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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Labour “go to the mattresses” if Corbyn wins?

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  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited September 2015

    Mr. Mark, that said, Devon's a splendid part of England.

    It's an excellent place to hide from people wanting to trouble you on the mobile, for sure.
    Been a git of a summer here though.
    Its just been announced that this has been the coldest summer in 3 years. I wish I could remember what the Met Office long term forecast was for this summer.
    The other point is that it is only 3 years - not 13 or 23, but that once gain after only 3 years we have had a cold summer.
    Still the Met have a new £97 million computer to look forward to.

    PS - We are off to Croyde Bay for the surfing in mid Oct. (Well one of those things was true.) It always seems unseasonably warm when we are there.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705

    Mr. Mark, that said, Devon's a splendid part of England.

    It's an excellent place to hide from people wanting to trouble you on the mobile, for sure.
    Been a git of a summer here though.
    Its just been announced that this has been the coldest summer in 3 years. I wish I could remember what the Met Office long term forecast was for this summer.
    The other point is that it is only 3 years - not 13 or 23, but that once gain after only 3 years we have had a cold summer.
    Still the Met have a new £97 million computer to look forward to.
    Not paid for by the BBC. I wonder if the loss of that income was in the budget......
  • According to the FT:

    During the negotiations on relocating 40,000 refugees earlier this summer, one EU diplomat said British officials joked that they would take zero people “and double that if they were really pushed”
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited September 2015

    Mr. Mark, that said, Devon's a splendid part of England.

    It's an excellent place to hide from people wanting to trouble you on the mobile, for sure.
    Been a git of a summer here though.
    Its just been announced that this has been the coldest summer in 3 years. I wish I could remember what the Met Office long term forecast was for this summer.
    The other point is that it is only 3 years - not 13 or 23, but that once gain after only 3 years we have had a cold summer.
    Still the Met have a new £97 million computer to look forward to.
    Um, coldest (or whateverest) in 3 years means "not that unusual". Coldest in 23 years would be far more interesting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,824

    DavidL said:

    That is an extremely impressive batting line up Australia have. Unless there is a clatter of wickets they are heading for 350+.

    Good work David. That 7/4 tip of mine is looking grim unless we get a Maxwell special.
    Maxwell is indeed the key. The others score well but 10 overs of him and it will all be over.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,083
    CD13 said:


    I heard the Hungarian President say that this crisis is nothing to do with them because none of the migrants wanted to stay in Hungary (or Slovakia or any of the other less salubrious areas of the EU). They wanted to stay in Germany.

    I suspect he'd be quite pleased to wave them on their way.

    So much for EU unity.

    It's clear that very few of the migrants *wish* to live in an Eastern European country, even if they were granted asylum there.
  • Are the 4 candidates actually doing any constituency work? This election combined with the recess indicates that the role of MP is arguably redundant, nothing changes whether they're at work or not.
  • CD13 said:


    I heard the Hungarian President say that this crisis is nothing to do with them because none of the migrants wanted to stay in Hungary (or Slovakia or any of the other less salubrious areas of the EU). They wanted to stay in Germany.
    I suspect he'd be quite pleased to wave them on their way.
    So much for EU unity.

    But the latest strife seems to be about the train with refugees only going to a camp and not on the Germany.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JEO said:

    MikeK said:

    JEO said:

    MikeK said:


    Thats what you have when you get Germany ruling the roost and Vichy France backing Berlin up. Hitler must be dancing on his own ashes.

    You do not help the eurosceptic cause with these arguments.
    Why???
    Because the current governments of France and Germany are completely unlike the evil Nazi and Vichy regimes that ruled in the 1930s, and the ludicrous comparison distracts attention away from a much more valid and measured criticism of the way these nations dominate the EU.
    Oh quite! I was being facetious. No doubt Hitler would have sent all those migrants to concentration camps or mown them down on the spot.

