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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a 3% LEAVE lead to a 19% REMAIN one
The chart above is based on the difference between the REMAIN and LEAVE figures, before netting off the don’t knows, in all the EU referendum polls since the beginning of September.
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Greece and/or migrant crisis = Leave...
All quiet on the Eurozone front = Stay...
The question is, therefore, whether we have 55% turnout (an "out"), 65% (roughly a tie), or 75% (almost certainly "in").
On another topi the Spanish GE polling very interesting with Ciudadanos as king-makers - which way will they swing? Hopefully with the PP provided they clean up their act because the ir economic policies have in fact begun to work.
All that said this is a genuinely difficult question in which neither the remain or the leave options are even close to being adequately defined as yet. Whether they ever will be in moot but right now this policy geek is probably a don't know.
It's nice that the Spanish electorate seem to have given up on the nutters Podemos.
Mind you, if I think that STAY has a 3:2 lead come the referendum itself, I'll probably take that as a free pass to QUIT.
Status Quo will win.
Has this been mentioned here?
Something like a modern version of this very dated Dunlop commercial would be a good start.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NebZb7dnd8
;-)
PP has lost a huge amount of support since the last GE and to stay in power will have to compromise hugely. It's never given the impression of being able or willing to do that - especially when it comes to its Spanish nationalism.
Post-December will be a big test for C's. And for the PP. Spain needs a stable government, it desparately needs to put its constitutional issues to bed, there is corruption on the left and right to tackle, and the recovery has to be maintained. A deal is possible, but will need PP to be grown-up in a way that it often struggles to be.
Must be a front runner for SPOTY ( do your own research etc)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-34486280
I still hold the view that In will won by a fairly comfortable margin (I previously thought the margin would be larger, but Merkel's doing her best to help Out).
Two initial thoughts: (1) she was assuming that all those who wanted to come were refugees. Not the case and one would have thought that an asylum judge would know the difference between refugees and migrants; and (2) the underlying assumption was that a problem created by civil war in the Middle East was the responsibility of Europe to sort out. There seemed to be no thought that, maybe - just maybe - some of the rich countries in the Middle East which are doing nothing (and there are those countries which are bearing the greatest burden) should also take their proportionate share and do far far more.
"There seemed to be no thought that, maybe - just maybe - some of the rich countries in the Middle East which are doing nothing (and there are those countries which are bearing the greatest burden) should also take their proportionate share and do far far more."
She was a British retired judge. Why on earth should she be talking about what other countries should do? That's what Farage does.
Passing humanitarian responsibilities to others is not actually very humanitarian
The best bet for Leave is to paint Remain as more risky by showing what we are really voting for down the road if we do stay, and the EU's record - its past "form" - towards the UK on promises, including the language used.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3268770/Scotland-Yard-faces-questions-police-used-Tom-Watson-s-office-interview-child-abuse-informant.html
In any case, I really hate the argument that "we have X Y Z rights/regulations" (in the environment, employment, consumers, etc) thanks only to the EU and once we leave they'll go. Many of those rights are also enjoyed by - shock horror - Western countries outside the EU, including right-wing countries like Australia.
The LEAVE campaign needs to spell out exactly that. We enjoy rights which may or may not remain whether we stay in or leave the EU. The difference being with leaving is that what rights exist will be up to our own Parliament. And of course point out that countries outside the EU have similar rights and also that the UK, had it never joined the EU, would in all likelihood also have developed a similar set of rights.
It's almost up there with the "EU has created European peace" nonsense. Though that really is the cream of nonsense. I'll spell it out for anyone who doesn't get reality: the EU is a product of peace, not the cause of it. Golly...
Then again....
England OUT
Scotland IN
Wales IN
[ N ] Ireland IN
Comres might be correct here though. An inconvenient potential truth to BOOers, but just because it is an outlier we shouldn't dismiss it out of hand. The next Comres will be interesting.
Do they have a methodological difference to the others ?
1. 27 governments agreeing on something
2. 1 government deciding
Even you can work that out, I am sure.
.....
Outrageous. I've been asking to determine Defence policy for far longer, and *I've* never had a meeting.
"The benefits of the EU are many but not immediately obvious. I just heard someone on radio try to explain why we should stay in but it all sounded business orientated and not someting that touched most people. The 'stay in' side need to build a shopping list of how it benefits us all.
Something like a modern version of this very dated Dunlop commercial would be a good start."
Great ad. The humour complements one's desire to peel up the gym-slip.
oof
lol
oof
Burnhamite – A malleable substance that can bend and merge to form any shape required of it before ultimately imploding.
I like this one...too true.
Perhaps he's becoming akin to Russell Brand.
It will be interesting to see if any of the celebrity convictions are reviewed, as some seemed to have more evidence than others, though once the jury has decided, perhaps that is the end of it.
It was bizarre viewing - I kept thinking You're Just An Actor
Perhaps the EU will make the trains run on time as well
Under Labour's reforms immigration panel members are entitled to call themselves "judge" even if they don't have any legal training
Can anyone spot the common thread here?
the Comfy Chair....
If you're relying on a supernational body to override the democratic wishes of the domestic electorate you will reap the whirlwind in the long-term IMHO.
If it is unsuccessful (or we depart) we will probably all carry on regardless, until we find some conflict, which may be resolved either peacefully or violently.
Listen mate, I'm considering voting Leave and if I do, it's not because I'm a Quitter but because a multimillionaire has failed to set out a positive platform for the UK changing the existing dynamic in the EU. Insulting half the electorate generally isn't a good approach.
oof
First they came for those with a sense of humour....
Now nobody's laughing.
The EU serves a very good purpose in breaking down barriers between EU nations. But internal UK only issues like relations between employer and employee can be determined by the British government and the British electorate. The EU is overstretched meddling in those issues.
His performance at M&S looks to have been modest to me.
Remainers should be focussing on where the EU has been a force for good and where the UK has been an effective force for change within the EU. Numbers leave most of us number.