Predictably - Jezza's Let's scrap the benefits cap isn't going down well with people who actually work for a living. Most comments elsewhere seem to be "well let's all give up work and claim them instead!"
Things can change quickly in politics but Labour should be under no illusions – things are serious and Labour needs to do something about it fast.
.
.
Labour is currently an order of magnitude more bat-shit crazy than the IDS Tory party.
.
In what way are current Tory policies different to when IDS was leader? Genuine question.
Sorry I went to bed.
The Conservative party of the IDS era was, in my eyes, a very different beast from the Cameron led party erything was deregulation. Whilst there are still elements who believe that that has not been the policy.
It was a party that was obsessed with cutting taxes as the solution to pretty much all the government's ills. The Coalition and this government obviously inherited a different and horrendous situation but they have increased taxes to maintain public spending in real terms.
Is someone of the centre right I disagree with even more of what Corbyn says than I did of IDS. But they were both unpleasant distortions and extremes.
Agree with most of that but Osborne has cut inheritance and income tax and public spending as a share of gdp
He has cut the top tax rate from 50 to 45% and raised the threshold for low earners and the inheritance tax threshold for middle earners
C'mon, the 50p rate was a political blip, in place for weeks under Gordon Brown - not because he believed it would raise more money, but as a landmine for the Tories to detonate when they inevitably had to reduce it because it was the wrong point on the Laffer curve.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
But the electoral system in Wales seems to work in stitching up the country for Labour in a way it did not in Scotland.
Even if Labour drop to 27-28 - and they won't drop further - they'll still be in power, because Plaid, the Lib Dems, Tories and UKIP just won't tango.
I agree. But the symbolism of losing an overall majority would be immense.
Things can change quickly in politics but Labour should be under no illusions – things are serious and Labour needs to do something about it fast.
.
.
Labour is currently an order of magnitude more bat-shit crazy than the IDS Tory party.
.
In what way are current Tory policies different to when IDS was leader? Genuine question.
Sorry I went to bed.
The Conservative party of the IDS era was, in my eyes, a very different beast from the Cameron led party erything was deregulation. Whilst there are still elements who believe that that has not been the policy.
It was a party that was obsessed with cutting taxes as the solution to pretty much all the government's ills. The Coalition and this government obviously inherited a different and horrendous situation but they have increased taxes to maintain public spending in real terms.
Is someone of the centre right I disagree with even more of what Corbyn says than I did of IDS. But they were both unpleasant distortions and extremes.
Agree with most of that but Osborne has cut inheritance and income tax and public spending as a share of gdp
He has cut the top tax rate from 50 to 45% and raised the threshold for low earners and the inheritance tax threshold for middle earners
C'mon, the 50p rate was a political blip, in place for weeks under Gordon Brown - not because he believed it would raise more money, but as a landmine for the Tories to detonate when they inevitably had to reduce it because it was the wrong point on the Laffer curve.
Osborne still cut it even despite the flack and got reelected
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
Edit. Correction - more detail on the results showed UKIP up 13% in Labour Pontefract while well down in the 4 Tory wards last night. So not so good for Corbyn at all.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
I have just applied for the QT in Leicester. Lets hope for a decent panel; that Farage fellow hasn't been on for a while...
Me too!
Let me know if you get on, may have a chance to meet up. I see the Leicester Central Fire Station is doomed. I used to walk past it each day, and rather liked its 1930's style and firehouses.
Will do. We're all doomed! After the next round of cuts, we'll be down to 2 blokes and a dog with some buckets of water- and the dog will be in charge!
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
UKIP's poll rating has been good, 12% on average, but local results have mostly been poor, although the party did win three second places last night. If the party maintains its current vote share, it should win seats in the Welsh and London Assemblies.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
I think that's a very 'brave ' prediction. The outer London boroughs certainly could produce a very different score to some of the inner boroughs. Also not sure that Khan will go down all that well in parts of north and north-west London. As for Wales Labour might lose their absolute majority.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Things can change quickly in politics but Labour should be under no illusions – things are serious and Labour needs to do something about it fast.
.
.
snip
The Tory party that chose IDS was old, intolerant, obsessed with Europe, rigid in its thinking and much more interested in itself than it was in the country as a whole.
In what way are current Tory policies different to when IDS was leader? Genuine question.
Sorry I went to bed.
The Conservative party of the IDS era was, in my eyes, a very different beast from the Cameron led party of 2015.
It was a party that still really believed in s28. Cameron's government introduced Gay Marriage.
It was a party that thought all that green, climate change stuff was just a conspiracy to tie down business and that the answer to everything was deregulation. Whilst there are still elements who believe that that has not been the policy.
It was a party that was obsessed with cutting taxes as the solution to pretty much all the government's ills. The Coalition and this government obviously inherited a different and horrendous situation but they have increased taxes to maintain public spending in real terms.
It was a party that was very judgemental about single parents and those on benefits. We don't hear that unpleasant nonsense anymore.
It was a party who really had not come to terms with ethnic minorities and frankly gave the impression that they wished they were not here. Again that is no longer the case although there is still work to do.
It was of course a party that was obsessed by the EU which is why Ken Clarke was not leading it. The growth of UKIP has undoubtedly rebalanced the party to the centre.
