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Sunil_Prasannan

First!

[Deleted User]

@Sunil_Prasannan
Yew can qwench a furst wiv sider.

OldKingCole

Shouldn't that be zider?

[Deleted User]

OldKingCole said:

Shouldn't that be zider?

Ahh, 'appen you'm roight.

Socrates

Roger said:

@Socrates
"I struggle to believe the police didn't release the men's skin colours,"

There are as many skin colours as a pantone colour chart. I would have thought build and hair style was as far as they could accurately go in most cases. Or do you know something about their ethnicity that you know would help identification?

And there are as many hair colours as a pantone colour chart. But it's laughably PC to say that terms like "white male", "black male" or "Asian male" wouldn't be major ways to categorise people's appearances.

surbiton said:

Socrates said:

Neil said:

@Socrates

I thought you were down on the EU for not being dynamic economies and having few growth prospects. But you appear to oppose the entry of a dynamic economy with significant growth prospects?

I strongly support free trade with Turkey. I strongly oppose mass, uncontrolled immigration from Turkey, which is what would happen if they joined the EU.

Why would anyone come from a country with 6% growth rate to one which does not know what growth is ?

Did you mean mass immigration from the UK, like to Spain ? How would you control that ?

Because incomes are still three times higher in the UK, even if they're growing much slower.

asjohnstone

On the Turkey thing from the previous thread. The reason people oppose it's entry into the EU is that it is fundamentally a West Asian, Islamic state that doesn't share core cultural values with Europe. Sadly Ataturk's state appears to be slowly crumbling under the weight of the god bothers.

Free trade, yes. Political union? No. The EU doesn't need or want a land border with Iraq or Syria.

Simple really. Of course very few people are willing to say it out loud.

MikeK

Slow news day.

MikeK

If you mention the colour, any colour of a mans skin, providing it's not white, then Roger will call you a racist. Pitiful really, that guy must have loads of hangups.

OldKingCole

asjohnstone said:

On the Turkey thing from the previous thread. The reason people oppose it's entry into the EU is that it is fundamentally a West Asian, Islamic state that doesn't share core cultural values with Europe. Sadly Ataturk's state appears to be slowly crumbling under the weight of the god bothers.

Free trade, yes. Political union? No. The EU doesn't need or want a land border with Iraq or Syria.

Simple really. Of course very few people are willing to say it out loud.

Looks like I'm in a minority again. That's how I feel.

MikeK

@OldKingCole: "Looks like I'm in a minority again. That's how I feel."

A growing minority, because I feel exactly the same.

Socrates

OldKingCole said:

asjohnstone said:

On the Turkey thing from the previous thread. The reason people oppose it's entry into the EU is that it is fundamentally a West Asian, Islamic state that doesn't share core cultural values with Europe. Sadly Ataturk's state appears to be slowly crumbling under the weight of the god bothers.

Free trade, yes. Political union? No. The EU doesn't need or want a land border with Iraq or Syria.

Simple really. Of course very few people are willing to say it out loud.

Looks like I'm in a minority again. That's how I feel.

If it was a developing Christian country of 73 million people, I'd still oppose entry. We've already had too much immigration. Another A8 style wave is well beyond our capacity to take.

Sunil_Prasannan

Turkey is already in NATO.

asjohnstone

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Turkey is already in NATO.

and Nato is an political union with free trade and free movement of people and goods ?

About as relevant as saying Israel is in UEFA.

Scott_P

@politicshomeuk: Labour's Angela Eagle: "I don't think that David [Miliband] leaving is somehow the end of Blairism."

john_zims

@MikeL

'A growing minority, because I feel exactly the same.'

After 13 years of anyone expressing concern about immigration being smeared as racists by lefties, it's a silent majority.

Sunil_Prasannan

asjohnstone said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Turkey is already in NATO.

and Nato is an political union with free trade and free movement of people and goods ?

About as relevant as saying Israel is in UEFA.

Calm down, dear!

NATO does have a parliamentary assembly:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Parliamentary_Assembly

Socrates

john_zims said:

@MikeL

'A growing minority, because I feel exactly the same.'

After 13 years of anyone expressing concern about immigration being smeared as racists by lefties, it's a silent majority.

