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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his surviva

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    rcs1000 said:

    Two book recommendations:

    Just very much enjoyed reading I am Pilgrim, a slightly superior thriller.

    Currently loving Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.

    Paul Kennedy's is a truly awesome book.
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    Mr. Jessop, it seems daft to me.

    Cameron hasn't even finished being PM yet. He could still do something fantastic/terrible which will define his premiership.

    It's like sportsman who write [or have written] biographies at 23.

    The biographies of Hannibal, Caesar and Basil II based on what they were doing in their early 20s would be drastically different to proper reviews of their entire lives.

    Interim biographies serve one great purpose: they provide a record that is *not* skewed by the knowledge of what was to come or what the settled historic opinion would be. For example,

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H
    A good point. But they are also skewed by people's personal ambitions and political positions.

    On this subject, is anyone doing a decent biog of Miliband? In fact, a better one might be of both Milibands, now their front-rank careers are over.
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    rcs1000 said:

    Can we have a moratorium on the phrase "virtue signalling" please?

    Come on, it's pretty useful in the tedious wanker signalling stakes.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,913
    edited September 2015
    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    Why would any Council spend resources anwwering questions from someone who not even "not the Prime Minister".

    Sanctimonious twattery?
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015
    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    Cooper's slipperiness is so obvious - consistently incapable or unwilling to give a straight answer to a question.

    She'd be a worse Labour leader than Corbyn.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,587
    watford30 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    She'd be a worse Labour leader than Corbyn.
    She would. Undoubtedly. God they really are up sh*t creek.
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    This story's quite something:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-34151528

    If you did want to give a student fake negative results in an exam, it's rather stupid to make the results zero in so many tests. Not only is such faking corruption, but it's patently stupid.

    Whoever did it should get a big fat zero in their corruption test ...
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    I believe I suggested using the foreign aid budget in a post last week, as part of a bigger 'plan' (if random witterings could be so called).
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    watford30 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    Cooper's slipperiness is so obvious - consistently incapable or unwilling to give a straight answer to a question.

    She'd be a worse Labour leader than Corbyn.
    She’s always been over rated – Mr Cooper had all the Balls and brains in the family imho.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    A morning rearranging the deck chairs, over at the BBC.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-34168310
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    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,587

    watford30 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    Cooper's slipperiness is so obvious - consistently incapable or unwilling to give a straight answer to a question.

    She'd be a worse Labour leader than Corbyn.
    She’s always been over rated – Mr Cooper had all the Balls and brains in the family imho.
    The only way out of this for Lab would be the following:

    1. Jezza elected
    2. right-minded Lab supporters horrified
    3. epiphany: you do need to be centre-left
    3a. epiphany: to be Blairite-ish is not analagous to Nazi party membership.
    4. realisation leader must be competent, confident and even a bit of a bruiser.
    5. safe Lab seat comes up.
    6. Mr Cooper stands, wins.
    7. Mr Cooper overthrows Jezza and becomes leader.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    This Guardian report seems concerning. Hopefully the focus on the few tens of thousands of migrants roaming through Europe don't distract from the millions of refugees in the countries surrounding Syria.

    Also someone needs to tell France and Germany to finally meet their G8 commitment to 0.7% of GDP as international aid and to stop grandstanding.



    "The UN’s humanitarian agencies are on the verge of bankruptcy and unable to meet the basic needs of millions of people because of the size of the refugee crisis in the Middle East, Africa and Europe, senior figures within the UN have told the Guardian.

    Speaking to the Guardian, the UN high commissioner for refugees, António Guterres, said: “If you look at those displaced by conflict per day, in 2010 it was 11,000; last year there were 42,000. This means a dramatic increase in need, from shelter to water and sanitation, food, medical assistance, education.

    “The budgets cannot be compared with the growth in need. Our income in 2015 will be around 10% less than in 2014. The global humanitarian community is not broken – as a whole they are more effective than ever before. But we are financially broke.”"

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/06/refugee-crisis-un-agencies-broke-failing
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    Mr. Jessop, interesting definition, though.

    Crime intending to affect those known or perceived to be Muslim. Not sure that works, as a mugger could opportunistically target a Muslim (wearing a veil, so it's obvious) but do so based not on hating Muslims, just an opportunity presenting itself. But that would count as Islamophobic, whereas he would've just as happily targeted a Jew, atheist, or Pastafarian.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    Moses_ said:

    A few moments ago A new thread appeared and then just as quickly disappeared .....?

    Like Corby?

    Has Corby disappeared? I would have thought a large town going missing would have been on the news ... ;)
    Shite I think I may have given a Northamtonshire Town my 1st Preference
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    Mr. Owls, I wouldn't stress. The time to worry is when an administrative error accidentally leads to Jeremy Clarkson becoming leader of the Labour Party.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34168528

    Why would a child leave home to take the risky journey on their own from Africa, or Afghanistan, across Europe to Britain? Radio 4's Andrew Bomford was given rare access to a children's home for unaccompanied child asylum seekers.

    Shasli looks happy as he sits in the pale sunshine at a children's home near Ashford in Kent. He's been here eight weeks now, and has made lots of friends.

    But ask the 16-year-old from Sudan how he got here, and why he came, and his face darkens.
    "It was a very difficult journey. Every time I remember the journey and what I have been through, I get very sad and very upset."

    Shasli is one of 99 teenagers currently living at the Millbank Centre near Ashford...................

    But why was he so determined to come to the UK?

    "In some European countries they do not really take care of refugees.