I took a look at the Tory manifesto before the election and compared it to that of 2005 and 2001.
What struck me most were the similarities.
Aha! That's just it. Cameron has succeeded in getting an audience to the point where DavidL, TSE, me, you and foxinsox are happy to vote for him. The left also think he's dragged the Tories to the left.
Meanwhile, he's actually getting on with some quite solid Tory stuff.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
But the electoral system in Wales seems to work in stitching up the country for Labour in a way it did not in Scotland.
Even if Labour drop to 27-28 - and they won't drop further - they'll still be in power, because Plaid, the Lib Dems, Tories and UKIP just won't tango.
I agree. But the symbolism of losing an overall majority would be immense.
Wrong. Labour don't have an overall majority at the moment.
They have 30 seats out of 60. So, it is already a Labour minority government but in practice either the LibDems or Plaid Cymru or both generally support Labour. There is horsetrading with both LibDems and Plaid Cymru to get the budget through, for example.
Labour will maybe lose 2 or 3 seats, but the administration after 2016 will look much like the one that is already running Wales.
I doubt it will have much of an effect on Corbyn's position.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
It's touch and go whether Labour hold Wales. They'll come first in the London Assembly, but perhaps not by so big a margin as 2012. The Metropolitan Boroughs don't much matter. It's their performance in unitary councils and districts that should concern them.
I have just applied for the QT in Leicester. Lets hope for a decent panel; that Farage fellow hasn't been on for a while...
Me too!
Let me know if you get on, may have a chance to meet up. I see the Leicester Central Fire Station is doomed. I used to walk past it each day, and rather liked its 1930's style and firehouses.
Will do. We're all doomed! After the next round of cuts, we'll be down to 2 blokes and a dog with some buckets of water- and the dog will be in charge!
My sympathies. University Hospitals Leicester has just sliced 8% off all departmental budgets for next year to balance the books. With 70% of our costs being staff salaries then that means either down-banding or redundancies and vacancy freezes. The junior doctors are revolting, but the rest of us have to muddle on. The only good bit is that the freeze on employment at present is only for admin and management staff.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
But the electoral system in Wales seems to work in stitching up the country for Labour in a way it did not in Scotland.
Even if Labour drop to 27-28 - and they won't drop further - they'll still be in power, because Plaid, the Lib Dems, Tories and UKIP just won't tango.
I agree. But the symbolism of losing an overall majority would be immense.
Wrong. Labour don't have an overall majority at the moment.
They have 30 seats out of 60. So, it is already a Labour minority government but in practice either the LibDems or Plaid Cymru or both generally support Labour. There is horsetrading with both LibDems and Plaid Cymru to get the budget through, for example.
Labour will maybe lose 2 or 3 seats, but the administration after 2016 will look much like the one that is already running Wales.
I doubt it will have much of an effect on Corbyn's position.
There was, after the election before last, a possibility of a Rainbow non-labour coalition, but it never materialised. Assembly ended up with a Lab-PC coalition IIRC.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
As Richard Tyndall said, the best way to kill UKIP is to vote for Leave.
Things can change quickly in politics but Labour should be under no illusions – things are serious and Labour needs to do something about it fast.
.
.
snip
The Tory party that chose IDS was old, intolerant, obsessed with Europe, rigid in its thinking and much more interested in itself than it was in the country as a whole.
In what way are current Tory policies different to when IDS was leader? Genuine question.
Sorry I went to bed.
The Conservative party of the IDS era was, in my eyes, a very different beast from the Cameron led party of 2015.
It was a party that still really believed in s28. Cameron's government introduced Gay Marriage.
It was a party that thought all that green, climate change stuff was just a conspiracy to tie down business and that the answer to everything was deregulation. Whilst there are still elements who believe that that has not been the policy.
It was of course a party that was obsessed by the EU which is why Ken Clarke was not leading it. The growth of UKIP has undoubtedly rebalanced the party to the centre.
I took a look at the Tory manifesto before the election and compared it to that of 2005 and 2001.
What struck me most were the similarities.
Aha! That's just it. Cameron has succeeded in getting an audience to the point where DavidL, TSE, me, you and foxinsox are happy to vote for him. The left also think he's dragged the Tories to the left.
Meanwhile, he's actually getting on with some quite solid Tory stuff.
He did drag the Tories to the left, the Tory right went along with 'hug a hoodie', 'greenest government ever' and even 'don't bang on about Europe' because they wanted power. When it came in the form of the coalition the tories were constrained and we got pretty good government considering. Now the right is reasserting itself, the environment is off the agenda, small companies are being penalised and Europe will be to 'banged on about' to a great extent quite soon. I don't think that Cameron is too concerned about this, he just does what he needs to do to for himself and his party to continue in power.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
As Richard Tyndall said, the best way to kill UKIP is to vote for Leave.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
I think that's a very 'brave ' prediction. The outer London boroughs certainly could produce a very different score to some of the inner boroughs. Also not sure that Khan will go down all that well in parts of north and north-west London. As for Wales Labour might lose their absolute majority.
Labour has a double digit lead in London and will be ahead in Wales
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
As Richard Tyndall said, the best way to kill UKIP is to vote for Leave.