In this case, it's not just lefties:

'Those who are against are playing on fears of Islam'

-- The Rt. Hon David Cameron MP

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1297906/Turkey-join-EU-says-Cameron-Those-playing-fears-Islam.html

stodge

Evening all

Recently returned from a trip to Westfield at Stratford. Some shops busy - others much less so and a couple have gone, One notable casualty is Banger Brothers in the Food Court. Aspers Casino was busy and I sought refuge near the restaurant just before a - what would you call a collection of poker players, a deck, a pack, a shuffle, a flush ? - "wave" of players came through from the card room.

The attraction of poker is a mystery to me - even more mysterious (or perhaps not) was that not a single player was a woman.

Westfield brings in the crowds - the Apple shop was predictably swamped - but the evidence of people buying is harder to find. Perhaps the shopping is done online at home and the trip to the shopping centre fulfills a different need on a Good Friday.

surbiton

Very soon, the EU will be begging Turkey to join ! A market of 73 million people and with a GDP in the top 15 in the world.

Sunil_Prasannan

stodge said:

Evening all

Recently returned from a trip to Westfield at Stratford. Some shops busy - others much less so and a couple have gone, One notable casualty is Banger Brothers in the Food Court. Aspers Casino was busy and I sought refuge near the restaurant just before a - what would you call a collection of poker players, a deck, a pack, a shuffle, a flush ? - "wave" of players came through from the card room.

The attraction of poker is a mystery to me - even more mysterious (or perhaps not) was that not a single player was a woman.

Westfield brings in the crowds - the Apple shop was predictably swamped - but the evidence of people buying is harder to find. Perhaps the shopping is done online at home and the trip to the shopping centre fulfills a different need on a Good Friday.

Snap! I went this afternoon! Noticed it was bustling. I only went to see if there was a small-scale model replica (as opposed to kit) of the Boris Bus in ModelZone and there it was. One casualty I did notice was that the Hornby shop on the top deck has gone, been replaced by a clothes shop, I think.

Charles

@redcliffe62

FPT

Noticed that you are a consultant to the egg industry - I think you live in Oz right?

Do you know any reliable sources of SPF eggs in China? Friend of mine is struggling to find one.

sam

That last thread went on for almost 12 hours...

Should have been called "The Long Good Friday. Thread."

Socrates

surbiton said:

Very soon, the EU will be begging Turkey to join ! A market of 73 million people and with a GDP in the top 15 in the world.

So do you think we should be begging Russia to join too?

john_zims

@Tim

So it was ' Labour Scum' that introduced the same regulation for the private housing sector.

Socrates

tim said:

@Socrates
Why are you so scared of the free market?

I'm not scared of the free market. I'm all up for a free trade agreement. It's mass immigration I fear.

RichardNabavi

tim said:

Bedroom tax is worthy of Stalin, says government's poverty tsar

For heaven's sake!

So we should just shrug our shoulders at a massive misallocation of taxpayers' funds on ONE MILLION rooms, at a time when the public finances have never been as bad except in the aftermath of total war?

On this subject it's hard to avoid the conclusion that Labour has gone stark raving mad - if even Frank Field is disgracing himself by this lunatic hyperbole, what hope is there?

Meanwhile, take a look at the story in the middle of the International Herald Tribune front page - possible betting implications.

stodge

Sunil_Prasannan said:

stodge said:

Evening all

Recently returned from a trip to Westfield at Stratford. Some shops busy - others much less so and a couple have gone, One notable casualty is Banger Brothers in the Food Court. Aspers Casino was busy and I sought refuge near the restaurant just before a - what would you call a collection of poker players, a deck, a pack, a shuffle, a flush ? - "wave" of players came through from the card room.

The attraction of poker is a mystery to me - even more mysterious (or perhaps not) was that not a single player was a woman.

Westfield brings in the crowds - the Apple shop was predictably swamped - but the evidence of people buying is harder to find. Perhaps the shopping is done online at home and the trip to the shopping centre fulfills a different need on a Good Friday.

Snap! I went this afternoon! Noticed it was bustling. I only went to see if there was a small-scale model replica (as opposed to kit) of the Boris Bus in ModelZone and there it was. One casualty I did notice was that the Hornby shop on the top deck has gone, been replaced by a clothes shop, I think.

