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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary bounces back in the Democratic nomination betting after an assured performance in first debate
Overnight in Las Vagas there’s been the first TV debate of the Democratic primary. This was all about Hillary and how well she’d perform after a period of declining poll ratings and the rise of Bernie Sanders.
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America really needs a better political system, preferably one with less money swilling around in it.
Oh, and first.
FPT - Heroic 'whataboutary' from the Russians in the Dutch MH17 report:
http://cdn.onderzoeksraad.nl/documents/appendix-v-consultation-part-a.pdf
https://twitter.com/thedailyshow
The full report is very dry and technical, with some very good photos of the job the investigators did to reconstruct the plane and determine the breakup sequence. A good read if you like these sort of things and have a couple of hours to kill - maybe on a long flight!!
http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl
The report does make chilling reading - though mercifully (despite what some of the newspapers are reporting) it looks like the victims knew little or nothing of what overwhelmed them.....
I do worry about a lot of what journalists write these days, did those writing the lurid and upsetting headlines even read - and understand - the full Dutch report, or were they just looking for the 'angle' of the conflict? Hard on the families to read those unnecessary headlines.
Depressingly, when every newspaper article about which one vaguely understands the subject matter is seen to be riddled with errors, it is concerning for the other 90% of articles in the same paper from which one expects be informed. I guess there's not as many specialist hacks as there used to be, but with stories like this they really do need to take informed opinions before printing obvious bollocks!
Now its endless whataboutary 'it might have been something else' - the Dutch go through that in detail.....I think they're last line is 'maybe it was a BUK, but it wasn't ours....'
One of their complaints is that the proportions of shrapnel found in the cockpit bodies ('hundreds' in the Purser) don't exactly match that of a BUK warhead......
There is actually little evidence that Scottish voters are more sympathetic to welfare claimants than English voters. Nor are they over keen on paying taxes.
The Scottish Parliament has had the power to increase the basic rate of income tax by 3p since 1999. No government has contemplated using the Scottish rate. It will be a brave government that ever does.
Quite.
Edit: I also don't think that the Russians expected the whole written conversation with the Dutch investigators to form an appendix to their report!
Bellingcat has done some great work:
https://www.bellingcat.com
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/russia-accused-of-faking-pics-to-shift-blame-in-mh17-disaster/story-fnizu68q-1227123846130
Good link to Bellingcat BTW, a very thorough debunking.
At the time [of Watson's accusation of an un-named former cabinet minister], terminally ill Lord Brittan was in London’s Princess Grace Hospital recovering from a major operation and was not available for the interview.
He was well enough to be questioned on May 30 at the offices of his lawyers, Mishcon de Reya, in central London.
Detectives turned up late – causing Lord Brittan added distress – and farcically brought a broken tape recorder, meaning they had to take down his comments in long hand.
The interview lasted just 30 minutes. Lord Brittan provided a prepared statement and the officers said they had no supplementary questions.
Sources said the officers appeared ‘embarrassed’ as there was ‘absolutely no credible or corroborative evidence’ to support the rape claim made by a hardline Labour activist with severe mental health problems known as Jane.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3271471/Brittan-police-panicked-Tom-Watson-Officers-requested-interview-peer-just-two-days-Labour-MP-complained-handling-case.html#ixzz3oWI17Q3a
Russia is a different ball-game. I think we will send 20 soldiers to Latvia or something.
The current best estimate is that, after the primaries are over, the GOP will spend $2 billion plus and the Democrats maybe a quarter as much again.
It used to be said that the Presidency was too big to buy. No longer.
"Russia is a different ball-game. I think we will send 20 soldiers to Latvia or something."
Maybe we should pass a law that Russia shouldn't do it again?
It will not end well.
It seems to me that any bet against Hilary is a bet that her health will fail (very unlikely) or she gets indicted (even more unlikely). Laying at 1/3 for the democratic nomination looks very brave.
Can the republicans find a credible candidate (ie not Trump) to oppose her? They seem to be struggling so far.