    "But here in England I know this is a country of laws and that they do respect human beings. That's why I came here."
    ---------------------
    Even migrant children know what a soft touch the UK has become !!!!!!
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015

    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    A lot of these stories you get talking about percentage increases sound scary, but they're actually based on a very small base. The incidents numbers you mention here are just a few hundred, and many of these will be people shouting something unpleasant or pulling off a veil. These are tiny numbers compared to the number of people injured or killed by traffic accidents, or facial sexual assault and rape. In reality, we are a highly tolerant society.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    TOPPING said:

    watford30 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    Cooper's slipperiness is so obvious - consistently incapable or unwilling to give a straight answer to a question.

    She'd be a worse Labour leader than Corbyn.
    She’s always been over rated – Mr Cooper had all the Balls and brains in the family imho.
    The only way out of this for Lab would be the following:

    1. Jezza elected
    2. right-minded Lab supporters horrified
    3. epiphany: you do need to be centre-left
    3a. epiphany: to be Blairite-ish is not analagous to Nazi party membership.
    4. realisation leader must be competent, confident and even a bit of a bruiser.
    5. safe Lab seat comes up.
    6. Mr Cooper stands, wins.
    7. Mr Cooper overthrows Jezza and becomes leader.
    1.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/migrant-crisis-pakistanis-others-dumping-ids-to-become-syrian-20150906-gjggcn.html

    Migrant crisis: Pakistanis, others dumping IDs to become 'Syrian'

    Documents scattered only metres from Serbia's border with Hungary provide evidence that many of the migrants flooding Europe to escape war or poverty are scrapping their true nationalities and likely assuming new ones, just as they enter the European Union.

    Many of those migrants believe that using a fake document – or having none at all – gives them a better chance of receiving asylum in Germany and other western European states. That's because the surest route to asylum is to be a refugee from war and not an economic migrant fleeing poverty. That fact has led to a huge influx of people claiming to be Syrian.


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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,285

    This story's quite something:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-34151528

    If you did want to give a student fake negative results in an exam, it's rather stupid to make the results zero in so many tests. Not only is such faking corruption, but it's patently stupid.

    Whoever did it should get a big fat zero in their corruption test ...

    That's insane
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    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    TOPPING said:

    watford30 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Plato said:

    Did she mention 50k Syrians or 15k - I didn't quite catch it.

    watford30 said:

    Watford30... Bono and Roger are thinking about it... it may take some time..and lots of bolly..

    I note Cooper was on Radio 4's Today earlier, not answering questions as she does. She's another one, eager for everyone else to do something, but not overly keen to make her comfortable second home available for use.
    she answered nothing. It was pathetic. She has gone to the councils to ask what they want (apparently) but still wouldn't name a figure.

    Nor would she answer on funding.

    Diverting Britain's foreign aid budget to this IMO is a mini-masterstroke. If we are to have refugees (and right-minded centre/even farther right people agree we should) then what more sensible a way to lance the boil in the minds of the right about the 0.7% than to apply some of it at home. By any definition it qualifies as aid spending.
    Cooper's slipperiness is so obvious - consistently incapable or unwilling to give a straight answer to a question.

    She'd be a worse Labour leader than Corbyn.
    She’s always been over rated – Mr Cooper had all the Balls and brains in the family imho.
    The only way out of this for Lab would be the following:

    1. Jezza elected
    2. right-minded Lab supporters horrified
    3. epiphany: you do need to be centre-left
    3a. epiphany: to be Blairite-ish is not analagous to Nazi party membership.
    4. realisation leader must be competent, confident and even a bit of a bruiser.
    5. safe Lab seat comes up.
    6. Mr Cooper stands, wins.
    7. Mr Cooper overthrows Jezza and becomes leader.
    1. A miracle.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    Mr. Owls, I wouldn't stress. The time to worry is when an administrative error accidentally leads to Jeremy Clarkson becoming leader of the Labour Party.

    Wow thanks for the perspective. Hope Louise Mensch hasn't fooled me with an Alias
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082

    rcs1000 said:

    Can we have a moratorium on the phrase "virtue signalling" please?

    Come on, it's pretty useful in the tedious wanker signalling stakes.
    Hah yep, imagine the seventh circle of hell inhabited by those whose social circle is smart-alec spectator and blairite journalists and their ilk.
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    Mr. Jessop, interesting definition, though.

    Crime intending to affect those known or perceived to be Muslim. Not sure that works, as a mugger could opportunistically target a Muslim (wearing a veil, so it's obvious) but do so based not on hating Muslims, just an opportunity presenting itself. But that would count as Islamophobic, whereas he would've just as happily targeted a Jew, atheist, or Pastafarian.

    Yep, there are problems with such definitions. But the trends appears worrying, assuming it's not just more reporting.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015
    JEO said:

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/migrant-crisis-pakistanis-others-dumping-ids-to-become-syrian-20150906-gjggcn.html

    Migrant crisis: Pakistanis, others dumping IDs to become 'Syrian'

    Documents scattered only metres from Serbia's border with Hungary provide evidence that many of the migrants flooding Europe to escape war or poverty are scrapping their true nationalities and likely assuming new ones, just as they enter the European Union.

    Many of those migrants believe that using a fake document – or having none at all – gives them a better chance of receiving asylum in Germany and other western European states. That's because the surest route to asylum is to be a refugee from war and not an economic migrant fleeing poverty. That fact has led to a huge influx of people claiming to be Syrian.


    'Je Suis Syrian'.

    Merkel is such a fool. She offered places to 800,000. Will 8 million or 80 million now head for Germany?

    The worst thing, is that those in genuine need of help as refugees will lose out to economic migrants.
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    Mr. Jessop, be worth knowing general crime stats for London too. If both anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim crime is increasing [dodgy definitions being noted], it could just be a reflection of more crime.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    With Corbyn as leader Labour faces a landslide defeat in 2020. It matters hardly at all whether 'mainstreamers' join the shadow cabinet or not.

