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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : September 17th 2015

SystemSystem Posts: 12,292
edited 2015 18 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : September 17th 2015

Noel Park (Lab defence) and Woodside (Lab defence) on Haringey
Noel Park
Result: Labour 1,005 (61% +6%), Liberal Democrats 247 (15% +1%), Conservatives 178 (11% +5%), Green Party 124 (8% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 48 (3% -3%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 38 (2%, no candidate in 2014)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 758 (46%) on a swing of 2.5% from Liberal Democrat to Labour

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Greens are getting hit badly by Corbyn it seems.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    That would have been a belter of a try for Fiji if he hadn't dropped it.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited 2015 18
    FPT,

    James O'Brien is just a highly partisan left-winger isn't he? I don't know why his show gets so much attention.

    No wonder the BBC hired him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    edited 2015 18
    ORB poll finds Corbyn loses one fifth of Lab voters but improves Lab's prospect well with SNP supporters

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPNXY_7WEAEDOW1.jpg

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/644959461698850816
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited 2015 18
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB poll finds Corbyn loses one fifth of Lab voters but improves Lab's prospect well with SNP supporters

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPNXY_7WEAEDOW1.jpg

    So from about 30% to about 24%.

    Some wise pundit on here predicted he would take them below 25% in the next couple of polls just last night. :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Alanbrooke


    "Anyway shouldn't your chickeny relative be leading the Labour fight back ? Old granny Sturgeon has just made her first mistake today."

    A ladder in her tights for her first appearance in Vogue?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    I bloody hate the TMOs. Buggers denied England the World Cup in 2007
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I bloody hate the TMOs. Buggers denied England the World Cup in 2007

    By point out the English player's foot was in touch? Those buggers.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Does anyone know how much it costs to get a poll commissioned be it national or ashcroft style constituency polling? You know.. you just incase I ever run into a lot of money...
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    If we estimate Labour has gone from 31% to 25% that's a six point drop. Let's imagine they take two points from the green, so an eight point loss to other parties. Give four to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, two to UKIP. Baxter predicts a 108 seat majority.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    Pauly said:

    Does anyone know how much it costs to get a poll commissioned be it national or ashcroft style constituency polling? You know.. you just incase I ever run into a lot of money...

    A national phone poll costs somewhere around 15k to 20k. An online poll can cost 8k to 12k

    Specific constituency polling can be around 25k to 30k as they can only be conducted by phone.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Matt Singh @MattSingh_
    @stephenkb 3) If it were actually a fifth (6% swing) it would only be a 130-seat Con majority* so not as bad as 1983

    *on current boundaries
    JEO said:

    If we estimate Labour has gone from 31% to 25% that's a six point drop. Let's imagine they take two points from the green, so an eight point loss to other parties. Give four to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, two to UKIP. Baxter predicts a 108 seat majority.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,358
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB poll finds Corbyn loses one fifth of Lab voters but improves Lab's prospect well with SNP supporters

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPNXY_7WEAEDOW1.jpg

    One in five Labour voters more likely to vote Tory. Not even LibDem or UKIP. It's that bad.

    Cheerio Midlands, suburban London, chunks of Wales, south Yorks, Lancs....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738
    Roger said:

    Alanbrooke


    "Anyway shouldn't your chickeny relative be leading the Labour fight back ? Old granny Sturgeon has just made her first mistake today."

    A ladder in her tights for her first appearance in Vogue?

    Doing a double spread with Salmond for Hugh Hefner.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Plato_Says said:

    Matt Singh @MattSingh_
    @stephenkb 3) If it were actually a fifth (6% swing) it would only be a 130-seat Con majority* so not as bad as 1983

    *on current boundaries

    JEO said:

    If we estimate Labour has gone from 31% to 25% that's a six point drop. Let's imagine they take two points from the green, so an eight point loss to other parties. Give four to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, two to UKIP. Baxter predicts a 108 seat majority.

    That assumes the Tories get all six points.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I bloody hate the TMOs. Buggers denied England the World Cup in 2007

    By point out the English player's foot was in touch? Those buggers.
    Stop bringing in facts to my rants.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    I'll cover the ORB properly tomorrow. I'm entitled to an evening off and well the rugby's on.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB poll finds Corbyn loses one fifth of Lab voters but improves Lab's prospect well with SNP supporters

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPNXY_7WEAEDOW1.jpg

    One in five Labour voters more likely to vote Tory. Not even LibDem or UKIP. It's that bad.

