What happens to the Conservative Party if REMAIN wins narrowly. Say, 52 - 48. Do all the Euro-sceptics suddenly become Euro-philes ? Will they accept no more referendums in a generation ?
The country is ideally heading for either:
1.Proportional Representation of some kind. Even d'hondt.
2.AV if constituency link is that important.
Because large sections of both the Tories and Labour will be restless.
If Corbyn goes it would be the Left of the Party. If REMAIN prevails, the Euro-sceptics amongst the Tories.
Isn't that always going to be the issue in a two party system (and in Westminster there are still only 2 parties who could credibly claim to be in a position to form a government)? if a party occupies the centre - it exposes its extreme flank, if it moves towards the extreme it exposes its centre flank. The most stable situation is if both parties are equidistant from centre to their extreme and their extremes are as extreme as each other. Admittedly, that creates the biggest gap for a third centrist party to enter, but in an FPTP system we've seen how difficult breakthrough is.
Ultimately, I think some kind of flux of this nature is just the natural state of affairs in politics and that, in the medium- to long-term, the pendulum tends to swing back unless you fundamentally change the rules of the game. It's why I don't believe any claims by any party to be the natural party of government.
So the People's Republic of South Yorkshire is going to get an elected President.
Actually, up here in Co Durham we aren't too keen on an elected mayor for what is laughably called the Newcastle City Region. Too much power in one pair of hands, and likely to have little interest in the more remote corners of the region. But the big question is whether it will be Ant or Dec.
I agree with plato (a rare occurrence) on involving spouses and family. Mrs Cameron's background, personality, interests, habits and past are absolutely none of our business, unless she chooses to speak out on politics, which she doesn't much. As a culture we are collectively far too nosy.
Correct. Actually, I quite like her. Come to think of it, Cameron himself is also likeable. It would be difficult, even for me, to personally dislike him.
Maybe, that is the reason for his success. Bliar used to be like that.
@another_richard I'd add to that the welfare reforms that have seen many long-term unemployed and young people who would otherwise have been unemployed enter the workforce instead. These are people who would enter the workforce at the bottom end and will deflate the productivity rate simply by working.
In 2011 youth unemployment was 22.3% and now it is 15.4% - had those who were unemployed stayed unemployed then most likely productivity as a whole would be higher which is why it is a useless metric in isolation.
Youth unemployment is falling at a similar rate now as it did after the recession of the early 1990s:
There has always been, and will always be, people entering the workforce at the bottom end so the productivity stagnation isn't caused by that.
No it is not falling at a similar rate. According to your link it fell from 18% in '93 to 14.8 in '96 (a fall of 3.2% in 3 years or 1% per annum). Whereas its fallen from over 20% in Oct 2011 to 13% in Jul 14 a fall of 7% in 3 years or over 2% per annum. That is considerably different.
Of course like above I've cherrypicked the data months, but if you go like for like in months it is still about 2% per annum and not 1% per annum. People enter the workforce at the bottom all the time but considerable change has occured here not just churn.
What happens to the Conservative Party if REMAIN wins narrowly. Say, 52 - 48. Do all the Euro-sceptics suddenly become Euro-philes ? Will they accept no more referendums in a generation ?
The country is ideally heading for either:
1.Proportional Representation of some kind. Even d'hondt.
2.AV if constituency link is that important.
Because large sections of both the Tories and Labour will be restless.
If Corbyn goes it would be the Left of the Party. If REMAIN prevails, the Euro-sceptics amongst the Tories.
I'll be incredibly disappointed if we vote to remain. However, I can't complain; I wanted a referendum and we're going to have one.
TimT..this was some years ago the yaght was available for rental..charter.. all year round.. but was unavailable due to technical difficulties for most of that period.. and yes he did live and work on it..This person died some years ago..
What happens to the Conservative Party if REMAIN wins narrowly. Say, 52 - 48. Do all the Euro-sceptics suddenly become Euro-philes ? Will they accept no more referendums in a generation ?