    The PLP has one advantage - a single roll of the dice to trigger a leadership challenge. How and when they roll that dice will be of decisive significance: it will determine whether Corbyn is ousted or confirmed as leader.

    IMO mainstreamers should decline any appointment from Corbyn. If they accept appointments then they will become tainted by association and will owe a duty of 'loyalty'. To avoid catastrophe Labour will need to be rid of Corbyn, its as simple as that.
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    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    I see the BBC are using figures from Tell Mama. Weren't they the outfit who were discredited for basically making their stats up?

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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    I'm still waiting for someone to ask the Prime Minister about how he will protect the UK when these people get EU passports and vast numbers come straight to the UK. After all, the UK is the most desired country in the EU to move to:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2015

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    One can almost wonder if Merkel has taken out dual citizenship and become one half Syrian. The horrible truth is that Merkel has overstepped herself and doesn't know how to get out of this mess of her own creation, without appearing a complete wally.
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    Mr. JEO, and that's just one more reason Merkel's approach is despicable.

    Still, if there are massive communities established in Germany, more may stay there.

    Miss Jones, maybe it's because I'm not a Londoner, but I don't think I've heard of them before. A charity making stuff up is not shocking, though.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Morris_Dancer,

    Indeed. The vast majority of the migrants that reach Europe are aggressive young men, many of them highly willing to bribe officials, storm barricades, throw rocks at police officers and break into trains. It is hardly surprising that many will be willing to fake documents, given a Syrian passport guarantees a new life in Germany - and longer term, wherever in the EU they wish to live.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,285
    JEO said:

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    I'm still waiting for someone to ask the Prime Minister about how he will protect the UK when these people get EU passports and vast numbers come straight to the UK. After all, the UK is the most desired country in the EU to move to:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx
    It's incredibly difficult to get a German passport, probably the hardest of all the European countries. There are millions of Turks in Germany - many who have been there a decade or more, or been there - that are still ineligible.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,875
    TSE said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the scene from The Pink Panther Strikes Again when several assassins are after Inspector Clouseau. Like Clouseau, Corbyn should survive, as all the assasins manage to do is wipe each other out whilst leaving their target safe

    Just had to bow to this one from the previous thread.
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    Ma Merkel will always look like a complete wally....and it will be the Germans who will constantly remind her...
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    MikeK said:

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    One can almost wonder if Merkel has taken out dual citizenship and become one half Syrian. The horrible truth is that Merkel has overstepped herself and doesn't know how to get out of this mess of her own creation, without appearing a complete wally.
    She could always backtrack, close Germany's borders and dump those already in Europe and the tens of millions heading her way into everyone else's lap.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited September 2015

    Mr. JEO, and that's just one more reason Merkel's approach is despicable.

    Still, if there are massive communities established in Germany, more may stay there.

    Miss Jones, maybe it's because I'm not a Londoner, but I don't think I've heard of them before. A charity making stuff up is not shocking, though.

    Here you go (from 2013):


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/andrew-gilligan/10108098/Muslim-hate-monitor-to-lose-backing.html

    "A controversial project claiming to measure anti-Muslim attacks will not have its government grant renewed after police and civil servants raised concerns about its methods.

    The project, called Tell Mama, claimed that there had been a “sustained wave of attacks and intimidation” against British Muslims after the killing of Drummer Lee Rigby, with 193 “Islamophobic incidents” reported to it, rising to 212 by last weekend."

    The group’s founder, Fiyaz Mughal, said he saw “no end to this cycle of violence”, describing it as “unprecedented”. The claims were unquestioningly repeated in the media.

    Tell Mama and Mr Mughal did not mention, however, that 57 per cent of the 212 reports referred to activity that took place only online, mainly offensive postings on Twitter and Facebook, or that a further 16 per cent of the 212 reports had not been verified. Not all the online abuse even originated in Britain."





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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,285

    Mr. Jessop, be worth knowing general crime stats for London too. If both anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim crime is increasing [dodgy definitions being noted], it could just be a reflection of more crime.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/year-ending-march-2015/index.html

    Assaults up.
    Thefts down.

    Basically: property related crime is falling, but you are more likely to get punched or stabbed...
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    Getting a German passport is extremely hard, isn't it?

    I still think we have a great opportunity to cherry pick Syrian refugees that could be of huge benefit to this country. It's an opportunity. The government's figure of 15,000 looks about right to me.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    I see the BBC report on the Muslim figures only. Can't imagine why.
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    Mr. 1000, interesting to know. But will those in Germany simply wander elsewhere to get their passports?
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    LucyJones said:

    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    I see the BBC are using figures from Tell Mama. Weren't they the outfit who were discredited for basically making their stats up?

    The first line says they are Met figures. They then go on to report the claims made by Tell mama that most of the victims of the Met-documented rise are women.

    I really don't get the veil thing. I lived in Birmingham in the early 80s as a student in an area (Sparkbrook) that must have been 80% Pakistani. No-one wore a veil back then.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    edited September 2015
    Miss Jones, thanks :)

    So, it's a crock of shit. I do wonder how much of 'crime' is just people being tossers online [or people being over-sensitive online].

    Mr. 1000, cheers for the crime stats.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Observer, I also don't get the veil.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,258
    edited September 2015

    Mr. Jessop, be worth knowing general crime stats for London too. If both anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim crime is increasing [dodgy definitions being noted], it could just be a reflection of more crime.

    Yep, and I accept the point made by other posters that it's from a low base and that the source might be dodgy.

    It's also a question of perception: if people think such crime is rising, then the relevant groups are going to be more concerned about it.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Francois Hollande says France will accept 24,000 refugees under European Commission's plan & crisis "can and will" be brought under control
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    felix said:

    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    I see the BBC report on the Muslim figures only. Can't imagine why.
    ;)
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Getting a German passport is extremely hard, isn't it?