Indeed, called "The Funky Fairy" I believe. Mrs Stodge is a keen observer of shop changes/closures. She thought the shop next to Kuoni had changed and always reminds me that the Grind coffee bar must be run by Kiwis.

surbiton

Socrates said:

surbiton said:

Very soon, the EU will be begging Turkey to join ! A market of 73 million people and with a GDP in the top 15 in the world.

So do you think we should be begging Russia to join too?

One day why not ? If they become a proper democracy and join NATO, all your problems will be solved.

You need not worry. They are mainly Christians and white !

Socrates

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Turkey is already in NATO.

And quite right too. I'm very keen to be trading partners and military allies with our neighbours. I just don't want political union or opening up our borders if the flow will be overwhelmingly one way.

another_richard

"Could be that Londons crime rates have fallen and educational standards have risen because of white flight."

Yet you described the London rioters of 2011 as being 'British born'. Its remarkable how you know from far off Birkenhead how all the pluses and minuses of London life can be awarded to different ethnic groups.

Surely you do realise tim that people who eulogise immigrants as better in every way than indigenous people are being equally as racist as people who regard them as inferior?

And BTW does your move from IIRC Birmingham to the 98% white Wirral not count as 'white flight' as well?

MrJones

surbiton said:

Very soon, the EU will be begging Turkey to join ! A market of 73 million people and with a GDP in the top 15 in the world.

The EU might for sure but mainly to counter-balance the growing number of anti-EU voters.

Socrates

surbiton said:

Socrates said:

surbiton said:

Very soon, the EU will be begging Turkey to join ! A market of 73 million people and with a GDP in the top 15 in the world.

So do you think we should be begging Russia to join too?

One day why not ? If they become a proper democracy and join NATO, all your problems will be solved.

You need not worry. They are mainly Christians and white !

When lefties resort to implying racism on the part of their opponents, you know they've lost the argument. I don't give a damn about people's religion or skin colour. My concern would be mass immigration from one country being three times wealthier than the other, the skill level of such immigrants, and whether those immigrants hold extremist views.

Charles

asjohnstone said:

On the Turkey thing from the previous thread. The reason people oppose it's entry into the EU is that it is fundamentally a West Asian, Islamic state that doesn't share core cultural values with Europe. Sadly Ataturk's state appears to be slowly crumbling under the weight of the god bothers.

And that's the tragedy. If Turkey had been granted membership when (Major?) first pushed for it, then perhaps that fate could have been avoided: for generations Turkey has thought of itself as a European power and a bridge to MENA (in the way that the UK connects Europe to the Anglo-Saxon community). But the French said now - and then cunningly got (Greek) Cyprus into the EU (what a great plan that was) in the knowledge they would veto any Turkish membership.

So, rejected, Turkey turned to Asia. And changed. I've seen that change manifest in my Turkish friends, like Emre Mengu-Timur, Giray Khan, as they have had to bend away from the US and Europe and to a harsher world.

[OldKingCole - you're not on your own]

Sunil_Prasannan

Socrates said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Turkey is already in NATO.

And quite right too. I'm very keen to be trading partners and military allies with our neighbours. I just don't want political union or opening up our borders if the flow will be overwhelmingly one way.

Aren't there quite a few Turks in the EU already, particularly in Germany - oh and Stoke Newington

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Turks

sam

Has a kind of "one in one out" system of immigration ever been tried? That would give some credibility to the people who like to say it is a two way street, and that British people are as free under EU law to go to work in the EU countries where immigrants to Britain have come from.

Even a "two in, one out" system would be ok. Two Romanians can live and work in Britain claiming benefits, whatever, for every one Britain who goes and does the same in Romania.

Whats the problem there?

Sunil_Prasannan

Cypriot Partition will in effect be ended if Turkey joins?

Sunil_Prasannan

Even a "two in, one out" system would be ok. Two Romanians can live and work in Britain claiming benefits, whatever, for every one tim or Ben_M who goes and does the same in Romania."

Corrected it, @sam

another_richard

I do find it fascinating how much middle class leftists hate the working class in this country.

Some possible reasons:

1) The working class are deemd to have 'failed' - with dangerous tendancies to vote Conservative if they becomee too prosperous and a lack of interest in whatever the current 'progressive' causes to be.

