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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The worry for LAB is that last night’s PLP could be a foretaste of the next four and a half years
By all accounts last night’s meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party was one of the most fractious and bad tempered in living memory. The division between the leadership and the rest couldn’t be greater. The problem, of course, is that Jeremy Corbyn is the second leader in succession who wasn’t the choice of his party’s MPs. This was all so predictable.
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There are several options: his MPs fall into line; they are marginalised and the worst offenders deselected, or there is a coup against him.
Options 1 and 3 currently seem unlikely.
Not for a moment did they imagine he would one day be their dear leader. So it is not a question of repairing any kind of relationship; they must, rather, address the cognitive dissonance of having Jezza as leader in the first place.
As dawn breaks over Corbynland one wonders whether the Jezzbollah might reflect that Shadow Chancellor McDonnell is a long term Tory plant or at the very least a turnip that not even PB's very best turnipologist @malcolmg could quantify.
Certainly the Labour vegetables are revolting.
McDonnell’s excuse for the U-Turn was beyond credulity. We now have a shadow chancellor who not only believes fiscal responsibility within government is a bad idea, he will now actively shun it.
He's clearly not going to leave this year but looking at 2016, those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 5/2 which looks too skinny to me, although a considerable improvement on Hills' measly 13/8.
It'll be interesting to see how they vary, and where they agree.
The Dutch criminal investigation should be released in a few months.
The MP's know that if they don't behave and are deselected, they will lose the local party support if they jump ship to form a new party a la SDP, and that none of the older local party members will join them, and definitely none of the new members.
They could, of course remain as MP's until the next election, but they know that means that they will not have any chance of returning due to no local support and against a newly invigorated local party determined to get rid of them.
"Communist-sympathising Richard Burgon responded on behalf of the leader attempting to allay fears: “He got told to shut up and sit down,” says one observer: “He is a f**king d*ckhead”"
http://order-order.com/2015/10/12/inside-the-plp-it-was-absolutely-mental/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+guidofawkes+(Guy+Fawkes'+blog+of+parliamentary+plots,+rumours+and+conspiracy)#:sR5MHZdLGemeOQ
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34511999
Would love to have been in that room. I wonder if anybody spat at anybody?
It is quite obvious that McDonnell is innumerate and he has presumably only just realised that the consequence of the fiscal mandate is that he would need to specify by how much he was going to cut spending or increase taxes, a position he would find untenable. Given Labour's critique is that the UK has grown far more slowly (much faster than anyone else in Europe and as fast as the US but hey) because of these austerity provisions I never understood how they could support the mandate in the first place.
I suspect last night was more about how appalled Labour MPs would have been about the disgusting details of Corbyn's active support for the IRA and the profound shame they must feel that such a scum bag was ever allowed to represent their party. At least I would like to think so. There are some Labour MPs with a sense of decency after all.
Either way, I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that regardless of the political problems, Corbyn will not last. I don't think he will be able to take being told how much everyone hates him. Remember, all his life he has convinced himself that he is an honourable, decent, sensible man of principle in a world that but for the conspiracies of fascists would agree with all he says. Finding out that this isn't the case - and moreover, that most of his own party don't believe this is the case - could easily force him to go simply to save his own mental health.
Don't blame Corbyn & McDonnell for this, blame Margaret Beckett and the 13 other clowns who nominated but didn't then back him.
They've made their bed, now they have to lie in it.
Why do they find this so hard to understand
Either way, I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that regardless of the political problems, Corbyn will not last. I don't think he will be able to take being told how much everyone hates him. Remember, all his life he has convinced himself that he is an honourable, decent, sensible man of principle in a world that but for the conspiracies of fascists would agree with all he says. Finding out that this isn't the case - and moreover, that most of his own party don't believe this is the case - could easily force him to go simply to save his own mental health.
Morning. The official account seems to differ somewhat from what everyone else who was actually in the meeting had to say about it. As expected, Corbyn has no great support at all from within the PLP - with noises being made by the leadership and membership about deselections, are the MPs now thinking they have to force JC out sooner rather than later?
