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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his surviva

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,928

    On topic: Assuming that Corbyn is announced as the winner on Saturday, Mike is of course right that his survival chances will depend on the size of his mandate. I'm not sure that a win on first prefs is necessary - it just needs to be a clear win.

    Just as important, though, will be whether he is the winner amongst full party members, i.e. whether his victory is dependent on the three-quidders. If he is the winner amongst full party members (which YouGov indicated would be the case), then the justification for immediately plotting against him is going to look threadbare and undemocratic.

    The recipe for maximum intensity of civil war would be a close result overall and if he would not be the winner if only full party members had had a vote.

    Still, even in the most optimistic scenario from Labour's point of view the civil war is going to be bloody and protracted.

    EdM won via unions and contra to the PLP, didn't he?

    I didn't notice a coup during his leadership. Once Lab has a leader, be it Jezza or any of the others, they are stuck with him.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:


    How is 5 years in the Netherlands the same as 8 years in Germany? And no Somalians are not the only comparison we can make to Syrians.

    Also I'm curious about intellectual integrity of your statistics. Is that 30% of all of Somalian origin who live in the UK who work? Or 30% of those who came from the Netherlands after 5 years who work? The two are not the same thing.

    EDIT: Afterall as we've shown Germany only grants citizenship to those who are steadily working, not those who are not. If the Netherlands is the same then assuming 70% there don't work they won't get citizenship and so can't come to the UK. If they're not the same, then its not the same. Either way it looks like a lazy and intellectually false comparison

    If large numbers (up to half) have not put down solid roots after five years, then large numbers will do so after just three more. Even if the rate halves relative because of the extra three years relative to the Somali case, then around 25% will come here. Those are huge numbers.

    As for "lazy and intellectually false" comparisons, unsurprisingly data is not released on the precise cross-cutting categories you require. I am basing my opinions on the best data that is available. You are basing your opinions on entirely hypothesised differences, without any data to back you your assumptions.
    So you are comparing apples with oranges then. If German roots are not put down, German citizenship is not granted. If citizenship is not granted, they can't come over.

    So what it comes down to is that you're complaining about "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics" but what you are doing is "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics". People who come here after spending 8 years in Germany, being granted citizenship only if they have steady employment and knowing the local language etc are not the same as people who come here direct from Somalia. But lets hide them in that group.
    There is substantial evidence of the difference in economic performance between immigrants of different nationalities. You have absolutely no evidence that Somalis in the UK that came straight from Somalia are any different to Somalis in the UK that came via the Netherlands, other than your own speculation.
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    On topic: Assuming that Corbyn is announced as the winner on Saturday, Mike is of course right that his survival chances will depend on the size of his mandate. I'm not sure that a win on first prefs is necessary - it just needs to be a clear win.

    Just as important, though, will be whether he is the winner amongst full party members, i.e. whether his victory is dependent on the three-quidders. If he is the winner amongst full party members (which YouGov indicated would be the case), then the justification for immediately plotting against him is going to look threadbare and undemocratic.

    The recipe for maximum intensity of civil war would be a close result overall and if he would not be the winner if only full party members had had a vote.

    Still, even in the most optimistic scenario from Labour's point of view the civil war is going to be bloody and protracted.

    Question if he wins say 44% of Labour members but 51% of votes will we find out if he'd have won overall with Labour members only or not? If he wins on round 1 there's no need to process transfers so we might never know.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2015
    TOPPING said:

    EdM won via unions and contra to the PLP, didn't he?

    I didn't notice a coup during his leadership. Once Lab has a leader, be it Jezza or any of the others, they are stuck with him.

    Ed M wasn't such a loony that Labour MPs couldn't work with him, and he had a reasonable level of MP support even if he wasn't their first choice, so it's not a comparable situation. All the same, I tend to agree that Labour will be stuck with Comrade Corbyn for some time, quite probably until the next election. With luck there will be some good betting opportunities to profit from putsch speculation which comes to nothing.
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    Question if he wins say 44% of Labour members but 51% of votes will we find out if he'd have won overall with Labour members only or not? If he wins on round 1 there's no need to process transfers so we might never know.

    True.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,557

    rcs1000 said:

    Can we have a moratorium on the phrase "virtue signalling" please?