2) The working class are no longer deemed to be 'oppressed' or victims. Instead more fashionable victims are given prominence. This is particularly true in England - in Scotland and Wales everyone can claim to be the victim of English oppression/colonisation.

3) A preference for viewing things on global terms - Darren on the council estate isn't as needy as most of the third world so why doesn't Darren on the council estate to the decent thing and go away.

4) The working class are rivals for the country's wealth. Every pound which the working class can be deprived of is a pound which can instead be spent on middle class leftists.

5) The working class are used as scapegoats. Middle class leftists know that they are getting far more than their share of the world's wealth, the resulting guilt is transferred to the working class.

stodge

One thing I didn't realise was that EFTA has just four countries - Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Lichtenstein. Far from economically insignificant of course and were Turkey and the UK (perhaps) to join not politically insignificant either.

another_richard

Charles

I suspect that change in Turkey was inevitable after the breakup on the Soviet Union led to the creation of new 'Turkish' nations in the Caucusus and Central Asia.

Middle Eastern turmoil and Europe's relative decline in the world added to the eastern pull on Turkey.

It was perhaps unfortunate for Turkey that they didn't lose their Kurdish provinces in 1919, a more coastal Turkey would have been a more European, wealthier, peaceful and more advanced Turkey.

Socrates

Richard Nabavi - how do you feel about the Conservatives' policy of supporting, nay, "fighting" for Turkey's EU membership?

Socrates

Charles said:

asjohnstone said:

On the Turkey thing from the previous thread. The reason people oppose it's entry into the EU is that it is fundamentally a West Asian, Islamic state that doesn't share core cultural values with Europe. Sadly Ataturk's state appears to be slowly crumbling under the weight of the god bothers.

And that's the tragedy. If Turkey had been granted membership when (Major?) first pushed for it, then perhaps that fate could have been avoided: for generations Turkey has thought of itself as a European power and a bridge to MENA (in the way that the UK connects Europe to the Anglo-Saxon community). But the French said now - and then cunningly got (Greek) Cyprus into the EU (what a great plan that was) in the knowledge they would veto any Turkish membership.

So, rejected, Turkey turned to Asia. And changed. I've seen that change manifest in my Turkish friends, like Emre Mengu-Timur, Giray Khan, as they have had to bend away from the US and Europe and to a harsher world.

[OldKingCole - you're not on your own]

This is a bit crazy. Turkey is not, and has never been, a democratic country. Why on Earth should they have been let in during the 1990s? And unless you support uncontrolled immigration of hundreds of thousands from central Anatolia, it's a ridiculous policy.

RichardNabavi

@Socrates - I oppose it, at least until we've restored the EU back to what it should be, a free-trade area.

Socrates

Poland is trying to join the Euro:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1ea63fc-9636-11e2-9ab2-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/global-economy/feed//product#axzz2Oy7vQZRy

It's like moths to a flame, isn't it?

Socrates

RichardNabavi said:

@Socrates - I oppose it, at least until we've restored the EU back to what it should be, a free-trade area.

Do you believe there's any possibility at all of the EU ending free movement of labour, one of it's founding principles?

Socrates

I'm reminded of this great article by Matt Yglesias:

http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/11/05/362083/the-global-ruling-class/?mobile=nc

RichardNabavi

@Socrates - No.

The original reason why some Major-era Conservatives were quite keen on expansion was that they hoped that wider = shallower. That always struck me as a bit naive.

Schards

Wow, head of the NUT says "morale is low", colour me stunned. Has there ever been any point in history under any government when the NUT hasn't been bleating incessently about the dreadful lot of the teacher? Give it rest FFS

surbiton

So, rejected, Turkey turned to Asia. And changed. I've seen that change manifest in my Turkish friends, like Emre Mengu-Timur, Giray Khan, as they have had to bend away from the US and Europe and to a harsher world.

Charles:

Can you really blame Turkey for that ?

TwistedFireStopper

I'm finding that the "Bedroom Tax" causes me conflicting emotions. As a tax payer, taking home less cash than the much vaunted Benefits Cap, I can see its merits, and can see the point behind it.