The best way to boost it is a narrow In
I think UKIP will regret splitting the "No" camp - even more so if it fails to gain official recognition as a result.
The SNP were able to make "Yes" synonyous in people's minds with voting for the party itself, and could work backwards from 46% to their share. (Nobody will remember the Greens.)
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
As Richard Tyndall said, the best way to kill UKIP is to vote for Leave.
Nigel Farage would need to be dragged off the political stage with a walking cane round the neck.
He did drag the Tories to the left, the Tory right went along with 'hug a hoodie', 'greenest government ever' and even 'don't bang on about Europe' because they wanted power. When it came in the form of the coalition the tories were constrained and we got pretty good government considering. Now the right is reasserting itself, the environment is off the agenda, small companies are being penalised and Europe will be to 'banged on about' to a great extent quite soon. I don't think that Cameron is too concerned about this, he just does what he needs to do to for himself and his party to continue in power.
I don't see why looking after our natural environment is a left-wing thing. The biggest supporters of the green belt are on the right.
And, once again, why is Europe the only subject that isn't allowed to be "banged on about". Whenever Cameron has done something very eurosceptic, he's gone up in the polls. Maybe we should restrict "no banging on about" to things like inequality or housing?
There is a view, with which I agree, that the primary function of a Parliament in a Parliamentary democracy is to provide consent to Government. If increasing numbers of people come to believe that voting is a waste of time because either a) they live where their vote will not matter. Or b) that no party that they wish to vote for has any chance of proportionate representation, then we all have a problem.
Whilst it clearly irks some posters on PB that a significant section of the electorate want to vote for a socialist, that does not change the reality that they do. An establishment campaign that demonstrates that there is no chance of their views ever being fairly represented will eventually undermine the legitimacy of that establishment and of liberal democracy itself.
Mr. Corbyn should be treated with respect not only out of courtesy, though that would be decent, but out of self interest. The hysterical hatred being demonstrated by some who post here may gratify the partisan but it is part of a dangerous process that may undermine democracy.
I am over sixty and have never voted Labour.
That's an interesting point (do post more often). I've supported PR for a long time for much the same reasons - if people want to vote UKIP or Green or even BNP, we shouldn't deliberately set out to marginalise them, but rather address the reasons that make them feel that way. It's what democracy is supposed to do, and if we rig the system to frustrate them, we can't complain when people lose trust in it. T
hat's why the stuff about it being terrible that Corbyn was allowed to stand by the 36 MPs is so misplaced - an effort to prevent someone who was overwhelmingly preferred by the selectorate would have been misplaced. A centre-left alternative needs to be based on a better appeal, not a nomination stitch-up.
To be fair, I've not noticed a lot of hatred of Corbyn here. Scorn, yes, but hatred no. People would be quite happy to see him in the Skinner/Benn role as the principled leftist hero who loses. What gives an edge to it is the fear of the centre-left that he'll spoil the chance of an alternative to the Tories, and the fear of the right that he might surprise them.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
It's touch and go whether Labour hold Wales. They'll come first in the London Assembly, but perhaps not by so big a margin as 2012. The Metropolitan Boroughs don't much matter. It's their performance in unitary councils and districts that should concern them.
It is about Corbyn surviving not victory and it was a by election which toppled IDS probably same for Corbyn
I have just applied for the QT in Leicester. Lets hope for a decent panel; that Farage fellow hasn't been on for a while...
Me too!
Let me know if you get on, may have a chance to meet up. I see the Leicester Central Fire Station is doomed. I used to walk past it each day, and rather liked its 1930's style and firehouses.
Will do. We're all doomed! After the next round of cuts, we'll be down to 2 blokes and a dog with some buckets of water- and the dog will be in charge!
My sympathies. University Hospitals Leicester has just sliced 8% off all departmental budgets for next year to balance the books. With 70% of our costs being staff salaries then that means either down-banding or redundancies and vacancy freezes. The junior doctors are revolting, but the rest of us have to muddle on. The only good bit is that the freeze on employment at present is only for admin and management staff.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
Kippers post an Out vote, will be campaigning for all foreigners here to be turfed out, and the return of steam engines and uniformed porters on the railways. They won't be going away soon.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
I think that's a very 'brave ' prediction. The outer London boroughs certainly could produce a very different score to some of the inner boroughs. Also not sure that Khan will go down all that well in parts of north and north-west London. As for Wales Labour might lose their absolute majority.
Labour has a double digit lead in London and will be ahead in Wales
The numbers indicate Labour may well lose in London next year. Should that happen Corbyn is toast. Whether that helps revive Labour is another matter.
Poor old Nick Palmer's attempts to put a gloss on the horrific findings of the poll indicate that the party may well now be a lost cause and that something else will have to emerge to take its place.
Everyone I meet tells me Nick's a nice man - he clearly is a pleasant individual from the way he conducts himself on here. His educational qualifications and career history, not to mention his choice of hobbies, show him to be an intelligent man as well.
So why does he post such utterly moronic stuff on Corbyn?
I'd suggest that Nick's comments are indicative of a Labour party that will not regards Corbyn as toast if Khan loses. My guess is that the greater majority of the blame will land on the candidate (and rightly so, as mayoral elections are more about the candidate than the party).
