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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Democrat debate polling finds Hillary getting big boost from this week’s event
By far the biggest political betting story at the moment is the fight for the presidency of the United States. Although the election itself is 13 months away we are now going through the early stages of the party jostling as both Democrat and Republican hopefuls try to position themselves ahead of the primaries which start in February.
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A Republican.
Is there any reason why the third nationally televised Republican debate is coming up and the Democrats have had one? I'm not saying these things necessarily boost the parties but I would have expected some sort of equality.
The batsmen have given up any pretense of actually running between the wickets. Cook is very fit but he must be knackered.
However, she's a weak candidate and an electable GOP rival should beat her.
Of course, it will never happen, as this is England we're talking about. Much more likely that even now they will fail to save the follow-on.
LAB - 57.9% (+9.0)
GRN - 20.5% (-1.3)
LDEM - 10.4% (+2.3)
CON - 9.3% (-1.4)
APP - 1.8% (-2.7)
Chatteris (Cambridgeshire) result:
UKIP - 41.0% (+6.2)
CON - 40.3% (+5.8)
LDEM - 18.7% (-2.6)
Howgate (Cumbria) result:
LAB - 47.6% (-12.9)
CON - 33.2% (+2.2)
UKIP - 19.2% (+19.2)
The futility of Corbyn in three by elections. Collpasing in Cumbria, not in the game in Cambridgeshire, sweeping up in London Camberwell - where Labour already hold sway.
Green votes are particularly useless replacements for moderate, middle England, Labour ones
These sorts of games can speed up as the wicket deteriorates but I think that a draw is pretty much nailed on here.
Clinton does seem inevitable. Then again, she did 8 years ago too.
Mr. L, it almost rained during one Abu Dhabi practice session. It was very exciting.
In news literally some people have been waiting for, the antepenultimate episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up:
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-gunboat/
Strangely enough, I can't find any other markets to compare the odds at Betfair toward.
EDIT: and Root is on a positive charge now. If one of these gets out, maybe Bayliss should send in Butler and tell him to have a few free hits, get his confidence back.
One hopes that someone within the police reads and takes notice.
@BethRigby: #Yentob told Times any suggestion he was leaving #BBC "ridiculous & completely untrue" but it's 'drawing to conclusion' says source #KidsCo
There's still a long way to go before the nomination, and plenty of known unknowns - let alone the unknown unknowns - that could yet derail her campaign.
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 4 mins4 minutes ago
Decision by Team Corbyn to tweet names of austerity vote rebels triggers cyber tidalwave of anger against the 21 http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4587479.ece …
Whether Hillary or whoever the Democrat is can beat the GOP is another matter, and almost impossible to take a view on until we know who it is.
Relevant comment:
http://www.wsj.com/article_email/the-biden-eclipse-and-the-trump-plateau-1444948741-lMyQjAxMTI1MjE2NjIxMDYwWj
So it couldn't possibly be them .... perhaps it was @Roger ....
They want Corbyn gone. They have a gilt-edged opportunity to kick him. And what do they do? Two hundred impressions of a nodding dog.
So, individually, they don't have to commit at this stage until someone else has done the dirty work and they can be the "unifying figure" to save the party
Of course, if everyone calculates like this...
If the 200 "impressions of a nodding dog" quit (before they were deselected, which most of them would be in this scenario) they'd have no money, no organisation - and they'd be under enormous pressure to do what that chap did in Clacton. Not necessarily with the same result, though.
And Cameron? Well, if he's got the sense he was born with, he'd restore the deposit to what it was in 1918 - 1 vote in 8 and £10k (the equivalent now of £150 then).
Corbyn will ride rough shod over them all. And they'll adopt the position, and take it.
Mr. Abroad, the PLP has some power now. It can exercise that to either try and oust Corbyn or form a break-away party, or wait until its power is eroded by habitual obedience and de-selection of the truculent.
Edited extra bit: Mr. 30, strength is often down to self-belief. Labour MPs are the opposite of the French pug that chased two bears off its property.
Win another election? That's the last thing a typical Labour member wants.
Remember James Purnell's attempt to oust Brown, which ended in failure when Burnham and David Milliband went wobbly, and chickened out on supporting him?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1191312/James-Purnells-fury-betrayal-David-Miliband-Brown-go.html
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/oct/14/cameron-and-gove-showered-praise-on-kids-company-in-18-months-before-its-closure#img-1
Corbyn will have some genuine loyalists, those who wouldn't get shadow positions otherwise, and those who think party unity matters more than having a leader who isn't a full-blown socialist with a hint of communism.
The PLP is pretending its cowardice is a virtue. It could try making Corbyn resign by serially rebelling, or form a break-away party. Or it could sit there, uselessly, nodding compliantly.