On the other hand, having been born and bred in the same council house that my parents only left once they retired and moved into a flat, I understand why it's creating a lot of anger. I feel its the right policy, at the wrong time, and with out enough resources.
I know a middle aged woman in our village, lives in a 2 bed council flat, her daughter moved out a year ago. The woman was made redundant a few months ago, and has been working part time in a local cafe. She's on housing benefit, but stands to lose about 60 quid a month because of her empty second bedroom. That's a fair chunk of money, plus, there's nowhere for her to move to, that's not in the local sink areas, even if she wanted to move.

There's no easy answer, but, I think it's the wrong time.

another_richard

"It's like moths to a flame, isn't it?"

It is to the various political overclasses around Europe.

Their interests often being different to their people's interests.

Remember the Hungarian prime minister filmed laughing with Eurocrats at how he had broken the promises he had made to the Hungarian people? It was revealing that he thought the promises he had made to the Eurocrats to be more important than the promises he had made to his voters.

surbiton

TwistedFireStopper said:

I'm finding that the "Bedroom Tax" causes me conflicting emotions. As a tax payer, taking home less cash than the much vaunted Benefits Cap, I can see its merits, and can see the point behind it.

On the other hand, having been born and bred in the same council house that my parents only left once they retired and moved into a flat, I understand why it's creating a lot of anger. I feel its the right policy, at the wrong time, and with out enough resources.
I know a middle aged woman in our village, lives in a 2 bed council flat, her daughter moved out a year ago. The woman was made redundant a few months ago, and has been working part time in a local cafe. She's on housing benefit, but stands to lose about 60 quid a month because of her empty second bedroom. That's a fair chunk of money, plus, there's nowhere for her to move to, that's not in the local sink areas, even if she wanted to move.

There's no easy answer, but, I think it's the wrong time.

Rename it the "New Poll Tax". It will be just as popular.

surbiton

RichardNabavi said:

@Socrates - No.

The original reason why some Major-era Conservatives were quite keen on expansion was that they hoped that wider = shallower. That always struck me as a bit naive.

Collectors item: Nabavi [ faintly ] criticises a Conservative government.

AndreaParma_82

@another-richard

In another place we discussed the % of public employment by constituency. I suggested that some areas may have a low share because of a considerable presence of Asians who may not be so much present among public employees.

I can't find public employment stats by ethnicity. However, I have seen them by Industry

Overall, in UK, 30.2% of the White working population is in public admin, education and health. Among Pakistani/Bangladeshis it's 22.7% while among Blacks it is 43.1%

surbiton

FT front page: UK Banks £25bn short.

Well, 489 buggers @ Barclays. 489 million. Well, that's a start. Very soon we'll get the £26 bn.

RichardNabavi

@tim - They could buy Cyprus and get free membership thrown in, thereby killing several birds with one stone.

Grandiose

@RichardNabavi Didn't they try that before? Cough, cough.

Sunil_Prasannan

Grandiose said:

@RichardNabavi Didn't they try that before? Cough, cough.

You mean 1974? They only managed to take over half of the Island!

Roger

@surbiton "Collectors item: Nabavi [ faintly ] criticises a Conservative government."

We knew that already. He only described their chancellor as NEAR-perfect

AndreaParma_82

Turkey has withdrawn from Eurovision Song Contest this year. Shameful.

Sunil_Prasannan

Will Italy be entering Eurovision?

Roger

@AnotherRichard. From a very amusing list I picked this out as the funniest. You're one of the few genuinely funny class warriors left on this site. Don't lose the chip whatever you do.


"4) The working class are rivals for the country's wealth. Every pound which the working class can be deprived of is a pound which can instead be spent on middle class leftists."

AndreaParma_82

Sunil, yes. And we take San Marino with us again.

foxinsoxuk

If Turkey joins the EU, then there will have to be changes there. They would be obligated to join the Euro, and also open up their own country to migration from the EU. In 1918 the ottoman empire was 20% christian, but almost all of those minorities were expelled. Turkey would have to get used to substantial ethnic minorities again, and accord them equal rights, while many of their own brightest and best move abroad. I struggle to see what is in it for them, bearing in mind that they have a free trade agreement already.

AndyJS

AndreaParma_82 said:

Turkey has withdrawn from Eurovision Song Contest this year. Shameful.

Are they making some kind of protest against something?

JamesKelly

"And we take San Marino with us again."

San Marino might just qualify for the final this time.

