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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to analysis
The US presidential election is the biggest single political betting event, which is excellent news for serious analysts and players because it probably means that there’s a lot of amateur, uninformed money to be matched against. Not every election will produce a 50/1 winner but there’s nearly always value to be found for the astute. How? Here are some tips:
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Having said all that, we also tend to agree that a 3-school model (first, middle and high) is best of all, since there is no need to select until 14 years of age, but the three-school model has been all but abandoned in the UK for reasons of *cost* and *uniformity*!
Clinton is hammering the House Benghazi investigation, which is irrelevant at this point to her email problem. Huma Abedin testified in secret before the committee today and Clinton will testify in public on Thursday. It is incredible but true that 7 previous Benghazi investigations failed to uncover her personal email server.
The NY Times says the FBI is furious at POTUS comments on 60 Minutes on Sunday that there is no national security issue with Clinton's private email server. They think Obama has pre-judged their investigation, which is ongoing and widening.
You don't want the FBI to be annoyed with you - you really don't.
It looks like The Feds are the one thing that can take her out, either before or after she gets the nomination - more likely before if they decide to indict.
The only real option is to tune in to what US outlets are saying (at which point, the usual rules apply: don’t be too reliant on any single source etc.).
You are absolutely right - you need to follow US press coverage of the election, to understand the deeper currents of what is going on, and not just US polls. British media coverage of the US election is not very good and is viewed through a UK centric prism.
I have been saying here for months that Clinton's greatest threat was her server and the FBI's investigation, and nobody believed me because her figures were good. It was was only when someone on PB - it might have been you - went over here and found just how much potential trouble she is facing that people on here started noticing.
The US press had been all over it since March. Clinton, as always, claims it's a vast right wing conspiracy, but the NY Times and the Washington Post took the lead.
This list of ten things is just a load of fluff and stuffing and kerfuffle and waffle. It doesn't matter what the opinion polls say, or what happens in the caucuses or primaries or conventions. It doesn't matter who is selected by either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party or the Green Party or the Trump Party.
The only thing which matters is the Presidential Election itself, and when that happens in December 2016, the members of the Electoral College will vote unanimously for Roberta McCain.
someone mentioned the other day that Back to the Future II featured McFly and Brown time travelling to Oct 21, 2015.
The movie also predicted that The Cubs would win the 2015 World Series against Miami, ( the Cubs have not won it in 107 years), and by implication there would be an MLB team in Miami, which there is today but wasn't when the movie was made.
Getting back to reality - the Chicago Cubs are currently favorites to win the 2015 World Series. Honest injun. Cross my heart and hope to die, it is completely true.
Possibly not entirely coincidentally, the Back to The Future 30th anniversary trilogy comes out Tuesday, and Back the the Future II returns to theaters for 1 day on Wednesday to mark the 21st October date.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13902322/back-future-screenwriter-bob-gale-discusses-prediction-cubs-2015-world-series-champions
But I for one would say this is a very good summary.
Point one is particularly important.
A fantastic game of cricket going on at the moment in Abu Dhabi. Proper cricket, not any of that short attention-span nonsense.
Corbyn to become Vice President of CND.
Not sure Trump has seen the Producers - but he should remember two things - 1. Never use your own money, and 2. NEVER USE YOUR OWN MONEY.
However following the recent yellow peril by-election victory in the Highlands normal service is to be resumed and unlike other areas of the UK the chimneys of Auchentennach will be going full blast.
BBC worse than Goebbels' information ministry?
It does look like Hillary, and her time may have come at last.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11918926/David-Camerons-attack-on-Britain-hating-Jeremy-Corbyn-has-painfully-hit-home.html
22% of Labour voters think Jezza is a security threat and terrorist sympathiser. Wow.
We shall see in the next few years how small core support really is.
Interesting piece, Mr. Herdson.
Meanwhile, Corbyn to become vice president of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956
Oh wait - I was forgetting Younus and Misbah.
On this occasion I loaded up to be presented with the thread "David Herdson's guide to" followed by the first half of the word "analysis"....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11937376/Tory-voter-who-confronted-minister-over-tax-credit-cuts-may-not-be-affected-by-reforms.html?WT.mc_id=e_DM56044&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FAM_New&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_2015_10_17&utm_campaign=DM56044
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/epp-leaders-bang-drum-european-army-318571
It comes despite the party's policy to support renewing the Trident nuclear weapons system remaining unchanged at the recent Labour conference.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34558956
The guy is an unnatural schizophrenic!
If you think pacifists are traitors, that's your right, but I for one would hope you'd have the guts to say so.
She fooled Mike though.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26843996
Power is being eroded from nation states and falling into the gaping maw of the EU. It's happened on monetary policy, it's happened on migration, and now it appears to be happening militarily.
The sooner the cabal of mewling eunuchs disintegrates, the better. The longer it takes, the more dreadful the collapse will be.
