So, in the light of that last comment and to counter TSE's mendacious and malevolent thread header ( ) shouldn't the real exciting market be:
Who goes first: Cameron or Corbyn?
Of course, one has already declared his intention to quit.
Er, I said who goes first not whether one of them goes. We know Cameron has said he will step down, though there are noises that he may try to see out the next election on the grounds of 'national security,' but the interesting question is perhaps which of the two will last longer as party leader?
I do like Javid's urbane welcome: "He started by congratulating Corbyn on his election. He said he and Corbyn had two things in common. First, they would never be seen eating a bacon sandwich. And, second, they both went into politics to improve the lives of their constituents."
Someone said yesterday that Javid wasn't a practising Muslim. Maybe he's just a vegetarian.
Or he was referring to an obscure photograph of Ed Miliband. We'll never know.
I do like Javid's urbane welcome: "He started by congratulating Corbyn on his election. He said he and Corbyn had two things in common. First, they would never be seen eating a bacon sandwich. And, second, they both went into politics to improve the lives of their constituents."
I thought Javid claimed to no longer being a practicing Muslim. Is he practicing again?
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
I think you're underestimating the affection within Labour, and particularly the PLP, for Europe.
As for Cameron: I can see why some on the left might have wet dreams over Cameron resigning over a lost EU referendum, but it might not happen - it would depend on how it is played. And as I said the other day, there's always the chance that Cameron recommends a 'leave' vote.
Actually I'd generally rather have Cameron as PM than any other Tory.
I am not sure it will be up to them though. He did not get most of his vote from the hard left, he got it from the grief stricken and the angry. People like Nick Palmer who, in the end, do actually want a Labour government. They'll put on a brave face for a while as Jezza combusts, but it will not last. He has already started to lose some of them with his appointments - McDonnell and the lack of women.
Sure, but actually getting rid of him is hard, especially whilst he has the support of McCluskey, which looks solid. I'd go so far as to say that he's really quite secure unless he himself decides to quit.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
Personally, I think this is a tactical position and a good one. He is trying to portray a certain aloofness towards EU but at the same time no one is suggesting this will be a three line whip kind of thing.
Who was the person who signed treaties in the EU bringing us ever closer, like a single market but gave the impression of being anti-EU. Mrs Thatcher.
Did anyone ever think then that Britain would pull out of the EU ?
I am not sure it will be up to them though. He did not get most of his vote from the hard left, he got it from the grief stricken and the angry. People like Nick Palmer who, in the end, do actually want a Labour government. They'll put on a brave face for a while as Jezza combusts, but it will not last. He has already started to lose some of them with his appointments - McDonnell and the lack of women.
Sure, but actually getting rid of him is hard, especially whilst he has the support of McCluskey, which looks solid. I'd go so far as to say that he's really quite secure unless he himself decides to quit.
I agree. But I think he will quit. And he'll do it because it will become impossible for him to carry on.
He'll be gone by the end of next year. He has been worse than I could ever have hoped.
The Sky walk was excruciating, but the reporter - relatively young - could and should have addressed him as Mr Corbyn, not Jeremy. After all, he is leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The title deserves some respect.
The position may well deserve some respect but the currant occupant clearly doesn't.
Corbyn appears to be on a mission to make Milliband seem like a political genius and Brown to have perfect mental health.
The tory attack ad is perfect, it targets the whole labour movement and a good idea to start now as perceptions take time to form and you don't know how long corbyn will remain as leader.
Others have already mentioned that Corbyn may well face a great deal of mental anguish in his new position.
Good.
Nasty authoritarians as Corbyn certainly is, most definately deserve this.
As to how long he remains leader, I don't know. As I can see him hanging on like a limpet to a crushing defeat or being ousted by labour MP's concerned about their go on the gravy train. I can't see him doing the decent thing and resigning for the good of the party.
(McDonnall, the Eagle bros, hahahahahahahahahahah)
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
Yes, Cameron would in all probability go. However, I ask again so what? It will not cause the government to fall. If cameron resigns a few months earlier than he planned and does so in circumstances that he would not have wished, what actually changes?
