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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next year’s London Mayoral election next will be the big t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next year’s London Mayoral election next will be the big test for the Corbyn leadership.
“Sadiq. Wow” said the text message that came in as I was walking down an Italian hillside. It alerted me to the fact that Sadiq Khan had won the Labour London Mayoral selection by a decisive margin.
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That tends to infer what most have been saying that Labour is an "Islington based party" or more interested in the south? Surely not?
The problem Corby really has is the fact that the country expects a political party to be united. It does not matter they don't actually agree with what that party stands for but too get bonus points then they have to be seen as a coherent political entity.
Which I suppose brings me back to Labour... Corby and despair.... Labour are screwed really.
Oh and 1st
Anyone but Sadiq Khan please. His nasty racially divisive identity politics leads to what happened in Rotherham and Tower Hamlets, it needs driving out of British politics for good and never allowed to return.
If the Tories go for Zac as expected, and given the electoral system, does that leave an opportunity for an unashamedly pro-City, pro-LHR-expansion, pro-driverless-Underground-trains independent candidate to stand with a reasonable chance of coming through..?
It would in any case be a return to comfort-zone politics and a complete failure to learn at least four lessons already harshly taught to Labour. In 2008, Boris was posh; Labour lost. In 2010 Cameron was posh; Labour lost. In 2012, Boris was posh; Labour lost. In 2015, Cameron was posh; Labour lost. The public doesn't give a stuff about poshness; it cares about who will govern and represent best.
Just because Labour is obsessed with identity politics, it doesn't mean that everyone else is. It's the same mistake the Tories made re Europe in the 1990s/early 2000s.
If that's the level of Labour thinking, they might as well go in on a slogan of "No to business, no to profit, no to success". Because obviously that's what people come to London for.
I share the disgust at Khan's proposed ethnic quotas. People should be judged by the content of their character, not the colour of their skin.
I don't even live in London
Fortunately the Peebie Right is too idle even to have a whip-round to pay the deposit of such a character.l
I'm not denying he has an ego (Don't all billionaires !), but I don't think he's so bothered about politics to run as Mayor of London.
[Bit like Ride to Hell Retribution, a videogame which had 'sex' scenes during which everyone kept their clothes on...]
Neither Sadiq Khan nor Zac Goldsmith looks like an amazing candidate to me, though both are capable enough. Sadiq Khan is likely to have both a stronger attraction factor than Zac Goldsmith and a stronger repulsion factor than the Conservative. My expectation is that he will also have the better electoral machine, especially if he can get those Corbynistas doing more than just tweeting. How vigorously will Boris Johnson help his old school chum?
Will Jeremy Corbyn himself affect the race (positively or negatively)? Maybe. The unpopularity of government didn't stop Boris Johnson being re-elected in 2012 and the popularity of Tony Blair didn't stop Ken Livingstone getting elected in 2000 ahead of the official Labour candidate, but both had far bigger profiles at those dates than either of those two do now. Politics has been mildly hysterical for the last month or so. Surely it will calm down a bit in the coming months. Ultimately I expect the London public to elect their preferred mayor rather than pass judgement on the Labour leader in this election.
Taken as a whole (ignoring other candidates), I would currently price it at 4/7 Khan, 7/4 Goldsmith.
I actually think Khan is a very capable politician. I just worry about him in power. It's a doubling down on Labour's hostility to white people. But this time it's not just denigrating them with rhetoric but making laws against them.
Regarding cyber bullying, Corbyn really mentioned it? I'm surprised he bothered. He knows he doesn't have to direct them on his side, so he's free to condemn knowing it won't stop it, like all the best online attack squads it can be useful but is distant enough that he's not responsible for it, and can condemn it knowing it won't stop as a result, so he can get what benefit there is hole maintaining a moral high ground. It's how it works for everyone in that position.
And I've just seen the twitters from two of the by elections - SNP 59% in Glenrothes. Glenrothes!!!
http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/13798664.Don_t_mention__quot_Scotland_quot___Labour_MPs_told__talk_about_Glasgow__Edinburgh__etc_instead/?ref=twtrec
The new SLAB Thought For The Day is to pretend Scotland doesn't exist.
Hmm, thought seems to imply some level of intelligence. How about : -
The new SLAB Top Bullet Point is to pretend Scotland doesn't exist?