    I still think we have a great opportunity to cherry pick Syrian refugees that could be of huge benefit to this country. It's an opportunity. The government's figure of 15,000 looks about right to me.

    One would want to screen out undesirables. But, I'm not sure it would be right only to take the best.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    I'm still waiting for someone to ask the Prime Minister about how he will protect the UK when these people get EU passports and vast numbers come straight to the UK. After all, the UK is the most desired country in the EU to move to:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx
    It's incredibly difficult to get a German passport, probably the hardest of all the European countries. There are millions of Turks in Germany - many who have been there a decade or more, or been there - that are still ineligible.
    This largely changed for asylum seekers in 1999. You now can get it with the conditions listed here:

    http://www.bamf.de/EN/Einbuergerung/InDeutschland/indeutschland-node.html

    A lot of Turks in Germany don't bother as they want to keep their Turkish passport, as they already have permanent German residency. But if you're a Syrian seeking life in the UK, I don't think revoking your Syrian citizenship will hold you back.

    Doubly so if you're a Pakistani with a fake Syrian passport.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400



    I still think we have a great opportunity to cherry pick Syrian refugees that could be of huge benefit to this country. It's an opportunity.


    Surely Syria needs all its skilled citizens to help rebuild?

    We seem to have a strange situation where skilled citizens of third world countries are trained up at enormous expense, before emigrating to the West. This then leaves a hole in the basic functioning of their nations infrastructure, which is then filled by some Westerner on their gap year.

    Surely this isn't a sustainable way to develop civil society in those countries that need it?
  • Options
    felix said:

    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    I see the BBC report on the Muslim figures only. Can't imagine why.

    They did report the rise in anti-Semitic crime:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33713259

  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Francois Hollande says France will accept 24,000 refugees under European Commission's plan & crisis "can and will" be brought under control

    Another hopeless dreamer. Europe, and the EU's politicians really are quite useless.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,285

    Mr. 1000, interesting to know. But will those in Germany simply wander elsewhere to get their passports?

    They won't be able to leave Schengen without a passport. So, they could go to France or Spain or Switzerland, but not the UK.

    They could probably throw away their German ID card, and claim asylum again in - say - Belgium if they wanted to. But, I'd guess that the Germans will use the Syrians as they have done the Turks, as low cost labour. And I'm guessing that will still be quite attractive to most Syrians (and other refugees).

    We should definitely be grateful they chose Germany over other countries (like Belgium) where as little as three year's residence can be sufficient to get a passport.
  • Options
    JonathanD said:



    I still think we have a great opportunity to cherry pick Syrian refugees that could be of huge benefit to this country. It's an opportunity.


    Surely Syria needs all its skilled citizens to help rebuild?

    We seem to have a strange situation where skilled citizens of third world countries are trained up at enormous expense, before emigrating to the West. This then leaves a hole in the basic functioning of their nations infrastructure, which is then filled by some Westerner on their gap year.

    Surely this isn't a sustainable way to develop civil society in those countries that need it?

    Syria does not exist as a functioning country. These people will end up somewhere. Why not here?

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,285
    JonathanD said:



    I still think we have a great opportunity to cherry pick Syrian refugees that could be of huge benefit to this country. It's an opportunity.


    Surely Syria needs all its skilled citizens to help rebuild?

    We seem to have a strange situation where skilled citizens of third world countries are trained up at enormous expense, before emigrating to the West. This then leaves a hole in the basic functioning of their nations infrastructure, which is then filled by some Westerner on their gap year.

    Surely this isn't a sustainable way to develop civil society in those countries that need it?
    Isn't that how it works in the UK too? We train doctors and then they head off to the US or Canada or Australia to earn more money.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,285
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    I'm still waiting for someone to ask the Prime Minister about how he will protect the UK when these people get EU passports and vast numbers come straight to the UK. After all, the UK is the most desired country in the EU to move to:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx
    It's incredibly difficult to get a German passport, probably the hardest of all the European countries. There are millions of Turks in Germany - many who have been there a decade or more, or been there - that are still ineligible.
    This largely changed for asylum seekers in 1999. You now can get it with the conditions listed here:

    http://www.bamf.de/EN/Einbuergerung/InDeutschland/indeutschland-node.html

    A lot of Turks in Germany don't bother as they want to keep their Turkish passport, as they already have permanent German residency. But if you're a Syrian seeking life in the UK, I don't think revoking your Syrian citizenship will hold you back.

    Doubly so if you're a Pakistani with a fake Syrian passport.
    That still requires eight years of paying taxes!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCBreaking: France to begin preparations for air strikes on Islamic State militants in Syria, President Hollande says http://t.co/CKbBeLE6oL
  • Options
    JonathanD said:



    I still think we have a great opportunity to cherry pick Syrian refugees that could be of huge benefit to this country. It's an opportunity.


    Surely Syria needs all its skilled citizens to help rebuild?

    We seem to have a strange situation where skilled citizens of third world countries are trained up at enormous expense, before emigrating to the West. This then leaves a hole in the basic functioning of their nations infrastructure, which is then filled by some Westerner on their gap year.

    Surely this isn't a sustainable way to develop civil society in those countries that need it?
    Indeed, but there's other sides to this as well. Many immigrants send remittances home: well-paid immigrants would be able to send more. They will also keep their current skills fresh, and learn more skills, ready to be used when they get home. Also note that many would not currently have a 'home' to return to in safety, and will not for as long as the war goes on.

    And that needs to be a focus: getting a stable country that they can return to. Sadly, as yesterday's (at times rather nasty) discussion on here showed, that's easier said than done.

