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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Palmer on why we shouldn’t pay too much attention to EU referendum polls
Membership of the EU is so central to many aspects of our political debate that almost everyone in politics has a strong view about it. We project that onto the electorate at large, and then puzzle over the small number of people who actually mention it as an issue that they worry about. Is it because the question is badly put, or because they’re concealing their strong feelings?
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In terms of the inconsistencies described, I think the main feature is the public are just uninformed, and more so than in other EU countries. This has been the effect of the major parties wanting to be in the EU, but knowing the public are eurosceptic, so they simply avoid talking about the issue. When people do point out the very real effects it has, they are often accused of "banging on" about it. The end result is not much public debate, and a poorly informed electorate. This is why I would like to see a good year or so between the renegotiation results and the referendum so people can really understand the arguments and the fact base. The Scottish referendum really improved political consciousness in Scotland, and I'd like to see a similar thing here.
Anyway, with a couple of months to go, they will see at some event Cameron , Blair, Brown and Major will be standing next to each other and will ask the people to stay IN and that will be that.
In 1975, when Labour was the anti-Europe party, it was put about as "Harold knows best".
Whether they will EVER start caring, before the Referendum happens, is an open question.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-accused-of-doing-chinas-bidding-after-police-raid-home-of-tiananmen-square-survivor-over-peaceful-a6704911.html
I understand we need to hold our noses and do business with China, but we should never forget that we are on the side of the democratic activists.
https://twitter.com/consforbritain/status/654267029873147904
"DON'T PAY ATTENTIION TO OPINION POLLS"
It's reminds me a little bit of 2010, only where The Labour Party, the Greens, and the LibDems got together to try and make "Jamaica"-type coalition.
Personal view: the PS - which thought it was going to win the election until a few weeks ago - ends up in a highly unstable coalition with the radical left.
Which lasts perhaps a month or two. Either the PS then fragments, with a minority of deputies supporting Forward Portugal. Or we see new elections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Jamaica
Mildly surprised practice went ahead. Both Ferraris have 10 place grid penalties due to new engines, which means the front row would be Hamilton-Hulkenberg if the P3 times are used [should qualifying be cancelled].
I concur that most voters aren't paying attention, and those that are likely have a pretty settled view already.
Just back from a week in Europe's playground where British, German, Italian and French can bond over the breakfast buffet and enjoy the Spanish sunshine. Europe en fete as it were - plenty of coverage about events in Portugal and in Spain Podemos getting plenty of media along with the Citizens' party.
Interesting to note the changing linguistic order in Mallorca - it's German first, then British with Russian coming a close third. Menus now have Russian sections after the Spanish, German and English.
With profuse apologies to Nick (excellent piece by the way), something I noticed while driving round was a town called Felanitx and I began to muse on all the places I could think of ENDING in "X" - Appomatox being an obvious example but I started to struggle after that.
So, my alternative to yet another debate on the EU - can anyone think of places ending in "X" ? I exclude anything with "Cross" by the way as that's just short-hand.
Edit: and Herstmoncux
In France, Bordeaux, and I think there're several others as well.
Possibly so. It's going to be a strange campaign. As EU-enthusiast I already feel defeated. I'm going to be asked to choose between leaving immediately or staying in under more EU-sceptic conditions. There'll not be anything on the ballot paper to enthuse me. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that I make wake on on the day of the referendum and think, "Sod it, the EU is better off without us."
I'm trolling here, not least as Labour's record wasn't great either, but it's worth all of us keeping in mind that when in power most leaders tend to think that dissidents are a nuisance. As an MP I used to pay a visit each year to the local Amnesty branch, who would always grill me for two hours about what we were doing and not doing, and I still support them, even when I think they're worrying about some undesirable character - it's a bit of nuisance that people in politics need.
Sussex is essentially "South Saxon".
Middlesex is "Middle Saxon".
Essex is "East Saxon".
Wessex is "West Saxon".
It's Herstmonceux https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herstmonceux#History
Please resume the endless argument on the benefits or otherwise of our continued membership of the European Union.
Thanks to john Liburne for his quick response to my P45 question on previous thread. Appreciated.
Mr. D, but can you name the Gallic leader whose name ended in X (not Vercingetorix) against whom Caesar fought and won?
If we vote Out (and actually leave...) it might. Or if we vote Out, get some concessions, and are betrayed to stay in, it might.
But, as I think In will win, that'll be seen as a green light from the most sceptical of nations for lots more lovely, demented integration.
Besides, the EU has an appalling habit of ignoring referendum results or asking the question repeatedly until the 'right' answer is given.