The country is ideally heading for either:
1.Proportional Representation of some kind. Even d'hondt.
2.AV if constituency link is that important.
Because large sections of both the Tories and Labour will be restless.
If Corbyn goes it would be the Left of the Party. If REMAIN prevails, the Euro-sceptics amongst the Tories.
No chance whatsoever.
Parts of the backbenches at both parties always have and always will be restless but the winning party under FPTP is the one that forms a broad church, which is why FPTP works so very well and why we rejected AV by two votes to one which you seem to have forgotten.
IIRC 99% of seats in England belong to the two parties (counting the Speaker). In Scotland 95% of seats belong to one.
We've never been further away from a breakdown of the system or a need for voting reform.
TimT..this was some years ago the yaght was available for rental..charter.. all year round.. but was unavailable due to technical difficulties for most of that period.. and yes he did live and work on it..This person died some years ago..
Glad he got away with it. Generally unsympathetic to the IRS
The paragraph promoting Priti Patel's chances appears to have been accidentally omitted from Mr Herdson's article.
David knows his onions within the Tory party. With Miss Patel, all you will need is point to a few youtube urls.
Favourite words: "Look" , "Listen"
Some posters probably think I spend most of my time watching youtube videos of Priti Patel!
I still believe she is a credible candidate of the Tory Leave faction.
She’s done a few strange things recently in her constituency. For example, describing a small group of elderly (and sometimes disabled) protestors as “thugs” and firing off an email to Len McCluskey demanding that he “call them off”, when there was no connection, springs to mind.
So the People's Republic of South Yorkshire is going to get an elected President.
Actually, up here in Co Durham we aren't too keen on an elected mayor for what is laughably called the Newcastle City Region. Too much power in one pair of hands, and likely to have little interest in the more remote corners of the region. But the big question is whether it will be Ant or Dec.
Indeed.
But the 'Sheffield City Region' will not be just South Yorkshire butr will include huge lumps of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire as well.
God knows how many councils, NHS regions, transport organisations etc the new 'leadership' will have to work with (and against).
Still I bet the 'consultants' will get very rich by giving 'advice'.
@another_richard I'd add to that the welfare reforms that have seen many long-term unemployed and young people who would otherwise have been unemployed enter the workforce instead. These are people who would enter the workforce at the bottom end and will deflate the productivity rate simply by working.
In 2011 youth unemployment was 22.3% and now it is 15.4% - had those who were unemployed stayed unemployed then most likely productivity as a whole would be higher which is why it is a useless metric in isolation.
Youth unemployment is falling at a similar rate now as it did after the recession of the early 1990s:
There has always been, and will always be, people entering the workforce at the bottom end so the productivity stagnation isn't caused by that.
No it is not falling at a similar rate. According to your link it fell from 18% in '93 to 14.8 in '96 (a fall of 3.2% in 3 years or 1% per annum). Whereas its fallen from over 20% in Oct 2011 to 13% in Jul 14 a fall of 7% in 3 years or over 2% per annum. That is considerably different.
Of course like above I've cherrypicked the data months, but if you go like for like in months it is still about 2% per annum and not 1% per annum. People enter the workforce at the bottom all the time but considerable change has occured here not just churn.
As you say you've cherry picked the data.
And if you use different months or different data tables you get diferent pictures.
The attempt to excuse stagnant productivity on falling youth unemployment - something which unlike stagnant productivity happens after every recession - is cretinous and/or mendacious.
Of course if the same productivity stagnation happened under a Labour government - and IMO that's where the problem originated - you would be loudly condemning Labour for it.
So the People's Republic of South Yorkshire is going to get an elected President.
Actually, up here in Co Durham we aren't too keen on an elected mayor for what is laughably called the Newcastle City Region. Too much power in one pair of hands, and likely to have little interest in the more remote corners of the region. But the big question is whether it will be Ant or Dec.