    As for your second paragraph: it should be noted that this skills drain happens in other directions as well, for instance in medicine we could fill the place of a 'third world country' who trains up doctors who then just emigrate to Australia. ;)
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2015
    It looks like chaos in the processing camp in Berlin..I wonder when we will see the first riot..The Germans are quite good at handling large groups of people usually.. I wonder why they were not prepared this time..
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Moses_ said:

    A few moments ago A new thread appeared and then just as quickly disappeared .....?

    Like Corby?

    Has Corby disappeared? I would have thought a large town going missing would have been on the news ... ;)
    Shite I think I may have given a Northamtonshire Town my 1st Preference
    Corby Will Never Be A First Preference Northamptonshire Town

  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    So the BBC just reports unquestioningly the claims of this organisation, despite the fact its dodgy stats had previously been exposed and government funding had been withdrawn for these reasons?

    Why am I not surprised?

    I don't know how anyone can look at this sort of example and claim the BBC is not biased.
  • Options
    JEO said:

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/migrant-crisis-pakistanis-others-dumping-ids-to-become-syrian-20150906-gjggcn.html

    Migrant crisis: Pakistanis, others dumping IDs to become 'Syrian'

    Documents scattered only metres from Serbia's border with Hungary provide evidence that many of the migrants flooding Europe to escape war or poverty are scrapping their true nationalities and likely assuming new ones, just as they enter the European Union.

    Many of those migrants believe that using a fake document – or having none at all – gives them a better chance of receiving asylum in Germany and other western European states. That's because the surest route to asylum is to be a refugee from war and not an economic migrant fleeing poverty. That fact has led to a huge influx of people claiming to be Syrian.


    Every "Syrian" refugee without documentation should be interviewed. Preferably by someone who is also Syrian.

    If they have no documentation the onus should be on them to explain why and prove they are Syrian.

    I would be particularly suspicious of healthy young men who are full of beans.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    I'm still waiting for someone to ask the Prime Minister about how he will protect the UK when these people get EU passports and vast numbers come straight to the UK. After all, the UK is the most desired country in the EU to move to:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx
    It's incredibly difficult to get a German passport, probably the hardest of all the European countries. There are millions of Turks in Germany - many who have been there a decade or more, or been there - that are still ineligible.
    This largely changed for asylum seekers in 1999. You now can get it with the conditions listed here:

    http://www.bamf.de/EN/Einbuergerung/InDeutschland/indeutschland-node.html

    A lot of Turks in Germany don't bother as they want to keep their Turkish passport, as they already have permanent German residency. But if you're a Syrian seeking life in the UK, I don't think revoking your Syrian citizenship will hold you back.

    Doubly so if you're a Pakistani with a fake Syrian passport.
    That still requires eight years of paying taxes!
    That didn't stop the Somali refugees in the Netherlands, of whom a third to a half moved to the UK once they got Dutch passports.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?
  • Options
    JEO said:

    So the BBC just reports unquestioningly the claims of this organisation, despite the fact its dodgy stats had previously been exposed and government funding had been withdrawn for these reasons?

    Why am I not surprised?

    I don't know how anyone can look at this sort of example and claim the BBC is not biased.

    They report figures from all kinds of dubious sources:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33603993

    http://www.adamsmith.org/research/think-pieces/why-migrationwatch-is-wrong-about-immigration-and-unemployment/

    http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2014/03/13/factcheck-do-immigrants-really-cost-britain-22-million-a-day



  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255

    Mr. Jessop, be worth knowing general crime stats for London too. If both anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim crime is increasing [dodgy definitions being noted], it could just be a reflection of more crime.

    I think there is a lot of selective use of statistics in this area. The attached article - which has an agenda so treat with caution - does reference some ACPO statistics for a number of years, which may be of assistance.

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/05/15/british-jews-far-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-hate-crime-than-muslims/

  • Options
    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Merkel likes men, so they say. Now she has more than she bargained for:

    file:///Users/tycherin/Desktop/COPO_R5WUAAZaBV.jpg
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34168528

    Shasli looks happy as he sits in the pale sunshine at a children's home near Ashford in Kent. He's been here eight weeks now, and has made lots of friends.

    But ask the 16-year-old from Sudan how he got here, and why he came, and his face darkens.
    "It was a very difficult journey. Every time I remember the journey and what I have been through, I get very sad and very upset."

    Shasli is one of 99 teenagers currently living at the Millbank Centre near Ashford...................

    But why was he so determined to come to the UK?

    The UK is the home of PB.

    There will come a time when Bedford and Auchentennach will become shrines and the masses will flock there in utter wonder.

  • Options
    JEO said:

    So the BBC just reports unquestioningly the claims of this organisation, despite the fact its dodgy stats had previously been exposed and government funding had been withdrawn for these reasons?

    Why am I not surprised?

    I don't know how anyone can look at this sort of example and claim the BBC is not biased.

    The BBC has been an absolute disgrace on this issue. I can only assume they don't care what this government does to them anymore.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2015
    y
  • Options
    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JEO said:

    Mr. JEO, it's a bit 'No shit, Sherlock', isn't it?

    Almost as if Merkel's policy is monumentally stupid.

    I'm still waiting for someone to ask the Prime Minister about how he will protect the UK when these people get EU passports and vast numbers come straight to the UK. After all, the UK is the most desired country in the EU to move to:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/153992/150-million-adults-worldwide-migrate.aspx
    It's incredibly difficult to get a German passport, probably the hardest of all the European countries. There are millions of Turks in Germany - many who have been there a decade or more, or been there - that are still ineligible.
    This largely changed for asylum seekers in 1999. You now can get it with the conditions listed here:

    http://www.bamf.de/EN/Einbuergerung/InDeutschland/indeutschland-node.html

    A lot of Turks in Germany don't bother as they want to keep their Turkish passport, as they already have permanent German residency. But if you're a Syrian seeking life in the UK, I don't think revoking your Syrian citizenship will hold you back.