You know the world did not start in 2013, Q2 ! You do choose your years with care.
In any case, Ireland is growing much faster than Britain. And surely Ireland is part of "anyone else in Europe".
Perhaps Mrs Jessop is like minded or has already featured in Mr Desmond's publications and you might wish to link to her tasteful contributions.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/25/john-mcdonnell-labour-will-match-osborne-and-live-within-our-means
Is Labour's "warm and friendly" the diplomatic-speak equivalent of "full and frank" I wonder?
Is Labour's "warm and friendly" the diplomatic-speak equivalent of "full and frank" I wonder?
Certainly the official spokesman's view could only have been developed while tired and emotional...
Is Labour's "warm and friendly" the diplomatic-speak equivalent of "full and frank" I wonder?
"Warm and friendly" means there was no spitting, and that the attendees were requested to check in their eggs and flour with their coats.
"Warm and friendly" means there was no spitting, and that the attendees were requested to check in their eggs and flour with their coats.
Said in jest, but probably closer to the mark.
"Emily Thornberry angrily told off her fellow MPs for texting journalists details of what was being said. "
Is Labour's "warm and friendly" the diplomatic-speak equivalent of "full and frank" I wonder?
Does Mr Corbyn's spokesman have a North Korean haircut?
https://coedmagazine.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/kim-jung-un-hair.jpg?quality=88&strip=all
Next up: dog muck.
Tis a substantial loss to human kind and the family exchequer.
It seems Ben Bradshaw spoke for the party, then.
Still, Labour MPs might recall Corbyn's leadership is something for which they themselves are responsible.
It is strangely enthralling watching a party commit suicide on stage.
As for Watson, he will now be driven closer to Corbyn as he blames the right wing media and the establishment for the treatment he receives.
That George Osborne bothered to set a trap for such a shambolic shower of shite shows that deep down he stills sees all this as a bit of a game. This continues to be his major weakness.
That attendance is with free admission too, although Thursday might be busier as it's a public holiday in UAE.
The real crowds turn up for the ODIs and especially the 20/20s. Test match cricket is really dying as a spectator sport, outside England and Australia.
Is Labour's "warm and friendly" the diplomatic-speak equivalent of "full and frank" I wonder?
Is Ben Bradshaw "Tory scum?"
We now have an official opposition that can only oppose itself.
The various disconnects between the leadership, MPs, local party and union backers looks irreconcilable.
If there is another leadership election by a vote of no confidence in JC have we established if he is able to stand without nominations as the deposed leader?
It should be said there are more photos of myself in the nuddie circulating than of the delectable and somewhat sensible Mrs J.
In fact, here's one someone took of me during a walk in Cornwall:
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/63/e1/06/63e1063c97daa2e04dca443be94e7f7a.jpg
Let's remember who JC beat: a Scouse git, a woman who wouldn't have even stood if her old man hadn't carelessly lost his seat and another woman who struggled to convince even herself she wasn't a Tory, really. None of them exactly Denis Healey.
This is because - as Healey himself knew - politics is no longer about class.
Is Ben Bradshaw "Tory scum?"
We are all Tory scum now, comrades!
Is Labour's "warm and friendly" the diplomatic-speak equivalent of "full and frank" I wonder?
Is Ben Bradshaw "Tory scum?"
Is Ben Bradshaw "Tory scum?"
Anyone to the right of the saintly and revered JC is now Tory Scum and fair game for spit and eggs. Welcome to the new polite and civilised Labour Party.
FPT to Surbiton: You're more hardline than me. I see it primarily as a question of how MPs express their views. They were mostly selected in a different era and it's unreasonable to expect them all to have an instant conversion. In particular, on a life and death issue like Syria where there really are arguments both ways I think it's unreasonable to expect routine party line adherence, even though I would vote no myself. And if centrist MPs want to work on alternative policies, that's a good thing - it was their absence which prompted the leadership selection result. However, if an MP routinely gives the Daily Mail quotes slagging off the leader and the party (in the case I'm thinking of, he did exactly the same with Ed Miliband), they're actively looking for martyrdom.