    Cheerio Midlands, suburban London, chunks of Wales, south Yorks, Lancs....
    You mean it;s that bad 80% of Labour voters are still stupid enough to vote for them ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 18
    The OBR poll is not a voting intention poll, it's a likelyhood poll, 37% of Labour voters say they are less likely to vote Labour and 20% more likely to vote Tory than before.
    JEO said:

    If we estimate Labour has gone from 31% to 25% that's a six point drop. Let's imagine they take two points from the green, so an eight point loss to other parties. Give four to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, two to UKIP. Baxter predicts a 108 seat majority.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,081
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB poll finds Corbyn loses one fifth of Lab voters but improves Lab's prospect well with SNP supporters

    Of course only people who have already swallowed the SNP's nonsense would fall for someone like Corbyn and his merry men. Can you win an election on the nutter vote?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,236
    SeanT said:

    Nooooooo!!

    Too early. We need Corby to get a bit of a bounce, not plunge into the poop immediately.

    *frowns*

    *sort of*

    Sean, have you seen that post near the end of the last thread about mental institutions? How many criteria do you think you meet? :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: New party leaders leading "a massive popular movement" are not supposed to lose a 5th of their party's votes in their first week in charge.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited 2015 18
    Speedy said:

    The OBR poll is not a voting intention poll, it's a likelyhood poll, 37% of Labour voters say they are less likely to vote Labour and 20% more likely to vote Tory than before.

    JEO said:

    If we estimate Labour has gone from 31% to 25% that's a six point drop. Let's imagine they take two points from the green, so an eight point loss to other parties. Give four to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, two to UKIP. Baxter predicts a 108 seat majority.

    I can't believe they would report something that badly.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    'ORB poll finds Corbyn loses one fifth of Lab voters but improves Lab's prospect well with SNP supporters '


    Would have been even worse if the poll had been conducted after McDonnell appeared on QT.


  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,418
    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    The OBR poll is not a voting intention poll, it's a likelyhood poll, 37% of Labour voters say they are less likely to vote Labour and 20% more likely to vote Tory than before.

    JEO said:

    If we estimate Labour has gone from 31% to 25% that's a six point drop. Let's imagine they take two points from the green, so an eight point loss to other parties. Give four to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, two to UKIP. Baxter predicts a 108 seat majority.

    I can't believe they would report something that badly.
    They have. We need to see some proper polls.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    Almost three in four people do not believe that Jeremy Corbyn looks like a prime minister-in-waiting, according to a poll for The Independent.

    A survey of 2,000 people found that Mr Corbyn’s election as Labour leader has made one in five people who voted for his party at the May general election more likely to vote Conservative next time. Some 37 per cent of Labour voters say they are less likely to back the party at the next election.

    The ORB findings will fuel the debate among Labour MPs after what many view as a poor performance by Mr Corbyn in his first week as leader. Critics are already plotting how to remove the veteran left-winger, with some saying they will move against him if Labour fails to win the London mayoral election next May

    The survey, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, found only 28 per cent of people agree with the statement “Jeremy Corbyn looks like a prime minister-in-waiting”, while 72 per cent disagree.

    http://ind.pn/1FlnHKS
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The more/less likely type questions are always difficult to interpret, someone could go from being 100% certain not to vote for someone to 99% and it still counts as more likely. I'm sure we'll get some proper voting intention polls this weekend.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Alanbrooke

    Quite a coup for Hugh

    https://img0.etsystatic.com/025/0/8742404/il_340x270.567262040_pnyv.jpg
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,106
    Evening all :)

    A lot of the usual suspects salivating over a poll which, considering the week of almost continuous hostility he has endured in the Press, isn't that bad for Jeremy Corbyn.

    My view is he hasn't done too badly - it's a transition from being a candidate to being a leader in terms of infrastructure and a team and clearly the lack of support was evident in the first couple of days. PMQs looked much better and it will be interesting to see how the Labour Conference develops.

    As I suggested before he won the leadership election, Corbyn has tacked on a range of issues from what he said to what he's saying now and I suspect that journey will continue.

    The problem he has is the first impression lingers. Did Kinnock falling in the sea at Brighton (possibly) create an impression of him that resonated throughout his tenure ? Possibly. just as Hague at the Notting Hill Carnival or Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich became symbols of how they came to be perceived.