Edited extra bit: precisely, Mr. 30. They're the opposite of the Macedonians when Alexander died. There were about a dozen alpha wolves, every one bold, brave and cunning.
Purnell was right to be pissed, and Miliband (D) harmed his own prospects with his cowardice.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34546338
People are being asked to re-submit details of child sex abuse, after some submissions were deleted.
Then Totnes, Bath, and Buckingham, where Labour doesn't feature. And Brighton Pavilion, which is solidly left-wing.
In other news, I see the Tax credit fiasco rumbles on. Beginning to see this as a total utter Feck up from master strategist Osborne. Should be expect some changes in the autumn stament?
I'd be interested to see them run on a higher tax/higher spending platform. I have no issue (as a principle, you understand) with higher public spending as long as it isn't funded by borrowing. By higher tax, I do mean across the population, rather than the fantasy 'soak the rich/bankstas' nonsense which they keep peddling.
However, as long as they cling to the idea of 'borrowing to invest', their previous record in government will haunt them. Brown has poisoned the word 'investment' for an entire political generation.
It may be a useful early indicator of whether the Conservatives will be complacent and let their opponent rise from the canvas, or whether they're keeping their focus.
Also, I wonder whether, with a good number of the grammars now being academies or trusts, whether we will see a grammar school somewhere trying to open a satellite on the edge of or even across an LEA boundary.
When I was a kid, our (geographically small) LEA started to implement a masterplan whereby all the comprehensive schools in the middle of the LEA would close, and the remaining 10 schools would sit on the borders of neighbouring LEAs, attracting students from those places. It was barking mad, of course, but my point is that 'parking the tanks' in terms of school location is not unknown.
On another note, hundred up
But inexcusable nevertheless.
Also, I wonder whether, with a good number of the grammars now being academies or trusts, whether we will see a grammar school somewhere trying to open a satellite on the edge of or even across an LEA boundary.
When I was a kid, our (geographically small) LEA started to implement a masterplan whereby all the comprehensive schools in the middle of the LEA would close, and the remaining 10 schools would sit on the borders of neighbouring LEAs, attracting students from those places. It was barking mad, of course, but my point is that 'parking the tanks' in terms of school location is not unknown.
On another note, hundred up
My grammar school, in Colchester, has responded to every period of local pressure by expanding, as a way of justifying its ongoing existence. A second site would hardly seem impossible in what is a massively growing town.
Also, I wonder whether, with a good number of the grammars now being academies or trusts, whether we will see a grammar school somewhere trying to open a satellite on the edge of or even across an LEA boundary.
When I was a kid, our (geographically small) LEA started to implement a masterplan whereby all the comprehensive schools in the middle of the LEA would close, and the remaining 10 schools would sit on the borders of neighbouring LEAs, attracting students from those places. It was barking mad, of course, but my point is that 'parking the tanks' in terms of school location is not unknown.
On another note, hundred up
Congratulations on your century
I'm expecting Lucy Powell to do another impression of Sideshow Bob in the field of rakes. It's another bear trap for Labour. If they oppose, then they're even less likely to recover in the South.
I think Mr Innocent made a good point earlier. Labour don't, for now, want to be in power.
20 were in Labour seats; the other one was the seat held by Caroline Lucas.
16 of the 20 Labour seats were in London; seats held by people like Abbott, Corbyn, O'Donnell, usually in the 1980s 'socialist republic' boroughs.
They aren't reaching out, they're crowding in.
Ed's core vote strategy has been supplanted by Corby's inner-core strategy.
Granted, it's being successfully peddled.
https://twitter.com/Zerb86/status/654942024391663616
Good morning. My morning check on what the peaceful palestinians are doing.
I'm expecting Lucy Powell to do another impression of Sideshow Bob in the field of rakes. It's another bear trap for Labour. If they oppose, then they're even less likely to recover in the South.
I think Mr Innocent made a good point earlier. Labour don't, for now, want to be in power.
Do you think amongst the wider electorate, support for grammar schools follows that clean a left/right split? I am PB Labour, and broadly sympathetic to rebuilding a grammar system, as long as we are innovative about how we do it, and don't just ape 1950s attitudes.
My wife who is a floating voter with the occasionally vicious turn of Daily Mail phrasing, is dead against - scarred by a spell in a grammar school sixth form where she felt actively discriminated against compared to 'our girls'.
We can see there is a policy of victimisation since 37 did not vote altogether but 21 singled out. Still, what with death and defenestration there will be a lot of safe seats up for grabs in 2020.
Today is the last day it's on iPlayer so do catch it if you can.
The question for the current Labour party is why their party - whose roots lie in people like Robert Owen and others like him - is currently so unattractive - indeed positively repellent to - people like me and SO and others who do think that we have a responsibility to help others worse off than ourselves and that we're all better off as a result.