    Come on, it's pretty useful in the tedious wanker signalling stakes.
    Hmmm I do after all see a use for it
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    JEO said:

    So you are comparing apples with oranges then. If German roots are not put down, German citizenship is not granted. If citizenship is not granted, they can't come over.

    So what it comes down to is that you're complaining about "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics" but what you are doing is "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics". People who come here after spending 8 years in Germany, being granted citizenship only if they have steady employment and knowing the local language etc are not the same as people who come here direct from Somalia. But lets hide them in that group.

    There is substantial evidence of the difference in economic performance between immigrants of different nationalities. You have absolutely no evidence that Somalis in the UK that came straight from Somalia are any different to Somalis in the UK that came via the Netherlands, other than your own speculation.
    Actually I do. Somali unemployment is different based on time spent in the UK and year of entry to the UK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalis_in_the_United_Kingdom#Employment

    The numbers are deflated by the fact that those who are seeking asylum after coming directly are FORBIDDEN by law from working. So those who are coming direct from Somalia are banned from working - which unsurprisingly leads to people not working. Whereas if EU citizenship has been granted then those who are coming over indirect are permitted to work as soon as they arrive in the UK. If citizenship is conditional on holding steady employment then you are contrasting people who can only come if they have held a job to people who are banned from taking a job when they come.

    So you've cherrypicked the most extreme racial example to suit your agenda without thinking it through.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Surprised everyone thinks this is so nailed on.

    Social media hoopla doesn't result in election victories.

    See Ukip rising, Indy ref and GE 2015.

    If Corbo did win it would buck the trend - add in the non voting numbers - I 've banked some of my Corbo punts by laying off most of them.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,928

    TOPPING said:

    EdM won via unions and contra to the PLP, didn't he?

    I didn't notice a coup during his leadership. Once Lab has a leader, be it Jezza or any of the others, they are stuck with him.

    Ed M wasn't such a loony that Labour MPs couldn't work with him, and he had a reasonable level of MP support even if he wasn't their first choice, so it's not a comparable situation. All the same, I tend to agree that Labour will be stuck with Comrade Corbyn for some time, quite probably until the next election. With luck there will be some good betting opportunities to profit from putsch speculation which comes to nothing.
    I think a lot of Lab MPs will retreat into their student-era new socialist, or "true" labour comfort zone. Members seem to want to tack left, the majority of their Lab-voting constituents probably don't care or at least don't have an alternative. And you will delight and be a hero to those members or constituents who really do want to go left.

    Why not fall in under such circs?

    Of course it won't deliver a Lab govt but unless you are an ambitious go-getter who wants a position of influence, not to say to lead the party or be PM, and those are in the minority, then what do you care??

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    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    EdM won via unions and contra to the PLP, didn't he?

    I didn't notice a coup during his leadership. Once Lab has a leader, be it Jezza or any of the others, they are stuck with him.

    Ed M wasn't such a loony that Labour MPs couldn't work with him, and he had a reasonable level of MP support even if he wasn't their first choice, so it's not a comparable situation. All the same, I tend to agree that Labour will be stuck with Comrade Corbyn for some time, quite probably until the next election. With luck there will be some good betting opportunities to profit from putsch speculation which comes to nothing.
    I think a lot of Lab MPs will retreat into their student-era new socialist, or "true" labour comfort zone. Members seem to want to tack left, the majority of their Lab-voting constituents probably don't care or at least don't have an alternative. And you will delight and be a hero to those members or constituents who really do want to go left.

    Why not fall in under such circs?

    Of course it won't deliver a Lab govt but unless you are an ambitious go-getter who wants a position of influence, not to say to lead the party or be PM, and those are in the minority, then what do you care??

    Not only that but I think many may conclude (rightly) that if they decapitate Corbyn early then the members will just replace him with the most left-wing leader on the ballot again - and given threats of deselection by an active left wing membership plus a hardcore of lefties like Abbott a lefty would be on the ballot again.

    In which case unless you hold a marginal seat it may be better to let Corbyn fail and then to step forward to take Labour forwards after the far left's been discredited for another generation.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,557

    Any non-SNP paying attention to the Carmichael case?
    Dull stuff but his side at one point claiming the Human Rights Act as his freedom of expression...
    Presumably stating that he had a right to tell lies?
    It stinks. In shoring up Carmichael the Lib Dems , as with Rennard, are trying to defend the indefensible.