    Corbyn not singing the National Anthem has become a cause celebre or just a stick to beat him with. Absurd but it may stick long after the Government has run into its own troubles.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    Just stuck in another tweet
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I bloody hate the TMOs. Buggers denied England the World Cup in 2007

    By point out the English player's foot was in touch? Those buggers.
    Stop bringing in facts to my rants.
    My apologies. You'll never top your defence of that purple England kit/jacket though. That was hideous.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738
    Roger said:

    Alanbrooke

    Quite a coup for Hugh

    https://img0.etsystatic.com/025/0/8742404/il_340x270.567262040_pnyv.jpg

    and that;s just Alex
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Who is ORB?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Alanbrooke

    'You mean it;s that bad 80% of Labour voters are still stupid enough to vote for them ?'


    If you wait a few minutes Mr Palmer will be along to put a positive spin on it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I bloody hate the TMOs. Buggers denied England the World Cup in 2007

    By point out the English player's foot was in touch? Those buggers.
    Stop bringing in facts to my rants.
    My apologies. You'll never top your defence of that purple England kit/jacket though. That was hideous.
    Have you forgotten that England 7s kit I showed you a few years ago? That is the benchmark for hideous
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    Pong said:

    Who is ORB?

    A pollster. They are part of the Gallup group.

    BPC registered
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    The critics cannot afford to wait until May! They risk losing London, Scotland and Wales - the only places other than the lords where Labour still has considerable power. If they wait until May 2016, it just might be too late.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,184
    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738
    john_zims said:

    @Alanbrooke

    'You mean it;s that bad 80% of Labour voters are still stupid enough to vote for them ?'


    If you wait a few minutes Mr Palmer will be along to put a positive spin on it

    I think the main question is did NP go motor biking with Jeremy and Diane .

    Sidecar Palmer.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    People need time to get to know Corbyn. Not Sun caricatures. For a first poll I'd say it was encouraging. More encouraging though is that both he and McDonnell seem remarkably personable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    edited 2015 18
    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    I think it was conducted under STV as opposed to FPTP.

    I'd love to give you an explanation about the merits of different electoral voting systems but I'm tired
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738
    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    It's Scotland,

    you can proclaim yourself the winner on 45% of the vote even though your opponent got 55%.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Roger said:

    People need time to get to know Corbyn. Not Sun caricatures. For a first poll I'd say it was encouraging. More encouraging though is that both he and McDonnell seem remarkably personable.

    You must be one hell of an optimist.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    SeanT said:

    This game is just one Fiji score from being a total disaster for England.

    England are making sure they don't peak too soon at this World Cup
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11874368/Does-the-Hard-Left-have-the-best-sex.html
    Alanbrooke said:

    john_zims said:

    @Alanbrooke

    'You mean it;s that bad 80% of Labour voters are still stupid enough to vote for them ?'


    If you wait a few minutes Mr Palmer will be along to put a positive spin on it

    I think the main question is did NP go motor biking with Jeremy and Diane .

    Sidecar Palmer.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    People need time to get to know Corbyn. Not Sun caricatures. For a first poll I'd say it was encouraging. More encouraging though is that both he and McDonnell seem remarkably personable.

    @JohnRentoul: “You can’t be straight-talking and not talk to anyone”: Labour MP to Andrew Grice @IndyVoices http://t.co/gCyn0uGJ6W
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,106
    Pauly said:

    The critics cannot afford to wait until May! They risk losing London, Scotland and Wales - the only places other than the lords where Labour still has considerable power. If they wait until May 2016, it just might be too late.

    Absurd over-reaction. The Haringey by-election numbers (on very low turnouts) don't suggest a collapse in the Labour vote and ORB suggests Corbyn may be able to regain some ground from the SNP.

    By the way, you do know Labour don't run Holyrood and have only 1 MP - the same can be said for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats as well.

    London is far from clear - Wales is potentially much more interesting in terms of a potential shift away from Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,418
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    I think it was conducted under STV as opposed to FPTP.

    I'd love to give you an explanation about the merits of different electoral voting systems but I'm tired
    AV surely?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738
    Plato_Says said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11874368/Does-the-Hard-Left-have-the-best-sex.html

    Alanbrooke said:

    john_zims said:

    @Alanbrooke

    'You mean it;s that bad 80% of Labour voters are still stupid enough to vote for them ?'


    If you wait a few minutes Mr Palmer will be along to put a positive spin on it

    I think the main question is did NP go motor biking with Jeremy and Diane .