Er, well, as this is apparently a betting site and this thread was created on the spurious market about Corbyn going then it raises a few interesting prospects:
1. Corbyn first or Cameron? Betting market? 2. If Cameron goes following a NO vote who then is likeliest next leader? We've assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne but would a crushing NO defeat raise the prospect of someone else, perhaps from the eurosceptic wing, becoming PM?
I think there has been a lot of assumption on here that Labour are in trouble but forget the biggest division in any main party has been the tories over Europe and that's only going to get more serious during the next c12-18 months, a foretaste of which we had last week.
As an additional point, Governments losing votes in the Commons look weak.
I do like Javid's urbane welcome: "He started by congratulating Corbyn on his election. He said he and Corbyn had two things in common. First, they would never be seen eating a bacon sandwich. And, second, they both went into politics to improve the lives of their constituents."
Someone said yesterday that Javid wasn't a practising Muslim. Maybe he's just a vegetarian.
It can be a cultural, not a religious, issue - in the same way I'm happy to eat most meats, but might turn my nose up at horseflesh. There's nothing stopping me (aside from availability, although Newmarket's near ), but culturally it's not something I'd eat in most circumstances.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
There will be a Labour Yes campaign, but do not rule out another one that urges a No. It would not surprise me to Corbyn and some of the unions on that side. There is absolutely no way on earth Corbyn will campaign to stay in the EU on the terms agreed by Cameron. That said, he may well not be Labour leader by the time the vote comes around.
Going to be awkward in here when Labour are consistently leading in the polls.
Not really as we'll have the flying pigs to keep up company.
Mark my words, within a year we'll be seeing consistent poll leads for Labour.
Michael Foot led in the polls between November 1980 and October 1981. Neil Kinnock had massive leads in 1990. Ed Miliband was ahead in the polls for a long time.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn has increased Cameron's majority by up to 16 just by appointing McDonnell.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
Yes, Cameron would in all probability go. However, I ask again so what? It will not cause the government to fall. If cameron resigns a few months earlier than he planned and does so in circumstances that he would not have wished, what actually changes?
Er, well, as this is apparently a betting site and this thread was created on the spurious market about Corbyn going then it raises a few interesting prospects:
1. Corbyn first or Cameron? Betting market? 2. If Cameron goes following a NO vote who then is likeliest next leader? We've assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne but would a crushing NO defeat raise the prospect of someone else, perhaps from the eurosceptic wing, becoming PM?
I think there has been a lot of assumption on here that Labour are in trouble but forget the biggest division in any main party has been the tories over Europe and that's only going to get more serious during the next c12-18 months, a foretaste of which we had last week.
(snip)
ISTR the Conservative Party is much more Eurosceptic than it used to be, with many of the pro-Europeans now having left parliament. It's still a big problem, especially with UKIP breathing down their necks (and of Labour), but probably less of one.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn has increased Cameron's majority by up to 16 just by appointing O'Donnell.
As an aside, Estobar is an anagram of Arsebot.
Do you really want me to make an anagram of Chestnut?
Let's stick to debating policies not being personal.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
Yes, Cameron would in all probability go. However, I ask again so what? It will not cause the government to fall. If cameron resigns a few months earlier than he planned and does so in circumstances that he would not have wished, what actually changes?
Er, well, as this is apparently a betting site and this thread was created on the spurious market about Corbyn going then it raises a few interesting prospects:
1. Corbyn first or Cameron? Betting market? 2. If Cameron goes following a NO vote who then is likeliest next leader? We've assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne but would a crushing NO defeat raise the prospect of someone else, perhaps from the eurosceptic wing, becoming PM?
I think there has been a lot of assumption on here that Labour are in trouble but forget the biggest division in any main party has been the tories over Europe and that's only going to get more serious during the next c12-18 months, a foretaste of which we had last week.
As an additional point, Governments losing votes in the Commons look weak.
Who is this "We" that has assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne?
2. If Cameron goes following a NO vote who then is likeliest next leader? We've assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne but would a crushing NO defeat raise the prospect of someone else, perhaps from the eurosceptic wing, becoming PM?.
