Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a

12346»

Comments

  • TudorRose said:

    Roger said:

    Wouldn't it be interesting to have a PB poll on 'IN' and 'OUT'? I suspect ifor many Pb Tories it's the ultimate political dilemma;

    'OUT' ticks all their chauvanistic boxes 'IN' is supported by their Leader.

    Absolutely spot on. Tories who want OUT know it effectively finishes Cameron's tenure, I'm interested to see their stance as the day draws nearer.

    Cameron's tenure is coming to an end come what may, there is little dilemma. If anything Cameron pre-announcing his retirement has neutralised this as an issue.
    Yes but they want him to go out waving at his adoring crowds not with his tail between his legs.

    If voters back whichever side Cameron backs it will be because they respect and trust his judgement and not because they care about crowds.
    Yep, tribal sheep waiting to be told what they think, clinging on to their hero's imaginary renegotiation. They're in a lose/lose, vote OUT and they ruin Cameron's legacy, vote IN and go against what they believe in.

    Your statement lacks internal logic. If they are tribal as you claim then Cameron *is* what they believe in, surely.
    Yes and no, they want to leave the EU but the party always comes first.

    Who do you know like that? I don't know anyone like that.
    I spoke to 4 of them yesterday, conservative members who want to vote OUT but are waiting to see what happens with negotiations. That's tory speak for doing what's best for the party and the biggest obstacle facing OUT.

    No its Tory speak for waiting to see what happens with negotiations.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Haha nice try mR Thompson.

    I want to be able to choose who we admit to the country based on what we need in the same way Australia do, I don't care where they come from or what their colour, religion, culture is. Having lived there you're very familiar with the requirements to enter the country.

    Yes I'm very familiar with the fact that the Australians discriminate quite readily where they're happy to and are very happy to have a free movement agreement with their neighbour. As am I.
    Comparing a neighbour of 5m with one of 500m is odd.

    If the IN campaign is based around the importance of freedom of movement OUT will win comfortable.

    Well we're quite a bit bigger than either NZ or Aus. If you compare us to NZ then NZ has freedom of movement with an external population 5.2 times their size whereas we have freedom of movement with an external population 6.8 times our size. Quite comparable really.

    Currently the Leave campaign are suggesting we could keep freedom of movement so its not that odd either.
    Are you absolutely certain LEAVE wants to keep freedom of movement?

    If so I'd be grateful for you reference it.

    This is one of those 'nobody suggested there shouldn't be a cover up' topics. I don't know anybody who is anti-immigration. Personally, I'm anti mass immigration, and even more against _unpredictable_ mass immigration.

    However, we need to admit a whole range of people; whether that's due to skills shortages, family ties, students and so on. The idea that leave just want to pull up the drawbridge seems to be persistent (in fairness, there are bound to be some raving xenephobes in the leave camp, but all movements have their lunatics c.f. the current incarnation of the Labour party).
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Wouldn't it be interesting to have a PB poll on 'IN' and 'OUT'? I suspect ifor many Pb Tories it's the ultimate political dilemma;

    'OUT' ticks all their chauvanistic boxes 'IN' is supported by their Leader.

    It's a very odd situation.

    No-one has explained what problem this renegotiation/referendum trying to solve, yet has the potential to be hugely disruptive both to the country and the government.

    All risk and no up side for the govt. Either IN wins and nothing happens or OUT wins and everything is up in the air and govt looks foolish.
    Of course the problem has been explained. It's crass to suggest otherwise and to do so suggests you are dissembling or stupid.
    The eurozone is inevitably moving to closer monetary, fiscal and thus political union. This is the fundamental issue.
    In this case this vote is irrelevant. On the fiscal point, The UK has no obligation to join the Euro nor power to stop others doing what they want. No need for a referendum or renegotiation on the political point either.

    It's very relevant. You can argue that the current sack of ferrets (all 28 members fighting their own corner) at least has the advantage of stopping very much happening at all, jaundiced thought that argument may be.

    When you have a majority inexorably travelling down a road that _will_ lead to monetary, fiscal and political union, we are no longer an active participant, but a mere tributary state and money pinata. The fact that said union might not take place in the next five years is neither here nor there - the destination is clear. We need to take a long term view.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    Has Eddie Izzard declared for "Remain" yet ?

    He's still fussing about his lipstick
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Kinga said:

    F1: Raikkonen's demotion means Sauber are only 11 points off Lotus. Considering the pace the Lotus has (at certain tracks), that's really quite surprising. Nasr has more points than Maldonado. Not impossible for Lotus to be passed by Sauber.

    Mr D, I noticed that every team except Manor scored points on Sunday, with only Ferrari getting both cars in the top ten. When was the last time that happened?
    Why on earth are you bothered. At least Putin got his suit wet.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @RIchard_Nabavi Yes, actually £20k for £25/week is surprisingly enough a good deal. Most annuity deals look simply awful to me though.