    However wether by design or artifice. Germany has got where she always wanted to be; at the centre and the head of Europe. Aided and abetted, I might add by all those quisling types that are rather over fond of germanic qualities. Junker typical of the type: by name and nature.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,773
    Wonder if Rashid has booked his spot in the UAE as of today ?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Mr flightpath01,

    "But the latest strife seems to be about the train with refugees only going to a camp and not on the Germany."

    Ja, ze are obeying orders.
  • DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    I tried that Jeremy Corbyn quiz but then it asked me about six TV programmes, none of which I have ever watched. So I gave up.

    I just chose Downton, even though I never watched it either! Still, ended up 96% Corbyn!
    I am genuinely astonished that 2 political geeks have never watched the West Wing. Admittedly it was the only one of the 6 I had watched but still.

    5% Corbyn. Just could not bring myself to say the Gulf war was the right thing to do. Corbyn is not half as good as a broken clock: right about one thing in 30 years!
    Corbyn would never watch television, let alone American television. It's a catch question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,773
    Plato said:

    Bring back term-time holidays: New Lib Dem leader Tim Farron calls for children to miss up to 10 days of school because cost of breaks punishes the poor

    EXCLUSIVE: Lib Dem leader backs 'liberal principle of choice' for parents
    Warns people who work in tourism industry are unable to take breaks
    Michael Gove scrapped rule giving headteachers discretion on holidays
    Families face £60 fines if they take children out of school lessons


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3220875/Bring-term-time-holidays-New-Lib-Dem-leader-Tim-Farron-calls-children-miss-10-days-school-cost-breaks-punishes-poor.html#ixzz3kgdlmFVb
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    Should win the Lib Dems some votes that !
  • MikeK said:

    JEO said:

    MikeK said:

    JEO said:

    MikeK said:


    Thats what you have when you get Germany ruling the roost and Vichy France backing Berlin up. Hitler must be dancing on his own ashes.

    You do not help the eurosceptic cause with these arguments.
    Why???
    Because the current governments of France and Germany are completely unlike the evil Nazi and Vichy regimes that ruled in the 1930s, and the ludicrous comparison distracts attention away from a much more valid and measured criticism of the way these nations dominate the EU.
    Oh quite! I was being facetious. No doubt Hitler would have sent all those migrants to concentration camps or mown them down on the spot.

    However wether by design or artifice. Germany has got where she always wanted to be; at the centre and the head of Europe. Aided and abetted, I might add by all those quisling types that are rather over fond of germanic qualities. Junker typical of the type: by name and nature.
    Bonkers bigotry typical of a kipper.
  • Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.
  • Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be borrowing from the Greeks??

    :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,824
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    That is an extremely impressive batting line up Australia have. Unless there is a clatter of wickets they are heading for 350+.

    Good work David. That 7/4 tip of mine is looking grim unless we get a Maxwell special.
    Maxwell is indeed the key. The others score well but 10 overs of him and it will all be over.
    Yeah, gone. England in with a shout now. Anything less than 290 and I would fancy them to get them.
  • CD13 said:

    Mr flightpath01,
    "But the latest strife seems to be about the train with refugees only going to a camp and not on the Germany."
    Ja, ze are obeying orders.

    Is that meant to be funny?
  • MikeK said:

    Oh, I made a mistook. Golf starts tomorrow for some weird reason. So I'm back.

    And, how can you call golf boring Sunil?

    I was being facetious :)

    I'm sure there are many on here who regard trains as boring!
  • Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be borrowing from the Greeks??

    :lol:
    With say, 800,000 people, even with a budget of €5bn, thats only about €6,250 per person...which doesn't seem to go very far when you consider they will need housing, feeding, healthcare etc etc

    I hope Germany know what they are getting into.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Mr flightpath01,

    Compare that with ...

    At a news conference with the president of the European Parliament, Mr Orban said it was not Hungary's fault that many of the migrants wanted to travel to Germany, describing the migrant crisis as "a German problem".

    That was today.

