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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Call me Dave”: The Ashcroft revelations in the Mail appear
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Call me Dave”: The Ashcroft revelations in the Mail appear to have run out of steam
The “revelations” from Day 4 of the Daily Mail’s serialisation of Lord Ashcroft’s unofficial biography of Mr Cameron don’t quite have the potency of what we saw earlier in the week.
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This raises at least four new areas of potential danger :
- the FBI finds evidence that warrants criminal charges against Hillary and/or her aides
- the FBI agrees on the preservation of emails it finds in the course of its investigation and provides them to the various congressional investigations underway
- Hillary's retrieved personal emails are leaked and reveal politically damaging but not criminal activities, e.g. relating to the Clinton Foundation, or pay to play
- retrieved emails prove that Hillary has lied in her statements about the emails or the server.
Also makes Tim Farron' s speech yesterday look even more mind-numbingly stupid. All we need now is for Labour to abandon the welfare cap and Trident at their conference....
Yes, but. Politically it is the most damaging, but since its been buried in a tidal wave of effluent and trivia it will be easy to bat away with 'How can anyone believe anything from an author who claims x y & z.....'
1. Winning the Democratic Nomination and
2 Winning the POTUS Election in November next year.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
I would think she is somewhere in the 60-70% range for the nomination. If she is nominated, I'd put her at no better than evens to win against any decent GOP candidate, and probably in the 45-48% range against the most electable of the GOP runners (Bush, Rubio, Christie or Kasich). More bad news, or an announcement that Biden is in the race (particularly if Obama openly or tacitly endorses him) could change my perceptions of those odds in a heartbeat. Likewise, if Biden does not enter, nor does any other viable Dem, her odds of getting the nod will increase, with a lesser positive effect on her POTUS chances.
Given I am convinced Trump, Carson nor Fiorina are low probabilities to get the nod, I would think Hillary's overall chances for POTUS measured from this point in time should be 40-50%. Might be lower, not good at calculating the probabilities of all the possibilities so they add up to 1.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3246796/Dave-frosty-breakfast-Queen-Balmoral-showdown-Scottish-crisis-left-PM-terrified-humbled.html
‘David was very active in ensuring that the Government side of the campaign delivered what was needed,’ says Cooper. ‘At any point where somebody asked him to put a call in to X, Y, Z, he just did it . . .
‘I don’t think it’s fair to fault him, given how incredibly weak the stock of the Tories in Scotland is. It was very disciplined of him to acknowledge that — to be willing to be guided.
‘He deferred to the advice of the Scots, he deferred to the people on the campaign and he deferred to the Labour people. He did exactly what he was advised to do when he was advised to do it.....
Until then, Brown had been aloof — contenting himself, in the words of one insider, with ‘just throwing grenades at the campaign’. He was never seen in the Better Together offices and refused to work with Tories.
‘He’d just sit on his own and come up with his ideas without any consultation,’ one senior member of the No team recalls. ‘The man was just awful.
Remember how terribly keen the Nats were for Cameron to debate Salmond - nay, insisting that it was bound to happen.....
"Bra Baroness Bags A Jag On The Taxpayer"
Ye gods Mrs JackW might demand a Bentley from her funding source ....
Bins out for four weeks before being collected. Lovely.
It reminded me of the "Great Leader"
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/04_02/gordonbrownPA_468x563.jpg
Recall that the whole nomination process is a marathon with knobs on. Within the GOP early runners often don't make the cut although the cash rich Trump ego insurgency may confound.
The GOP field is also so turnip rich that it's would send any PB SNP waller in the direction of any handy harvester.
Even a slightly weakened Clinton remains the candidate to beat and against the present GOP (turnip) field she will emerge as the rather more tasty prospect for the consumer come next year.
Yes, but it will only really have heat if Ashcroft has documentary evidence (e.g. emails) between the two of them indicating that Cameron knew. Otherwise it becomes a case of conflicting testimonies, and the fact that Ashcroft is obviously suffering from some form of revenge madness damages his testimony.
France called for an international conference on refugees, with President Francois Hollande singling out the US and Canada for having to "do their bit".