It's not only a Mayoral election though, is it? Isn't the Assembly up for grabs too? Labour won that even when Ken lost to Boris. If it loses next year there will only be one person to blame.
That I would agree with, however if Labour loses the London Assmebly vote I will ask Paddy Ashdown to eat my hat.
Will do. We're all doomed! After the next round of cuts, we'll be down to 2 blokes and a dog with some buckets of water- and the dog will be in charge!
Pilots used to joke about modern aircraft and flightdeck management. The new regime will consist of a pilot and a dog. The pilot is there to keep an eye on the controls as the aircraft flies itself and the dog is there to bite him if he touches any of the controls.
"This book is a serious work." - hmm. Given the author (well, the one who's bothered to do interviews) won't defend the claim that's gotten most media coverage as true and included it based on one anonymous source repeating it [without the need for any pesky evidence], I'm not sure Dale's definition of 'serious' is the same as everyone else's.
Crowberries are sub-arctic tundra plants which grow in the wild and are edible. I know this not because I go foraging in Scandinavia, but because I wanted as realistic as possible a basis for the Kuhrland in Journey to Altmortis. I'm not saying my fantasy story is more realistic than the vendetta-driven hatchet job of a biography, I'm just including this anecdote in my post and allowing readers of PB to make up their own minds.
There is a view, with which I agree, that the primary function of a Parliament in a Parliamentary democracy is to provide consent to Government. If increasing numbers of people come to believe that voting is a waste of time because either a) they live where their vote will not matter. Or b) that no party that they wish to vote for has any chance of proportionate representation, then we all have a problem.
Whilst it clearly irks some posters on PB that a significant section of the electorate want to vote for a socialist, that does not change the reality that they do. An establishment campaign that demonstrates that there is no chance of their views ever being fairly represented will eventually undermine the legitimacy of that establishment and of liberal democracy itself.
Mr. Corbyn should be treated with respect not only out of courtesy, though that would be decent, but out of self interest. The hysterical hatred being demonstrated by some who post here may gratify the partisan but it is part of a dangerous process that may undermine democracy.
I am over sixty and have never voted Labour.
That's an interesting point (do post more often). I've supported PR for a long time for much the same reasons - if people want to vote UKIP or Green or even BNP, we shouldn't deliberately set out to marginalise them, but rather address the reasons that make them feel that way. It's what democracy is supposed to do, and if we rig the system to frustrate them, we can't complain when people lose trust in it. T
hat's why the stuff about it being terrible that Corbyn was allowed to stand by the 36 MPs is so misplaced - an effort to prevent someone who was overwhelmingly preferred by the selectorate would have been misplaced. A centre-left alternative needs to be based on a better appeal, not a nomination stitch-up.
To be fair, I've not noticed a lot of hatred of Corbyn here. Scorn, yes, but hatred no. People would be quite happy to see him in the Skinner/Benn role as the principled leftist hero who loses. What gives an edge to it is the fear of the centre-left that he'll spoil the chance of an alternative to the Tories, and the fear of the right that he might surprise them.
hi Nick
I hate him.
He has consorted with the most monstrous, hateful, disgusting people. And not, like politicians throughout the world from a sense of realpolitik, but because he supports their causes.
Very prickly. He himself admits the pig allegation wouldn't be printed in a newspaper because it wouldn't have credibility. But he then has the cheek to complain that the paper reviews ignored it when it was printed in a newspaper. The man has embarassed himself.
The debate was not the only intellectual feat from the kids, with the police also thanking the children for the suggestion “that we should have police rhinos”.
Things can change quickly in politics but Labour should be under no illusions – things are serious and Labour needs to do something about it fast.
.
.
snip
The Tory party that chose IDS was old, intolerant, obsessed with Europe, rigid in its thinking and much more interested in itself than it was in the country as a whole.
In what way are current Tory policies different to when IDS was leader? Genuine question.
Sorry I went to bed.
The Conservative party of the IDS era was, in my eyes, a very different beast from the Cameron led party of 2015.
It was a party that still really believed in s28. Cameron's government introduced Gay Marriage.
It was a party that thought all that green, climate change stuff was just a conspiracy to tie down business and that the answer to everything was deregulation. Whilst there are still elements who believe that that has not been the policy.
.
Aha! That's just it. Cameron has succeeded in getting an audience to the point where DavidL, TSE, me, you and foxinsox are happy to vote for him. The left also think he's dragged the Tories to the left.
Meanwhile, he's actually getting on with some quite solid Tory stuff.
He did drag the Tories to the left, the Tory right went along with 'hug a hoodie', 'greenest government ever' and even 'don't bang on about Europe' because they wanted power. When it came in the form of the coalition the tories were constrained and we got pretty good government considering. Now the right is reasserting itself, the environment is off the agenda, small companies are being penalised and Europe will be to 'banged on about' to a great extent quite soon. I don't think that Cameron is too concerned about this, he just does what he needs to do to for himself and his party to continue in power.