    Why the sudden change, do you think?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,824

    MikeK said:

    Oh, I made a mistook. Golf starts tomorrow for some weird reason. So I'm back.

    And, how can you call golf boring Sunil?

    I was being facetious :)

    I'm sure there are many on here who regard trains as boring!
    Err...yes. Weird though that might sound (to you).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,083

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
  • Indigo said:

    watford30 said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    People have travelled to Europe from Syria. Therefore, people will be risking their lives coming here no matter what we say. This idea that if we say 'NO' people will stop coming, is futile. We haven't even said 'yes' and yet many refugees are in Europe.

    Hundreds of people used to drown trying to get to Australia. Now that they have introduced their new "tough love" policy and take all refugees to an offshore location to process their applications, care to guess how many people have drowned, in total ? That's right, none.

    Secondly, those involved in immigration and asylum can decide whether they feel there are enough grounds to conclude someone is a genuine refugee. They've been able to do that before, I presume after all - when an economic migrant could have pretended to be a refugee.

    ....
    I also wouldn't be surprised if one of those refugees was a fake and was a ISIS sleeper.
    One? How naive.

    I didn't mean there would only be one literally. Just that I wouldn't be surprised if one was an ISIS sleeper.

    @Indigo I'd hope there would be no terrorist incidents. But if we are so paranoid that's going to happen, then alternative ways need to be thought of to address the crisis.
    I am sure the two ISIS people arrested in Bulgaria earlier today trying to cross the border were just coming to do a spot of sightseeing.
    Paranoid in that a terrorist incident from ISIS in the UK will actually happen (our national security stops these kinds of incidents happening all the time, thankfully). But then in my previous post I did say: I also wouldn't be surprised if one of those refugees was a fake and was a ISIS sleeper.
    What on earth would be the point of that, I'm sure we have plenty of home grown candidates.
  • Are the 4 candidates actually doing any constituency work? This election combined with the recess indicates that the role of MP is arguably redundant, nothing changes whether they're at work or not.

    Maybe they are not. But how far do you want to stretch the notion of constituency work? Government ministers clearly do lots of ministerial things which must get in the way of 'constituency work'.
    MPs are not social workers. I think you draw totally the wrong conclusions.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Mr flightpath01

    "Is that meant to be funny?"

    Have you ever watched Allo Allo?
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Anthony Wells on the phrasing of the EU Referendum question
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9471

    My summary:
    ICM - On the Yes/No wording the result was YES 47%, NO 33%, DK 20%; on the Remain/Leave wording the result was YES 43%, NO 35%, DK 22%.

    ComRes - On the Yes/No wording the result was YES 58%, NO 31%, DK 11%. On the Stay/Leave question the result was STAY 51%, LEAVE 33%, DK 16%.

    YouGov - Using the Yes/No referendum question they have found an average YES lead of 8 points. Using a question asking if people would vote for Britain to remain or stay, they have found an average REMAIN lead of 6 points

    Wells says:
    "The scale of the difference varies between 2 and 9 points and only the ICM poll used the actual question wording. However, the general trend is clear, a remain/leave question seems to produce a smaller pro-EU lead than a yes/no question."
    "A referendum takes place after several weeks campaigning on the pros and cons on each side of the argument and what the implications and consequences of voting Yes or No (or Stay or Leave) might be. I suspect in a referendum, as opposed to an opinion poll, there is very little real difference between Yes/No and Remain/Leave."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,773
    38 degrees has emailed me. No mention of Turkey in the email...
  • DavidL said:

    MikeK said:

    Oh, I made a mistook. Golf starts tomorrow for some weird reason. So I'm back.

    And, how can you call golf boring Sunil?

    I was being facetious :)

    I'm sure there are many on here who regard trains as boring!
    Err...yes. Weird though that might sound (to you).
    Looks like you're not on the right track!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    CD13 said:

    Mr flightpath01,
    "But the latest strife seems to be about the train with refugees only going to a camp and not on the Germany."
    Ja, ze are obeying orders.