    True to form for Lib Dems. Wonder if they will ever pay Scottish Police the £800K bill they welched on. Bet fatty is getting legal aid as well or taxpayers are paying for it some other way.
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    TOPPING said:

    EdM won via unions and contra to the PLP, didn't he?

    I didn't notice a coup during his leadership. Once Lab has a leader, be it Jezza or any of the others, they are stuck with him.

    Ed M wasn't such a loony that Labour MPs couldn't work with him, and he had a reasonable level of MP support even if he wasn't their first choice, so it's not a comparable situation. All the same, I tend to agree that Labour will be stuck with Comrade Corbyn for some time, quite probably until the next election. With luck there will be some good betting opportunities to profit from putsch speculation which comes to nothing.
    I think after leaving Ed Miliband in place not necessarily working out to their advantage they'll be a bit keener to ditch the next person if they look like a lemon in mid-to-late-term.

    But Corbyn's a bit tricky, because knifing him without good cause would look like right-wing insiders screwing the base. The Tories will have to hope he doesn't poll too badly.
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    For light relief, ISIS Karaoke is a rather super Twitter account:

    https://twitter.com/isis_karaoke?lang=en-gb
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree does your example of those most in need extend to the Kurds? A group of people persecuted not just by the Syrians but frankly for their own reasons treated with contempt by "safe" Turkey they are retreating to too.

    From what I know of the Kurds, I think they probably do have a claim for help, as they did when they were being persecuted by Saddam.

    Aren't there though safe areas for the Kurds in the region?

    I don't know enough about the details, though.

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    Another factor for those who might want to lead Labour to consider that could put them off standing against Corbyn is that if Corbyn does wreck Labour then the 2020 election by the time of a leadership coup could be viewed as a lost cause already. Those who want to be PM may not want to replace Corbyn only to lose an election, in which case let Corbyn lose it then spend five years as LOTO trying to win a very winnable 2025 vote.

    If Corbyn wins then short of him standing down he's more likely than not to face the 2020 election IMO.
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    I'm not sure at all that our Laura is right in saying Cameron has 'completely changed' his position:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34172716
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    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree does your example of those most in need extend to the Kurds? A group of people persecuted not just by the Syrians but frankly for their own reasons treated with contempt by "safe" Turkey they are retreating to too.

    From what I know of the Kurds, I think they probably do have a claim for help, as they did when they were being persecuted by Saddam.

    Aren't there though safe areas for the Kurds in the region?

    I don't know enough about the details, though.

    The Kurds took over and ran some land in what they call Kurdistan in Northern Syria but ISIL have overran a lot of it and threaten the rest of it.

    I can't think of any nation in the region that treats Kurds well.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080
    rcs1000 said:

    Two book recommendations:

    Just very much enjoyed reading I am Pilgrim, a slightly superior thriller.

    Currently loving Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.

    Told you you'd like it.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    peterbuss said:

    What planet is Yvette Cooper on. Last week she said we should take 10,000 refugees and this morning she has upped that to 50,000. What a dreadful and cynical approach to do it because it is likely that the Govt will far exceed her original number of refugees .It also runs way beyond what the opinion polls say would be acceptable to the great majority of the British public.

    Yes, it is cynical. It also fuels the arguments of those who say we should do nothing to help, because as soon as you help, more is demanded from you.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    So you are comparing apples with oranges then. If German roots are not put down, German citizenship is not granted. If citizenship is not granted, they can't come over.

    So what it comes down to is that you're complaining about "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics" but what you are doing is "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics". People who come here after spending 8 years in Germany, being granted citizenship only if they have steady employment and knowing the local language etc are not the same as people who come here direct from Somalia. But lets hide them in that group.