"The manner of his U-turn implied that Denis Healey in his present state would be a more effective shadow Chancellor. For McDonnell to abandon that policy without any discussion with colleagues highlighted the isolation of a cabal which feels it can only carry the Shadow Cabinet and PLP by bouncing them into a fait accompli."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/corbyn-can-no-longer-ignore-the-spectre-of-his-imminent-demise-a6692766.html
The reason it is harsh is of course because it is true. John McDonnell has managed the remarkable and indeed almost unbelievable feat of being much worse than expected as Shadow Chancellor. Given what was expected, that's a truly damning indictment of how bad a mistake Corbyn has made. And we are still less than a month in to what could be five years of this.
It is the poor appointments Corbyn has made that are going to damage the Labour party so badly even if Corbyn himself moves on: McDonnell, Abbott, Powell, Smith, the Eagle twins. There's not a shred of talent among the lot. When Burnham and Benn are your only impressive spokesmen ('impressive' being a relative term here) there's a real problem.
There are worse fates but you need to read a SeanT novel to contextualise the horror.
The Great Dance has carefully calibrated moves so that there is no misunderstanding. A miscalculation, a disproportionate response, at any point can lead to calamity
I'm afraid I'm reduced to the point that when I read this sort of thing from Nats:
>This must be the most transparent fiscal trap since the Malt Tax in 1713.
I want to have it read in his Carry On voice by an exhumed Kenneth Williams.
It is not a dreadful strategy and if it wasn't being pushed by utter incompetents, who are unable to articulate any kind of constant message. it might have some impact.
As it stands, however, to hear Abbott et al say it is laughable and not just for PB Tories; most people will not be able to relate this supposed catastrophic mismanagement to their own lives.
>This is an issue that I cannot address in depth in an already wrong blog.
I would say "typo", but L and W are at opposite ends of the keyboard, so I'm going with Freudian Slip.
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2015/10/13/whats-wrong-with-facebook-uks-accounts-and-what-reforms-are-now-needed/
Miss Fitalass, didn't see it, but Tim Marshall[sp] was perhaps the single best journalist (head of diplomatic affairs or something similar) at Sky. Very well-informed chap.
How much of the report have you read?
It sets out fairly clearly the area where the missile was likely fired from .....who did the firing is not in their remit.....
So, no recession next year and Labour's at a dead end. (Not that I dont think it already is)
Is that the tame Tory thinktank , surprise surprise they cannot count.
The type of missile and warhead was within the remit, as they were trying to explain what caused the plane to break up, not who fired it.
This is common with all sorts of accident reports: the main requirement is to find out what happened, and leave any prosecutions for who did it (whether by incompetence or malice) to the relevant authorities.
We'll see what happens when the Dutch criminal investigation report is released.
>This must be the most transparent fiscal trap since the Malt Tax in 1713.
I want to have it read in his Carry On voice by an exhumed Kenneth Williams.
You absolute turnip , it was not a Nationalist that wrote it.
Then there's the matter of actually filing for these elections. To be in the race you need to be on the ballot and uncertainty there has a knock-on effect on fundraising capacity, both because doubt impacts on the candidate in question's ability to fundraise, and also because pledges are being made elsewhere in the meantime.
All of which is to say that Biden won't run. It's too late in the day to take on Hillary and it'll soon be too late in the day to take on anyone else even should she withdraw.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33017511
You will note that Russia is making strenuous diplomatic efforts to get existing sanctions lifted (without actually in substance altering the behaviour complained of). We should do the reverse and ratchet them up a couple of notches. Wars don't have to be fought with soldiers. We have little green men of our own and they sit in the City and Canary Wharf.
It will never happen, can you imagine the picture of Sturgeon with a wolf's hat on being called Bambi killer.
From a position of total ignorance (like most). I suspect the missile was launched by Ukranian rebels on their own or under the command of Russians who are now languishing in a gulag and unreachable.
Like you, I think it improbable. The first person attacked will see the blame laid squarely at the politician who gave the green light.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34510438
Hard to see them beating Australia, alas.
Turnip yourself, Malc.
I didn't say it was written by a Nationalist. There's that little phrase "this sort of thing".
Merely an accurate caricature.
Still, at least the air-to-air missile 'theory' has been thoroughly debunked.