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34344346
The US is by a long way the largest donor, followed by the UK.......
But it would be a bit churlish to do so: he won the referendum, after all.
From the Daily Mail's serialisation of Ashcroft's homage to Dave:
In the final fortnight, however, Brown threw himself into the campaign, delivering a series of barnstorming speeches across Scotland. His final speech, the day before the vote, ‘was just the most powerful 15-minute speech I’ve ever heard in my life’, says a Tory member of the No team.
As old divisions healed, Brown even started working closely with Cameron. Indeed, after the Prime Minister’s depressing weekend at Balmoral, the two men actually spoke on the phone to each other every day. Cameron’s final speech was even sent to Brown for approval.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3246796/Dave-frosty-breakfast-Queen-Balmoral-showdown-Scottish-crisis-left-PM-terrified-humbled.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3246796/Dave-frosty-breakfast-Queen-Balmoral-showdown-Scottish-crisis-left-PM-terrified-humbled.html
My record on calling US Presidential elections says not
You missed out this bit |!!!!!!!!!!!!
"But there were simmering tensions from the start, which developed into constant rivalry and infighting. Nor did it help that former Prime Minister Gordon Brown — who harboured a bitter grudge against Alistair Darling — was often bad-tempered and unco-operative.
There was one particularly exasperating telephone exchange between campaign director Blair McDougall — a Labour activist — and Gordon Brown.
While they were still speaking, McDougall scrawled the word ‘loon’ on a piece of paper and held it aloft for his colleagues to see. They struggled to hide their mirth.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3246796/Dave-frosty-breakfast-Queen-Balmoral-showdown-Scottish-crisis-left-PM-terrified-humbled.html#ixzz3mdJRB67b
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!
According to a No 10 insider, the Prime Minister had to bite his tongue as his predecessor lectured him on how he should have run the campaign.
‘Gordon Brown couldn’t resist saying: “I’m the saviour of the world, and you take my advice,” ’ the source revealed.
Cameron’s view, he says, was indulgent. ‘That’s Gordon,’ said the Prime Minister, wisely refusing to rise to the bait.
Will also be interested to see if the Hilary e-mail thing is getting any traction. Of course there is a risk that they might want to talk about law but I try to avoid that wherever possible. It is just too dull.
Moving forward that tells us:
1. There will be no further Westminster-sanctioned Indy referendums while he is PM.
2. The government is likely to give ground on the Scotland Act.
3. Whoever takes over as PM is going to be crucial to whether the Union survives. Osborne probably cares, Boris probably doesn't.
I expect it'll all be over in 10 years.
Labour played the Ashcroft card continually, as far back as pre-2005. It made little difference then; it will make less now given that Ashcroft's influence is now nil or negative.
I can't imagine well established lawyers (who can afford a week long jolly to Scotland) taking the likes of Trump even vaguely seriously but we shall see.
According to a poll of 165,000 adults Office for National Statistics, Bolsover in Derbyshire came lowest for happiness, worthiness and life satisfaction.
What a truly beastly finding.
In the same poll, Bolsover was followed by: 2. Cannock Chase 3. Dundee 4. Dover 5. Liverpool.
Perhaps it's simply my my imagination, but is it not the the case that the inhabitants of most if not all these areas are deluged with state benefits.
Cameron is loyal to his friends and those who are loyal to him but holds grudges against those who cross him as well as anyone in politics. Ask David Davis.
As ever, the public chose to disappoint and decided that they simply didn't want some ban the bomb, high tax, high welfare politician having a significant say.
I'd be surprised if much has changed.
Corbyn Labour and the Greens are verging on indistinguishable now that the Greens have decided that putting terrorists out of business is a bad thing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34339925
I'm surprised about Cannock Chase being so low (*). Haven't we a semi-regular posted from that area?
(*) Mind you, I was last on the chase a couple of years ago, when I was in the company of a rather large rifle.
(**) I know men shouldn't brag about the size of their guns, but in this case it was my sister's. Phnar phnar.