    Sidecar Palmer.
    I;ve always though of Nick as soft left.

    It must be the viagra.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I bloody hate the TMOs. Buggers denied England the World Cup in 2007

    By point out the English player's foot was in touch? Those buggers.
    Stop bringing in facts to my rants.
    My apologies. You'll never top your defence of that purple England kit/jacket though. That was hideous.
    Have you forgotten that England 7s kit I showed you a few years ago? That is the benchmark for hideous
    Is that triangles? I think I repressed it but I'm getting triangular flashbacks.

    Today looks like England nicked a kit design Wales rejected.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I bloody hate the TMOs. Buggers denied England the World Cup in 2007

    By point out the English player's foot was in touch? Those buggers.
    Stop bringing in facts to my rants.
    My apologies. You'll never top your defence of that purple England kit/jacket though. That was hideous.
    Have you forgotten that England 7s kit I showed you a few years ago? That is the benchmark for hideous
    Is that triangles? I think I repressed it but I'm getting triangular flashbacks.

    Today looks like England nicked a kit design Wales rejected.
    Yup this one

    http://ukrugbyshop.com/images/32911.jpg

    and this one

    http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/MTYwMFgxNjAw/z/eBkAAOSwQPlV-BO0/$_35.JPG?set_id=880000500F


  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,184
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    I think it was conducted under STV as opposed to FPTP.

    I'd love to give you an explanation about the merits of different electoral voting systems but I'm tired
    Well that was my first thought but even there the winner has the most votes in the end. The SNP HOLD statement even declares it was a minority.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    edited 2015 18
    AnneJGP said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    I think it was conducted under STV as opposed to FPTP.

    I'd love to give you an explanation about the merits of different electoral voting systems but I'm tired
    Well that was my first thought but even there the winner has the most votes in the end. The SNP HOLD statement even declares it was a minority.
    Multi member STV then?

    I don't know what can I say, the Scots are a backwards people.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,418
    AnneJGP said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    I think it was conducted under STV as opposed to FPTP.

    I'd love to give you an explanation about the merits of different electoral voting systems but I'm tired
    Well that was my first thought but even there the winner has the most votes in the end. The SNP HOLD statement even declares it was a minority.
    On the final count -

    SNP 1775
    Con 1740
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    SeanT said:

    These TMOs are ridiculous. Confusion and chaos. Stops every few minutes. Bad for rugby.

    The one going back after the try was given and reversing it, with no official review has set a terrible precendent.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If he thought his mandate from the 250,000 members and supporters who elected him would give him untrammelled power, he now knows otherwise. On Monday, he told Labour MPs he would not give David Cameron a “blank cheque” in his negotiations on a new EU deal and kept open the option of campaigning for an Out vote in the referendum. By yesterday (fri) his U-turn was complete, as he accepted that Labour would urge an In vote. “We have beaten him to pulp on Europe,” claimed one moderate MP.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/jeremy-corbyn-has-had-a-shambolic-first-week-as-leader--if-labour-doesnt-win-london-mayor-his-opponents-will-oust-him-10508210.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/644971309001240576
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    Is this not the greatest quote ever? Labour MP on Corbyn winning

    Many Labour MPs are still in a state of shock. “It’s like a bad trip, specifically like when I took antimalarial tablets and thought there were burglars in the garden,” says one.

    http://on.ft.com/1OE8R4f
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    LOL http://www.markpack.org.uk/134473/candidate-loses-despite-being-the-only-candidate-after-even-he-doesnt-vote-for-himself/
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,184
    SandyRentool said:

    AnneJGP said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    I think it was conducted under STV as opposed to FPTP.

    I'd love to give you an explanation about the merits of different electoral voting systems but I'm tired
    Well that was my first thought but even there the winner has the most votes in the end. The SNP HOLD statement even declares it was a minority.
    On the final count -

    SNP 1775
    Con 1740
    Oh, thank you. So why didn't they quote that count in the result line, please?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,418
    Scott_P said:

    If he thought his mandate from the 250,000 members and supporters who elected him would give him untrammelled power, he now knows otherwise. On Monday, he told Labour MPs he would not give David Cameron a “blank cheque” in his negotiations on a new EU deal and kept open the option of campaigning for an Out vote in the referendum. By yesterday (fri) his U-turn was complete, as he accepted that Labour would urge an In vote. “We have beaten him to pulp on Europe,” claimed one moderate MP.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/jeremy-corbyn-has-had-a-shambolic-first-week-as-leader--if-labour-doesnt-win-london-mayor-his-opponents-will-oust-him-10508210.html

