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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One year on from the Indyref: Why Scottish Independence might be in Labour’s best interests
One of the key elements in my opinion that helped the Tories win a majority in May rather than just being the largest party in a hung parliament was their ruthless approach when it came to Ed Miliband and the likelihood of the SNP propping up a Labour led coalition.
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Simon Crocker CON(579)
Jeni Sawford LD(247)
Gavin Clayton LAB(235)
Helene Green UKIP(121)
Marcus Pitcaithly GREEN(64)
Turnout a miserly 15.27%.
Nowhere near as close as I was expecting.
https://twitter.com/SouthCambs?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dem-postmortem-blames-general-election-meltdown-on-utterly-ruthless-tory-tactics-10506104.html
If our politicos solution to not getting elected is gerrymandering then we should sack the lot and get new ones.
In fact I thought Sainsbury's and others have also increased pay in line with the budget recommendations. All very good news for the low paid - as well as getting taxpayers off the hook with tax credit/wage subsidies. Ozzy rocks!
Not sure I’m in favour of lopping off bits of the UK, just to assist any party, quite frankly.
Cos it sounds PCC level of turnout.
The review will not be completed until later this year. It is expected not to direct blame at Mr Clegg or Lord (Paddy) Ashdown, who ran the election campaign, or to argue that the Lib Dems lacked money.
Ok, so it wasn't the leadership, and it wasn't the campaign team, and it wasn't resourcing.
So who's left to blame... Fatcha?
Wasn't there a parliamentary by-election in the last parliament where someone got elected with 18-19% of the vote?
Edit: it was Lucy Powell:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Powell
How different GE2015 might have been if she had never been elected to parliament ...
Cloned Nats anyone?
I mean, it's not as if they now have some of their most senior MPs calling EVEL "racist" or anything ludicrous like that anymore.
Eh?
Both are huge distractions. Even if successful, exchanging one SNP MP for one Labour MP won't make an iota of difference to the power balance in the Commons. If Labour aren't smart enough to work that out, the main advantage of Scottish independence is that it'd *force* them to focus on England, and probably move to the Right too.
Meanwhile, the Tories - although still earnestly unionist - will continue to be the de-facto English party.
Apparently it had the same effect on Lib Dem voters as The Vow had on Indeyref voters...
There is a sharp contrast with that former party, the Lib Dems. Their position was that whoever won the most seats had earned the right to rule. The SNP do not think that way and would have no problem propping up a smaller Labour party to keep the Tories out.
What Labour need to do is address the underlying problem shown by those posters. The underlying problem was that Ed was pathetic and could easily be pushed around in favour of a sectional interest who many in England thought were already getting more than a fair crack of the whip.
I expect John McDonnell to try and make common cause with the SNP in his anti-austerity campaign: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ive-known-john-mcdonnell-for-30-years--heres-what-hes-really-like-10500246.html His job, whether he chooses to accept it or not, is to persuade the English that Nicola is not that scary and that a fair settlement can be reached. This really should not be beyond the wit of man. It was the useless Labour response to this attack that caused the problem, not the attack itself. With so much less to lose in Scotland it should be a lot easier for them the next time.
In Bourn it doesn't look as if LD or UKIP stood last time.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/644637569842552832
Labour is a British party.
The best thing for its prospects is not to break-up the country but to have a credible, non-toxic leadership and a set of coherent policies.
Clegg looked nasty, angry and desperate which was not normal for him. I don't believe he was as ignorant of the upcoming results until after 10pm on election night as has been made out.
Yep, my daughter has just started her law degree at Edinburgh this week. She says it is incredibly posh and just like being at Dundee High. She will leave University with no fee related debt, hopefully to go on to a solid middle class career. How is this helping social mobility in Scotland exactly?
So much for the 'game changing' Vow:
[Prof Curtice said] "It's not clear The Vow made much difference, not least because if you actually looked at the detail of the opinion poll often regarded as being responsible for it - The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times - you can see very clearly from that poll that among those people whose first preference was more devolution - the group to which the Unionists were then trying to appeal - were already between five and six-to-one saying they were going to vote 'No'.
