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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dan Jarvis – the ex-army officer who is betting favourite t

SystemSystem Posts: 12,220
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dan Jarvis – the ex-army officer who is betting favourite to succeed Mr. Corbyn

Latest next LAB leader odds from Bet365 http://t.co/nGjI2GQUaV
Ex-army officer, Dan Jarvis, the favourite pic.twitter.com/H5N871x2GE

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Comments

  • Oh for the badger....
  • elsewhere can I flag the new new order album came out on friday - so far so good!!!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited September 2015
    It's difficult to see anyone who isn't left leaning winning the next Labour leadership contest. Jarvis won't have had any shadow cabinet experience either, which isn't ideal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    If Corbyn leads Labour into the 2020 general election and loses then Dan Jarvis and Chuka Umunna and Stella Creasy would be the top contendors to succeed him. If Corbyn is deposed before then, perhaps after coming third in a by-election behind UKIP, then Hilary Benn is the most likely replacement
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Better than any the Tories have lined up.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    How capable is Jarvis in person? He might be great, but it seems a little bit like Labour despairers are betting entirely on his biography and how he looks on paper. There are lessons to be learnt there if we think of flops like Rick Perry, Fred Thompson and Scott Walker.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Jonathan

    'Better than any the Tories have lined up.'


    Why ?
  • Best price is on Betfair, 7.8 (from the buyer's perspective).

    Tempted to lay the favourite on this one, I think a change of leader is 5 years away.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    In a very British coup?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited September 2015
    So what odds that there's a defection to be presented at the Tory conference?

    Mark Reckless doesn't count. He'll have got lost looking for Wales.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    edited September 2015
    Artist said:

    It's difficult to see anyone who isn't left leaning winning the next Labour leadership contest. Jarvis won't have had any shadow cabinet experience either, which isn't ideal.

    Which is why Hilary Benn is most likely, his surname immunises him from the Left. Jarvis is best waiting until 2020 post a defeat, Benn's job would be to do a Michael Howard and save the furniture
  • If the only thing Dan Jervis has going for him is that he is an ex army officer, if this is going to be his regular prefix, then he is going to solve nothing for Labour.
    Admittedly anyone who can stand upright, walk and chew gum at the same time will be an improvement on the current lot.
    Being a good bad or indifferent soldier has no bearing on politics whatsoever.
  • I've placed a bet on this market today.

    I think I'll write a thread on it in due course.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Superb stuff http://on.ft.com/1MBsSGz
    When a Corbynite says there is more to politics than winning elections, they tacitly concede that Britain is tolerable as it is, at least for them. If it were not, the acquisition of power would be the alpha and omega of their cause. Press them on their lacerating dislike for Tony Blair and they say his leadership of the Labour party made them feel scuzzy. Politics, this implies, is there to make activists feel good about themselves. Everything comes back to feeling; everything comes back to the self.

    A Corbyn rally is not a band of desperate workers fighting to improve their circumstances, it is a communion of comfortable people working their way up Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have physical health and security; they crave belonging and self-actualisation. They are in politics for the dopamine squirt that comes with total belief and immersion in like-minded company.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    EPG said:

    In a very British coup?

    Just picked that up, will be watching it on the tram tomorrow at this rate.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    It's hard to see the argument for Jarvis over Clive Lewis, who has Jarvis's USP plus on top of that is on the Left (but without Corbyn's baggage of years of dodgy statements).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Given the uncertainties, the timescale, the death spiral Labour is currently in and the blank sheet that Jarvis currently is these are truly terrible odds. 20/1 would be quite mean in my book.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    When a Corbynite says there is more to politics than winning elections, they tacitly concede that Britain is tolerable as it is, at least for them. If it were not, the acquisition of power would be the alpha and omega of their cause. .
    I have often felt this, I must say. If someone tells me the Tories are baby eaters, but also that they don't want to do any sort of compromise in order to win an election - and assuming they recognise that is probably necessary in order to win - then that tells me they are actually ok with a little bit of baby eating, that the Tories winning is better than a non-perfect Labour winning, in which case it cannot be that bad. It's self defeating rhetoric.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994
    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:


    When a Corbynite says there is more to politics than winning elections, they tacitly concede that Britain is tolerable as it is, at least for them. If it were not, the acquisition of power would be the alpha and omega of their cause. .
    I have often felt this, I must say. If someone tells me the Tories are baby eaters, but also that they don't want to do any sort of compromise in order to win an election - and assuming they recognise that is probably necessary in order to win - then that tells me they are actually ok with a little bit of baby eating, that the Tories winning is better than a non-perfect Labour winning, in which case it cannot be that bad. It's self defeating rhetoric.


    Or that they don't want to exchange baby-eaters wearing blue rosettes for baby-eaters wearing red rosettes (as they see it, rightly or wrongly).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.cityam.com/225235/west-s-failed-syria-policy-why-it-s-time-do-nothing

    When queries were made as to how many “moderate” Syrian rebels were now in the field as a result of the new $500m US training programme, the general gulped, shifted uncomfortably in his seat, and devastatingly answered “four or five.”

    That is the pathetic state of the White House’s strategy on Syria.
    ==========

    The failour of the Obama middle east strategy writ large.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Danny565 said:

    It's hard to see the argument for Jarvis over Clive Lewis, who has Jarvis's USP plus on top of that is on the Left (but without Corbyn's baggage of years of dodgy statements).

    I still think Chuka would be the best bet if he decides to go for it, but that would only be post a 2020 defeat, until then Hilary Benn is the only real alternative
  • HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    The current membership is a humdinger lot difference to the membership of the 1940's.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:


    When a Corbynite says there is more to politics than winning elections, they tacitly concede that Britain is tolerable as it is, at least for them. If it were not, the acquisition of power would be the alpha and omega of their cause. .
    I have often felt this, I must say. If someone tells me the Tories are baby eaters, but also that they don't want to do any sort of compromise in order to win an election - and assuming they recognise that is probably necessary in order to win - then that tells me they are actually ok with a little bit of baby eating, that the Tories winning is better than a non-perfect Labour winning, in which case it cannot be that bad. It's self defeating rhetoric.
    Or that they don't want to exchange baby-eaters wearing blue rosettes for baby-eaters wearing red rosettes (as they see it, rightly or wrongly).