Yes it would. Owen Paterson is 80/1 at Sky, which I think is a good bet for anyone who can get a bet on at Sky (next best is William Hill at 66/1).
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
How many by-election losses to force Corbyn out? And who will lead this collection of Corbynistas, Faragites and Backbench Davidians?
2. If Cameron goes following a NO vote who then is likeliest next leader? We've assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne but would a crushing NO defeat raise the prospect of someone else, perhaps from the eurosceptic wing, becoming PM?.
Yes it would. Owen Paterson is 80/1 at Sky, which I think is a good bet for anyone who can get a bet on at Sky (next best is William Hill at 66/1).
Agreed. That's well worth a punt. Would love to see a thread on this.
I just think that for all the excitement on here re. Corbyn's Labour, this 2015-2020 parliament is full of some extraordinary possibilities. We've not seen anything like this in a long time.
I too think Paddy's 11/10 is a decent bet, but tieing up money for so long seems unattractive. I'm happy to do so on betfair as one can generally get out again.
I'd hope that a few more Corbyn markets go up on Betfair - mind you they've been good at getting an exit date and next labour leader market up quite swiftly.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
Yes, Cameron would in all probability go. However, I ask again so what? It will not cause the government to fall. If cameron resigns a few months earlier than he planned and does so in circumstances that he would not have wished, what actually changes?
Er, well, as this is apparently a betting site and this thread was created on the spurious market about Corbyn going then it raises a few interesting prospects:
1. Corbyn first or Cameron? Betting market? 2. If Cameron goes following a NO vote who then is likeliest next leader? We've assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne but would a crushing NO defeat raise the prospect of someone else, perhaps from the eurosceptic wing, becoming PM?
I think there has been a lot of assumption on here that Labour are in trouble but forget the biggest division in any main party has been the tories over Europe and that's only going to get more serious during the next c12-18 months, a foretaste of which we had last week.
As an additional point, Governments losing votes in the Commons look weak.
Who is this "We" that has assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne?
Going to be awkward in here when Labour are consistently leading in the polls.
Not really as we'll have the flying pigs to keep up company.
Mark my words, within a year we'll be seeing consistent poll leads for Labour.
Even if there are (it is possible) it doesn't mean that Labour will win the general election any more than the consistent lead in the polls Ed got meant he'd win an election.
Ideal Tory position probably is for Labour to get regular 1 point leads in the midterm polls under Corbyn making it harder for him to be challenged.
@SouthamObserver - He might last longer than you expect, because he'll have people around him - McDonnell, Meacher, Abott, Ken Livingstone, and most important Len McCluskey - who will be telling him that he got a huge mandate (which is true enough), and that all the criticism is just unfair attacks from capitalists, Zionists, racists, Tories, big business, neo-cons, the Murdoch press, the Daily Mail, and, lowest of all low-life, Blairites.
I think that he really does believe that the nutty causes he espouses do in fact amount to a great popular movement which the aforementioned elite vested interests have oppressed, and he'll try to connect with this non-existent popular movement. He'll even get some superficial support from rallies and Twitter which will convince him that it's for real. Why wouldn't he believe this? He's believed it all his life, but only now has a chance to do anything about it.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
I think you're underestimating the affection within Labour, and particularly the PLP, for Europe.
As for Cameron: I can see why some on the left might have wet dreams over Cameron resigning over a lost EU referendum, but it might not happen - it would depend on how it is played. And as I said the other day, there's always the chance that Cameron recommends a 'leave' vote.
The only parties not particularly endangered by the referendum are the Lib Dems - who are consistently for staying in - and the SNP. There are dragons awaiting everyone else.
I know no-one is predicting it, but if Cameron simply came out and said "Unfortunately, there are now major dangers to remaining in the EU, and unfortunately, there is a serious unwillingness to reform. We must remain close trading partners and allies, but union is no longer tenable" then he would cause Leave to win by a landslide.