    There is substantial evidence of the difference in economic performance between immigrants of different nationalities. You have absolutely no evidence that Somalis in the UK that came straight from Somalia are any different to Somalis in the UK that came via the Netherlands, other than your own speculation.
    Actually I do. Somali unemployment is different based on time spent in the UK and year of entry to the UK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalis_in_the_United_Kingdom#Employment

    The numbers are deflated by the fact that those who are seeking asylum after coming directly are FORBIDDEN by law from working. So those who are coming direct from Somalia are banned from working - which unsurprisingly leads to people not working. Whereas if EU citizenship has been granted then those who are coming over indirect are permitted to work as soon as they arrive in the UK. If citizenship is conditional on holding steady employment then you are contrasting people who can only come if they have held a job to people who are banned from taking a job when they come.

    So you've cherrypicked the most extreme racial example to suit your agenda without thinking it through.
    The numbers you have just linked do not show what you are claiming at all. They show the distribution of Somalis that are working among different professions, not employment rates. Thus, people forbidden from working are not included in the numbers. Even if they were, it certainly wouldn't explain the gap 40 percentage point gap between Somalis and the rest of the population, as asylum applications typically take about a year, and the numbers you showed 10 year periods.

    I also have not cherry picked anything. I have chosen the last large group of asylum seekers that came from the broader Middle East. Ideally, we would use Iraqis, but I could not find any data on those. It is also not a "racial example", being based on country of birth rather than ethnicity. It seems you are struggling to understand the statistics.
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    Any non-SNP paying attention to the Carmichael case?
    Dull stuff but his side at one point claiming the Human Rights Act as his freedom of expression...
    Presumably stating that he had a right to tell lies?
    It stinks. In shoring up Carmichael the Lib Dems , as with Rennard, are trying to defend the indefensible.

    How is what Carmichael did different to going on TV and lying about having legal advice that Scotland would remain a member of the EU if it voted for independence?

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    '@SkyNewsBreak: Francois Hollande says France will accept 24,000 refugees under European Commission's plan & crisis "can and will" be brought under control'


    Is Hollande going to start with the 5,000 refugees in Calais that he's been ignoring for the past four years ?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,355
    It's not the numbers, it's the culture.

    Happy to receive plenty of migrants who are Christian (even vaguely), drink beer and don't mind the sight of a naked ankle on a woman. Not so keen on those who disapprove of the last two and may disappear one weekend to blow up Stonehenge.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    '@SkyNewsBreak: Francois Hollande says France will accept 24,000 refugees under European Commission's plan & crisis "can and will" be brought under control'


    Is Hollande going to start with the 5,000 refugees in Calais that he's been ignoring for the past four years ?

    Many of the 5,000 are not refugees. Judging by their behaviour, they're exactly the sort of people that neither the UK nor France would want.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree does your example of those most in need extend to the Kurds? A group of people persecuted not just by the Syrians but frankly for their own reasons treated with contempt by "safe" Turkey they are retreating to too.

    From what I know of the Kurds, I think they probably do have a claim for help, as they did when they were being persecuted by Saddam.

    Aren't there though safe areas for the Kurds in the region?

    I don't know enough about the details, though.

    The Kurds took over and ran some land in what they call Kurdistan in Northern Syria but ISIL have overran a lot of it and threaten the rest of it.

    I can't think of any nation in the region that treats Kurds well.
    Thank you.

    It would be best if we could create safe havens in the area and help those who are fighting IS, to the extent that (a) we can do so; and (b) avoid helping those who are as bad or even worse than them - a big ask, I realise. The Kurds are doing a lot of the fighting so they should be given help - though I realise that creates a lot of complications with Turkey, who seem a bit two-faced about the whole Syria/IS/Iraq issue.

    But second to that we should certainly help those people facing persecution and genocide and the groups I've identified are those to whom we should give priority and about whom - in the tsunami of emoting over the last few days and weeks - very little has been said. Christians are the most persecuted in the Middle East - and by some of our so-called allies too. We owe it to them to help. If we don't they face genocide - and of a type very similar in its murderous totality as that done by the Germans to the Jews.

    If the Germans really want to atone for WW2, this is where they should be focusing. Not letting in aggressive young men from Pakistan and Afghanistan and all sorts of other countries masquerading as Syrian refugees.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    For light relief, ISIS Karaoke is a rather super Twitter account:

    https://twitter.com/isis_karaoke?lang=en-gb

    This one prob rings true for a lot of those that have gone to help the brothers

    https://twitter.com/isis_karaoke/status/640109555645591552
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    Labour's leadership contest descended into chaos today with one contender poised to call for the result to be delayed by three days.