    If they think an imperfect Labour government is truly no different than the evil Tories, then they would have left Labour long ago when the baby-eaters were in the ascendancy for 15 years. No, that does not seem credible to me - I could understand that belief, but could man of the people, man of principle, Jeremy Corbyn, have remained in Labour if they were not merely misguided and misdirected, but no different to the Tories? Clearly they think Labour were better, even if the ones at the top and many policies were terrible, in which case it should be preferable to evil Tories.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    MikeK,

    I've heard arguments that Obama supplied arms and training to the rebels to insulate himself from the charge that he was doing nothing and would have to commit ground troops. If you support doing nothing, as that article does, he's certainly closer to that than an invasion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's hard to see the argument for Jarvis over Clive Lewis, who has Jarvis's USP plus on top of that is on the Left (but without Corbyn's baggage of years of dodgy statements).

    I still think Chuka would be the best bet if he decides to go for it, but that would only be post a 2020 defeat, until then Hilary Benn is the only real alternative
    I agree about Benn, not sure about Chuka.

    The next election is going to be about Labour remaining a major and vaguely unified party. Benn is probably the only one who could hope to succeed in stopping them from breaking up. And he won't find it easy.
  • Superb stuff http://on.ft.com/1MBsSGz

    When a Corbynite says there is more to politics than winning elections, they tacitly concede that Britain is tolerable as it is, at least for them. If it were not, the acquisition of power would be the alpha and omega of their cause. Press them on their lacerating dislike for Tony Blair and they say his leadership of the Labour party made them feel scuzzy. Politics, this implies, is there to make activists feel good about themselves. Everything comes back to feeling; everything comes back to the self.

    A Corbyn rally is not a band of desperate workers fighting to improve their circumstances, it is a communion of comfortable people working their way up Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have physical health and security; they crave belonging and self-actualisation. They are in politics for the dopamine squirt that comes with total belief and immersion in like-minded company.
    They are a bunch of Mr Angrys
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994
    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Chuka is approaching Blair-levels of junk status with your average activist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    The current membership is a humdinger lot difference to the membership of the 1940's.

    I am not so sure and Attlee was the most leftwing PM we have probably ever had. It is policies and personality which will be key not background
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's hard to see the argument for Jarvis over Clive Lewis, who has Jarvis's USP plus on top of that is on the Left (but without Corbyn's baggage of years of dodgy statements).

    I still think Chuka would be the best bet if he decides to go for it, but that would only be post a 2020 defeat, until then Hilary Benn is the only real alternative
    I agree about Benn, not sure about Chuka.

    The next election is going to be about Labour remaining a major and vaguely unified party. Benn is probably the only one who could hope to succeed in stopping them from breaking up. And he won't find it easy.
    Indeed, he would be the Michael Howard figure, seen as from the left as Howard was of the right and thus acceptable enough to the membership who elected Corbyn/IDS, while also having significant Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet experience and being acceptable enough to most of the moderates. He could also allow younger talent and future leadership prospects to prosper as Howard did
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Bah, this is going to affect the resale value of my car isn't it?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34377443
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
  • MikeK said:

    http://www.cityam.com/225235/west-s-failed-syria-policy-why-it-s-time-do-nothing

    When queries were made as to how many “moderate” Syrian rebels were now in the field as a result of the new $500m US training programme, the general gulped, shifted uncomfortably in his seat, and devastatingly answered “four or five.”

    That is the pathetic state of the White House’s strategy on Syria.
    ==========

    The failour of the Obama middle east strategy writ large.

    One of the smears against Cameron, making use of alleged comments by a general,e was that he was more in favour of bombing rather than investing some eye watering sum on training some100,000 rebels.
    America's efforts have not been very good and the harsh reality is that it will take 2 years to train a proper army and if it has no will to fight it is money and time wasted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited September 2015
    Finally a silly 'which x are you?' quiz where I didn't get a terrible answer (a non-emperor in an 'which emperor are you' quiz, honestly).

    Which Member of the UN Security Council are you?

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/hayesbrown/mostly-model-un-nerds-will-take-this-quiz?utm_term=.gtzQVveZD#.vsbPD2VW9

    I got the UK.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I'm disappointed Keith Vaz isn't in that list.

    I think him as leader would be even funnier than Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Danny565 said:

    Chuka is approaching Blair-levels of junk status with your average activist.

    Yes, well as the Tories eventually discovered once you get to 3 defeats the activists start to look for a winner rather than the someone who passes an ideological litmus test
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2015
    It's interesting how Hilary Benn's stock has risen so much in recent months - he was relegated to third-tier jobs in the last shadow cabinet, and he was not even mentioned once in the "next leader" discussions in May.

    I agree he is the obvious choice for a "Michael Howard" type leader if one is needed, though. He's dull but he's one of the few Labour people who just has the indefinable "gravitas".
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Cyclefree said:

    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    antifrank said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    The potential for water on Mars is very significant news.

    It is arguably the worst news that mankind has ever had.
    Why?
    Because it reduces the chance the Great Filter is behind us.
    Ice Warriors? The Great Filter?

    Polite question to you and Marquee Mark: What the hell are you talking about?
    The more we explore space, the more we find out that, in all likelihood, there are hundreds of millions of Earth-like planets in our galaxy capable of sustaining life. And most of those planets are far, far older than this one. So why haven't we found any evidence of even a single advanced civilization sending out signals into the cosmos?

    One plausible explanation is that despite the number of good planets out there, such advanced societies are very rare. In the path from Earth-like planet->conditions for life->simple life->complex life->civilization->advanced civilization->space-faring civilization there is a some sort of filter that screens out most planets from developing such a thing.

    Maybe the formation of self-replicating organisms is actually an incredibly rare event despite the number of worlds. Maybe life is common place in the galaxy, but it is an evolutionary freak event for it to become advanced enough to create societies. Maybe advanced societies discover some secret to particle physics that creates weapons that inevitably cause them to wipe themselves out. Somewhere along the line this Great Filter exists, that knocks out most habitable planets from fulfilling their potential.

    If we're lucky, this Great Filter lies behind us. We've already passed it and there are few like us in the galaxy. If we're unlucky, this Great Filter is in front of us, and we're probably doomed as a species.

    The more we learn that the various steps along the chain behind us are actually common (e.g. that planets often have liquid water), the less likely the Great Filter is behind us and the more likely it's in front of us and will kill us all at some point. Thus the discovery of water on Mars could be the worst news we've ever found out as a species.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040

    MikeK said:

    http://www.cityam.com/225235/west-s-failed-syria-policy-why-it-s-time-do-nothing

    When queries were made as to how many “moderate” Syrian rebels were now in the field as a result of the new $500m US training programme, the general gulped, shifted uncomfortably in his seat, and devastatingly answered “four or five.”