Is Labour's "warm and friendly" the diplomatic-speak equivalent of "full and frank" I wonder?
Warm = Heated
Friendly = Hezbollah were there
@politicshome: "We are in the right position now, it's the position most of the PLP is comfortable with" says Diane Abbott on Fiscal Charter position
I agree that Osborne is just playing silly buggers but McDonnell isn't forced to follow suit.
I wasn't totally surprised that Nick P finds Jezza pleasant. I know one or two Militant supporters and they're not all nutters. Unfortunately, they have a tendency to see all things as political.
Just because your toast is burnt doesn't mean it's a Tory plot against the working class - but that's their default assumption.
Perhaps they deserve each other?
I am sure you are affable in person, but lets not confuse that with political beliefs.
@indiaknight: Why is she laughing? What's wrong with her??
@gabyhinsliff: But it's okay because she seems to think it's funny. #r4today
Just wondering because Corbyn can't be briefed on Privy Council terms, which may make things a bit tricky.
Mr. Brooke, a fair point, although I thought the proposal was that surpluses were to be run when there was no recession.
It is, as SO remarks, George being George.
Either way, I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that regardless of the political problems, Corbyn will not last. I don't think he will be able to take being told how much everyone hates him. Remember, all his life he has convinced himself that he is an honourable, decent, sensible man of principle in a world that but for the conspiracies of fascists would agree with all he says. Finding out that this isn't the case - and moreover, that most of his own party don't believe this is the case - could easily force him to go simply to save his own mental health.
It's also why GO will struggle to get the top job, that role being much better suited to a consensus-building art-of-the-possible type rather the naked political machinations of Osborne (and Brown & Mandleson before him).
Lib Dems should've gone for Lamb. Thought so at the time. There's an acre of space on the centre and soft left now. Farron should still make progress, but Lamb's steadiness is a perfect contrast to the hard left of Labour's leader and the sliminess of the Witchsmeller Pursuivant.
"Setting aside the obvious goal of trapping Labour in to idiocy, why are none of our righties questioning the wisdom of permanent surpluses, at some point things will go tits up and a deficit will need to0 be an option. "
They'll change the law to permanent deficits.
It's a totally bonkers law so why anyone is signing up to it is a mystery.
However, firstly, he may not have run. He did last time and finished a poor third - better than Burnham, to be sure, but then having seen Burnham under serious focus this time that's no great achievement. The bigger question would have been Cooper. He surely couldn't have run against his wife. Apart from the obvious absurdity of it, the experience of the Miliband split is not something he'd want to put Labour through again (and a husband-wife team running against each other is worse than brothers: a couple have chosen to join forces, for better or worse). And if you accept that only one could have run then the likelihood is that it was Cooper's turn. Her reputation was reasonable and the 'glass ceiling' question would have been raised had she not. Furthermore, Balls was arguably compromised by being tied so closely to Ed Miliband. In retrospect - with Corbyn having been elected - that might not have mattered but it would have done during nominations.
But even if he had run, he may not have run. He might have attracted more of the centrist vote that Cooper and Burnham failed to but could he have won over at least a sixth of the support that went *for* Corbyn? It's highly doubtful. In fact, he'd have needed much more than a sixth: that would only have been enough to force a second round. To have won, he'd have needed to swing enough votes to overcome pro-Corbyn transfers too. In all probability, he'd have had to reduce Corbyn's share by more than a quarter: from nearly 60% to some way under 45%. I just don't think there were enough people who voted Corbyn due to a lack of alternatives to bring that about.
However, if he had won his seat, he'd now be king-over-the-water.
But so much is for counterfactuals. In the real world, Corbyn's mandate is very strong for now, no matter what Labour MPs might do.
Is Ben Bradshaw "Tory scum?"
He was elected in the SW - that's a, heh, red flag that he must have Tory leanings.
It may of course be a precondition for TTIP that we have the "bonkers law". After all, TTIP will force governments to scrap anti-corruption laws (and indeed may well criminalise all politics which isn't supported by billionaires).