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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling for the New Statesman shows the huge bet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling for the New Statesman shows the huge between Corbyn supporters and the voters LAB needs to attract
Peter Kellner has an analysis in tomorrow’s New Statesman which includes the polling featured above on the attitude on a range of matters by Corbyn supporters, current firm and weak LAB voters, and the target groups that the party needs to bring on board at a general election.
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So the question is... how do these figures compare with Osborne supporters and Tory weak voters, or Farron supporters and LDem potentials?
I didn't even vote for Corbyn, but I would want my MP to be deselected if he started routinely voting with the Tories on things like Syria, welfare, etc.
the huge WHAT? o_O
"Sean_F said:
Following on from my last post, quite a lot of seats have moved Leftwards since 1992. The Conservatives have lost 10 seats in Scotland. Edmonton, Ilford North and South, Enfield North, Croydon North, Mitcham & Morden, Ealing Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Hayes & Harlington, Harrow West, Brent North, Westminster North, Eltham, Chorley, Lancashire West, Leeds NE and NW, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, Chester, Bury South, Bolton NE, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hall Green, Yardley, Brighton Pavilion, Hove, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Dewsbury, Luton North & South, Slough, Southampton Test, Gedling, Exeter, Tynemouth, Wirral South, Wirral West, Blackpool South, Southport, Crosby, Middlesborough South, Wolverhampton SW have all gone, some beyond recovery. That's 53 seats.
In addition, seats like Croydon Central, Brighton Kemptown, Enfield Southgate, Harrow East, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green are much more marginal than they used to be.
So, how are the Conservatives only down 5 seats on 1992? They've won a handful that were held by the Lib Dems and Labour, but mostly their gains are driven by population increase in Conservative-voting areas creating new constituencies, while population falls (or stagnation) are cutting the numbers of seats in left-wing areas."
Hurst Llama replied:-
"Is that the same as saying that seats are changing hands because of population movements rather than existing populations changing their minds about who they prefer? If so you need to be careful about about posting stuff like that on here because it comes close to saying *looks around to see who is listening and then whispers*, "white flight"
That's a factor. But there are others. A very big increase in the student/university worker population in some seats; continued drift leftwards in Scotland, Merseyside, and the urban North. Continued leftward drift among middle class voters in Greater London and core cities.
On the plus side for the Conservatives, rapid economic growth in prosperous areas fuels growth in their electorates, and in due course, growth in the number of constituencies. There is an ongoing shift of population into Conservative-voting districts from Labour-voting districts. Presumably, those who move are disproportionately right wing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34340997
Which is a very odd form of leadership. I wonder if he'll even go on stage and argue against it?
Gladly be put right if somebody can post a link.
Tax to what level? 50%, 60%? 100%?
Details, details, details.
https://twitter.com/The45Storm/status/646292469223657472
"for about the 100th time, the focus of politics should be persuasion and convincing the undecided, not just upping sticks and shifting your principles towards current vogues or norms.
Corbyn supporters think he would be a better PM than Osborne. No shit! But this means it is up to Corbyn to persuade the uncertain and the opposed, not that we all shrug our shoulders and revert to the status quo with a meek sigh."
and
"The Labour party shouldn't be some fucking wine-waiter, offering a menu to the electorate and eagerly offering to deliver unto them that which they walked in to the room with a desire for.
Our job is to change peoples' minds, challenge the existing narrative, offer people hope that they can have something to look forward to other than poverty, and a dwindling supply of opportunity. Remember "Things Can Only Get Better"? Right now, what the majority of the PLP are offering is "Things Can Only Get Slightly Less-Worse". And they wonder why the party membership has turned on them?"
You have to admire their dauntless optimism.
It says a Lada is not as preferable as a Volkswagen Diesel.
https://twitter.com/tommctague/status/646708496138924032
Most people vote for a party most of the time. Sometimes local issues might be in play but the idea they vote for an individual is a complete fantasy of the democracy deniers in their ridiculous attempts to defend FPTP.
As people vote for a party, reselection should always take place to ensure the candidate reflects the parties views.
And the best part, if this analysis is wrong and the voters do vote for individuals, then a deselected candidate can just stand without the party label and by the democracy deniers logic, they would still win the seat.
Just the other day, favourability ratings of the whole public put Corbyn and Osborne neck-and-neck.
oh, you're not joking?
er...