    Concern is mounting about the number of party members, including senior former Cabinet ministers, who have still not received ballot papers ahead of Saturday's result.

    MailOnline has learned that one leadership contender is preparing to call for voting to be extended for 72 hours in what is expected to be a close contest.

    http://dailym.ai/1LTcP6u
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree does your example of those most in need extend to the Kurds? A group of people persecuted not just by the Syrians but frankly for their own reasons treated with contempt by "safe" Turkey they are retreating to too.

    From what I know of the Kurds, I think they probably do have a claim for help, as they did when they were being persecuted by Saddam.

    Aren't there though safe areas for the Kurds in the region?

    I don't know enough about the details, though.

    The Kurds took over and ran some land in what they call Kurdistan in Northern Syria but ISIL have overran a lot of it and threaten the rest of it.

    I can't think of any nation in the region that treats Kurds well.
    Thank you.

    It would be best if we could create safe havens in the area and help those who are fighting IS, to the extent that (a) we can do so; and (b) avoid helping those who are as bad or even worse than them - a big ask, I realise. The Kurds are doing a lot of the fighting so they should be given help - though I realise that creates a lot of complications with Turkey, who seem a bit two-faced about the whole Syria/IS/Iraq issue.

    But second to that we should certainly help those people facing persecution and genocide and the groups I've identified are those to whom we should give priority and about whom - in the tsunami of emoting over the last few days and weeks - very little has been said. Christians are the most persecuted in the Middle East - and by some of our so-called allies too. We owe it to them to help. If we don't they face genocide - and of a type very similar in its murderous totality as that done by the Germans to the Jews.

    If the Germans really want to atone for WW2, this is where they should be focusing. Not letting in aggressive young men from Pakistan and Afghanistan and all sorts of other countries masquerading as Syrian refugees.
    A good reason for prioritising Christians and Yazidis is that there are far fewer places you can escape to than if you're a Sunni or Shia Muslim.
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    Love the Adidas tops..
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    Labour's leadership contest descended into chaos today with one contender poised to call for the result to be delayed by three days.

    Concern is mounting about the number of party members, including senior former Cabinet ministers, who have still not received ballot papers ahead of Saturday's result.

    MailOnline has learned that one leadership contender is preparing to call for voting to be extended for 72 hours in what is expected to be a close contest.

    http://dailym.ai/1LTcP6u

    another three days? will this never end?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    '@SkyNewsBreak: Francois Hollande says France will accept 24,000 refugees under European Commission's plan & crisis "can and will" be brought under control'


    Is Hollande going to start with the 5,000 refugees in Calais that he's been ignoring for the past four years ?

    Many of the 5,000 are not refugees. Judging by their behaviour, they're exactly the sort of people that neither the UK nor France would want.
    Syrians in Hungary chanting "Germany" in English
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    SB Do these people really think they would be able to run the fifth largest economy in the world...they cant even get their own election right.
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    No more Northern Ireland Executive meetings save for exceptional circumstances, say the DUP:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-21200389
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    Well said Cyclefree
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree does your example of those most in need extend to the Kurds? A group of people persecuted not just by the Syrians but frankly for their own reasons treated with contempt by "safe" Turkey they are retreating to too.

    From what I know of the Kurds, I think they probably do have a claim for help, as they did when they were being persecuted by Saddam.

    Aren't there though safe areas for the Kurds in the region?

    I don't know enough about the details, though.

    The Kurds took over and ran some land in what they call Kurdistan in Northern Syria but ISIL have overran a lot of it and threaten the rest of it.

    I can't think of any nation in the region that treats Kurds well.
    Thank you.

    It would be best if we could create safe havens in the area and help those who are fighting IS, to the extent that (a) we can do so; and (b) avoid helping those who are as bad or even worse than them - a big ask, I realise. The Kurds are doing a lot of the fighting so they should be given help - though I realise that creates a lot of complications with Turkey, who seem a bit two-faced about the whole Syria/IS/Iraq issue.