    Interesting that a euro-zealot is described as moderate while the person who advocates wait and see is portrayed as the extremist.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,693
    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    STV election. The Green's transfers favoured the SNP by 26 votes; independent by 5; Labour by 24. The Green candidate was not listed above but won 76 votes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    Dire start from England, if Fiji - the 33-1 outsiders could kick then they'd be winning.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Dire start from England, if Fiji - the 33-1 outsiders could kick then they'd be winning.

    I think I will go back to watching paint dry...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,104
    Alanbrooke said:

    john_zims said:

    @Alanbrooke

    'You mean it;s that bad 80% of Labour voters are still stupid enough to vote for them ?'


    If you wait a few minutes Mr Palmer will be along to put a positive spin on it

    I think the main question is did NP go motor biking with Jeremy and Diane .

    Sidecar Palmer.
    Are they members of the Three Dolphin Club?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pong said:

    Who is ORB?

    A pollster. They are part of the Gallup group.

    BPC registered
    Interesting decision not to do headline VI's. Frustrating.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Off-topic: Another minor blow for Hollande, credit rating downgrade:
    FRANCE CUT TO Aa2 FROM Aa1 BY MOODY'S, OUTLOOK TO STABLE
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pong said:

    Who is ORB?

    A pollster. They are part of the Gallup group.

    BPC registered
    Interesting decision not to do headline VI's. Frustrating.
    They've been doing this for a while

    i) They are waiting until the BPC inquiry into the polling disaster

    ii) You can approximate the VI when the data tables are released
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    If he thought his mandate from the 250,000 members and supporters who elected him would give him untrammelled power, he now knows otherwise. On Monday, he told Labour MPs he would not give David Cameron a “blank cheque” in his negotiations on a new EU deal and kept open the option of campaigning for an Out vote in the referendum. By yesterday (fri) his U-turn was complete, as he accepted that Labour would urge an In vote. “We have beaten him to pulp on Europe,” claimed one moderate MP.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/jeremy-corbyn-has-had-a-shambolic-first-week-as-leader--if-labour-doesnt-win-london-mayor-his-opponents-will-oust-him-10508210.html
    Interesting that a euro-zealot is described as moderate while the person who advocates wait and see is portrayed as the extremist.

    Which policies are left for Corbyn to u-turn on? We need a checklist.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    WIN/Gallup Int @WINGALLUP
    57% in #Syria think their country is heading in the wrong direction. Public opinion #Iraq . New poll @ORB_Int pic.twitter.com/OiSnCvuLo2
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Utterly unsurprising poll. Note that Jeremy Corbyn seems to help the Conservatives quite separately from the damage that he does to Labour. He brings a cohort of kippers in play for them.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,693
    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pong said:

    Who is ORB?

    A pollster. They are part of the Gallup group.

    BPC registered
    Interesting decision not to do headline VI's. Frustrating.
    Until the polling industry announces it has fixed itself, vote intention figures are a substance of uncertain quality that is nonetheless craved by the addict. Like a bad batch of, ahem, "antimalarial tablets". (If that claim is true and not just a way to avoid admitting drug use, then one would be looking for a Labour MP on the right of the party who used Lariam, which was notably commissioned by the MoD. Draw your own conclusions)
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Ayr East on South Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result: Conservatives 1,527 (39% +6%), Scottish National Party 1,507 (39% +7%), Labour 642 (16% -7%), Independents 218 (6% -6%)
    SNP HOLD on the fourth count with a minority of 20 (0%) on a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to Scottish National Party

    Please could someone explain this result to me? I've never come across a winner with fewer votes than another party.

    I think it was conducted under STV as opposed to FPTP.

    I'd love to give you an explanation about the merits of different electoral voting systems but I'm tired
    Technically it was single outcome STV - or AV.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9637472/the-right-response-to-the-corbynistas/
    So if Labour voters take a second look at the Tories, what should they see? This question ought to dominate the preparations for the Conservative party conference next month. The Prime Minister can talk about how inequality and child poverty have both fallen under his time in Downing Street. Rather than be a ‘poverty denier’, as Corbyn absurdly claims, Cameron wants to improve the ways governments approach the issue. He is pushing through reforms that will tackle drug dependence, personal debt, educational failure and the other curses which stymie life chances. The Conservatives are the only party keen to recognise — and confront — poverty in all its dimensions.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Almost three in four people do not believe that Jeremy Corbyn looks like a prime minister-in-waiting, according to a poll for The Independent.