Blimey. Blimey. Have you not ordered anything recently? Distribution networks are almost magical in their efficiency, to the extent that you can order something in the evening and it often arrives the next day even with the standard delivery option. And they are so extraordinarily cheap that suppliers often include free delivery. If you wanted to cite an example of how competition improves service and drives down costs, you could hardly find a more clear-cut example than this.
Laughable
Yet also frustratingly, maddeningly happening here with nobody seeming to care.
Looks like the Chinese have seen George coming from a mile off.
All these arguments and fights were had in the 1980's and very enjoyable they were too for those watching. Less so for the Labour party, I think.
And if you looked in the yellow pages (do they still exist?) you would see 50 different courier companies seeking your custom to deliver parcels to the same place.
But really, as others have noted, if you are unable to see the mechanics behind having many courier companies in competition with each other then there is probably not enough bandwith on PB.com to educate you otherwise.
The new novel is "The Osbourne Ascendency"
Oh... and for those who like cars, I am starting to wonder if Volkswagen and Volkswagen dealerships will survive much longer. A sniff of Ratner in the air methinks (or is it excess emissions?)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/11883357/vw-scandal-petrol-car-risk.html
Nobody is saying that the VW Golf etc are suddenly shit.
There's a very good paper here from Lewis Baston. His conclusion that much of the Midlands is starting to vote like the South (the Conservatives did better in both East and West Midlands than in 1992, and far better outside Birmingham, Nottingham, and Leicester). The good news for Labour is that parts of the South are starting to vote like Greater London (eg Brighton, Hove, Exeter). The big political divide, as he points out, is between London and core cities vs small cities/big towns/rural areas. He finds that levels of car ownership are a significant factor in political allegiances.
http://www.progressonline.org.uk/content/uploads/2015/09/Is-‘southern-discomfort’-spreading.pdf
But standing under a party banner (and thereby benefitting from the hard work that activists do and money they pay to make sure that party banner has any currency) is a privilege, not a right.
Maybe 100-1 if they finish 2nd (Which I think they'll manage).
Not enough liquidity in the group market hence the bet.
People vote for a party and they should (quite rightly) expect their parties candidates to be willing to tow the party line.
If you want people to vote for individualism and dissent then start a party based on that.
Policies aside, I always thought Kendall came across as the best of the four candidates. She seemed like a warm, pleasant lady.
I have some sympathy for the view that good politicians try to change people's minds.
But if you want to get people to change their mind, the most important thing to do is to listen to them, do more listening than talking and get them to change their own minds almost without realising it so rather than think that they now agree with Corbyn or whoever it looks as if Labour is now a party with a leader who thinks like them, who is on their side.
Successful political parties are those who - at some very basic level - are listening to what people are saying, what they are saying in private. They don't shout "You Must" at the voter.
They can stand as independents and be elected quite freely.
Tom Blenkinsop spoke on Liz's behalf at our CLP nomination meeting - he put the Lizite case very well, and would have been a better candidate, IMHO.
And if they do go bust, there's so many about that there will be a very good independent dealer and parts ecosystems.
They've prob got posters of George Osborne on their bedroom walls, not Rayne Looney
Why trust the free market when state intervention will do?
"Meanwhile, Bolsover in Derbyshire came lowest for happiness, worthiness and life satisfaction."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34336951
I'm slightly surprised to see Cannock Chase rate so low.
In politics you have to choose. Labour needs to decide whether it prefers to be on the side of party activists or voters.
If more of them falls foul of this then the industry may be safe. The EU cannot afford to have the ENTIRE automotive sector go *boom*. If it is only Volkswagen then one sacrifice for the good of the rest might be viewed as worth it.
I suspect that good deals are going to be found on more than VW forecourts.
http://www.britishcouncil.org/society/sport/current-programmes/premier-skills
Do you object to the scheme operating in China? As the article notes, it's long-running there too.
Or is it just that you object to it being extended to Xinjiang province, which is what was announced this week?
Given that football is specifically associated with Britain among the Anglosphere countries, it looks like a novel way of getting some soft influence.
In effect, the UK works as an electoral college, where constituencies return party representatives. Like any electoral college the voter should expect those representatives to vote in the way their party is offering through its manifesto, leadership and activists.
Anything else is an insult to the decision of the voters to back and party. Your highly contradictory nonsense even admits this when you say "inclined to vote Labour".
@isam Look who makes an appearance at 00:55 !!!
Taxpayer funded jollies for a certain ref dear to all Arsenal fans' hearts