    Is that meant to be funny?
    @flightpath01 is always obeying orders @CD13. He is a specimen of the type de la Corbyn.
  • Mr. Disraeli, In still has a strong starting position.

    It'll take a lot for Out to win, I think. Germany and France dictating we take tens of thousands of immigrants could well have a material impact.
  • Just dipped in and another wildly optimistic thread led by Mr Brind. This is up there with the Sion Simon election prediction with the forecast that Corbyn apparently will not result in strife inside Labour... Oh yeah?
    Corbyn is also according to Mr Brind not a certainty for the slot even though I suggest that >90% of all those who are going to vote have already voted....
    Well I hope that Cooper pulls it off having reinvested £20 of my Corbyn Paddy Power profits on Cooper at 14/1. But that is me just being a bit greedy whereas my brain says that Corbyn has it sewn up.
  • Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be borrowing from the Greeks??

    :lol:
    Corbynomics - its easy.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Mr K,

    Better go easy on the poor lad, Jezza isn't the only mardy arse around.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Sean_F said:

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
    I'm sure the Eurozone could vote through using the EFSF if they wanted to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,773
    Wouldn't Germany help more people by plonking down a couple of billion investment at a refugee camp on the border ?
  • MikeK said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr flightpath01,
    "But the latest strife seems to be about the train with refugees only going to a camp and not on the Germany."
    Ja, ze are obeying orders.

    Is that meant to be funny?
    @flightpath01 is always obeying orders @CD13. He is a specimen of the type de la Corbyn.
    If you could speak English instead of Kipperish you might make more sense.
  • MikeK said:

    Oh, I made a mistook. Golf starts tomorrow for some weird reason. So I'm back.

    And, how can you call golf boring Sunil?

    I was being facetious :)

    I'm sure there are many on here who regard trains as boring!
    This is the only type of train that's 'boring':
    http://c8.alamy.com/comp/AGB3XY/channel-tunnel-work-train-collecting-spoil-excavated-by-the-boring-AGB3XY.jpg

    Ah, TBM's: where my interests in tunnelling and railways meet. ;)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2015
    I can't agree with the consensus in this and the previous thread that Cooper now has a better chance than Burnham.

    Maybe my Labour circle is atypical because we're northern, but it's always been between Burnham and Corbyn round here, and if anything that's grown in recent weeks - Andy is thought to have belatedly pulled his finger out and said some vaguely Labourish things (though there's still suspicion about whether he can be trusted to stick to it if he gets the job), while Yvette irked people by saying Corbyn's economics was wrong in principle - most Labour members agree with him in principle even if they have doubts about his electability. I went to see her in person a few weeks ago and, while most listened to her respectfully, there were a few people very angry about some of the things she'd said about Corbyn and her refusal to serve in his shadow cabinet.
  • @JEO is right. You can disagree with Germany's actions without resorting to lazy Nazi comparisons. It's so very outraged-Daily-Mail reader esque.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2015
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/639463821300625408
    Well, there’s the obvious point that you can’t only raise your own turnout. Take, say, Barack Obama’s successful presidential bid in 2008: yes, he increased turnout among young graduates and ethnic minorities, contributing to his victories in traditionally Republican-leaning states like North Carolina and Florida. But he also increased turnout among Republican voters, losing by a bigger margin in Tenessee, Arkansas, Louisana, Oklahoma and West Virginia than John Kerry did in 2004.
  • Mr. 565, are you telling us Cooper's sudden accent hasn't convinced you of her northernicity?
  • JEO said:

    I see the UK has now paid the £1.7 billion that George Osborne pledged to have halved:

    Britain quietly settled its latest altercation over the European Union budget by paying a 1.7 billion-pound ($2.6 billion) bill that Prime Minister David Cameron originally derided as “appalling.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-03/u-k-settles-eu-bill-once-called-appalling-by-cameron

    This on top of giving up treaty change and giving up on a social chapter opt-out. They better get a good renegotiation, otherwise it's just been one surrender after another to Brussels from this government.