    That is the pathetic state of the White House’s strategy on Syria.
    ==========

    The failour of the Obama middle east strategy writ large.

    One of the smears against Cameron, making use of alleged comments by a general,e was that he was more in favour of bombing rather than investing some eye watering sum on training some100,000 rebels.
    America's efforts have not been very good and the harsh reality is that it will take 2 years to train a proper army and if it has no will to fight it is money and time wasted.
    The money wasted training the Iraqi army is truly eye watering. And then the ones that are really there and not just a name to allow an officer to pocket the wages get flattened by a bunch of lunatics on beaten up old trucks and run away.

    Tbh, if we had spent half the money on a modern equivalent of the Foreign Legion with retired ex soldiers we would be in a vastly better position.
  • Corbyn supporters seem to believe that a below par labour govt would be worse than the current Tory govt. If they didn't, they would give a higher priority to being electable.

    A tremendous tribute to DC. Oddly, it will make his govt poorer, not better.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Chuka is approaching Blair-levels of junk status with your average activist.

    Yes, well as the Tories eventually discovered once you get to 3 defeats the activists start to look for a winner rather than the someone who passes an ideological litmus test
    That is predicated on the dubious assumption that Chuka is a winner :p
  • A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    We're not talking "most voters". We are talking the fricking Labour Party membership. You know, the one that voted 60% for Corbyn....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    kle4 said:

    Finally a silly 'which x are you?' quiz where I didn't get a terrible answer (a non-emperor in an 'which emperor are you' quiz, honestly).

    Which Member of the UN Security Council are you?

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/hayesbrown/mostly-model-un-nerds-will-take-this-quiz?utm_term=.gtzQVveZD#.vsbPD2VW9

    I got the UK.

    So did I. Quite surprising since it is so apparently random.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994
    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    antifrank said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    The potential for water on Mars is very significant news.

    It is arguably the worst news that mankind has ever had.
    Why?
    Because it reduces the chance the Great Filter is behind us.
    Ice Warriors? The Great Filter?

    Polite question to you and Marquee Mark: What the hell are you talking about?
    The more we explore space, the more we find out that, in all likelihood, there are hundreds of millions of Earth-like planets in our galaxy capable of sustaining life. And most of those planets are far, far older than this one. So why haven't we found any evidence of even a single advanced civilization sending out signals into the cosmos?

    One plausible explanation is that despite the number of good planets out there, such advanced societies are very rare. In the path from Earth-like planet->conditions for life->simple life->complex life->civilization->advanced civilization->space-faring civilization there is a some sort of filter that screens out most planets from developing such a thing.

    Maybe the formation of self-replicating organisms is actually an incredibly rare event despite the number of worlds. Maybe life is common place in the galaxy, but it is an evolutionary freak event for it to become advanced enough to create societies. Maybe advanced societies discover some secret to particle physics that creates weapons that inevitably cause them to wipe themselves out. Somewhere along the line this Great Filter exists, that knocks out most habitable planets from fulfilling their potential.

    If we're lucky, this Great Filter lies behind us. We've already passed it and there are few like us in the galaxy. If we're unlucky, this Great Filter is in front of us, and we're probably doomed as a species.

    The more we learn that the various steps along the chain behind us are actually common (e.g. that planets often have liquid water), the less likely the Great Filter is behind us and the more likely it's in front of us and will kill us all at some point. Thus the discovery of water on Mars could be the worst news we've ever found out as a species.
    How monstrous a waste of a universe it would be, to just have us pootling about on one bit of rock in an ever so ordinary part of it.
  • kle4 said:


    When a Corbynite says there is more to politics than winning elections, they tacitly concede that Britain is tolerable as it is, at least for them. If it were not, the acquisition of power would be the alpha and omega of their cause. .
    I have often felt this, I must say. If someone tells me the Tories are baby eaters, but also that they don't want to do any sort of compromise in order to win an election - and assuming they recognise that is probably necessary in order to win - then that tells me they are actually ok with a little bit of baby eating, that the Tories winning is better than a non-perfect Labour winning, in which case it cannot be that bad. It's self defeating rhetoric.


    Why are we upset about this? We ARE the electorate. It's like certain of the less intelligent amongst us complaining when an MP frequently defies the whip and calling them 'serially disloyal' - this is a problem for party whips and leaders, it's GOOD for the actual people who elected the MP. A party being true to what it believes is a GOOD thing. If that doesn't result in a majority, what's the actual problem?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Chuka is approaching Blair-levels of junk status with your average activist.

    Yes, well as the Tories eventually discovered once you get to 3 defeats the activists start to look for a winner rather than the someone who passes an ideological litmus test
    That is predicated on the dubious assumption that Chuka is a winner :p
    A yougov survey on 17th May of all voters had Umunna on 17%, Burnham 14%, Cooper 8%, Hunt 3%, Kendall 2%, Eagle 1%, Creasey 1%.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-burnham-would-make-the-best-labour-leader-but-chuka-umunna-would-have-won-party-the-next-10255977.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    We're not talking "most voters". We are talking the fricking Labour Party membership. You know, the one that voted 60% for Corbyn....
    So what, the Tory membership voted 60% for IDS, 4 years later they voted 60% for Cameron after yet another defeat on a rightwing platform
  • If Dan Jarvis wasn't an ex army officer would anyone be talking about him ?

    Has he said or done anything since becoming a Labour MP which justifies all the ramping ?

    I can remember when Eric Joyce was bigged up as a possible future Labour leader because he was an ex army officer as well.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    Corbyn supporters seem to believe that a below par labour govt would be worse than the current Tory govt. If they didn't, they would give a higher priority to being electable.

    A tremendous tribute to DC. Oddly, it will make his govt poorer, not better.

    Is this argument's logical conclusion that Labour should be just as conservative as the Conservatives, then take one step left?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Danny565 said:

    It's interesting how Hilary Benn's stock has risen so much in recent months - he was relegated to third-tier jobs in the last shadow cabinet, and he was not even mentioned once in the "next leader" discussions in May.

    I agree he is the obvious choice for a "Michael Howard" type leader if one is needed, though. He's dull but he's one of the few Labour people who just has the indefinable "gravitas".