And Prof Mitchell said: "A great deal is claimed about The Vow that it shifted opinion. We've had a look at this and we simply can't find any evidence that it really had that impact."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34274044
On topic.
Nay! Nay! And Thrice Nay!
Scotland is in Labour's DNA - and London Labour will never reconnect with Working Class England if Scotland is amputated - it will end up a minority party of the Public Sector Middle Class, the sort of people who would select Corbyn for leader....
What I find interesting is how superior the centrally directed phone banked campaigning proved to be to the traditional local campaign by a well known face. I have never believed the ground game was as important as some claimed but it seems to be positively archaic after 2015.
The second question is dealt with by having a pre-election accord. Ed's refusal to speak to the SNP made the uncertainty and perceived threat much worse.
The slight flaw in my argument is that there is every sign Ed was a towering genius compared to Corbyn but that is a problem for Labour that is not caused by Scotland.
'Was the apology he gave for something he said twelve years ago sincere'?....leading the news
'Did he correctly fasten the top button on his shirt at Remembrance Day'?.....led the news for a day
'Did his lips move during the national anthem'?....led the news for four days
Meanwhile we have the biggest refugee crisis the world has seen since the war and the only way you get accurate news is to visit the dark net
It's frankly pathetic
I'm a bit peeved with the local Conservatives. Morgan served as a councillor in this ward a few years ago, but resigned his seat in ?2011? as he was working abroad. He stood for election again in 2014 and said he was settling in this country. A little over a year later, and he's abroad again.
IMO he (or the Conservatives) should pay the cost of the election. Resigning once for work reasons is fair enough. Resigning twice is taking the p*ss ...
Besides, I'm in favour of compulsory voting, with caveats. That'll stop the problem ...
But being a luvvie , one cannot expect you to understand.
But its central to the SNP narrative of
- 'We only lost because of the vow' (not true)
- The Vow has not been delivered (can't pin them down on specifics - Cameron tried and they ran away)
- Therefore the only solution is another once in a generation SindyRef
Different questions have different thresholds for relevance
Give Tube customers a vote on whether there's to be a Tube strike and drop the turnout requirement if you wish. Except you know what the answer would be.
It curious that the Tories demand a lower turnout threshold for the election of the Prime Minister than union ballots.
Ask the same question now and you'll get the same question. They need to wait a few years and change things before they call a second vote only once they should win it. Which they won't now.
Under a union ballot turnout is automatically restricted to a small subset of those affected. The Tube for example is a public service but it can be shut down based on turnout of just a tiny fraction of a tiny fraction of those affected by it.
"But their analysis is likely to conclude that the "incumbency factor" was blown away in a close election because many people voted for David Cameron to be Prime Minister and were not thinking about their constituency."
We did try to tell you...
Meanwhile, important polling straw in the wind in the US - Carson overtaken Trump in Michigan:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
I find it hard to take Carson seriously based on the first debate (missed the second one), where he seemed completely at sea, but I'm not remotely a GOP voter. Opinions from TimT and TimB and others who know the scene would be interesting.
Children’s charities and MPs rounded on judges at the Court of Appeal after they said that it was right to take into account the extra shame Asian victims would feel and the damage to their prospects of an arranged marriage."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article4560315.ece
Furthermore, this should be a bank holiday, celebrated always on the 18th (unless that be a Saturday or Sunday), not just moved to the nearest Monday.
ThreeQuidder is 36 today.
Here's the difference: the country does have to have a prime minister. No union has to go on strike.
In your seat in 2010 three times as many voted UKIP as voted Green. If Labour took half the Green vote and Tories took half the UKIP vote (as Labour had gone further to the left) then you would have lost by a bigger margin.
How low do you think the lab % will go?
Under 20%?
Could anyone who has had a relative killed or injured during the second world war (up to and including second cousins) please contact us so you can express your disgust at Jeremy Corbyn's decision to leave his top button undone during Rememberance Day Sunday. Nicky Campbell will then emote on your behalf. (Calls will be charged a 10p a minute different charges apply to mobiles)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2015/09/between-revolution-and-reform-challenge-facing-jeremy-corbyn
In 50 years, I expect few will wear a tie in any circumstance.