The number of houses in the capital hasn't dropped, the population has risen, demand has exceeded supply hence high rents and prices. Its called the market.
Anyone who thinks he hasn't got a chance are clearly unaware of the intracies of London politics....
Zack, Lynton, the economy and the crackdown on voter registrations will see him off.
"Goldsmith is an incredibly fortunate individual who could simply kick back on a 300 foot yacht somewhere, but chooses instead to do something worthwhile. All credit to him for that."
You could say the same for Robert Mugabe or indeed almost any African or Arab ruler. Power is what money buys.
Simply amazing that someone can write that line, with all the problems over muslim governered schools in Birmingham and the capital, and think it was a positive.
As someone else said, most people aren't bothered by class war, the electoral successes of Cameron and Boris Johnson are testament to that.
I wonder how many muslims will vote for Zac? I bet they will be the shyest of shy tories when asked down the the local mosque
What accusation are you making against Goldsmith?
Look at how the Docklands Light Railway opened up docklands for redevelopment, followed closely by the insanely expensive Limehouse Link tunnel (which was, afaicr, over £100,000 per metre in 1991 prices)
The last thing we need are brand new estates with little work inside them, and sod-all transport links to areas with work.
To their credit, some northern cities (e.g. Manchester) are rapidly improving their infrastructure. Others, less so.
Khan would destroy community cohesion in London, but this kind of thing has long been inevitable
Sugar about Corbyn - " If they ever got anywhere near electing him and him being Prime Minister then I think we should all move to China or somewhere like that and let this place rot".
I am glad that I am not a Londoner having to choose between these two pisspoor candidates.
My mandate is bigger than yours.
Best,
Zac.
(%!!!)
Unless you live in London it is honestly difficult to grasp.
I used to live in Colchester. Not the cheapest, but for the price of a two bed house there you can get a a cupboard under the stairs (literally) in Clapham.
Between me an my three housemates, we pay the average net salary in rent each year. In Leyton. Leyton!
Definitely to my financial advantage...
""So I will be clear: as London Mayor I will introduce affirmative action..."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/sadiq-khan-declares-war-race-inequality
http://www.sadiq.london/i_will_introduce_quotas_to_make_the_met_look_more_like_londoners_vows_sadiq_khan
http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/13798664.Don_t_mention__quot_Scotland_quot___Labour_MPs_told__talk_about_Glasgow__Edinburgh__etc_instead/?ref=twtrec
As a Londoner whose vote will be entirely irrelevant next year - I will vote for Caroline Pidgeon who is far and away the best candidate (but I would say that, wouldn't I ?) of those who have declared, I regard the choice between Khan and (as seems likely) Goldsmith as the same as choosing between drowning and being burned alive.
Goldsmith is arguably "Continuity Boris" for all that Boris has achieved next to nothing meaningful as Mayor for all his bluster and buffoonery. Khan has "form" as we say but the question for both leading candidates in a highly polarised electorate is which of them will pick up enough second preferences from the assorted minority Green, LD, UKIP etc, etc voting pools to secure victory.
At the moment, I couldn't vote for either of them as a second preference hence my voting irrelevance.
It's tough (though not impossible as Ken showed) for an Independent to come through and do well but I doubt a pro-City, pro-Heathrow expansion candidate will do much more than join the also-rans and at worst would more likely split the Goldsmith vote so it almost certainly won't happen.
A more interesting alternative might be the Devomax for London candidate arguing for much greater powers for the GLA and Boroughs along the lines of the Scottish Parliament. Such a candidate with a well-argued case would be compelling.
The pro-Gatwick lobby are still fighting their corner hard and their arguments are interesting as a counterpoint to the LHR supporters or to those who unfortunately want to take the ostrich route. Khan is right that housing and transport remain huge issues in London and because there are no easy answers (if there were they would be done) the can is continually kicked down the road.
Housing is a multi-faceted hydra-esque issue which demands far better answers than "let's build more houses" because it's not just about four walls and a roof (or ceiling). It's about creating places to live which means infrastructure, services and communities and that's the tough bit. The "garden city" idea is still of merit but again it needs infrastructure otherwise all we build are soulless dormitory suburbs for the ravenous beast that is London.