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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling shows the Labour Party brand in big trouble
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling shows the Labour Party brand in big trouble
Today’s poll looked at public perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron and the Labour and Conservative Party brands in detail. In addition to voting intention and asking respondents which of Cameron or Corbyn would make the ‘most capable Prime Minister’, the poll also listed a series of statements and asked which of them applied to each party and their leaders.
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22% WORSE than Miliband.
Just let that sink in.
Other polls have Labour on 30-32% so Mori may be a little high, but nonetheless Labour have clearly at least held the 30% Miliband won and maybe added to it a little
I wouldn't trust Corbyn further than I could spit a rat tbh.
So the conference is becoming more critical all the time. Bring it on!
I had Jerusalem at my wedding. I thinking it's an exceptionally stirring hymn.
I'd have no problem with it being England's anthem. Unofficially, it already is.
But I thought the Tories would be in the 285-310 seat bracket, at absolute best. Never in my wildest dreams would I have predicted a majority.
Well, ok. I did dream it last November as a 25% shot: https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
Let the public makes up its own mind. Corbyn will probably win more from those who did not vote in the recent past or voted Green than what he might lose to the Tories.
Oh, wait a minute..
Corbyn's net rating among all voters is minus 3, with Labour voters it is plus 41
And as well as gaining from DNV, some Labour voters may decide to stay indoors on the day; not wanting to vote for a Corbyn-led party, but not wanting to vote for anyone else.
Front bench would have hated him for it, but by that stage in the contest how many votes did they have?
Corbyn will stab us in the face, not the back.
He's worse than Portillo in 2001
I really do think that we need a thread on AV in order to educate them.. Public service and all that, Mr Eagles.
How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/07/01/how-the-alternative-vote-system-could-stop-burnham-becoming-labour-leader/
Guardian news @guardiannews 5m5 minutes ago
Pope skipped 'slave to finance' section from Congress speech unintentionally http://d.gu.com/CFssGH
The former minister and adviser to Tony Blair offers his view in a private paper that circulated to political associates last week in which he urges those on the right of the party to dig in for the “long haul”.
In his paper, Lord Mandelson writes: “In choosing Corbyn instead of Ed Miliband, the general public now feel we are just putting two fingers up to them, exchanging one loser for an even worse one. We cannot be elected with Corbyn as leader.
http://bit.ly/1OVRPih
Perhaps with a permanent stop at Stafford?
I was in the 40% but the 60% did like what he said.
What is the current Labour position on this question? Does anybody know?
I phrased it very badly, what I intended to say was that Burnham would have expected to win if he had gone for broke on the welfare bill.
Never easy to do the counterfactuals, but it might even be possible that he could have nipped the Corbynmania in the bud - there were even twittotumbling baby lefties doing a Burnhamania thing in the early days of the campaign, had he chosen to "speak truth to power" by stabbing all his front-bench mates in the back he might just have been the one to claim the hopenchange mantle. He can at least be more charismatic than Corbyn, when he's in full-on "social justice" mode there is a subset of Corbynites that he would have appealed to.
• Cooper warned interim leader Harriet Harman that her decision not to oppose the welfare bill was handing Jeremy Corbyn victory and she threatened to quit the shadow cabinet if Harman refused to let Labour MPs vote against the welfare bill
• Supporters of Burnham believe he could have won the contest if he had quit the shadow cabinet over the welfare issue and say the episode was the turning point in his defeat.
• The Kendall team commissioned private YouGov polling as early as late June which showed the party membership opposed austerity and further spending cuts, making the Kendall team realise they were out of the running.
Well, quite.
The trouble is, there is absolutely no chance of 'Labour' doing something about this fast. What is Labour? It's a party led by Corbyn and McDonnell, bankrolled by McCluskey, with a backroom team comprising Ken Livingstone staffers, and whose members - even without the affiliates and three-quidders - has just given a massive mandate to its new leadership. Far from doing anything to trash their own mandate, those who now control the party will be doing the exact, diametric opposite: moving to increase their control over the party.