He would then be in control to negotiate a new trade treaty. If the UK then continued to grow (as it did after the ERM drop-out unexpectedly), while the EU stagnated under Euro and migrant problems, then he would be looked back on as one of the real big beasts of Tory Prime Ministers. Labour, Corbynista and Blairite alike, would be left floundering as they had to adjust to the new circumstances.
I'd prefer Cameron to the vast majority of Tories; the only reason why I'd want him out is that the Tories would be a much less potent electoral force without him. However, since Labour has decided to participate in a period of insanity, this doesn't really matter. If not Cameron, I quite like Jeremy Hunt....
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
I think you're underestimating the affection within Labour, and particularly the PLP, for Europe.
As for Cameron: I can see why some on the left might have wet dreams over Cameron resigning over a lost EU referendum, but it might not happen - it would depend on how it is played. And as I said the other day, there's always the chance that Cameron recommends a 'leave' vote.
The only parties not particularly endangered by the referendum are the Lib Dems - who are consistently for staying in - and the SNP. There are dragons awaiting everyone else.
I do like Javid's urbane welcome: "He started by congratulating Corbyn on his election. He said he and Corbyn had two things in common. First, they would never be seen eating a bacon sandwich. And, second, they both went into politics to improve the lives of their constituents."
I thought Javid claimed to no longer being a practicing Muslim. Is he practicing again?
Presumably, he grew up not eating pork. As an adult he stopped being a practising Muslim. That step did not require him to start eating pork.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
I think you're underestimating the affection within Labour, and particularly the PLP, for Europe.
As for Cameron: I can see why some on the left might have wet dreams over Cameron resigning over a lost EU referendum, but it might not happen - it would depend on how it is played. And as I said the other day, there's always the chance that Cameron recommends a 'leave' vote.
The only parties not particularly endangered by the referendum are the Lib Dems - who are consistently for staying in - and the SNP. There are dragons awaiting everyone else.
I know no-one is predicting it, but if Cameron simply came out and said "Unfortunately, there are now major dangers to remaining in the EU, and unfortunately, there is a serious unwillingness to reform. We must remain close trading partners and allies, but union is no longer tenable" then he would cause Leave to win by a landslide.
He would then be in control to negotiate a new trade treaty. If the UK then continued to grow (as it did after the ERM drop-out unexpectedly), while the EU stagnated under Euro and migrant problems, then he would be looked back on as one of the real big beasts of Tory Prime Ministers. Labour, Corbynista and Blairite alike, would be left floundering as they had to adjust to the new circumstances.
No-one may be predicting it, but I've been floating that idea since before the GE,
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
and who would step up do you think?
I don't know but I do think Sajid Javed would scare the hell out of a lot of Labour people.
Cyclefree that's a really thoughtful and well-expressed post. I hope responses are equally considerate.
In truth, and not playing here (which I am a tiny touch today), there are evils on both, or rather, all, sides in the Middle East. I don't exempt Israel from that but neither do I exempt some of the others. Where I agree with Corbyn, and passionately disagree with Cameron, is that the only solution is to bring together as many moderate voices as possible into an agreement. What we must NOT do is yet more bombing.
If 40 years ago you'd have suggested the same approach to Northern Ireland you'd have been accused of being a threat to national security.
Thank you.
40 years that was suggested. Those who worked hard for it were not accused in the way you suggest. It was known as the Sunningdale Agreement. And it was brought down by the Unionists and strikes and the British government caved in.
That is one reason why the latest peace agreement was tartly called "Sunningdale for slow learners".
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn has increased Cameron's majority by up to 16 just by appointing McDonnell.
@SouthamObserver - He might last longer than you expect, because he'll have people around him - McDonnell, Meacher, Abott, Ken Livingstone, and most important Len McCluskey - who will be telling him that he got a huge mandate (which is true enough), and that all the criticism is just unfair attacks from capitalists, Zionists, racists, Tories, big business, neo-cons, the Murdoch press, the Daily Mail, and, lowest of all low-life, Blairites.
I think that he really does believe that the nutty causes he espouses do in fact amount to a great popular movement which the aforementioned elite vested interests have oppressed, and he'll try to connect with this non-existent popular movement. He'll even get some superficial support from rallies and Twitter which will convince him that it's for real. Why wouldn't he believe this? He's believed it all his life, but only now has a chance to do anything about it.