    I agree on that
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    Military tactics in Basra post invasion and our entry into Afghanistan were not brilliant. To some extent this may have been due to lack of political will to do the right thing, and at the tactical level soldiers were brave and professional. But strategically both military and politicians were not effective.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

    Doesn't it help that Chinese industrial wages are, probably, a quarter those of the UK? Perhaps the UK should not specialise in energy-intensive activities. In global terms it is a far away island with few remaining cheap and non-renewable energy reserves. Perhaps the smelting and such should be left to Iceland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    Military tactics in Basra post invasion and our entry into Afghanistan were not brilliant. To some extent this may have been due to lack of political will to do the right thing, and at the tactical level soldiers were brave and professional. But strategically both military and politicians were not effective.
    Yes, but that does not change the argument the vast majority of voters still respected the soldiers fighting on the front line
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994
    edited September 2015
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    We're not talking "most voters". We are talking the fricking Labour Party membership. You know, the one that voted 60% for Corbyn....
    So what, the Tory membership voted 60% for IDS, 4 years later they voted 60% for Cameron after yet another defeat on a rightwing platform
    In what universe do the current Labour membership share anything with the military mindset that is supposed to have the discipline to turn round a Labour Party fecked over by the Corbynistas and point it in the direction of electoral victory? These same members are supposed to have a Damascene conversion? It is not going to happen. Just TALK to the people who voted for Corbyn. They have felt disenfranchised from their own party for decades. That is not going to take a couple of years to come to its senses and vote for Dan Jarvis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:


    When a Corbynite says there is more to politics than winning elections, they tacitly concede that Britain is tolerable as it is, at least for them. If it were not, the acquisition of power would be the alpha and omega of their cause. .
    I have often felt this, I must say. If someone tells me the Tories are baby eaters, but also that they don't want to do any sort of compromise in order to win an election - and assuming they recognise that is probably necessary in order to win - then that tells me they are actually ok with a little bit of baby eating, that the Tories winning is better than a non-perfect Labour winning, in which case it cannot be that bad. It's self defeating rhetoric.
    Why are we upset about this? We ARE the electorate. It's like certain of the less intelligent amongst us complaining when an MP frequently defies the whip and calling them 'serially disloyal' - this is a problem for party whips and leaders, it's GOOD for the actual people who elected the MP. A party being true to what it believes is a GOOD thing. If that doesn't result in a majority, what's the actual problem?

    If they want to be true to a set of beliefs even if that means they will never get to implement any of those beliefs, rather than perhaps implement a few, then that's fine by me, and I hope the guys who win do an ok job getting on with governing, it only annoys me if they pretend the alternative to their ideological consistency (supposed consistency at any rate) which will probably (though not certainly) prevent them from winning, is some evil force that must be stopped at all costs.

    Clearly it isn't if it is not worth paying a price to achieve. The two strands of their argument (Consistency at any price, and Tories are evil), do not work together. So personally I think they should tone down the language (not at conference, that's for the party faithful to hear whatever nonsense they want, it's about the only place an echo chamber is expected), either on Tories or the importance of never modulating their position. I assume they'll do the latter, if not as much as the last labour leaders would have done.

    The 'problem' as you term it, is that to me at any rate such talk makes them look like hypocrites or idiots, who either do compromise to win but pretend they don't, or don't see that saying the Tories are super evil sh*tbags who are still not worth making the slightest compromise to stop, makes no sense.

    It's easy to fix, as I'm sure they will, by appearing more flexible than the more rabid Corbynistas present.
  • EPG said:

    A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

    Doesn't it help that Chinese industrial wages are, probably, a quarter those of the UK? Perhaps the UK should not specialise in energy-intensive activities. In global terms it is a far away island with few remaining cheap and non-renewable energy reserves. Perhaps the smelting and such should be left to Iceland.
    But we are told we can cut ourselves loose and bravely make our own way in this big bad world of massive trading blocks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,994
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    Military tactics in Basra post invasion and our entry into Afghanistan were not brilliant. To some extent this may have been due to lack of political will to do the right thing, and at the tactical level soldiers were brave and professional. But strategically both military and politicians were not effective.
    Yes, but that does not change the argument the vast majority of voters still respected the soldiers fighting on the front line
    The vast majority of voters might respect the soldiers fighting on the front line. The vast majority of voters are not Labour Party members. And I suspect that Labour Party members are somewhat less representative of the vast majority when it comes to supporting our armed forces.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    Military tactics in Basra post invasion and our entry into Afghanistan were not brilliant. To some extent this may have been due to lack of political will to do the right thing, and at the tactical level soldiers were brave and professional. But strategically both military and politicians were not effective.
    Yes, but that does not change the argument the vast majority of voters still respected the soldiers fighting on the front line
    The vast majority of voters might respect the soldiers fighting on the front line. The vast majority of voters are not Labour Party members. And I suspect that Labour Party members are somewhat less representative of the vast majority when it comes to supporting our armed forces.
    Even the far left tends not to criticise the actual soldiers themselves, even if they may attack the top brass
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    We're not talking "most voters". We are talking the fricking Labour Party membership. You know, the one that voted 60% for Corbyn....
    So what, the Tory membership voted 60% for IDS, 4 years later they voted 60% for Cameron after yet another defeat on a rightwing platform
    In what universe do the current Labour membership share anything with the military mindset that is supposed to have the discipline to turn round a Labour Party fecked over by the Corbynistas and point it in the direction of electoral victory? These same members are supposed to have a Damascene conversion? It is not going to happen. Just TALK to the people who voted for Corbyn. They have felt disenfranchised from their own party for decades. That is not going to take a couple of years to come to its senses and vote for Dan Jarvis.
    You could have said exactly the same about Tory members in 2001 but they elected Cameron in 2005 after the general election defeat. The deposing of IDS and his replacement by Howard shifted the membership somewhat and I would suspect the deposing of Corbyn and replacement by Hilary Benn would have a similar effect, but after a third defeat the membership are looking for a winner and that would be when someone like Umunna would have a better chance
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2015
    Looks like we will have a bye election in Edinburgh West soon - a Nat maj of 3k to defend..

    http://ianssmart.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/mortgage-fraud.html?m=1
  • EPG said:

    A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

    Doesn't it help that Chinese industrial wages are, probably, a quarter those of the UK? Perhaps the UK should not specialise in energy-intensive activities. In global terms it is a far away island with few remaining cheap and non-renewable energy reserves. Perhaps the smelting and such should be left to Iceland.
    But we are told we can cut ourselves loose and bravely make our own way in this big bad world of massive trading blocks.
    So how exactly has being in the EU helped us in this matter?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    Military tactics in Basra post invasion and our entry into Afghanistan were not brilliant. To some extent this may have been due to lack of political will to do the right thing, and at the tactical level soldiers were brave and professional. But strategically both military and politicians were not effective.
    Yes, but that does not change the argument the vast majority of voters still respected the soldiers fighting on the front line
    The vast majority of voters might respect the soldiers fighting on the front line. The vast majority of voters are not Labour Party members. And I suspect that Labour Party members are somewhat less representative of the vast majority when it comes to supporting our armed forces.
    Opposing specific military interventions =/= not supporting soldiers as individuals.