    But second to that we should certainly help those people facing persecution and genocide and the groups I've identified are those to whom we should give priority and about whom - in the tsunami of emoting over the last few days and weeks - very little has been said. Christians are the most persecuted in the Middle East - and by some of our so-called allies too. We owe it to them to help. If we don't they face genocide - and of a type very similar in its murderous totality as that done by the Germans to the Jews.

    If the Germans really want to atone for WW2, this is where they should be focusing. Not letting in aggressive young men from Pakistan and Afghanistan and all sorts of other countries masquerading as Syrian refugees.
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    JEO said:


    The numbers you have just linked do not show what you are claiming at all. They show the distribution of Somalis that are working among different professions, not employment rates. Thus, people forbidden from working are not included in the numbers. Even if they were, it certainly wouldn't explain the gap 40 percentage point gap between Somalis and the rest of the population, as asylum applications typically take about a year, and the numbers you showed 10 year periods.

    I also have not cherry picked anything. I have chosen the last large group of asylum seekers that came from the broader Middle East. Ideally, we would use Iraqis, but I could not find any data on those. It is also not a "racial example", being based on country of birth rather than ethnicity. It seems you are struggling to understand the statistics.

    Actually they do.
    "Additionally, asylum seekers are also not normally allowed to work for payment while their claims are being processed ..."

    "Employment rates also steadily increased over time, with 20% of the refugees in employment 8 months after the asylum decision, 28 per cent in employment after 15 months, and 39 per cent after 21 months."
    We're talking about people who would be resident in Germany for 96 months and can only claim citizenship if steadily employed. Not people arriving starting off banned from working.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,080

    Any non-SNP paying attention to the Carmichael case?
    Dull stuff but his side at one point claiming the Human Rights Act as his freedom of expression...
    Presumably stating that he had a right to tell lies?
    It stinks. In shoring up Carmichael the Lib Dems , as with Rennard, are trying to defend the indefensible.

    How is what Carmichael did different to going on TV and lying about having legal advice that Scotland would remain a member of the EU if it voted for independence?

    Bet you don't believe in Papal Infallibility either SO. Here in Scotland you have to get with the program.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited September 2015
    @Sean_F

    'Many of the 5,000 are not refugees. Judging by their behaviour, they're exactly the sort of people that neither the UK nor France would want.'

    My comment was with tongue in cheek..

    Agree, which sane country would want people that close down a ferry port, are violent with truck drivers, bring the economy of Kent to a standstill & trash people's holidays.


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    Cyclefree I agree with you there.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    edited September 2015
    john_zims said:

    @Sean_F

    'Many of the 5,000 are not refugees. Judging by their behaviour, they're exactly the sort of people that neither the UK nor France would want.'

    My comment was with tongue in cheek..

    Agree, which sane country would want people that close down a ferry port, are violent with truck drivers, bring the economy of Kent to a standstill and trash people's holidays.

    Striking union members? ;)
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 937
    From the Daily mail piece about the Labour Party leadership election "But now one camp is considering making a formal demand for the entire contest to be delayed to ensure the result cannot be called into question."

    No, no - lets have a rerun of the election!



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    john_zims said:

    @Sean_F

    'Many of the 5,000 are not refugees. Judging by their behaviour, they're exactly the sort of people that neither the UK nor France would want.'

    My comment was with tongue in cheek..

    Agree, which sane country would want people that close down a ferry port, are violent with truck drivers, bring the economy of Kent to a standstill & trash people's holidays.

    I don't know if you're joking, but doesn't that apply to striking French workers?
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    New Thread New Thread

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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Labour's leadership contest descended into chaos today with one contender poised to call for the result to be delayed by three days.

    Concern is mounting about the number of party members, including senior former Cabinet ministers, who have still not received ballot papers ahead of Saturday's result.

    MailOnline has learned that one leadership contender is preparing to call for voting to be extended for 72 hours in what is expected to be a close contest.

    http://dailym.ai/1LTcP6u

    '... including senior former Cabinet ministers, who have still not received ballot papers ahead of Saturday's result.'

    Someone predicted this here, last week.
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    I know the announcement is on the 12th, but what date does Labour stop accepting votes?

    If some people still haven't received their ballots, one can imagine they may struggle to get their vote in on time.

    Voting closes in just under 3 days - but can be done right up to the deadline.

    http://show.nojam.com/a2sV/feature1.php?c=0&b=2

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