    Doubly so if you're a Pakistani with a fake Syrian passport.
    That still requires eight years of paying taxes!
    That didn't stop the Somali refugees in the Netherlands, of whom a third to a half moved to the UK once they got Dutch passports.
    If someone has spent eight years paying steady taxes, without a criminal record, with steady employment and knowledge of the German language (all are requirements) then there will be both less incentive to uproot and move to another country since they will be settled down - and if they do by then they won't be impoverished and possibly unskilled Syrians. They'd be moving over as someone who has shown they can work steadily and not commit a crime and learn the local language for nearly a decade.
  • Options

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    edited September 2015

    LucyJones said:

    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    I see the BBC are using figures from Tell Mama. Weren't they the outfit who were discredited for basically making their stats up?

    The first line says they are Met figures. They then go on to report the claims made by Tell mama that most of the victims of the Met-documented rise are women.

    I really don't get the veil thing. I lived in Birmingham in the early 80s as a student in an area (Sparkbrook) that must have been 80% Pakistani. No-one wore a veil back then.

    The increase in the use of the veil is linked to the increase in the spread of the Saudi-inspired and funded view of Islam.

  • Options

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
    That is precisely my point: they must be differentiated from those fraudulently posing as such to obtain settlement rights in the EU.
  • Options
    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    If someone has spent eight years paying steady taxes, without a criminal record, with steady employment and knowledge of the German language (all are requirements) then there will be both less incentive to uproot and move to another country since they will be settled down - and if they do by then they won't be impoverished and possibly unskilled Syrians. They'd be moving over as someone who has shown they can work steadily and not commit a crime and learn the local language for nearly a decade.

    You can speculate all you want. We have a previous example of asylum seekers from the broader Middle East settling in a similar country: the Somalis going to the Netherlands. Here, 20,000 - about 40% of the total - moved to the UK once they got EU passports. And the performance of Somalis in the UK has not been the model of integration you think will happen: only 30% work, 70% are on benefits, 50% are in council housing and only 30% of their kids get five GCSE passes.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cyclefree said:

    LucyJones said:

    Islamophobic crime in London 'up by 70%'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34138127

    and

    Anti-semitic hate crimes in London more the double in one year

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-in-london-more-the-double-in-one-year-10425829.html

    There may be troubles ahead ...

    I see the BBC are using figures from Tell Mama. Weren't they the outfit who were discredited for basically making their stats up?

    The first line says they are Met figures. They then go on to report the claims made by Tell mama that most of the victims of the Met-documented rise are women.

    I really don't get the veil thing. I lived in Birmingham in the early 80s as a student in an area (Sparkbrook) that must have been 80% Pakistani. No-one wore a veil back then.

    The increase in the use of the veil is linked to the increase in the spread of theSaudi-inspired and funded view of Islam.

    The Saudi are a cunning lot.

    To think for centuries they've inspired virtuous veiled British women to walk down the aisle just prior to marriage.

  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2015


    ..On this subject, is anyone doing a decent biog of Miliband? In fact, a better one might be of both Milibands, now their front-rank careers are over.

    Titled Cain and Abel or East of Eden?
  • Options

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
    That is precisely my point: they must be differentiated from those fraudulently posing as such to obtain settlement rights in the EU.
    I agree, best way of doing that is not Germany's "come one and all but make your own way to us in a dangerous journey" so-called generous policy, but rather Britain's "we'll meet you at the camps and sort it out there and bring you over safely if you can come."

    Germany should be doing what we're doing.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
    That is precisely my point: they must be differentiated from those fraudulently posing as such to obtain settlement rights in the EU.
    On the Today programme this morning, they interviewed a woman who said that she was with her husband who had a job in Istanbul but they were in Germany because the husband had to work too hard (12 hours per day) and they wanted to continue their studies instead.

    Now - a couple like this are not refugees in any sense of the word. And allowing them into the country in preference to those who are genuinely in fear of persecution or being killed is disgraceful precisely because those who do need such refuge are being left behind in favour of those who are, bluntly, cheating and better able to push themselves to the front of the queue.

    There is nothing fair or compassionate about such a policy.

    Europe is being taken for a fool by such people.

    While I can understand why SO wants to provide places to skilled Syrians, I think the priority should be to give refuge to those who need our help the most - and in the current state of the Middle East that means, to my mind, Syrian Christians, Yazidis, orphans.
  • Options

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
    But is it even as simple as that? Even if people are proven to be Syrian, how do we know what they were doing there? Who are the victims of war and terror and who are the perpetrators of such?

  • Options
    JEO said:

    If someone has spent eight years paying steady taxes, without a criminal record, with steady employment and knowledge of the German language (all are requirements) then there will be both less incentive to uproot and move to another country since they will be settled down - and if they do by then they won't be impoverished and possibly unskilled Syrians. They'd be moving over as someone who has shown they can work steadily and not commit a crime and learn the local language for nearly a decade.

    You can speculate all you want. We have a previous example of asylum seekers from the broader Middle East settling in a similar country: the Somalis going to the Netherlands. Here, 20,000 - about 40% of the total - moved to the UK once they got EU passports. And the performance of Somalis in the UK has not been the model of integration you think will happen: only 30% work, 70% are on benefits, 50% are in council housing and only 30% of their kids get five GCSE passes.
    You can point to all the negative cherrypicked examples you want, but we also have examples that migrants are a net positive to the UK overall. Furthermore the Germans require 8 years not the Dutch 5.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :+1:

    JEO said:

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/migrant-crisis-pakistanis-others-dumping-ids-to-become-syrian-20150906-gjggcn.html

    Migrant crisis: Pakistanis, others dumping IDs to become 'Syrian'

    Documents scattered only metres from Serbia's border with Hungary provide evidence that many of the migrants flooding Europe to escape war or poverty are scrapping their true nationalities and likely assuming new ones, just as they enter the European Union.

