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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Mr Corbyn could end Cameron’s Premiership
One of the underlying assumptions in the EU referendum was Labour and the Trade Union movement would be campaigning vigorously for the United Kingdom to remain a member however with the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour Leader that assumption needs to be revised. This morning’s Guardian reports “The prospects of Labour opposing British membership of the European Union, or adopting a …
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We'd leave. And he could then retire safe in the knowledge he'd go down as the greatest Conservative PM of all time.
I wouldn't at this stage rule out either outcome. Nor would I assume that the TUC and Corbyn will be decisive any more than in 75 either. This debate will be decided based on the same way has long seemed likely - Remain campaigning on "jobs depend upon the EU" and Leave campaigning on Immigration and Sovereignty.
If Corbyn has managed to get a majority of women in his shadow cabinet by having 2 members facing one cabinet minister is that not just a little contrived?
I did not hear the interview but it does not seem at all unlikely that we will have a fairly consistent picture of shadow ministers contradicting Corbyn until Labour policy is officially changed. As most of the PLP disagree with Corbyn about most things this may take a while and risk further destabilising the somewhat unstable ship.
It's like going to a call dealership and having an opening line to the salesman of "I'm going to buy this car regardless of the deal we come to" and then attempting to haggle about the price.
This, of course, assumes that Cameron will actually have substantive negotiations, which is far from a given, but failure to do so would drive many more into the "leave" camp.
2) PB is at its best when it is slight contrarian
3) It's bloody tedious writing Corbyn is crap threads.
Today's we have yet to see!
PMQs at mid-day might provide material, but we're off to a good start with Corbyn being both contradicted and criticised by a Shadow Cabinet Minister on R4......"Things can only get better....."
Leave only has to be lucky once,
Remain has to be lucky all the time.
@BBCScotlandNews: Culture Secretary Fiona Hyslop to appear before Holyrood committee over T in the Park payment http://t.co/6M1Rzden6p http://t.co/iFHgnoljdk
YouGov/Times poll
Have you personally been insulted or abused over your referendum vote.
Yes 24%
No 74%.
There was a clear difference in the experiences of respondents. Among “yes” supporters, 16 per cent had been abused and 82 per cent had not; on the “no” side, 32 per cent had been targeted, while 68 per cent had not.
It seems a pretty feeble thing on which the TUC or even Corbyn to decide they would campaign for out on. The next Labour government (idem. ed) could simply opt back in again just as the last one did.
Or are the TUC really saying that they might have to wait a while for a Labour government?
This morning it was Adm Lord West berating Jezza.
What a wally
Dave should find pmqs v easy...
So I'm really saying you're like the Nats
Oh I'm not helping am I?
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Meanwhile, the Canada there is a clear distinction between phone polls, which show a Conservative recovery, and internet polls, which don't. Margins small either way, but may be instructive to see what turns out to be right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015
On the other side, the entirely negative Better Together campaign which was barely ticking over was rejuvenated by the positive intervention of Gordon Brown. He saved the pound; he saved the world; he saved the union.
Didn't do so well for the Labour Party!
"...there are a lot of unforeseen things when you become LOTO that you have not thought about or seen in that light..."
Great job Angela - you've turned a drama into a crisis:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9628872/merkels-big-gesture-on-syrian-refugees-will-lead-to-many-more-deaths-at-sea/
R4 now doing the "we are talking about what just happeend but not telling you what it is" thing.
Kate Green is slightly given to publicity stunts (Top Totty Beer). Was it one of those?
To understand the disaster that is the Corbyn leadership is to picture the Hindenburg meets Chernobyl meets Three Mile Island meets Tron 2 meets the Battle of Zama.
Though I assume you were joking as I missed the apostrophe. In '75 remain in the EU got 66% - that is still the approximate figure I expect remain to get and would be conclusive enough. I don't expect a narrow in, I suspect that there is a sizable bulk in the centre who could go either way and will most likely result in a clear Remain but could result in a Leave.
Yes, it was Gordon Brown who got the Tories to vote for the Union......how did Labour voters vote?