AndreaParma_82

AndyJS said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Turkey has withdrawn from Eurovision Song Contest this year. Shameful.

Are they making some kind of protest against something?

Against the juries and the Big 5 being direct finalists. Apparently

AndyJS

A lot of Conservatives will be furious to learn that IDS has given up trying to cut the benefit bill according to this report:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9962079/Iain-Duncan-Smith-weve-given-up-trying-to-cut-benefits.html

"Iain Duncan Smith has admitted that he is no longer seeking to cut Britain’s benefits bill and is simply “managing” the increase in handouts."

AndreaParma_82

JamesKelly said:

"."

San Marino might just qualify for the final this time.

Let's hope. Valentina deserved it after being obliged to sing that crap last year.

Charles

foxinsoxuk said:

If Turkey joins the EU, then there will have to be changes there. They would be obligated to join the Euro, and also open up their own country to migration from the EU. In 1918 the ottoman empire was 20% christian, but almost all of those minorities were expelled. Turkey would have to get used to substantial ethnic minorities again, and accord them equal rights, while many of their own brightest and best move abroad. I struggle to see what is in it for them, bearing in mind that they have a free trade agreement already.

After how the Greeks-in-Turkey behaved during the breakup of the Ottomon Empire I have some sympathy for the Turks on this.

Tim_B

You might remember some months ago last year the Democrats were all for federal tax reform, big time, then all of a sudden they went silent.

There was a reason. The Republicans suggested removing the major deductions reducing the federal tax inflows. This created a problem, as the largest single deduction, larger than all others combined, is the deduction of state income taxes from federal taxes. This presents a problem for Democrats, as the high tax states are heavily Democratic, such as MA, NY and CA.

Let's take California as an example for 2013 (NOT 2012, for which tax filing is current). Let's assume a married couple earning jointly $200k per year, not too good in the Golden State.

Your marginal federal tax rate is 33%, state tax rate is 9.3%. That's over 42%. We have not yet included county, local or city taxes.

For couples jointly earning $450k and up, your federal tax rate is 39.6%. CA state tax will take a further 9.3%. You are perilously close to 50%. If you have any capital gains or dividend income, and at that rate of income you probably do, that is subject to a further 3.8% tax for Obamacare, There is a further 0.9% Obamacare tax on wages for high income individuals. So at that level of income, your marginal tax rate is 53.6%. Again, this does not include county, local and municipal taxes.

If you can deduct the (at least) 14% in state taxes from your 39.6% federal taxes, this is much more palatable. If you cannot, this is punitive.

There is an interesting experiment currently under way in this country. President Obama constantly calls for more federal spending, an infrastructure bank, and methods for choosing projects 'based on merit', funded by more regulation and higher taxes, and done by union workers.

Blue states - the north east plus California, Minnesota, and Illinois, are increasing taxes on the wealthy and businesses, to fund government 'investments', all of which, like TARP, have to be done by union personnel. They are following the Obama line exactly.

Red states, by contrast, are reducing regulation, and reducing tax rates, while also offering 'right to work' laws that encourage businesses to come and set up there.

Census data is pretty clear now - you can see the trend of people voting with their feet. The south and the sunbelt are growing, while the blue states are shrinking - Detroit is the most extreme example of long term flight to the sun belt.

Looking at the census data, the 10 fastest growing metro areas last year included Austin, Las Vegas, Raleigh, Phoenix, Charlotte, Dallas and San Antonio. Atlanta didn't do too badly either.

What about the population losers? They included Buffalo, Rochester, Providence, and Cleveland. All in blue states.

Some red states - Florida, Texas and Tennessee - already have no state income tax. Others like Louisiana and North Carolina, are moving ahead with plans to eliminate the state income tax.

Kansas and Oklahoma are looking to replace their state income tax with sales taxes and energy extraction taxes.

It's going to be an interesting 2-4 years to see which approach works better.