    Many of those migrants believe that using a fake document – or having none at all – gives them a better chance of receiving asylum in Germany and other western European states. That's because the surest route to asylum is to be a refugee from war and not an economic migrant fleeing poverty. That fact has led to a huge influx of people claiming to be Syrian.


    Every "Syrian" refugee without documentation should be interviewed. Preferably by someone who is also Syrian.

    If they have no documentation the onus should be on them to explain why and prove they are Syrian.

    I would be particularly suspicious of healthy young men who are full of beans.
  • Options

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
    That is precisely my point: they must be differentiated from those fraudulently posing as such to obtain settlement rights in the EU.
    I agree, best way of doing that is not Germany's "come one and all but make your own way to us in a dangerous journey" so-called generous policy, but rather Britain's "we'll meet you at the camps and sort it out there and bring you over safely if you can come."

    Germany should be doing what we're doing.
    For once, on the matter of migration, we agree.
  • Options
    LucyJones said:

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
    But is it even as simple as that? Even if people are proven to be Syrian, how do we know what they were doing there? Who are the victims of war and terror and who are the perpetrators of such?

    I suppose the same way we know who the native born criminals are. With good law enforcement and intelligence. If something bad happens we deal with it but we try with intelligence to prevent it same as we always have.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Serbian border police say that 90 percent of those arriving from Macedonia, some 3,000 a day, claim they are Syrian, although they have no documents to prove it. The so-called Balkan corridor for the migrant flight starts in Turkey, then goes through Macedonia and Serbia before entering the European Union in Hungary.

    “You can see that something is fishy when most of those who cross into Serbia enter January first as the date of their birth,” said border police officer Miroslav Jovic. “Guess that’s the first date that comes to their mind.”

    http://www.centredaily.com/2015/09/06/4907877_migrants-in-the-balkans-everyone.html
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    Cyclefree said:

    JEO said:

    Casino_Royale,

    The whole reason Germany took all Syrians in without question is that they do not have the capacity to do rigorous checks for large numbers of asylum seekers. And even if they do turn them down, do you seriously expect Hungary, Italy etc to take them back?

    They should be detained and then flown back to MENA or their country of origin. Deals should be done with these governments to accept back citizens that have illegally emigrated.

    Of course, that's quite a separate question as to whether Germany has the balls to do it.
    If they're from Syria then they are genuine refugees their country of origin is not an option.
    That is precisely my point: they must be differentiated from those fraudulently posing as such to obtain settlement rights in the EU.
    On the Today programme this morning, they interviewed a woman who said that she was with her husband who had a job in Istanbul but they were in Germany because the husband had to work too hard (12 hours per day) and they wanted to continue their studies instead.

    Now - a couple like this are not refugees in any sense of the word. And allowing them into the country in preference to those who are genuinely in fear of persecution or being killed is disgraceful precisely because those who do need such refuge are being left behind in favour of those who are, bluntly, cheating and better able to push themselves to the front of the queue.

    There is nothing fair or compassionate about such a policy.

    Europe is being taken for a fool by such people.

    While I can understand why SO wants to provide places to skilled Syrians, I think the priority should be to give refuge to those who need our help the most - and in the current state of the Middle East that means, to my mind, Syrian Christians, Yazidis, orphans.
    Yes, but it's making the Germans feel better. Welcoming everyone who physically walks over the border into their country is powerfully symbolic for them.

    The editor of Bild basically admitted as such in an article for the ST over the weekend as it wipes off the stain and atones for what Germany did to others during WWII.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    JEO said:

    If someone has spent eight years paying steady taxes, without a criminal record, with steady employment and knowledge of the German language (all are requirements) then there will be both less incentive to uproot and move to another country since they will be settled down - and if they do by then they won't be impoverished and possibly unskilled Syrians. They'd be moving over as someone who has shown they can work steadily and not commit a crime and learn the local language for nearly a decade.

    You can speculate all you want. We have a previous example of asylum seekers from the broader Middle East settling in a similar country: the Somalis going to the Netherlands. Here, 20,000 - about 40% of the total - moved to the UK once they got EU passports. And the performance of Somalis in the UK has not been the model of integration you think will happen: only 30% work, 70% are on benefits, 50% are in council housing and only 30% of their kids get five GCSE passes.
    You can point to all the negative cherrypicked examples you want, but we also have examples that migrants are a net positive to the UK overall. Furthermore the Germans require 8 years not the Dutch 5.
    "If we ignore immigrants with similar characteristics to the ones we are actually talking about, and instead hide them in an average with various different types of migrants, then it doesn't look so bad!"

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    Cyclefree does your example of those most in need extend to the Kurds? A group of people persecuted not just by the Syrians but frankly for their own reasons treated with contempt by "safe" Turkey they are retreating to too.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2015
    JEO said:

    JEO said:

    If someone has spent eight years paying steady taxes, without a criminal record, with steady employment and knowledge of the German language (all are requirements) then there will be both less incentive to uproot and move to another country since they will be settled down - and if they do by then they won't be impoverished and possibly unskilled Syrians. They'd be moving over as someone who has shown they can work steadily and not commit a crime and learn the local language for nearly a decade.

    You can speculate all you want. We have a previous example of asylum seekers from the broader Middle East settling in a similar country: the Somalis going to the Netherlands. Here, 20,000 - about 40% of the total - moved to the UK once they got EU passports. And the performance of Somalis in the UK has not been the model of integration you think will happen: only 30% work, 70% are on benefits, 50% are in council housing and only 30% of their kids get five GCSE passes.
    You can point to all the negative cherrypicked examples you want, but we also have examples that migrants are a net positive to the UK overall. Furthermore the Germans require 8 years not the Dutch 5.
    "If we ignore immigrants with similar characteristics to the ones we are actually talking about, and instead hide them in an average with various different types of migrants, then it doesn't look so bad!"