    Yeah, annuity rates are not exactly overwhelming in their generosity.

    The other thing worth considering for anyone near pension age is simply deferring the state pension if they can afford to do so - that is currently an extremely good deal, but the rules are changing and for people who reach state pension age after 6 April 2016 it becomes much less generous.

    http://www.which.co.uk/money/retirement/guides/state-pension-explained/deferring-your-state-pension/
    Annuity rates, like most insurance rates, are bets. If you don't like the odds you don't have to bet but you wouldn't expect your bookmaker to have a different attitude to yours when setting the odds would you?
    Is that strictly true with annuities, don't you need to use at least half (Previously all?!) your pension pot to buy them. Seeing as most employers match contributions on a DC scheme its worth buying in on. But can the terrible annuities be avoided completely ?

    Personally I'd rather have as much as my pot on retirement as possible. I'd spend £20k on this though as beating 5.39% annuity risk free is tricky.
    Annuities are available to anyone but are obviously pension related. You don't now have to use any part of your pension pot to buy one, ever. Whichever way you look at it, annuities and life insurance are opposite sides of the same bet - when are you going to die?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    The case for deciding worker protection (guaranteed holidays etc.) at European level is that it largely disposes of the argument that if our companies treat people well they'll be undercut by Continental rivals who don't. It's a special case of a whole raft of minimum standard issues, including things as uncontentious as safety of HGVs. Some of them have stronger cases for decision at European level than others, and I'd think that guaranteed holidays etc. was somewhere in the middle of the range.

    What a typically leftie view. You get a much better quality of regulation in the EU, like we are incapable of making appropriate decisions here. In mitigation he is a leftie.
    No, the argument seems to be that regulations must be standard to ensure the proper working of free markets.
    I must apologise for not comprehending the Labour fog but now I understand, like Corporation Tax then. Come to think of it, like all tax although you're going to say they're not regulations. They are in the context of the EU support argument presented.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited October 2015

    The case for deciding worker protection (guaranteed holidays etc.) at European level is that it largely disposes of the argument that if our companies treat people well they'll be undercut by Continental rivals who don't. It's a special case of a whole raft of minimum standard issues, including things as uncontentious as safety of HGVs. Some of them have stronger cases for decision at European level than others, and I'd think that guaranteed holidays etc. was somewhere in the middle of the range.

    What a typically leftie view. You get a much better quality of regulation in the EU, like we are incapable of making appropriate decisions here. In mitigation he is a leftie.
    That's unfair. Nick's not saying that you get a 'better' standard of regulation at EU level, simply that EU agreements prevent a race to the bottom within the Union.

    I don't particularly agree with him. Global pressures will work on the EU just as much as on individual states, and - on the other side of the equation - mobile workers will gravitate to places with higher pay and better conditions, so market pressures do have an effect both ways.

    But it is a practical rather than ideological debate.
    I suppose my response is that practicalities are subject to ideological interpretation. Do you dispute that, in general terms, the left likes a regulation much more than reasonable people do.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Roger said:

    Wouldn't it be interesting to have a PB poll on 'IN' and 'OUT'? I suspect ifor many Pb Tories it's the ultimate political dilemma;

    'OUT' ticks all their chauvanistic boxes 'IN' is supported by their Leader.

    Do you think we should do that via a committee; probably not without setting up an enquiry first and we'd have to debate it in conference.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    antifrank said:

    George Osborne going into the annuity business is quite a smart way of getting cash into the government coffers in the short term.

    We did something similar in 1976 (I think) when it was made mandatory for larger export credits to be denominated in USD. This was for largely a cash flow benefit. I agree that GO's pension changes might well be beneficial for HMG finances (I don't recall ever seeing a cost evaluation) but I think the benefit you seem to refer to largely accrues from the "cash in" change by generating an up font tax charge where non might exist from later pension drawings. I cannot see where dispensing of the requirement to purchase an annuity would generate a tax benefit for HMG. I'm sure you'll enlighten me if I'm wrong.

    There were however other tax changes in pension regulations which I think cost the Exchequer. I confess to being a beneficiary so that the lefties can throw bricks at me or perhaps more likely these days, spit at me - metaphorically of course.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    "

    Sadly, we haven't had much information from either campaign yet.

    What I would like to see from Leave is a clear picture of what trade deals we could likely secure with the EU and other nations, based on solid research of what other countries have done/are doing.

    What I would like to see from Remain is a clear method for how we're going to change Franco-German/Eurozone domination, the ongoing slide towards integration by new legislation, and unsustainable levels of immigration.

    My vote is very much up for grabs. I want to stay in the EU as a community of nations, but not at any cost. "

    @JEO

    I am browsing on my phone so it is not easy to type. I have some analysis of desirable trade agreements, the likelihood of signing them, time taken to sign them, etc. I will post it later or pm you.
Sign In or Register to comment.