For the dwindling band of sane Labour activists, MPs and staffers, there is no comfort. All they can do - assuming they don't just give up and go and do something more constructive with their lives - is hang on in there, limiting the damage if they can, in the hope that, eventually, something might turn up to change things. They're probably in for a long wait.
There are a lot of Labour MPs sitting on the Opposition Benches, and we really do need to educate them.
Next time, they might even campaign for AV - even if it means going along with their manifesto pledge.
Furthermore I think you understate the caution with which polling data should be treated, at least until someone has credibly explained how, before the last GE, polling companies managed to detect two mutually exclusive trends were happening at the same time and one company didn't publish a poll because, "It didn't feel right" , though it just happened to be accurate..
FWiW EdM is Hague.
But it was just a failure of credibility and competence. If that was your only problem now you'd be in a much, much better position.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/647158614889754624
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
In light of this much of the broadside against Corbyn was wasted. Some people marginally picked up that quite a lot of this broadside was coming from Labour party sources, fellow travellers etc which has given the impression that Labour is more disunited than they were before and probably one or two of the old quotes have hit home but that is it.
What happens next may well be different. The chances of getting through this Conference without some fairly senior resignations from the Shadow Cabinet are slight indeed. Again most people will never have heard of those resigning and will not really care what they are saying but the picture of disunity will be enhanced.
Much more serious would be the risk that a significant part of the PLP start to make it even clearer that they will not support Corbyn or vote for his policies. I think the chances of this being overt are smaller but they are not insignificant. This would make the disunity theme pretty much permanent.
The next stage of seriousness would be defections/ a new party. I think this is much, much less likely but if it happens it may well be the end of the Labour party as a party of government.
Whilst I do think these options are in decreasing levels of probability there has to be a real chance that until Corbyn goes this is as good as it gets for Labour. It is also much more likely that someone stuck in their ways, not used to this level of scrutiny and frankly a bit dim is going to screw up than not.
Not only because of the neckandneckasm but because seriously, if someone called you up four years from an election and asked you anything about that election you wouldn't even bother to mute X Factor or Strictly while you had a laugh with them.
Apart from the polls that say Jezza is worse than useless. Those are 100% dead-eyed bolted on accurate.
The Mail refer to the "political book of the decade" - anyone know what they're talking about?
And Labourites handwaving it away or comparing it to IDS isn't convincing anyone. Bar The Morning Star, Gerry Adams and the Argentine/Russian Embassies - who's saying nice thing about Corbyn's Labour right now?
It's just so appallingly bad whichever way you look at it.
You should be worried, very worried because too many people who have dispaired of the present political system have discovered hope, and now realise that they can make a change.
I wonder if the Mail are thinking "Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......"
If only three more people agree tonight, then the PB threshold will be breached. The effects of this are currently undetermined, but might involve JackW reverting to a 3-year old, OGH starring in a haircare advert, and SeanT becoming a shy and retiring nun.
All OGH´s fault for going off on holiday of course. Inevitable that it would mean a lot of extra work for you.
That's a good point. I agree.
(a) was only chosen as a result of a forced choice between him and a Europhile, and
(b) was chosen by a tiny membership, that could easily be outvoted by an expansion in membership
In Labour's case the membership picked Corbyn by a landslide in a four-way race, including people from the mainstream of the party. It is also a huge membership that isn't going anywhere, and you'd need hundreds of thousands of members to make up the difference.
Mike always assures me nothing major will happen when he goes on holiday.
At least Greece didn't nearly leave the Eurozone this time.
The Tory party that chose IDS was old, intolerant, obsessed with Europe, rigid in its thinking and much more interested in itself than it was in the country as a whole. A Corbyn led Labour party seems out of touch on many important issues but over the generality I would say they are in the same ballpark.
I thought that the original No Right Turn was rather clever. Now it appears that I may have overestimated Jonathan's wit and his avatars are merely a series of roadsigns. Shame.
(I don't know how to do the laughing like a drain smiley that Sunil uses)