    How is 5 years in the Netherlands the same as 8 years in Germany? And no Somalians are not the only comparison we can make to Syrians.

    Also I'm curious about intellectual integrity of your statistics. Is that 30% of all of Somalian origin who live in the UK who work? Or 30% of those who came from the Netherlands after 5 years who work? The two are not the same thing.

    EDIT: Afterall as we've shown Germany only grants citizenship to those who are steadily working, not those who are not. If the Netherlands is the same then assuming 70% there don't work they won't get citizenship and so can't come to the UK. If they're not the same, then its not the same. Either way it looks like a lazy and intellectually false comparison
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    What planet is Yvette Cooper on. Last week she said we should take 10,000 refugees and this morning she has upped that to 50,000. What a dreadful and cynical approach to do it because it is likely that the Govt will far exceed her original number of refugees .It also runs way beyond what the opinion polls say would be acceptable to the great majority of the British public.
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    Actually to be fair to Yvette peterbuss she refused to clarify what she meant by 10,000. Was it in a day, this month, a year or over the total span of this crisis? We don't know. She refused to say even when asked to clarify.

    So she was consistently an opportunistic little s**t and not just today.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015


    How is 5 years in the Netherlands the same as 8 years in Germany? And no Somalians are not the only comparison we can make to Syrians.

    Also I'm curious about intellectual integrity of your statistics. Is that 30% of all of Somalian origin who live in the UK who work? Or 30% of those who came from the Netherlands after 5 years who work? The two are not the same thing.

    EDIT: Afterall as we've shown Germany only grants citizenship to those who are steadily working, not those who are not. If the Netherlands is the same then assuming 70% there don't work they won't get citizenship and so can't come to the UK. If they're not the same, then its not the same. Either way it looks like a lazy and intellectually false comparison

    If large numbers (up to half) have not put down solid roots after five years, then large numbers will not do so after just three more. Even if the rate halves relative because of the extra three years relative to the Somali case, then around 25% will come here. Those are huge numbers.

    As for "lazy and intellectually false" comparisons, unsurprisingly data is not released on the precise cross-cutting categories you require. I am basing my opinions on the best data that is available. You are basing your opinions on entirely hypothesised differences, without any data to back you your assumptions.

    EDIT: It also shows your inconsistency that you complain "Somalis in the UK" are a bad proxy for "Somalis in the UK that came via the Netherlands", but previously claimed "all immigrants" was a reasonable proxy for "Syrians/faux-Syrians in Germany that will come to the UK".
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2015
    JEO said:


    How is 5 years in the Netherlands the same as 8 years in Germany? And no Somalians are not the only comparison we can make to Syrians.

    Also I'm curious about intellectual integrity of your statistics. Is that 30% of all of Somalian origin who live in the UK who work? Or 30% of those who came from the Netherlands after 5 years who work? The two are not the same thing.

    EDIT: Afterall as we've shown Germany only grants citizenship to those who are steadily working, not those who are not. If the Netherlands is the same then assuming 70% there don't work they won't get citizenship and so can't come to the UK. If they're not the same, then its not the same. Either way it looks like a lazy and intellectually false comparison

    If large numbers (up to half) have not put down solid roots after five years, then large numbers will do so after just three more. Even if the rate halves relative because of the extra three years relative to the Somali case, then around 25% will come here. Those are huge numbers.

    As for "lazy and intellectually false" comparisons, unsurprisingly data is not released on the precise cross-cutting categories you require. I am basing my opinions on the best data that is available. You are basing your opinions on entirely hypothesised differences, without any data to back you your assumptions.
    So you are comparing apples with oranges then. If German roots are not put down, German citizenship is not granted. If citizenship is not granted, they can't come over.

    So what it comes down to is that you're complaining about "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics" but what you are doing is "hiding them in an average with very different characteristics". People who come here after spending 8 years in Germany, being granted citizenship only if they have steady employment and knowing the local language etc are not the same as people who come here direct from Somalia. But lets hide them in that group.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125


    ..On this subject, is anyone doing a decent biog of Miliband? In fact, a better one might be of both Milibands, now their front-rank careers are over.

    Titled Cain and Abel or East of Eden?


    Tweedledum and....
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    I know the announcement is on the 12th, but what date does Labour stop accepting votes?

    If some people still haven't received their ballots, one can imagine they may struggle to get their vote in on time.
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    Any non-SNP paying attention to the Carmichael case?
    Dull stuff but his side at one point claiming the Human Rights Act as his freedom of expression...
    Presumably stating that he had a right to tell lies?
    It stinks. In shoring up Carmichael the Lib Dems , as with Rennard, are trying to defend the indefensible.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2015
    On topic: Assuming that Corbyn is announced as the winner on Saturday, Mike is of course right that his survival chances will depend on the size of his mandate. I'm not sure that a win on first prefs is necessary - it just needs to be a clear win.

    Just as important, though, will be whether he is the winner amongst full party members, i.e. whether his victory is dependent on the three-quidders. If he is the winner amongst full party members (which YouGov indicated would be the case), then the justification for immediately plotting against him is going to look threadbare and undemocratic.

    The recipe for maximum intensity of civil war would be a close result overall and if he would not be the winner if only full party members had had a vote.

    Still, even in the most optimistic scenario from Labour's point of view the civil war is going to be bloody and protracted.
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    Mr. Betting, I hadn't heard that defence (mind you, it's no worse than a murderer being allowed to stay here because he can't speak Italian).
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