Indeed.
But the 'Sheffield City Region' will not be just South Yorkshire butr will include huge lumps of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire as well.
God knows how many councils, NHS regions, transport organisations etc the new 'leadership' will have to work with (and against).
Still I bet the 'consultants' will get very rich by giving 'advice'.
Sheffield City Region goes a serious distance south - it includes the likes of Ashbourne and Matlock, which is the headquarters of Derbyshire County Council.
Quite a surprise - I have only escaped by a couple of miles. Matlock and Ashbourne should look to Derby/Nottingham in a sane division. Ashbourne is 13 miles from Derby, but 35 from Sheffield.
Hopefully there's enough of the rest to keep the Sheffield Zoomers in check . At least the Peak National Park will probably stop them building on any more Derbyshire Hills or putting in more reservoirs, unlike in the 1920s/30s.
The paragraph promoting Priti Patel's chances appears to have been accidentally omitted from Mr Herdson's article.
David knows his onions within the Tory party. With Miss Patel, all you will need is point to a few youtube urls.
Favourite words: "Look" , "Listen"
Some posters probably think I spend most of my time watching youtube videos of Priti Patel!
I still believe she is a credible candidate of the Tory Leave faction.
She’s done a few strange things recently in her constituency. For example, describing a small group of elderly (and sometimes disabled) protestors as “thugs” and firing off an email to Len McCluskey demanding that he “call them off”, when there was no connection, springs to mind.
How are they "sometimes disabled"? Do their limbs regrow in moonlight?
The paragraph promoting Priti Patel's chances appears to have been accidentally omitted from Mr Herdson's article.
David knows his onions within the Tory party. With Miss Patel, all you will need is point to a few youtube urls.
Favourite words: "Look" , "Listen"
Some posters probably think I spend most of my time watching youtube videos of Priti Patel!
I still believe she is a credible candidate of the Tory Leave faction.
She’s done a few strange things recently in her constituency. For example, describing a small group of elderly (and sometimes disabled) protestors as “thugs” and firing off an email to Len McCluskey demanding that he “call them off”, when there was no connection, springs to mind.
How are they "sometimes disabled"? Do their limbs regrow in moonlight?
Sorry; clumsy language. Some of the elderly protestors were in wheelchairs or using walking aids.
Wildly O/t Japan are leading Samoa 20-0 at half-time!
This is going to be a bad weekend for sport. Can't face the game tonight so am going out for a curry with the wife.
Il Lombardia - the last big bike race of the year - looks set to be a cracker (though if you're looking for tips I'm afraid the value has drained from the market; FWIW I think Nibali will win).
The course is really well suited for Dan Martin or Rui Costa. But personally I don't like their odds. I find the best bets on cycling tend to be getting places with good odds than finding the winner. Leo Konig is the stand out here, 200/1 with quarter odds on the top 4 at Paddy. Albasini at 100/1 isn't bad either.
The SNP leadership must be keeping their fingers crossed that no more questionable dealings by elected officials come out. One can be brushed aside. Two is highly unfortunate. Three is a trend.
Both are unfounded smears and will be shown to be so, we had the Tories bunging their pals recently and Labour with pliant media not even mentioning. It will have no impact , as we saw yesterday they are still on the upswing. The loyalist parties are lucky it is not all FPTP or they would be completely missing from parliament, as it is they will scrabble for the consolation list seats.
Come on MalcolmG, you are better than that, please dont use the ugly sectarian language which cost us so much in Northern Ireland.