    Your argument is like saying that people who don't like Alton Towers would have no sympathy for those kids who got injured when one of those rides broke down a few months ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    TGOHF said:

    Looks like we will have a bye election in Edinburgh West soon - a Nat maj of 3k to defend..

    Oh? What's the cause?

    Interesting I see that the LD vote barely went down in 2015, although it had gone down a lot in 2010 from a high in 2005. Though I think we know what the result would be in the current climate. If there is a bubble at the moment, it isn't bursting yet, and we know who the more dedicated ones to come out for a by-election would probably be.
  • EPG said:

    A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

    Doesn't it help that Chinese industrial wages are, probably, a quarter those of the UK? Perhaps the UK should not specialise in energy-intensive activities. In global terms it is a far away island with few remaining cheap and non-renewable energy reserves. Perhaps the smelting and such should be left to Iceland.
    Heavy industry is more capital and energy intensive than labour intensive.

    If we want to import all our steel, aluminium, chemicals, cement, oil etc we will need to find extra things we can export to pay for them.

    Any suggestions ?

    Perhaps our world leading bankers, multicultural outreach co-ordinators, estate agents and hand carwashers ?
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited September 2015

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    We're not talking "most voters". We are talking the fricking Labour Party membership. You know, the one that voted 60% for Corbyn....
    So what, the Tory membership voted 60% for IDS, 4 years later they voted 60% for Cameron after yet another defeat on a rightwing platform
    In what universe do the current Labour membership share anything with the military mindset that is supposed to have the discipline to turn round a Labour Party fecked over by the Corbynistas and point it in the direction of electoral victory? These same members are supposed to have a Damascene conversion? It is not going to happen. Just TALK to the people who voted for Corbyn. They have felt disenfranchised from their own party for decades. That is not going to take a couple of years to come to its senses and vote for Dan Jarvis.
    Who is to say Jarvis is a good politician or a good political leader? What has he done? What has he said? There have been various ex colonels who entered politics and achieved zilch. Admittedly the ones that come to mind are all Tory. Putting ex army officer in front of his name all the time is plain facile. A political leader a future pm who is not even in the shadow cabinet, has not shown any ability to shadow a ministry never mind run one for real?
    All he has is a bloky name and a rather disrurbing likeness to Mandelson.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kle4 said:

    Finally a silly 'which x are you?' quiz where I didn't get a terrible answer (a non-emperor in an 'which emperor are you' quiz, honestly).

    Which Member of the UN Security Council are you?

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/hayesbrown/mostly-model-un-nerds-will-take-this-quiz?utm_term=.gtzQVveZD#.vsbPD2VW9

    I got the UK.

    Russian Federation (?)
    Probably tilted by the "drink lots" answer
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    TGOHF said:

    Looks like we will have a bye election in Edinburgh West soon - a Nat maj of 3k to defend..

    http://ianssmart.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/mortgage-fraud.html?m=1

    Lib Dems ought to give a Te Deum to the god of by-elections.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited September 2015

    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    antifrank said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    The potential for water on Mars is very significant news.

    It is arguably the worst news that mankind has ever had.
    Why?
    Because it reduces the chance the Great Filter is behind us.
    Ice Warriors? The Great Filter?

    Polite question to you and Marquee Mark: What the hell are you talking about?
    The more we explore space, the more we find out that, in all likelihood, there are hundreds of millions of Earth-like planets in our galaxy capable of sustaining life. And most of those planets are far, far older than this one. So why haven't we found any evidence of even a single advanced civilization sending out signals into the cosmos?

    One plausible explanation is that despite the number of good planets out there, such advanced societies are very rare. In the path from Earth-like planet->conditions for life->simple life->complex life->civilization->advanced civilization->space-faring civilization there is a some sort of filter that screens out most planets from developing such a thing.

    Maybe the formation of self-replicating organisms is actually an incredibly rare event despite the number of worlds. Maybe life is common place in the galaxy, but it is an evolutionary freak event for it to become advanced enough to create societies. Maybe advanced societies discover some secret to particle physics that creates weapons that inevitably cause them to wipe themselves out. Somewhere along the line this Great Filter exists, that knocks out most habitable planets from fulfilling their potential.

    If we're lucky, this Great Filter lies behind us. We've already passed it and there are few like us in the galaxy. If we're unlucky, this Great Filter is in front of us, and we're probably doomed as a species.

    The more we learn that the various steps along the chain behind us are actually common (e.g. that planets often have liquid water), the less likely the Great Filter is behind us and the more likely it's in front of us and will kill us all at some point. Thus the discovery of water on Mars could be the worst news we've ever found out as a species.
    How monstrous a waste of a universe it would be, to just have us pootling about on one bit of rock in an ever so ordinary part of it.
    The 'unfashionable western spiral arm' as the legend that was Douglas Adams described it.

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    If Dan Jarvis wasn't an ex army officer would anyone be talking about him ?

    Has he said or done anything since becoming a Labour MP which justifies all the ramping ?

    I can remember when Eric Joyce was bigged up as a possible future Labour leader because he was an ex army officer as well.

    I would have thought being a former army officer with Labour's current membership is not a good thing.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    EPG said:

    A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

    Doesn't it help that Chinese industrial wages are, probably, a quarter those of the UK? Perhaps the UK should not specialise in energy-intensive activities. In global terms it is a far away island with few remaining cheap and non-renewable energy reserves. Perhaps the smelting and such should be left to Iceland.
    Heavy industry is more capital and energy intensive than labour intensive.

    If we want to import all our steel, aluminium, chemicals, cement, oil etc we will need to find extra things we can export to pay for them.

    Any suggestions ?

    Perhaps our world leading bankers, multicultural outreach co-ordinators, estate agents and hand carwashers ?
    Well actually Britain does have lots of world-leading businesses, thank you very much. That is how the country pays for most of its imports as you mentioned. The problem perhaps is that those businesses tend to be down south and nobody has implemented any good ideas to replace the old jobs of empire in places up north.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    edited September 2015
    On here a couple of weeks ago somebody posted a link to a pamphlet Jarvis wrote about why labour lost so many votes to ukip at the GE, it was very good. However he didn't have any solutions, just platitudes about discussing concerns over immigration.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Chuka is approaching Blair-levels of junk status with your average activist.