GOP
Trump: 26.9%
Carson: 21.8%
Kasich: 12.5%
Bush: 5.6%
Fiorina: 5.6%
Cruz: 3.6%
Paul: 3.3%
Huckabee: 2.3%
Christie: 2.1%
Pataki: 1.4%
Rubio: 1.4%
Santorum: 1%
Graham: 0.7%
Gilmore: 0.4%
Jindal: 0.2%
DEMS
Clinton: 53.8%
Sanders: 22.7%
Webb: 1.1%
Chafee: 0.9%
O’Malley: 0.6%
General Election
Carson: 35.2
Clinton: 44.7 (+9.5)
Trump: 34.8
Clinton: 45.9 (+11.1)
Fiorina: 30.3
Clinton: 44.9 (+14.6)
Bush: 30.5
Clinton: 47 (+16.5)
http://www.bgsu.edu/content/dam/BGSU/news/2015/10/BGSUPollFindings_Day1.pdf
Asterix
This is getting silly.
Following on from a comment below, are things in Portugal really as portrayed by the Telegraph with a left wing majority being refused the right to rule because they are Eurosceptic? If so it is a complete scandal but I would like to know how much of a spin the Telegraph has put on things.
(Sussex technically does have a ridge walk I've done; it's just known as the South Downs Way)
Ah, I apologise profusely for not being able to spell Herstmonahcuxux.
Quite bold of you to use the 'free money' term. Often turns out not to be.
1.08 for an 8% return over 18 months is not great. I can get annualised 5% return with little risk to capital and am able to invest a much higher amount than the couple of hundred quid knocking about on the Betfair market.
(Not the band; something's gone wrong if the Styx are the last thing you see.)
"The leftwing parties, the Socialist Party, CDU, and Left Bloc, argued that as they were willing to form a coalition which would have a majority, they ought to be invited to form the government; Portugal Ahead, as the largest single party, argued that they should be invited to form the government. After three weeks of uncertainty, the President invited Coelho to form a minority government."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Portugal
Official 30 minute delay to qualifying, possibly a window around then to get in the qualy session before the rain returns.
F1 qualifying pushed back to 7.30pm.
I rather hope they cancel qualifying. It may give us an amusing grid, but we'd already have that with the P3 times.
*+17 myth points to anyone who gets that.
Mr. Tyndall, no idea.
Did you mention Sfax, near a certain Phoenician-descended settlement in North Africa?
< /PendantOff>
I don't think it is as scandalous as the Telegraph are making out, at least from my understanding.
For example. Deva Victrix (Chester)
Have a feeling there's a far more famous one, but maybe I'm mistaken. Couldn't find it when I looked, and found the above instead.
However, in this case Forward Portugal reckons it won't get voted down, because there are a number of PS deputies who are in open revolt at the possibility of a coalition with the more left wing elements. It only requires about 6-9 PS deputies to vote with the government, or (more likely) about half a dozen to abstain.
I rather suspect that this is being caused by flailing around in senior police management. After their "war with the Tory party" collapsed they seem to have completely unglued - alternately trying to kiss arse and scream about how unloved they are.
Incidentally, the Gaul was Ambiorix. As well as the more famous Vercingetorix, he and the Germanian Ariovistus were probably Caesar's principle opponents in Gaul.
Of course, saying Caesar conquered Gaul is a slight exaggeration, as Gallia Narbonensis was founded decades before he turned up.
Whilst the length is large some snakes (I'd guess the reticulated python) today are close to that size, but a snake that weighs a ton would be a bugger to fight.
I used the storm eagle (I think, it was years ago I did the work, and upon checking it was Haast's Eagle) as the basis for the black eagle, which plays a small role in one book of mine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haast's_eagle
There are times when truth is stranger than fiction. For example, it's possible for a man to be run through with a sword (more easily a rapier than a broadsword, for obvious reasons) and survive. But if you put that in a book it'd seem unrealistic.
I think it was Twain that said fiction was more realistic than life, because fiction has to make sense
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sfax
The end was also moved a couple of decades ago to Winchester in Hampshire from somewhere further east. I can't remember where the old western end was, but I think it was outside Hampshire.
As an aside, they should just join the Clarendon Way on and extend it west to Salisbury.
[On that note, I should post a piece about some vicious women from a few thousand years this weekend].
Edited extra bit: Mr. Pubgoer, we are glad you survived
Great Irish actor.
I bet that's fascinated everyone.
RIP.
It's part of a more general issue all over Europe including Britain - how does the moderate left feel about increased support for the more radical left? Do they fight them or work with them? In countries with PR, this is expressed in the form of rival parties to the left, which makes it even harder to love each other after fighting an election than the evidently limited mutual affection felt by Simon Danczuk and Diane Abbott in Britain. And of course we see the same sort of splintering on the right, as evidenced by the head-scratching by centre-right parties over alliances with the Danish People's Party ("oh, all right then") or the Sweden Democrats ("no way").