But that's all froth. I see renegotiation of our EU relationship and referendum, commitments on defence, immigration control, sensible policy on asylum, an inheritance and higher rate tax cut, trade union restrictions, free schools, recognition of marriage in the tax system, human rights reform, an attempt to mitigate the hunting act and EVEL.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
As Richard Tyndall said, the best way to kill UKIP is to vote for Leave.
The next big opportunity for UKIP is in 2018-19 in the wake of a narrow Remain that quickly unravels, with a new Tory leader and the euros just round the corner. It could set them up very nicely, and give the Tories exactly the same problem as last time, just before GE2020.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Well, there sort of is. UKIP will continue to block them coming to the UK when they get EU passports.
I have just applied for the QT in Leicester. Lets hope for a decent panel; that Farage fellow hasn't been on for a while...
Me too!
Let me know if you get on, may have a chance to meet up. I see the Leicester Central Fire Station is doomed. I used to walk past it each day, and rather liked its 1930's style and firehouses.
Will do. We're all doomed! After the next round of cuts, we'll be down to 2 blokes and a dog with some buckets of water- and the dog will be in charge!
My sympathies. University Hospitals Leicester has just sliced 8% off all departmental budgets for next year to balance the books. With 70% of our costs being staff salaries then that means either down-banding or redundancies and vacancy freezes. The junior doctors are revolting, but the rest of us have to muddle on. The only good bit is that the freeze on employment at present is only for admin and management staff.
Though the NHS is ringfenced
The overall budget is, but UHL is like most acute trusts forecasting a substantial deficit again this year (£40 million for us). The DoH let that sort of deficit happen the year before the election, but wants to clampdown on it the year after. The next few years are going to be pretty harsh on staff, as most of the NHS budget is staff related. Fortunately we have a pretty good SMT at my Trust, but no matter how good the pilot, if the plane runs out of fuel.
There are some areas of increased spending. Our new expanded Emergency dept is being funded by the Trust Development Agency rather than by a PFI sleight of hand.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Well, there sort of is. UKIP will continue to block them coming to the UK when they get EU passports.
Are UKIP planning to require visas for EU citizens or residents? If not then it will not be possible to stop people coming, and I am not convinced that deportation will become suddenly easier.
That's an interesting point (do post more often). I've supported PR for a long time for much the same reasons - if people want to vote UKIP or Green or even BNP, we shouldn't deliberately set out to marginalise them, but rather address the reasons that make them feel that way. It's what democracy is supposed to do, and if we rig the system to frustrate them, we can't complain when people lose trust in it. T
hat's why the stuff about it being terrible that Corbyn was allowed to stand by the 36 MPs is so misplaced - an effort to prevent someone who was overwhelmingly preferred by the selectorate would have been misplaced. A centre-left alternative needs to be based on a better appeal, not a nomination stitch-up.
To be fair, I've not noticed a lot of hatred of Corbyn here. Scorn, yes, but hatred no. People would be quite happy to see him in the Skinner/Benn role as the principled leftist hero who loses. What gives an edge to it is the fear of the centre-left that he'll spoil the chance of an alternative to the Tories, and the fear of the right that he might surprise them.
I agree with you about PR but I don't think it follows that it carries over to the Labour election result.
It's true that had the same line-up gone into an election on the 2010 rules, Corbyn would probably still have won. He'd have taken half the membership vote, maybe a tenth of the MPs but about two-thirds of union members. That'd have given him around 42-43% on the first round which probably would have been enough to see him over the line, though it would have been close. Under the pre-OMOV rules, he'd certainly have won with the overwhelming support of union block votes.
However, all this masks what the essential role of the nomination process is about, which is keeping some sanity in the process and minimising the risk of precisely the kind of takeover which has occurred. As the figures Mike put up the other day show, the election result was representative of Labour's electorate, not the wider one (not even that part of the GE electorate that votes Labour). MPs were supposed to use their judgement to keep people like that off the ballot-paper. They didn't and Labour is in a very tight spot as a result.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Well, there sort of is. UKIP will continue to block them coming to the UK when they get EU passports.
Are UKIP planning to require visas for EU citizens or residents? If not then it will not be possible to stop people coming, and I am not convinced that deportation will become suddenly easier.
So UKIP will stop some EU passport holders of a different background , shall we say ? There is a word in the English language for such actions.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Well, there sort of is. UKIP will continue to block them coming to the UK when they get EU passports.
Are UKIP planning to require visas for EU citizens or residents? If not then it will not be possible to stop people coming, and I am not convinced that deportation will become suddenly easier.
So UKIP will stop some EU passport holders of a different background , shall we say ? There is a word in the English language for such actions.
Actually, yes.
When I went to the PPC interview it was made clear that eventually ukip would seek to differentiate by skin colour so that there would be fewer non whites in the UK. It wouldn't matter if they held EU passports or not, a way would be found to stop them.
Muslims would be held in a detention centre a la Guantanamo Bay
The national anthem (english) would be changed to this
How fascinating. I didn't read the Tory manifesto back then as they simply weren't credible in my view.
There's a great comment in the Rawnsley book where something like page 34 of the 2005 Labour manifesto has a transformative, visionary policy and page 34 of the Conservative manifesto is the back cover.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Well, there sort of is. UKIP will continue to block them coming to the UK when they get EU passports.