I'd previously thought JC was the vested one.
I think we should adopt The Vested One as the nom de plume we give JC, rather like The Special One at Chelsea.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
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No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
I think you're underestimating the affection within Labour, and particularly the PLP, for Europe.
As for Cameron: I can see why some on the left might have wet dreams over Cameron resigning over a lost EU referendum, but it might not happen - it would depend on how it is played. And as I said the other day, there's always the chance that Cameron recommends a 'leave' vote.
The only parties not particularly endangered by the referendum are the Lib Dems - who are consistently for staying in - and the SNP. There are dragons awaiting everyone else.
I know no-one is predicting it, but if Cameron simply came out and said "Unfortunately, there are now major dangers to remaining in the EU, and unfortunately, there is a serious unwillingness to reform. We must remain close trading partners and allies, but union is no longer tenable" then he would cause Leave to win by a landslide.
He would then be in control to negotiate a new trade treaty. If the UK then continued to grow (as it did after the ERM drop-out unexpectedly), while the EU stagnated under Euro and migrant problems, then he would be looked back on as one of the real big beasts of Tory Prime Ministers. Labour, Corbynista and Blairite alike, would be left floundering as they had to adjust to the new circumstances.
No-one may be predicting it, but I've been floating that idea since before the GE,
Yes its plausible. But at the moment think speculation about the EU is a bit pointless. Germany have just introduced internal borders for goodness sake and Hungary are building a dirty great fence. The problem - the danger quite frankly - is Schengen and being pushed into it as the price of leaving the EU. The EEA is a quite plausible option but it is really no different to now, its just that we have to avoid Schengen, protect our financial services industry and still be able to encourage inward investment. In other respects we really do not know at this stage how the Eurocrisis and mass migration are going to affect the ever closer union of the Eurozone.
Aside from the obvious by-election losses that could bring down Cameron before 2020: remember, it may only take 5 losses to fell him, there's another possibility.
Suppose Corbyn does campaign for NO together with a sizeable chunk of the new Corbynistas. Allied with UKIP and the Tory eurosceptics this makes the NO vote suddenly a very attractive betting option.
It also makes for another route whereby Cameron could be forced out. Can you imagine him campaigning to stay in, losing the vote and staying on?
Corbyn campaigning to leave might cause more problems for the Labour Party than it would for Cameron and the Conservatives. Far more Labour MPs and supporters are wedded to the European project than Conservative MPs.
I mean, it might even force thoroughly pro-EU Nick to divert from the party line. Or, given his recent behaviour, perhaps not ...
No, I agree with that except that for Corbyn it's not a do or die issue for him and his party. It's not him that has stuck his neck on the block over a European vote. If Corbyn's true to his word, that people can say what the hell they like (wtf?!! Yay!) then it won't matter to Labour. Those who want to campaign No can, those who don't, won't. But for Cameron, losing the vote would mean stepping down I think?
I think you're underestimating the affection within Labour, and particularly the PLP, for Europe.
As for Cameron: I can see why some on the left might have wet dreams over Cameron resigning over a lost EU referendum, but it might not happen - it would depend on how it is played. And as I said the other day, there's always the chance that Cameron recommends a 'leave' vote.
The only parties not particularly endangered by the referendum are the Lib Dems - who are consistently for staying in - and the SNP. There are dragons awaiting everyone else.
I know no-one is predicting it, but if Cameron simply came out and said "Unfortunately, there are now major dangers to remaining in the EU, and unfortunately, there is a serious unwillingness to reform. We must remain close trading partners and allies, but union is no longer tenable" then he would cause Leave to win by a landslide.
He would then be in control to negotiate a new trade treaty. If the UK then continued to grow (as it did after the ERM drop-out unexpectedly), while the EU stagnated under Euro and migrant problems, then he would be looked back on as one of the real big beasts of Tory Prime Ministers. Labour, Corbynista and Blairite alike, would be left floundering as they had to adjust to the new circumstances.
Cameron could then use this to stay on as leader and go on to win the next GE.