    Yes, well as the Tories eventually discovered once you get to 3 defeats the activists start to look for a winner rather than the someone who passes an ideological litmus test
    That is predicated on the dubious assumption that Chuka is a winner :p
    A yougov survey on 17th May of all voters had Umunna on 17%, Burnham 14%, Cooper 8%, Hunt 3%, Kendall 2%, Eagle 1%, Creasey 1%.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-burnham-would-make-the-best-labour-leader-but-chuka-umunna-would-have-won-party-the-next-10255977.html
    Pretty accurate for Liz
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jarvis's chin, minus beard is like Jimmy Hill.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political party may emerge and become the main opposition and eventual government before Labour next wins an election.

    1. Whether the Conservatives win the next GE will largely depend on the state of the economy, (and how the EU referendum goes). but in all likelihood they can win again, if they do that give 10 years for the main opposition to change.

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    I'd rather be a layer on Dan.

    In fact I already am !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    Just watching the ad:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=1&v=o0HY68sWI9c

    Fair points on Labour wanting to increase taxation; public spending and the last Labour gov't spending too little.

    But there's been QE under Osborne's watch, so is saying Labour would print money a little errm...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see this current Labour membership voting for a military man. Not going to happen....

    Attlee was a Major in the War and the most revered Labour PM in the Party
    You can't compare someone who was in a world war in which his electorate shared the pain - with today's soldiers who have fought in wars for which the Labour leader is now apologising. They are poles apart.
    Why? Most voters supported the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars when they were launched and while voters may have criticised the Government over the actions they have not criticised the military
    We're not talking "most voters". We are talking the fricking Labour Party membership. You know, the one that voted 60% for Corbyn....
    So what, the Tory membership voted 60% for IDS, 4 years later they voted 60% for Cameron after yet another defeat on a rightwing platform
    In what universe do the current Labour membership share anything with the military mindset that is supposed to have the discipline to turn round a Labour Party fecked over by the Corbynistas and point it in the direction of electoral victory? These same members are supposed to have a Damascene conversion? It is not going to happen. Just TALK to the people who voted for Corbyn. They have felt disenfranchised from their own party for decades. That is not going to take a couple of years to come to its senses and vote for Dan Jarvis.
    Who is to say Jarvis is a good politician or a good political leader? What has he done? What has he said? There have been various ex colonels who entered politics and achieved zilch. Admittedly the ones that come to mind are all Tory. Putting ex army officer in front of his name all the time is plain facile. A political leader a future pm who is not even in the shadow cabinet, has not shown any ability to shadow a ministry never mind run one for real?
    All he has is a bloky name and a rather disrurbing likeness to Mandelson.
    Are you saying that Mr Duncan Smith (ex-SG) was not a huge asset to his party, then and now?

    DJ on AQ (not _that_ AQ) was pretty yebbut nobut wrt Jezza.

    Although he was certainly otherwise vaguely sensible and sounded human. Which today is saying something in the Labour Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Chuka is approaching Blair-levels of junk status with your average activist.

    Yes, well as the Tories eventually discovered once you get to 3 defeats the activists start to look for a winner rather than the someone who passes an ideological litmus test
    That is predicated on the dubious assumption that Chuka is a winner :p
    A yougov survey on 17th May of all voters had Umunna on 17%, Burnham 14%, Cooper 8%, Hunt 3%, Kendall 2%, Eagle 1%, Creasey 1%.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-burnham-would-make-the-best-labour-leader-but-chuka-umunna-would-have-won-party-the-next-10255977.html
    Pretty accurate for Liz
    Indeed, Umunna was always the only real option for modernisers
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    BigRich said:

    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political party may emerge and become the main opposition and eventual government before Labour next wins an election.

    1. Whether the Conservatives win the next GE will largely depend on the state of the economy, (and how the EU referendum goes). but in all likelihood they can win again, if they do that give 10 years for the main opposition to change.

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?

    Labour will eventually win again, the LDs are a joke and UKIP are too extreme, eventually Cameron will be gone as Blair was and the pendulum will turn
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    BigRich said:

    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political party may emerge and become the main opposition and eventual government before Labour next wins an election.

    1. Whether the Conservatives win the next GE will largely depend on the state of the economy, (and how the EU referendum goes). but in all likelihood they can win again, if they do that give 10 years for the main opposition to change.

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?

    we can only hope.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Danny565 said:
    Surely kiss of death wrt to winning an election.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political party may emerge and become the main opposition and eventual government before Labour next wins an election.

    1. Whether the Conservatives win the next GE will largely depend on the state of the economy, (and how the EU referendum goes). but in all likelihood they can win again, if they do that give 10 years for the main opposition to change.

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?

    Labour will eventually win again, the LDs are a joke and UKIP are too extreme, eventually Cameron will be gone as Blair was and the pendulum will turn
    PBTories don't want to accept how crucial Cameron was to this year's win - and how he'll lop off a few % off the Tory score all other things being equal when he goes.

    The "unelectable" Corbyn was closer to Osborne in the "best PM" YouGov question last week, than Miliband was ever close to Cameron....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd rather be a layer on Dan.

    In fact I already am !

    Cannot see it myself either. The next leader will have to be acceptable to the Corbynites, which means someone else with fairies in attic. The leadership will not go to the right until the selectorate does. I think there is a high chance that Brown will be remembered as the last Labour PM ever.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    EPG said:

    A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

    Doesn't it help that Chinese industrial wages are, probably, a quarter those of the UK? Perhaps the UK should not specialise in energy-intensive activities. In global terms it is a far away island with few remaining cheap and non-renewable energy reserves. Perhaps the smelting and such should be left to Iceland.
    Heavy industry is more capital and energy intensive than labour intensive.

    If we want to import all our steel, aluminium, chemicals, cement, oil etc we will need to find extra things we can export to pay for them.

    Any suggestions ?

    Perhaps our world leading bankers, multicultural outreach co-ordinators, estate agents and hand carwashers ?
    We do not need to worry about 'finding something to export to pay for them'

    Vale of exports = vale of import, the amount of bits of paper with the Queens head on that we send abroad will equal the number that come back here.

    If one year we imported more than we exported, then the values of the Pound would go down, and with that, all of are potential exports would become cheaper in the rest of the would, making them rise, and all imports would become slightly more expensive, meaning we would by less, until eventually the two balance out.