Are UKIP planning to require visas for EU citizens or residents? If not then it will not be possible to stop people coming, and I am not convinced that deportation will become suddenly easier.
I thought it was quite well known UKIP would implement the same points based system for non-EU citizens to EU citizens. Unskilled migrants that get German or Swedish passports would be unable to come here, as they will be under the current system.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
As Richard Tyndall said, the best way to kill UKIP is to vote for Leave.
UKIP isn't just about Europe, for most. It may be for Richard Tyndall, but UKIP also taps into the desire of a great many people for a more socially conservative political party.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Well, there sort of is. UKIP will continue to block them coming to the UK when they get EU passports.
Are UKIP planning to require visas for EU citizens or residents? If not then it will not be possible to stop people coming, and I am not convinced that deportation will become suddenly easier.
I thought it was quite well known UKIP would implement the same points based system for non-EU citizens to EU citizens. Unskilled migrants that get German or Swedish passports would be unable to come here, as they will be under the current system.
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
With the EUref in prospect there becomes little point in voting kipper, particularly in local elections. What distinctive positions do they take in local government?
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Their hectoring forced Dave to offer the EUref. Meanwhile, events, as they so often do, have come their way and whatever the views of the GBP on the refugees, it is clear that the EU is a discordant, arguably not fit for purpose institution. Plenty more BOO-ers now than in May.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
As Richard Tyndall said, the best way to kill UKIP is to vote for Leave.
UKIP isn't just about Europe, for most. It may be for Richard Tyndall, but UKIP also taps into the desire of a great many people for a more socially conservative political party.
Among conservatives I have known that have switched to UKIP, there are a lot of grumbles, but it's clear the EU and immigration are the two issues they have forced them over the edge. And we'd have got immigration down a lot more had it not been for our EU membership, so it's the root cause in both cases.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
It's touch and go whether Labour hold Wales. They'll come first in the London Assembly, but perhaps not by so big a margin as 2012. The Metropolitan Boroughs don't much matter. It's their performance in unitary councils and districts that should concern them.
It is about Corbyn surviving not victory and it was a by election which toppled IDS probably same for Corbyn
Which by election was that? During the 2001 to 2005 Parliament all the by elections were LAB defences
There were two local by-elections yesterday in Norfolk and UKIP came fourth in both. Previously 3rd, well ahead of LD’s, who last night overtook them.
Take it Harry Hayfield is on a well-deserved holiday?
I think the Kipper performance since a disappointing GE has been dire. If they do implode it will benefit both Tories and Labour in their heartlands - could have the effect of keeping Jeremy safe.
on asylum policy, there's nothing to differentiate UKIP from current government policy.
Well, there sort of is. UKIP will continue to block them coming to the UK when they get EU passports.
Are UKIP planning to require visas for EU citizens or residents? If not then it will not be possible to stop people coming, and I am not convinced that deportation will become suddenly easier.
I thought it was quite well known UKIP would implement the same points based system for non-EU citizens to EU citizens. Unskilled migrants that get German or Swedish passports would be unable to come here, as they will be under the current system.
It would be very easy to deport tourists that have overstayed to somewhere like Germany. In addition, they would never be able to claim asylum in the UK, so the life they choose here would be in the shadows, compared to a legal one in Germany.
That's an interesting point (do post more often). I've supported PR for a long time for much the same reasons - if people want to vote UKIP or Green or even BNP, we shouldn't deliberately set out to marginalise them, but rather address the reasons that make them feel that way. It's what democracy is supposed to do, and if we rig the system to frustrate them, we can't complain when people lose trust in it. T
hat's why the stuff about it being terrible that Corbyn was allowed to stand by the 36 MPs is so misplaced - an effort to prevent someone who was overwhelmingly preferred by the selectorate would have been misplaced. A centre-left alternative needs to be based on a better appeal, not a nomination stitch-up.
To be fair, I've not noticed a lot of hatred of Corbyn here. Scorn, yes, but hatred no. People would be quite happy to see him in the Skinner/Benn role as the principled leftist hero who loses. What gives an edge to it is the fear of the centre-left that he'll spoil the chance of an alternative to the Tories, and the fear of the right that he might surprise them.
I agree with you about PR but I don't think it follows that it carries over to the Labour election result.
It's true that had the same line-up gone into an election on the 2010 rules, Corbyn would probably still have won. He'd have taken half the membership vote, maybe a tenth of the MPs but about two-thirds of union members. That'd have given him around 42-43% on the first round which probably would have been enough to see him over the line, though it would have been close. Under the pre-OMOV rules, he'd certainly have won with the overwhelming support of union block votes.
However, all this masks what the essential role of the nomination process is about, which is keeping some sanity in the process and minimising the risk of precisely the kind of takeover which has occurred. As the figures Mike put up the other day show, the election result was representative of Labour's electorate, not the wider one (not even that part of the GE electorate that votes Labour). MPs were supposed to use their judgement to keep people like that off the ballot-paper. They didn't and Labour is in a very tight spot as a result.
It is a bit rich calling either Benn or Skinner principled. That is only a word for people whose private and public lives match.
Eg Benn dodged a large amount of Inheritance Tax, after 30 years or more campaigning for redistribution.