Chris_A

At long last Betfair has a Boat Race winning time market. It's a reasonable tide and wind not forecast to be too bad either. There is a fair amount of land water but that had been decreasing quite nicely over the last few days, and it's forecast to be dry. Additionally Oxford have a good crew. All in all I'd predict something like low 16:50s so the almost 7/2 you can get on under 17 minutes seems absolutely excellent value to me. If you wish you can hedge 17 to 17:59 at 5/4. There is no way that I can see it being more than 18 mins unless the forecast is plain wrong. Admittedly I would have said last year that there was no way I could have seen a restart after a swimmer, so assess the risks for yourselves.

perdix

@AndyJS - IDS's comment about the welfare bill is old news reported a while ago. The Daily Ukipgraph (Nimbygraph) is reporting it as if it is a major announcement by IDS, normal misrepresentation by that paper.

Pulpstar

I don't know why I looked at those front pages ! Abu Qatada & his beard on the express, a bedroom tax that isn't, England footballers failing, tit ops on the NHS, Ant & Dec doing something, teachers whining and whinging. And shock horror a month where the av temp is near to 0 has DOUBLE energy bills than the same month which was ~ 15 or so last year. Funny that.

It reminds me why I don't buy any papers, or pay for any online news outlets - Winds me up 'lorra em !!

Chris_A

Sorry I've mopped up all there was at 5/4 for 17-17:59, but probably worthwhile keeping an eye on the market.

sam

These tweets put it quite nicely... I'm sure he would argue with one or two on here...

Alistair McDowall (@PoliticAli_UK)
29/03/2013 20:22
@UKIP_ete These self appointed 'spokespeople for immigrants' make me sick. Immigrants are not a homogenous mass.

Alistair McDowall (@PoliticAli_UK)
29/03/2013 20:33
Only a real racist would believe that immigrants in entirety are so helpless that they need a white lefty champion to protect them.

Download the official Twitter app here

foxinsoxuk

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

If Turkey joins the EU, then there will have to be changes there. They would be obligated to join the Euro, and also open up their own country to migration from the EU. In 1918 the ottoman empire was 20% christian, but almost all of those minorities were expelled. Turkey would have to get used to substantial ethnic minorities again, and accord them equal rights, while many of their own brightest and best move abroad. I struggle to see what is in it for them, bearing in mind that they have a free trade agreement already.

After how the Greeks-in-Turkey behaved during the breakup of the Ottomon Empire I have some sympathy for the Turks on this.

Sure, the Greeks did behave badly in 1921-2, largely at the instigation of the UK government of the time, though not as bad as the Turks did with the Armenians. Part of EU membership would require equal rights for religious and ethnic minorities in Turkey. That will require some quite different policies on their part. I suspect that their biggest minority would be retired Germans buying up the best bits if the coast.

My point is that it would not just be the EU that would change with Turkish accession, but that Turkey would change also, and possibly not in a way that Turks would like.

MrJones

AndyJS said:

A lot of Conservatives will be furious to learn that IDS has given up trying to cut the benefit bill according to this report:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9962079/Iain-Duncan-Smith-weve-given-up-trying-to-cut-benefits.html

"Iain Duncan Smith has admitted that he is no longer seeking to cut Britain’s benefits bill and is simply “managing” the increase in handouts."

You can't cut the benefit bill without stopping immigration.

If you have a welfare system then importing people to drive down wages just shifts part of the wage bill onto welfare. Employers get to pay less of their total wage bill while the taxpayers pay the rest.

The value of the universal system - if it worked - would only kick in if / when we had a political class that wasn't hell-bent on creating a plantation economy.

RodCrosby

North Korea "declares war" on South Korea

redcliffe62

Charles said:

@redcliffe62

FPT

Noticed that you are a consultant to the egg industry - I think you live in Oz right?

Do you know any reliable sources of SPF eggs in China? Friend of mine is struggling to find one.

Charles, sorry I do not know of any SPF suppliers in China. We would be happy to supply via airfreight in temp controlled conditions of course. We have been looking at exporting to Indonesia recently. Modestly I state we have the highest quality controlled systems for eggs used in vaccines in Oz.

If you have any interest in sourcing from Oz then I will give you the MD's details under cover via Mike.

Socrates

Tim_B said:

You might remember some months ago last year the Democrats were all for federal tax reform, big time, then all of a sudden they went silent.

There was a reason. The Republicans suggested removing the major deductions reducing the federal tax inflows. This created a problem, as the largest single deduction, larger than all others combined, is the deduction of state income taxes from federal taxes. This presents a problem for Democrats, as the high tax states are heavily Democratic, such as MA, NY and CA.