There are two questions about the Tory leadership. The first is whether George Osborne should be the next leader. That is highly debatable. The second is whether he will be. That is more the subject of internal politics, and public sentiment, or in fact party sentiment, are really incidental to it. The simple fact is that the incumbent Prime Minister, an incumbent Prime Minister who has not only increased his party's performence in a general election against all odds, but turned the Tories from a joke to the natural party of government in ten years is 100% dedicated to using every last resource of his offices, both as PM and Tory leader, to ensure that Osborne succeeds him. The magic circle has been on hiatus but it is not gone. This will not be a fair or open election. Every cabinet reshuffle, every promotion, every selection, everything will be predicated on enhancing Osborne's chances and screwing over Boris and Theresa May, as well as any other rival. Personal antipathy adds to the balance against Boris, for a non-Etonian, grasping exactly how strong the loathing is between the Prime Minister and London Mayor is difficult, but I would not be surprised if Cameron preferred Corbyn to him.
The only way for Osborne to lose is for the entire UK political system to be completely turned inside out by 2019. That does not mean the government running into trouble, or going through doldrums, or the EU playing out poorly. It means a complete and utter transformation of the political playing field, and the types of issues that are important. Otherwise no one is going to be stupid enough to go after Osborne, since it would be career suicide to do so now. Rather, they will position themselves like Heath and Maulding did in the early 1960s, to benefit from the problems he will have as a leader who came into office in the manner he likely will.
Comments
Ultimately, I think some kind of flux of this nature is just the natural state of affairs in politics and that, in the medium- to long-term, the pendulum tends to swing back unless you fundamentally change the rules of the game. It's why I don't believe any claims by any party to be the natural party of government.
Favourite words: "Look" , "Listen"
Actually, up here in Co Durham we aren't too keen on an elected mayor for what is laughably called the Newcastle City Region. Too much power in one pair of hands, and likely to have little interest in the more remote corners of the region. But the big question is whether it will be Ant or Dec.
Maybe, that is the reason for his success. Bliar used to be like that.
Of course like above I've cherrypicked the data months, but if you go like for like in months it is still about 2% per annum and not 1% per annum. People enter the workforce at the bottom all the time but considerable change has occured here not just churn.
I still believe she is a credible candidate of the Tory Leave faction.
Parts of the backbenches at both parties always have and always will be restless but the winning party under FPTP is the one that forms a broad church, which is why FPTP works so very well and why we rejected AV by two votes to one which you seem to have forgotten.
IIRC 99% of seats in England belong to the two parties (counting the Speaker). In Scotland 95% of seats belong to one.
We've never been further away from a breakdown of the system or a need for voting reform.
She is certainly sound on many policies that appeal to me.
The business I work for is wealth creating, exporting, tax paying and invests a lot in training and capital expenditure.
And I can tell you that we get fack all help from the government but ever increasing rules and regulation overheads because of them.
But the 'Sheffield City Region' will not be just South Yorkshire butr will include huge lumps of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire as well.
God knows how many councils, NHS regions, transport organisations etc the new 'leadership' will have to work with (and against).
Still I bet the 'consultants' will get very rich by giving 'advice'.
And if you use different months or different data tables you get diferent pictures.
The attempt to excuse stagnant productivity on falling youth unemployment - something which unlike stagnant productivity happens after every recession - is cretinous and/or mendacious.
Of course if the same productivity stagnation happened under a Labour government - and IMO that's where the problem originated - you would be loudly condemning Labour for it.
Quite a surprise - I have only escaped by a couple of miles. Matlock and Ashbourne should look to Derby/Nottingham in a sane division. Ashbourne is 13 miles from Derby, but 35 from Sheffield.
Hopefully there's enough of the rest to keep the Sheffield Zoomers in check
Do their limbs regrow in moonlight?
Wildly O/t Japan are leading Samoa 20-0 at half-time!
The only way for Osborne to lose is for the entire UK political system to be completely turned inside out by 2019. That does not mean the government running into trouble, or going through doldrums, or the EU playing out poorly. It means a complete and utter transformation of the political playing field, and the types of issues that are important. Otherwise no one is going to be stupid enough to go after Osborne, since it would be career suicide to do so now. Rather, they will position themselves like Heath and Maulding did in the early 1960s, to benefit from the problems he will have as a leader who came into office in the manner he likely will.