Things can change quickly in politics but Labour should be under no illusions – things are serious and Labour needs to do something about it fast.
.
.
Labour is currently an order of magnitude more bat-shit crazy than the IDS Tory party.
.
In what way are current Tory policies different to when IDS was leader? Genuine question.
Sorry I went to bed.
The Conservative party of the IDS era was, in my eyes, a very different beast from the Cameron led party erything was deregulation. Whilst there are still elements who believe that that has not been the policy.
It was a party that was obsessed with cutting taxes as the solution to pretty much all the government's ills. The Coalition and this government obviously inherited a different and horrendous situation but they have increased taxes to maintain public spending in real terms.
Is someone of the centre right I disagree with even more of what Corbyn says than I did of IDS. But they were both unpleasant distortions and extremes.
Agree with most of that but Osborne has cut inheritance and income tax and public spending as a share of gdp
He has cut the top tax rate from 50 to 45% and raised the threshold for low earners and the inheritance tax threshold for middle earners
C'mon, the 50p rate was a political blip, in place for weeks under Gordon Brown - not because he believed it would raise more money, but as a landmine for the Tories to detonate when they inevitably had to reduce it because it was the wrong point on the Laffer curve.
Osborne still cut it even despite the flack and got reelected
Osborne put it up from the 40p introduced by Maggie and held by Blair and Brown for all but a few weeks of their 13 year reign.
Ignore the 50p political gimmick rate introduced by Brown.
(snip)Mr. Corbyn should be treated with respect not only out of courtesy, though that would be decent, but out of self interest. The hysterical hatred being demonstrated by some who post here may gratify the partisan but it is part of a dangerous process that may undermine democracy. (snip)
No.
I don't hate Corbyn, but I do not respect him. I do not respect his views, I do not respect his 'friends', and I do not respect many of his policies.
Asking me to 'respect' Corbyn when he is, in my mind, so utterly unworthy of respect, is in itself treating me with a certain lack of respect.
I do respect the position of LOTO, but he is only a temporary incumbent of that position.
Excellent post. Respect needs to be earned not demanded.
There is a view, with which I agree, that the primary function of a Parliament in a Parliamentary democracy is to provide consent to Government. If increasing numbers of people come to believe that voting is a waste of time because either a) they live where their vote will not matter. Or b) that no party that they wish to vote for has any chance of proportionate representation, then we all have a problem.
Whilst it clearly irks some posters on PB that a significant section of the electorate want to vote for a socialist, that does not change the reality that they do. An establishment campaign that demonstrates that there is no chance of their views ever being fairly represented will eventually undermine the legitimacy of that establishment and of liberal democracy itself.
Mr. Corbyn should be treated with respect not only out of courtesy, though that would be decent, but out of self interest. The hysterical hatred being demonstrated by some who post here may gratify the partisan but it is part of a dangerous process that may undermine democracy.
While interpretations of low-turnout elections carry a health warning, looks like in the Tory-held seats some of the UKIP vote is switching Con. Notable difference with the Labour-held Pontefract where UKIP had become the alternative to labour and saw their vote improve to the detriment of the tories. Seems like some tactical "anyone but Labour" from the Right. This goes to show UKIP will have trouble in the South where the tories can paint themselves as the only alternative to the Labour commies (just like at the GE with SNP scare), while their prospect in the North might be somewhat better.
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
It's touch and go whether Lab2. The Metropolitan Boroughs don't much matter. It's their performance in unitary councils and districts that should concern them.
It is about Corbyn surviving not victory and it was a by election which toppled IDS probably same for Corbyn
Which by election was that? During the 2001 to 2005 Parliament all the by elections were LAB defences
Besides London and Scotland, Labour are by no means assured of keeping an overall majority in Wales and are highly likely to lose seats in the local elections in England (the equivalent round was in 2012 when Labour were riding high). Next May could be a grim round of election results for Labour, giving the ABCs their pretext to move.
Jeremy Corbyn really needs Sadiq Khan to win.
Labour will hold Wales and Corbyn will get huge leads in metropolitan councils next year as well as the London Assembly
I think that's a very 'brave ' prediction. The outer London boroughs certainly could produce a very different score to some of the inner boroughs. Also not sure that Khan will go down all that well in parts of north and north-west London. As for Wales Labour might lose their absolute majority.
Labour has a double digit lead in London and will be ahead in Wales
Which polls are those?
Every poll since Corbyn won has Labour with a double digit lead in London
(snip)Mr. Corbyn should be treated with respect not only out of courtesy, though that would be decent, but out of self interest. The hysterical hatred being demonstrated by some who post here may gratify the partisan but it is part of a dangerous process that may undermine democracy. (snip)
No.
I don't hate Corbyn, but I do not respect him. I do not respect his views, I do not respect his 'friends', and I do not respect many of his policies.
Asking me to 'respect' Corbyn when he is, in my mind, so utterly unworthy of respect, is in itself treating me with a certain lack of respect.
I do respect the position of LOTO, but he is only a temporary incumbent of that position.
I am not sure you actually understand what the word 'respect' means. It doesn't mean how much you agree with his views. If nearly doubling his party's membership and clearly winning an election that he was initially widely predicted to not only lose but to be humiliated in doesn't earn your respect you can't be an easy person to please.