They haven't gone quiet on it at all. It's still on the table. But Republicans refuse to do it unless it also cuts overall rates. Which shows how rubbish their deficit hawk line is.

edmundintokyo

RodCrosby said:

North Korea "declares war" on South Korea

Oddly, they appear to be in a state of unrequited war.

Tim_B

Socrates said:

Tim_B said:

You might remember some months ago last year the Democrats were all for federal tax reform, big time, then all of a sudden they went silent.

There was a reason. The Republicans suggested removing the major deductions reducing the federal tax inflows. This created a problem, as the largest single deduction, larger than all others combined, is the deduction of state income taxes from federal taxes. This presents a problem for Democrats, as the high tax states are heavily Democratic, such as MA, NY and CA.

They haven't gone quiet on it at all. It's still on the table. But Republicans refuse to do it unless it also cuts overall rates. Which shows how rubbish their deficit hawk line is.

Well done, Socrates. I knew you wouldn't disappoint me.

Criticize, belittle, grand stand - yet empty.

Your zero sum game is the problem. Cutting rates generates economic growth - look at blue vs red states.

redcliffe62

Charles said:

@redcliffe62

FPT

Noticed that you are a consultant to the egg industry - I think you live in Oz right?

Do you know any reliable sources of SPF eggs in China? Friend of mine is struggling to find one.

Charles, I have sent some contact details via Mike regarding a possible solution for eggs and vaccines.

another_richard

"You're one of the few genuinely funny class warriors left on this site. Don't lose the chip whatever you do."

Have you ever thought of mentioning the same to tim?

Or of doing something about the Thatcher hatred plank on your own shoulder?

But do keep posting here Roger, the thoughts of a champagne socalist who suffers more from self-importance than self-awareness are always amusing even if rarely educational.

NickPalmer

edmundintokyo said:

RodCrosby said:

North Korea "declares war" on South Korea

Oddly, they appear to be in a state of unrequited war.

Lol yes. When I was in Seoul last week I asked a few people if they were worried. They said nah, they're always going on like that.

Socrates

Tim_B said:

Socrates said:

Tim_B said:

You might remember some months ago last year the Democrats were all for federal tax reform, big time, then all of a sudden they went silent.

There was a reason. The Republicans suggested removing the major deductions reducing the federal tax inflows. This created a problem, as the largest single deduction, larger than all others combined, is the deduction of state income taxes from federal taxes. This presents a problem for Democrats, as the high tax states are heavily Democratic, such as MA, NY and CA.

They haven't gone quiet on it at all. It's still on the table. But Republicans refuse to do it unless it also cuts overall rates. Which shows how rubbish their deficit hawk line is.

Well done, Socrates. I knew you wouldn't disappoint me.

Criticize, belittle, grand stand - yet empty.

Your zero sum game is the problem. Cutting rates generates economic growth - look at blue vs red states.

What do you mean by my zero sum game? Cutting rates at this sort of low level does not generate economic growth: check out the Clinton years versus the Bush years. As for blue states vs red states. Why don't we see which generate most economic output?

Top five: Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Virginia
Bottom five: Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Idaho

Poor red states slightly closing the gap with rich blue states really doesn't say much.

edmundintokyo

Socrates said:

Poor red states slightly closing the gap with rich blue states really doesn't say much.

Especially as the key drivers of recent red state overperformance seem to be fossil fuel deposits, which presumably don't depend on income tax rates, and government benefits.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2012-09-26/red-blue-states-income-economy/57846600/1

asjohnstone

Is anyone taking this North Korea stuff remotely seriously ? I'm not.

It's ridiculous comic posturing; If it came to a shooting war, they'd get their arses handed to them on a plate in 48 hours. Surely they must know this.

China isn't going to come to their aid. Overstretched though it may be, the US military would crush DPRK with ease.

redcliffe62

asjohnstone said:

Is anyone taking this North Korea stuff remotely seriously ? I'm not.

It's ridiculous comic posturing; If it came to a shooting war, they'd get their arses handed to them on a plate in 48 hours. Surely they must know this.

China isn't going to come to their aid. Overstretched though it may be, the US military would crush DPRK with ease.

It may be posturing but i am now reconsidering sending my Korean speaking daughter to Seoul to go to university for a year studying music and drama as was planned for 2014.