    The import/export statistics are meaningless, if you add up all woulds' exports and imports it looks like we have a $900 billion deficit to the moon, (or something around that)

    This is nothing but an excuse for politicians & bureaucrats to interfere in industrial policy! Playing with things that they do not understand.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Looks like we will have a bye election in Edinburgh West soon - a Nat maj of 3k to defend..

    Oh? What's the cause?

    Interesting I see that the LD vote barely went down in 2015, although it had gone down a lot in 2010 from a high in 2005. Though I think we know what the result would be in the current climate. If there is a bubble at the moment, it isn't bursting yet, and we know who the more dedicated ones to come out for a by-election would probably be.
    A LD win could re-energise the whole party and get them up the agenda again. Now they are a party of opposition they should also find it much easier to challenge at by elections, also given that the SNP have almost swept the board in Scotland, there may be some unionist tactical voting, and there is a lot of unionist vote to squeeze. The unionist bloc will be quite motivated to show they can compete with the SNP as well so they may be more motivated than the SNP who have no use for their Westminster MPs.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BigRich said:

    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political party may emerge and become the main opposition and eventual government before Labour next wins an election.

    1. Whether the Conservatives win the next GE will largely depend on the state of the economy, (and how the EU referendum goes). but in all likelihood they can win again, if they do that give 10 years for the main opposition to change.

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?

    You'd never get paid out though!
  • EPG said:

    EPG said:

    A good comment from MaxPB earlier:

    " Thanks to Ed Miliband's stupid energy policies and the idiocy of the coalition in not repealing them it looks like all energy intensive industries are going bankrupt in the UK. We still need the steel and aluminium, and production of both is very energy intensive and has a high level of emissions. All we are doing is shifting the emissions to China and India along with the jobs. Our need for steel and aluminium hasn't gone away now that we don't produce the stuff, just the jobs and skills.

    Ed Miliband and Ed Davey need to answer for this, so does Osborne who should have pushed the anti-green agenda harder from 2010-2015. "

    Note also that the chance of restarting production of heavy industry once it is lost will be extremely low.

    Thus the UK will permanently increase its trade deficit in these products.

    Not good when the balance of payments is already at record levels of deficit.

    Doesn't it help that Chinese industrial wages are, probably, a quarter those of the UK? Perhaps the UK should not specialise in energy-intensive activities. In global terms it is a far away island with few remaining cheap and non-renewable energy reserves. Perhaps the smelting and such should be left to Iceland.
    Heavy industry is more capital and energy intensive than labour intensive.

    If we want to import all our steel, aluminium, chemicals, cement, oil etc we will need to find extra things we can export to pay for them.

    Any suggestions ?

    Perhaps our world leading bankers, multicultural outreach co-ordinators, estate agents and hand carwashers ?
    Well actually Britain does have lots of world-leading businesses, thank you very much. That is how the country pays for most of its imports as you mentioned. The problem perhaps is that those businesses tend to be down south and nobody has implemented any good ideas to replace the old jobs of empire in places up north.
    It might be a good idea then to find ways of increasing our exporting businesses before casually allowing ourselves to become more dependent upon imports.

    Working in an exporting business I can say we get feck all help from government but an ever increasing overhead burden of rules, regulations and costs. This is irrespective of which political party is in power.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political party may emerge and become the main opposition and eventual government before Labour next wins an election.

    1. Whether the Conservatives win the next GE will largely depend on the state of the economy, (and how the EU referendum goes). but in all likelihood they can win again, if they do that give 10 years for the main opposition to change.

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?

    Labour will eventually win again, the LDs are a joke and UKIP are too extreme, eventually Cameron will be gone as Blair was and the pendulum will turn
    PBTories don't want to accept how crucial Cameron was to this year's win - and how he'll lop off a few % off the Tory score all other things being equal when he goes.

    The "unelectable" Corbyn was closer to Osborne in the "best PM" YouGov question last week, than Miliband was ever close to Cameron....
    Indeed, though I think Cameron may stay on if Corbyn is still there
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    TGOHF said:

    Looks like we will have a bye election in Edinburgh West soon - a Nat maj of 3k to defend..

    http://ianssmart.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/mortgage-fraud.html?m=1

    If the bank offers a maximum of 80% mortgage on the value of the property and you negotiate to buy a £100k property for £80k and pay no deposit, there is no mortgage fraud. You have obtained an 80% mortgage.

    The problem with Thomson is not that she has acted unlawfully. It is to do with the moral implications of an individual involved in the distress purchase market being an MP for a social democratic party.

    Of course, the Scottish Government runs a distress purchase scheme themselves under Mortgage to Rent and Mortgage to Shared Equity. What will be important for Thomson is whether the tenancies she offers are secure or not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    edited September 2015
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Looks like we will have a bye election in Edinburgh West soon - a Nat maj of 3k to defend..

    Oh? What's the cause?

    Interesting I see that the LD vote barely went down in 2015, although it had gone down a lot in 2010 from a high in 2005. Though I think we know what the result would be in the current climate. If there is a bubble at the moment, it isn't bursting yet, and we know who the more dedicated ones to come out for a by-election would probably be.
    A LD win could re-energise the whole party and get them up the agenda again. Now they are a party of opposition they should also find it much easier to challenge at by elections, also given that the SNP have almost swept the board in Scotland, there may be some unionist tactical voting, and there is a lot of unionist vote to squeeze. The unionist bloc will be quite motivated to show they can compete with the SNP as well so they may be more motivated than the SNP who have no use for their Westminster MPs.
    The SNP were on 39% in Edinburgh West in May, the LDs 33%, the Tories 12% and Labour 11%, it would be a seat prime for unionist tactical voting
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edinburgh_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    On topic:-
    But similarly to appearances made by Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna, there was a distinct lack of detail about Jarvis’ views. We already knew that he is a passionate family man, who has a strong belief in the armed forces. This may appear to be a powerful combination to be Labour leader, but throughout the hour-long event, there were sparse details of what he thinks about the economy, immigration — or any key policy areas for that matter.

    Maybe it doesn’t matter right now, as there is no leadership election on the horizon, but many Labour MPs would like to know more about him. Jarvis did say that now he’s returned to the back benches, he will be able to speak his mind more freely, so we might find out soon what Jarvis actually thinks.
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/dan-jarviss-only-conference-appearance-is-pleasant-but-devoid-of-policy-detail/
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political party may emerge and become the main opposition and eventual government before Labour next wins an election.

    1. Whether the Conservatives win the next GE will largely depend on the state of the economy, (and how the EU referendum goes). but in all likelihood they can win again, if they do that give 10 years for the main opposition to change.