Comments
Edit. Correction - more detail on the results showed UKIP up 13% in Labour Pontefract while well down in the 4 Tory wards last night. So not so good for Corbyn at all.
The failure to breakthrough into parliament keeps them marginalised and their MEPs are irrelevant.
Meanwhile, he's actually getting on with some quite solid Tory stuff.
They have 30 seats out of 60. So, it is already a Labour minority government but in practice either the LibDems or Plaid Cymru or both generally support Labour. There is horsetrading with both LibDems and Plaid Cymru to get the budget through, for example.
Labour will maybe lose 2 or 3 seats, but the administration after 2016 will look much like the one that is already running Wales.
I doubt it will have much of an effect on Corbyn's position.
Brilliant work, all in, for a single-issue pressure group, which of course is what UKIP is.
What they do now, however, now that their work is complete I do not know. Worst/most wasteful option is for them to behave and think that they are somehow an actual political party.
Which, possibly, didn’t do PC a lot of good.
I don't think that Cameron is too concerned about this, he just does what he needs to do to for himself and his party to continue in power.
The SNP were able to make "Yes" synonyous in people's minds with voting for the party itself, and could work backwards from 46% to their share. (Nobody will remember the Greens.)
And, once again, why is Europe the only subject that isn't allowed to be "banged on about". Whenever Cameron has done something very eurosceptic, he's gone up in the polls. Maybe we should restrict "no banging on about" to things like inequality or housing?
hat's why the stuff about it being terrible that Corbyn was allowed to stand by the 36 MPs is so misplaced - an effort to prevent someone who was overwhelmingly preferred by the selectorate would have been misplaced. A centre-left alternative needs to be based on a better appeal, not a nomination stitch-up.
To be fair, I've not noticed a lot of hatred of Corbyn here. Scorn, yes, but hatred no. People would be quite happy to see him in the Skinner/Benn role as the principled leftist hero who loses. What gives an edge to it is the fear of the centre-left that he'll spoil the chance of an alternative to the Tories, and the fear of the right that he might surprise them.
I see labour supporters' belief in their Divine Right to be one of the two major parties is alive and well.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/09/iain-dale-in-defence-of-call-me-dave.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Friday+25th+September+2015&utm_content=Friday+25th+September+2015+CID_a817961a83f5daa3931a94bf75a19116&utm_source=Daily Email&utm_term=In defence of Call me Dave
http://www.newstalk.com/Police-apologise-for-using-sirens-to-settle-argument-over-whether-they-go-neenaw-or-woowoo
Lessons for the fire industry?
"This book is a serious work." - hmm. Given the author (well, the one who's bothered to do interviews) won't defend the claim that's gotten most media coverage as true and included it based on one anonymous source repeating it [without the need for any pesky evidence], I'm not sure Dale's definition of 'serious' is the same as everyone else's.
Crowberries are sub-arctic tundra plants which grow in the wild and are edible. I know this not because I go foraging in Scandinavia, but because I wanted as realistic as possible a basis for the Kuhrland in Journey to Altmortis. I'm not saying my fantasy story is more realistic than the vendetta-driven hatchet job of a biography, I'm just including this anecdote in my post and allowing readers of PB to make up their own minds.
I hate him.
He has consorted with the most monstrous, hateful, disgusting people. And not, like politicians throughout the world from a sense of realpolitik, but because he supports their causes.
That is hateful.
There are some areas of increased spending. Our new expanded Emergency dept is being funded by the Trust Development Agency rather than by a PFI sleight of hand.
I'm not convinced.
It's true that had the same line-up gone into an election on the 2010 rules, Corbyn would probably still have won. He'd have taken half the membership vote, maybe a tenth of the MPs but about two-thirds of union members. That'd have given him around 42-43% on the first round which probably would have been enough to see him over the line, though it would have been close. Under the pre-OMOV rules, he'd certainly have won with the overwhelming support of union block votes.
However, all this masks what the essential role of the nomination process is about, which is keeping some sanity in the process and minimising the risk of precisely the kind of takeover which has occurred. As the figures Mike put up the other day show, the election result was representative of Labour's electorate, not the wider one (not even that part of the GE electorate that votes Labour). MPs were supposed to use their judgement to keep people like that off the ballot-paper. They didn't and Labour is in a very tight spot as a result.
When I went to the PPC interview it was made clear that eventually ukip would seek to differentiate by skin colour so that there would be fewer non whites in the UK. It wouldn't matter if they held EU passports or not, a way would be found to stop them.
Muslims would be held in a detention centre a la Guantanamo Bay
The national anthem (english) would be changed to this
http://youtu.be/29Mg6Gfh9Co
Eg Benn dodged a large amount of Inheritance Tax, after 30 years or more campaigning for redistribution.
Ignore the 50p political gimmick rate introduced by Brown.
New thread new thread
Betting PostF1: pre-qualifying piece up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/japan-pre-qualifying.html
Backed Sainz to reach Q3 at 3.5. Given qualifying will be dry and P1/P2 were wet, it may be a shade brave, but I do think he's mispriced.