Cameron will never, ever, ever support Brexit. Ever. Nor will Osborne. The British national interest is simply a union jack waistcoat to dust down and wear when expedient for them, as we've seen time and time again. I don't think they hate Britain, I'm sure they rather like it in a country pub/leather on willow sort of way, but I also don't think for a minute they take the prospect of a strong and independent UK seriously, indeed I'm sure they find the notion hilarious. We are a US subsidiary. They need us in the EU as part of the effort to keep it US oriented, as opposed to being tempted off into the arms of Russia. As long as that's the strategy, Cameron will do all he can to keep us in.
Comments
Who was the person who signed treaties in the EU bringing us ever closer, like a single market but gave the impression of being anti-EU. Mrs Thatcher.
Did anyone ever think then that Britain would pull out of the EU ?
Osborne: 3.05
Johnson: 5.3
May: 9.2
Javid: 10
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.101193124
Corbyn appears to be on a mission to make Milliband seem like a political genius and Brown to have perfect mental health.
The tory attack ad is perfect, it targets the whole labour movement and a good idea to start now as perceptions take time to form and you don't know how long corbyn will remain as leader.
Others have already mentioned that Corbyn may well face a great deal of mental anguish in his new position.
Good.
Nasty authoritarians as Corbyn certainly is, most definately deserve this.
As to how long he remains leader, I don't know. As I can see him hanging on like a limpet to a crushing defeat or being ousted by labour MP's concerned about their go on the gravy train. I can't see him doing the decent thing and resigning for the good of the party.
(McDonnall, the Eagle bros, hahahahahahahahahahah)
1. Corbyn first or Cameron? Betting market?
2. If Cameron goes following a NO vote who then is likeliest next leader? We've assumed a 2019 coronation for Osborne but would a crushing NO defeat raise the prospect of someone else, perhaps from the eurosceptic wing, becoming PM?
I think there has been a lot of assumption on here that Labour are in trouble but forget the biggest division in any main party has been the tories over Europe and that's only going to get more serious during the next c12-18 months, a foretaste of which we had last week.
As an additional point, Governments losing votes in the Commons look weak.
As an aside, Estobar is an anagram of Arsebot.
With a moderate leader, I would agree. With Corbyn, I really can;t see it.
Let's stick to debating policies not being personal.
And who will lead this collection of Corbynistas, Faragites and Backbench Davidians?
New Thread New Thread
I just think that for all the excitement on here re. Corbyn's Labour, this 2015-2020 parliament is full of some extraordinary possibilities. We've not seen anything like this in a long time.
I too think Paddy's 11/10 is a decent bet, but tieing up money for so long seems unattractive. I'm happy to do so on betfair as one can generally get out again.
I'd hope that a few more Corbyn markets go up on Betfair - mind you they've been good at getting an exit date and next labour leader market up quite swiftly.
Ideal Tory position probably is for Labour to get regular 1 point leads in the midterm polls under Corbyn making it harder for him to be challenged.
He would then be in control to negotiate a new trade treaty. If the UK then continued to grow (as it did after the ERM drop-out unexpectedly), while the EU stagnated under Euro and migrant problems, then he would be looked back on as one of the real big beasts of Tory Prime Ministers. Labour, Corbynista and Blairite alike, would be left floundering as they had to adjust to the new circumstances.
40 years that was suggested. Those who worked hard for it were not accused in the way you suggest. It was known as the Sunningdale Agreement. And it was brought down by the Unionists and strikes and the British government caved in.
That is one reason why the latest peace agreement was tartly called "Sunningdale for slow learners".
I think we should adopt The Vested One as the nom de plume we give JC, rather like The Special One at Chelsea.
The problem - the danger quite frankly - is Schengen and being pushed into it as the price of leaving the EU. The EEA is a quite plausible option but it is really no different to now, its just that we have to avoid Schengen, protect our financial services industry and still be able to encourage inward investment.
In other respects we really do not know at this stage how the Eurocrisis and mass migration are going to affect the ever closer union of the Eurozone.
It was the moment when it actually sunk in that this is actually happening.