Thatcher was outspokenly in favour of keeping nuclear weapons - but then, so was her party. Corbyn is making a plain statement that he believes his own party to be wrong on the issue, and CND are (understandably and correctly from their point of view) milking his support for all it's worth and talking about converting the Labour party. The small snag is, I don't see how that's going to happen. The Labour leadership, apart from the leader and his allies, are aware that for good or ill Trident is if not popular at least supported by the majority of the population, and CND are not.
I really can't think of a precedent for a political party having one policy and its leader having the polar opposite policy. Even Balfour in 1906 was partially in favour of tariffs (and Balfour could with justice point out that if he was not in step with his party, he was at least rather closer to the electorate than they were).
EDIT - possibly Gaitskell in the 50s on this issue - but that was a fairly even split that he managed to reverse fairly soon.
1. Do both major parties now consider make up of votes in Electoral College fair or is it perhaps slightly biased to Democrats? Was last change to EC 2012?
2. Do Republicans still consider Precinct (constituency) boundaries favour Democrats for the General Election also in November 2016?
3.Approximately how many primaries are Winner Takes All. I know key one is California.
4. Does each state set its own rules for the state legislature and governors elections and timing or are they also in November of years with even number?
Thanking you
http://labourlist.org/2015/10/prominent-former-frontbenchers-fill-select-committee-roles/
Rashid has Hafeez caught behind and it's given not out... England review and there's a nick... No snicko or hotspot...
NOT OUT!
Off topic, is Corbyn trying to show the world how split his party is on Trident? Surely there will be a vote on this in Parliament before Christmas.
But if Labour can only oppose through select committees, how are they supposed to have any sort of electoral impact? Nobody pays much attention to their work, invaluable though it is, except in unusual circumstances (e.g. phone hacking).
It would be helpful to the nation, but not to the Labour party, and at some point for the sake of the nation the Labour party will have to be a viable political force again.
If those two examples are a guide, it'll end with the Russians winning.
The Apprentice: I used to watch that, but after 5 series or so felt it was all too familiar, and got bored.
It makes you wonder why he stepped down from chairman of Stop The War.
As far as I am concerned he is a traitor and a lying one too. All told he is clearly determined to subvert the labour party with his fellow travellers and his party within a party and turn it into something totally different. Given half a chance he will destroy Britain.
There are elements of the EU that want to create a USE and hard power is a necessary adjunct to their goal. Those elements haven't gone away and are playing a long game. The story of the Eurozone only has two endings; either it becomes a fully unified political entity or it falls apart. If it doesn't fall apart, political union will grind on, however long it takes.
This is what bothers me about our current pseudo-negotiation. There is no status quo. However, we leavers will do ourselves no favours by comparing modern political initiatives with the Nazis. It's the remainers who are harking back to the 20th century
I'd add
11. The US media likes change and drama, just like our media. Be prepared for the position to change radically, as one or another story is blown up as the new highlight. We are more than 3 months away from a single votes being cast. In betting terms, that means don't stake the house on anyone right now.
With regard to Biden, the general view has been that he's had a family tragedy and he needs to be cut some slack to decide in his own time. But I wonder if the chronic indecision is not starting to do real damage to his prospects. It's not so much that it's taking him forever to decide, as that a series of "he will decide by..." deadlines have slid by without a decision. He might be best off saying that at present that for all the familiar reasons he doesn't feel able to plunge himself into the primary battle. That leaves open the possibility that if Clinton implodes he could be the rescue candidate for the Democrats.
Or
Clear Ndpresent Danger.
He might still be a good parallel to Corbyn though, as several people here have said before - an elderly, amiable, not overly intelligent and unambitious leader who, due to force of circumstance, came to the top by accident and did most of his campaigning outside Parliament. And was dethroned by his party? Well, let's wait and see.
And in one respect I think he is downright misleading.
Trump.
It would appear that Trump has spent very little, despite his boasts. Trump is in fact hoping to make money out of the election because he makes money by selling his name.
I suspect that despite his boasts he is the one candidate who does not actually have the money to waste.
Although when I posted the link yesterday re the Luftwaffe flying over Yorkshire on exercise I did find myself singing 'Ten German Bombers'
I'm sure the BBC will be diligent in making sure this latest aspect of the story is widely reported.
It would have probably been better if they had done a bit more fact checking yesterday however before promoting the story in the first place.
Corbyn's a bit more like Julian the Apostate in that regard (minus the intelligence and achievements, of course).
Mr. Carnyx, Watson could be Nero.
Still probably going to be a dull draw but a real Freddy makes the bails fly moment.
Claudius Gothicus was his epithet, because he slew rather a lot of Goths. Only reigned a year or so, dying by disease, I think. His younger brother, whose name escapes me, tried to succeed him, but Aurelian stomped on that ambition sharpish.
That said, for a clever man, Claudius was still daft. Agrippina would have been feeding the lions in short order were I in his shoes.
On 1968 opinion is divided on whether Wallace cost Humphrey the election