    A survey of 2,000 people found that Mr Corbyn’s election as Labour leader has made one in five people who voted for his party at the May general election more likely to vote Conservative next time. Some 37 per cent of Labour voters say they are less likely to back the party at the next election.

    The ORB findings will fuel the debate among Labour MPs after what many view as a poor performance by Mr Corbyn in his first week as leader. Critics are already plotting how to remove the veteran left-winger, with some saying they will move against him if Labour fails to win the London mayoral election next May

    The survey, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, found only 28 per cent of people agree with the statement “Jeremy Corbyn looks like a prime minister-in-waiting”, while 72 per cent disagree.

    http://ind.pn/1FlnHKS

    Jeremy thinks "Oh, if only I had done that top button up!".
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    These TMOs are ridiculous. Confusion and chaos. Stops every few minutes. Bad for rugby.

    The one going back after the try was given and reversing it, with no official review has set a terrible precendent.
    I don't understand why they are not TMOing every try as they do in Rugby League.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScottyNational: Vote change: Thousands of No Voters realise they were wrong & likely to now vote Yes after being called traitors or stupid on social media
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,104
    stodge said:

    Pauly said:

    The critics cannot afford to wait until May! They risk losing London, Scotland and Wales - the only places other than the lords where Labour still has considerable power. If they wait until May 2016, it just might be too late.

    Absurd over-reaction. The Haringey by-election numbers (on very low turnouts) don't suggest a collapse in the Labour vote and ORB suggests Corbyn may be able to regain some ground from the SNP.

    By the way, you do know Labour don't run Holyrood and have only 1 MP - the same can be said for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats as well.

    London is far from clear - Wales is potentially much more interesting in terms of a potential shift away from Labour.
    I'm not sure what to make of this poll. If I read the above barcharts correctly (I may not be!) then Labour aren't recovering enough votes from SNP (i.e they're still going to lose to the SNP, but by a smaller margin) but are losing enough Labour votes to lose the seats that they do have. They're picking up votes from the smaller and more fickle voters (green, LD) - which won't actually make a difference. This is just smearing their vote around, and would result in a lot of good second places...which is exactly what they don't want. Happy to be contradicted if I misunderstand
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dire start from England, if Fiji - the 33-1 outsiders could kick then they'd be winning.

    Missing touch with the penalty on 65 mins cost Fiji the game.

    And me £108.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    I think we are seriously going to regret not taking Luther Burrell. Proven try scorer. Burgess is not proven in Union let alone try scoring.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pulpstar said:

    Dire start from England, if Fiji - the 33-1 outsiders could kick then they'd be winning.

    Pulpstar, I don't know if you saw the link I posted on last night's thread, but it looks like you and my brother have something in common. Not sure if this was from his back yard, or from a trip to the Azores.

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/57857238@N03/5326274001/in/photostream/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    SeanT said:

    England. Never had a doubt. Brilliant performance. Excellent idea to use TMOs throughout the game.

    Bonus point as well, but this is just Fiji. If we play like this against Australia then we're in trouble.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dire start from England, if Fiji - the 33-1 outsiders could kick then they'd be winning.

    Pulpstar, I don't know if you saw the link I posted on last night's thread, but it looks like you and my brother have something in common. Not sure if this was from his back yard, or from a trip to the Azores.

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/57857238@N03/5326274001/in/photostream/
    That's some seriously impressive work - need tracking & long exposures to achieve that lot !
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Sky news showing the Syrians and Afghans beating the heck out of each other in Croatia.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,266
    And only 20% of the refugees/ migrants are Syrian. Hungary being heavily condemned by media but what else can they do being the first country into Europe on this route
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Isn't it odd that the only thing that genuinely matters - whether people would actually vote labour or not - isn't being asked, in this first week of media onslaught?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,266
    JWisemann said:

    Isn't it odd that the only thing that genuinely matters - whether people would actually vote labour or not - isn't being asked, in this first week of media onslaught?

    Probably frightened by the likely result
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,750
    JWisemann said:

    Isn't it odd that the only thing that genuinely matters - whether people would actually vote labour or not - isn't being asked, in this first week of media onslaught?