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?

    Labour will eventually win again, the LDs are a joke and UKIP are too extreme, eventually Cameron will be gone as Blair was and the pendulum will turn
    maybe, but maybe not, UKIP have got some credibility because of their number of votes, perhaps if they adopted some classic economic centre left policies, (tax the rich a bit more) and combined with their anti-EU, pro NATO, anti immigration, Pro Trident. then maybe they could sweep the WWC, or perhaps the LD could rediscover there liberal side and become a socially liberal, economically credible party? or maybe a new force we are not thinking about yet? time will tell, but I would bet on an eventual labour return.
  • JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    JEO said:

    Cyclefree said:

    antifrank said:

    ...

    The more we explore space, the more we find out that, in all likelihood, there are hundreds of millions of Earth-like planets in our galaxy capable of sustaining life. And most of those planets are far, far older than this one. So why haven't we found any evidence of even a single advanced civilization sending out signals into the cosmos?

    One plausible explanation is that despite the number of good planets out there, such advanced societies are very rare. In the path from Earth-like planet->conditions for life->simple life->complex life->civilization->advanced civilization->space-faring civilization there is a some sort of filter that screens out most planets from developing such a thing.

    Maybe the formation of self-replicating organisms is actually an incredibly rare event despite the number of worlds. Maybe life is common place in the galaxy, but it is an evolutionary freak event for it to become advanced enough to create societies. Maybe advanced societies discover some secret to particle physics that creates weapons that inevitably cause them to wipe themselves out. Somewhere along the line this Great Filter exists, that knocks out most habitable planets from fulfilling their potential.

    If we're lucky, this Great Filter lies behind us. We've already passed it and there are few like us in the galaxy. If we're unlucky, this Great Filter is in front of us, and we're probably doomed as a species.

    The more we learn that the various steps along the chain behind us are actually common (e.g. that planets often have liquid water), the less likely the Great Filter is behind us and the more likely it's in front of us and will kill us all at some point. Thus the discovery of water on Mars could be the worst news we've ever found out as a species.
    How monstrous a waste of a universe it would be, to just have us pootling about on one bit of rock in an ever so ordinary part of it.
    The 'unfashionable western spiral arm' as the legend that was Douglas Adams described it.

    A planetary civilisation can rise and fall and be still lost to us since it happened eons ago but its radio waves have not reached us yet and our world may wither and die before they do. Lots of possible civilisations separated by great distance and all rising and falling over a different time with the still significant speed limit of the speed of light restricting communications.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Danny565 said:

    On topic:-

    But similarly to appearances made by Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna, there was a distinct lack of detail about Jarvis’ views. We already knew that he is a passionate family man, who has a strong belief in the armed forces. This may appear to be a powerful combination to be Labour leader, but throughout the hour-long event, there were sparse details of what he thinks about the economy, immigration — or any key policy areas for that matter.

    Maybe it doesn’t matter right now, as there is no leadership election on the horizon, but many Labour MPs would like to know more about him. Jarvis did say that now he’s returned to the back benches, he will be able to speak his mind more freely, so we might find out soon what Jarvis actually thinks.
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/dan-jarviss-only-conference-appearance-is-pleasant-but-devoid-of-policy-detail/

    Blair and Cameron both became PM on a bland policy free platform. To this day I'm still not sure what either Blair or Cameron really believe. I know Osborne is a liberal with a side of fiscal conservatism and Brown was just a nutter, but after so many years I don't know what the former two believe in. Quite an achievement given my level of interest in politics.

    Basically, not having any policy isn't really a bad thing if you can pull off the bland, "I'm not a threat" look like both Dave and Tone. Ed couldn't do the blank sheet of paper because he was weird, Dan doesn't seem to be weird and his background as a family man with a military past and strong values will certainly not hinder him.
  • Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Looks like we will have a bye election in Edinburgh West soon - a Nat maj of 3k to defend..

    http://ianssmart.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/mortgage-fraud.html?m=1

    If the bank offers a maximum of 80% mortgage on the value of the property and you negotiate to buy a £100k property for £80k and pay no deposit, there is no mortgage fraud. You have obtained an 80% mortgage.

    The problem with Thomson is not that she has acted unlawfully. It is to do with the moral implications of an individual involved in the distress purchase market being an MP for a social democratic party.

    Of course, the Scottish Government runs a distress purchase scheme themselves under Mortgage to Rent and Mortgage to Shared Equity. What will be important for Thomson is whether the tenancies she offers are secure or not.
    The value of a
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    I'm not shore if any bookmaker are offering odds on this, but I think it is possible that there will NEVER be a Labour PM again!! OK, I know it is fool hardy to make long term predictions, but, please hear me out, I think a new Political p

    2. The long-term (even inter-generational) allegiances to political parties are on a long term decline. while Labour can now depend on 25-30% regardless this number is likely to decline, possibly rapidly.

    3. New (or revived) movements have never found it so easy to flourish, partly thanks to social media, if your a good salesman hits the right note at the right time you can grow in popularity and organisation much quicker than ever before. e.g. rise of the SNP.

    4. Trade Unions, slowly declining in size for a generations, for underlining socio-economic reasons, will probably shrink rapidly over the next 5 years, because of the trade union bill.

    5. Trade unions ability to support the Labour party finically will be especially hard hit by the Bill.

    6. The currant hard left LP is not going to apple to anybody outside the Hard Left, at least not unless the economy crashes. but with so many Hard Left now in the party and consolidating there positions and power, in a few years it may be to late to remove them or for anybody moderate to win the leadership of the party.

    7. The Trotskyist new joiners have a reputation for infighting, and there is no reason to think this will wane, making the party look irrevocably split.

    In the past a party could wate until the pendulum swung back in its favour, this time I'm not so shore, I just don't know who the next official opposition or new government will be?

    Labour will eventually win again, the LDs are a joke and UKIP are too extreme, eventually Cameron will be gone as Blair was and the pendulum will turn
    maybe, but maybe not, UKIP have got some credibility because of their number of votes, perhaps if they adopted some classic economic centre left policies, (tax the rich a bit more) and combined with their anti-EU, pro NATO, anti immigration, Pro Trident. then maybe they could sweep the WWC, or perhaps the LD could rediscover there liberal side and become a socially liberal, economically credible party? or maybe a new force we are not thinking about yet? time will tell, but I would bet on an eventual labour return.
    A socially liberal, economically credible party will get 10% at best as Clegg discovered. UKIP are a populist party, they are not going to overtake Labour on the centre left
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