Our High Street seems to be wall to wall coffee shops these days but there doesn't seem to be a lot of smelling going on.
Which reminds me of one of the things I like about Washington DC - in restaurants nice middle class black families being waited on by nice working class white folks.....in contrast with much of the rest of the country.....
No, it doesn't, for a host of reasons. A 'Yes' vote would have led to the immediate start of negotiations, and Cameron would have realised that resigning immediately would have caused chaos and put 'our' side of the negotiations on the back foot.
1. Fermanagh and Omagh
2. Ribble Valley
3. Eilean Siar (wherever that might be!)
4. West Somerset
5. Orkney Islands
Taken as a group, not exactly the first five places which would immediately spring to mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqOQAl_MrcM
- we offer them loan guarantees
- football bungs
- access to our rail contracts
Surely the point is we sell to them.
Osborne is China's best salesman.
#kowtow
Liverpool are Spurs -1 season
The revelations keep on coming
It will be interesting to see how many join the Lib Dems after the Labour and Tory conferences
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34113658
F1: Perez stays at Force India. Had been some murmurings he might be off elsewhere (perhaps Lotus), but no:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34344137
On-topic: sounds like the Big Book of Revenge has some lurid claims even the author* won't defend as true and many pages of tedium.
*Has Ashcroft been interviewed about his book?
as someone who gets it in the neck every so often on PB for being a miserable bastard it appears I've always lived in some of the happiest places in the UK. So what are the rest of you like ? :-)
I've never been there, and really want to go. I've got an offer of a bed from a friend on one of the islands, but I never get the chance to go. Mind you, I'd just end up walking around their coasts, although it might be a bit quicker to do than the mainland.
Truth be told, Life has given me everything and more I could ever have wanted. I have been blessed.
It'll be interesting to see if a major foreign construction firm can follow all our rules and regulations, yet build much cheaper than our home grown Balfours, Costains and Laings.
(*) Possibly over-valued at that.
we have 2000 jobs heading down the bowl in Redcar because of Chinese steel, HMG can borrow cheaper than Chinese banks but we still issue guarantees and now we knife our own construction companies.
GO is just useless.
Once upon a time British nuclear (and other) engineers were among the world’s best. What’s happened?
And why is a Conservative Government disposing of British interest in industry in this fashion?
One of my major customers is currently pulling his hair out on a project that should have been placed back in March but still no order as the mobile goalposts just won't stay still.
The figures showed that activity at A&E departments was at its lowest level for July in the past five years, with staff dealing with 131,948 cases.
Well done, NHS Scotland!
Qualifying is at 6am on Saturday. The race start is 5am on Sunday. The reason for the quite early start is to give more daylight towards the end of the race, particularly if it's extended due to a red flag, following the accident Bianchi suffered last year (this early start time applies to a couple of other races as well, I think).
Queen Elizabeth the First of Britain is clearly Queen Elizabeth the Second of England at heart. Fair enough, but do not complain when royalty despite Witchell's fawnings continues to be as popular as a fart in a spacesuit north of the Tweed.
You do love to turn success into failure.
The rail industry does not help itself in its inability to meet promised goals (see Network Rail's many failures).
On another point, governments have always moved goalposts, so why the massive increase we've seen over the last couple of decades?
As the Daily Mail revelations slowly fizzle out, much to everyone’s disappointment, the old adage “He who seeks vengeance must dig two graves one for his enemy & one for himself” never was more apt. – Meanwhile, Isabel Oakeshott’s career is in A+E on life support.
Interesting to see that the top 5 locations are all a long way from the centres of power in London (and edinburgh for that matter).
We are left with that age old question. Is it the pig that makes the sty or the sty that makes the pig?
http://planetf1.com/news/red-bull-want-engine-parity-with-ferrari/
I'm starting to think that F1 will be better off without their involvement, *if* the team can be saved.
Demanding engine parity, ffs. If they really wanted that then they should just develop their own engine or, just perhaps, not treat the engine supplier with which they had four years of success so disgracefully.
Who'd want to supply them given the way they've treated Renault?
“people will think very carefully about the future” is as much as I'm getting from Google.