    That doesn't matter at the moment, it's the Corbyn PM ratings that are key. People always overestimate their proclivity to vote non Gov't at this point in the cycle.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited 2015 18
    How many times did Fiji turn over England possession??

    EACAWNWTWCITPLKAA
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited 2015 18
    EPG said:

    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pong said:

    Who is ORB?

    A pollster. They are part of the Gallup group.

    BPC registered
    Interesting decision not to do headline VI's. Frustrating.
    Until the polling industry announces it has fixed itself, vote intention figures are a substance of uncertain quality that is nonetheless craved by the addict. Like a bad batch of, ahem, "antimalarial tablets". (If that claim is true and not just a way to avoid admitting drug use, then one would be looking for a Labour MP on the right of the party who used Lariam, which was notably commissioned by the MoD. Draw your own conclusions)
    Not sure what you're getting at re: lariam. Have you ever taken it, or do you know anyone who has? The hallucinations/dreams are legendary.

    As for polls, the headline VI's did an awesome job of measuring the SNP surge, didn't it?

    Dismiss at your peril.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JWisemann said:

    Isn't it odd that the only thing that genuinely matters - whether people would actually vote labour or not - isn't being asked, in this first week of media onslaught?

    its being asked all over the place but not in the way you want it to be/
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    I was on the Guardian last week when the usual anti-New Labour rants were going on and posted that this attitude was pretty much;

    "Shoo voters, we need to attract non-voters"

    I have seen nothing to change that view.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited 2015 18
    Of course it matters. People aren't going to be seeing Corbyn as a likely pm in his first week as an anti-establishment candidate when all of the media have been going guns blazing 24/7 saying he isn't, but we need to know if that actually affects VI in a real rather than implied sense. It smacks of another part of the Discredit Corbyn ASAP agenda rather than dispassionate analysis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,364
    edited 2015 18
    JWisemann said:

    Isn't it odd that the only thing that genuinely matters - whether people would actually vote labour or not - isn't being asked, in this first week of media onslaught?

    Three possible explanations:

    1) That everyone is still a bit unnerved by what happened in May, and we will not get large numbers of polls until after the inquiry has reported in March and we have some idea of what went wrong and how it will be allowed for next time (support: 11 VI polls in four and a half months since the election);

    2) The media are unwilling to pay thousands for a poll when, with a new leader, the numbers are likely to be in a state of flux rendering them obsolete almost as soon as they are taken (evidence - Howard topped 40% in a poll a month or so after taking office);

    3) At the moment, Corbyn himself - not Labour - is the story and therefore that's what the media want information on, to match the rest of their coverage (evidence - look at any given paper)!

    I would think (3) is probably the likeliest, but it may be any or indeed all of them.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @JWisemann

    'Isn't it odd that the only thing that genuinely matters - whether people would actually vote labour or not '


    Isn't that obvious.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,266
    JWisemann said:

    Of course it matters. People aren't going to be seeing Corbyn as a likely pm in his first week as an anti-establishment candidate when all of the media have been going guns blazing 24/7 saying he isn't, but we need to know if that actually affects VI in a real rather than implied sense. It smacks of another part of the Discredit Corbyn ASAP agenda rather than dispassionate analysis.

    I don't think dispassionate analysis is necessary - he may gain some non voters but many, many more voters are going to be completely switched off by him and more determined then ever to keep him away from any form of power
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited 2015 18
    Presumably adding a VI question would be pretty straightforward though Ydoethur? It just might contradict the mood music they are aiming for, would be my cynical suspicion.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,398
    edited 2015 18
    Labour now adding parents to the list of people it's trying to alienate:
    https://www.tes.com/news/school-news/breaking-news/lucy-powell-labour-would-bring-all-academies-and-free-schools-back
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    SandyRentool said:

    JEO said:

    Speedy said:

    The OBR poll is not a voting intention poll, it's a likelyhood poll, 37% of Labour voters say they are less likely to vote Labour and 20% more likely to vote Tory than before.

    JEO said:

    If we estimate Labour has gone from 31% to 25% that's a six point drop. Let's imagine they take two points from the green, so an eight point loss to other parties. Give four to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, two to UKIP. Baxter predicts a 108 seat majority.

    I can't believe they would report something that badly.
    They have. We need to see some proper polls.
    After the General Election does anyone know what a proper poll is?
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