'Question of the day is when will the frothers stop wetting their pants about JC. Seems many on here lead sad lonely lives when they get so excited about so little, pretty amazing'
Cheer yourself up Malc. Your leaderene has finally made it into Vogue. All those years wearing tartan wedges..........
http://www.vogue.co.uk/news/2015/09/07/nicola-sturgeon-british-vogue-october-2015
Howabout paralleling Lot/Gommorah with JC/Labour?
I think PMQs may be quite odd today.
I was proud of the Book of Revelation references I got in yesterday.
But Tron 2 allows me to reference Olivia Wilde, a future member of my harem
Skybet have very attractive odds on the vote being kicked into 2018/19/20 - covering all three years @ ~14.5/1 isn't a bad idea, IMO.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/year-of-referendum-on-eu-membership
It's not for the Leader of the Opposition at a religious service to honour the war dead.
Mr. Eagles, I see your view of the future is as fictional as your grasp of history.
Those have come in quite a bit in the last fortnight. I've been building a little position at 3-1 while waiting for someone to offer decent odds on the Ascension of JC - still haven't found anything convincing.
Surely that is coming in more, with the current newsflow and Merkopalypse.
"It's surprisingly early days, but the Tories might already need to be thinking in terms of a "Save Corbyn" campaign."
'Eat shit . 2,000,000 flies can't be wrong'
The noises are coming from daily Mail readers. Ignore
On topic. Out has a lot of passion and a potentially large pool of very motivated support. But it has terrible spokesmen. In can still win, but has a massive task on its hands. Cameron took the left for granted on this, but Greece has chaged everything. If it's close, the SNP might save him. That would be very amusing on many levels.
195 mins until popcorn time!
Hearing news reports from inside the "fog where the sun never shines" is far too interesting.
It is like Charlie Brown with his personal raincloud.
It's been made quite clear in the last couple of weeks that there's definitely no Status Quo; if there's not a very definite Associate Membership on the table then leaving and negotiating a trade deal is surely the best option as the EuroZone countries integrate further?
Corbyn has to have something sensational to KO Dave, I'd like to know what it is. From where I am looking Labour has nothing to say about anything that is relevant and not fantastically stupid (eg endless benefits , printing £50 billion and so on and so forth)
Should still have joined in with the National Anthem though. The military care about these things even if he cares not for the military.
That's always a good indicator of distress on the red team.
During the campaign people will be asked "if we weren't members would you vote to join?"
The answer will be a resounding NO
But Corbyn has no reason to go on together with Dave, since he lives in his own reality those without suspicious minds can build their dreams upon what he says. Though his old 'friends' in his party will keep popping up to say hello with suspicion clear in their eyes.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
From YouGov Co founder "@nadhimzahawi: I am genuinely concerned that by the end of the week JC will give up being leader of the LAB Party."
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
The Tories will be praying Corbyn does well at PMQs. At this rate he will not last the month.
Only four points ahead of you. Crossover this weekend I fear
That's forgetting the EU's habit of asking the same question again and again until the get the answer they want.
Although the way things are going:
1) There might not be an EU remaining by the time the referendum comes around (*)
2) They might not want us. (**)
(*) I know it's unlikely , but it has to be a possibility that one or more countries drops out. And it would all be Ed's fault ...
(**) The UK leaving would lessen the need for a two-speed Europe, and ease the process of greater political union.
Alf - the original Kipper.
Featuring Tony Blair's father-in-law, who would be a Corbyn fan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_6PxrAxd6k
He's a man on a mission. After a lifetime of espousing unfashionable causes, he's hardly going to be deflected or worried because the MSM are shrieking with faux horror.
It's the serried ranks of Labour MPs behind him who are going to be quaking in their boots. Fortunately, Labour (to point out the bleedin' obvious) don't have either a track record or the mechanisms to replace the serial fruit loops they keep getting to lead their party. Poor Clement Attlee, what a fate for such a great party.
He's just the main star attraction.
I doubt the Conservatives will be offering any of their expertise on regicide, though.