, and were I in Clacton, I think I'd probably vote for him.

But UKIP is the party that opposed gay marriage. And not because of any real ideological reason, but because they wanted to be the repository for those who dislike social change.

And for that reason, while I might vote for them if I liked the local candidate (were it Douglas Carswell or Richard Tyndall), I could never support them.

Few voters support a party following an actuarial style analysis of policies. NickP has expressed the view that affinities are more value and impression based, and I am with him on this. Grads are different in their experience of the world, so it is not surprising that their values and responses are different to non grads.

The implications for the EUref are that voters are going to be swayed by similar factors. The winning side is going to be the one that has the meme that appeals to the majority.

TOPPING

William_H said:

TOPPING said:

so quite a momentous day for Lab.

From the sublime (Frank) saying he will form a Lab MP Citizens' Army to defend un-Jezza MPs, to Simon D doing his thing.

I wonder whether the public is actually noticing any of this. At some point surely they will see in front of them the chaos. I mean it hardly requires too incisive analysis or priveleged information to work out what's happening. It is happening in broad daylight for all to see.

Or does the public not particularly care as long as they have someone left-ish to put a tick against or tell polls they are fans of.

Meh, if the press had paid as much attention to Corbyn as they do to Danczuc et al then Labour would have spent the whole of the Blair government in "chaos".

There is in fact serious trouble in the parliamentary party, but it's not about this tiny band of malcontents doing the media rounds.

oh. What with the silence I thought I had won PB.

Anyway, my point was that many people may have known, suspected or guessed that there was the mother of all internecine battles going on within Lab and between Blair/Brown.

But in public it was all smiles and business as usual.

You had to be relatively geeky or politico-y to work it out. But this is front and centre all over the papers, radio, you name it.

Hence my question - which perhaps you have answered. The public is not interested in politics to a hitherto (to me) unthought of degree.