    Puts all the posturing in perspective. Not found this story anywhere on the Daily Mail front page strangely enough. One would think they'd be outraged, unless of course they were as given to manufactured strops and quiet climb downs as the Government they support. #DontblamemeIvotedUKIP
  • Just did the Corbyn quiz, got 5% (I assume from my republicanism) and "the only thing you like about Corbyn is that it means the Tories will win again". Bingo!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Minor policy fart from Tim Farron on school holidays, what a statesman, what a visionary. School holidays and peak period demand for travel forces up fares, who'd have noticed the correlation.

    LDs have a long way to climb if this is the best he can do.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2015

    Mr. Mark, that said, Devon's a splendid part of England.

    It's an excellent place to hide from people wanting to trouble you on the mobile, for sure.
    Been a git of a summer here though.
    Its just been announced that this has been the coldest summer in 3 years. I wish I could remember what the Met Office long term forecast was for this summer. .... Still the Met have a new £97 million computer to look forward to.
    " The Met Office has defended its forecast for a hot, dry summer despite some areas looking set to have the most rain since records began. As summer officially came to a close amid extreme downpours on Monday, the forecaster was left facing questions about why it predicted a ‘drier-than-average’ season even though a strong El Nino climate event was expected."
    No wonder the Met Office loves the climate change concept as it can use that excuse of all this unpredictable change to justify why its forecasts are so wrong...
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11835279/Soggy-summer-was-impossible-to-predict-says-Met-Office.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,214
    edited September 2015

    @JEO is right. You can disagree with Germany's actions without resorting to lazy Nazi comparisons. It's so very outraged-Daily-Mail reader esque.

    Not directed at you, but to some on the left:

    You can disagree with Kendall's policies without resorting to Lazy Tory comparisons. It's so very outraged-Guardian reader esque.

    Or comparisons to witches

    ;)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. 565, are you telling us Cooper's sudden accent hasn't convinced you of her northernicity?

    :D
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pulpstar said:

    Wouldn't Germany help more people by plonking down a couple of billion investment at a refugee camp on the border ?

    Oooh!! That would please UNRRA. That Unit of the UN has been living off Palestinian refugee camps since 1948. And they haven't closed down one camp in all those years. I don't think any European country wants permanent refugee camps blighting their borders.
  • Sean_F said:

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
    I think there is an EU fund for such purposes that Germany can draw on.
  • Just an aside: Hannibal's last elephant (which he rode through the Arnus Marshes to evade a consul [forget if it was Flaminius or Sempronius]) was called Surus, which means Syrian.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @:SeanF

    'Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?'

    Definitely,we aren't in the Euro but still had to make a contribution to the Greek bail-out and are not in Schengen but will still be expected to pay.

    Or maybe just limit contributions to countries like Germany & Italy that still don't contribute 0.7% of National income to overseas aid even though they agreed to this 10 years ago ?
  • Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Could be another sign that Merkel is not seeking re-election?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Just an aside: Hannibal's last elephant (which he rode through the Arnus Marshes to evade a consul [forget if it was Flaminius or Sempronius]) was called Surus, which means Syrian.

    This is close to the hebrew Tsurus, which means trouble. :D
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015

    Sean_F said:

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
    I think there is an EU fund for such purposes that Germany can draw on.
    No. When they needed spare cash for the Greek bailout they just took it from the EFSF, even though they had promised not to use that fund for such a purpose. When non-Euro states protested, the Eurozone just voted it through with their majority, and we submitted to avoid a fight we had already lost.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2015
    Financial Times resident socialist hack writes welcoming Corbyn....
    "It is, in fact, possible to envisage policies that are both rational and radical: land-use planning and land taxation, housing, the finance of local government, taxation of inheritance and the structure of taxation — all cry out for reforms." Martin Wolf aka AllPropertyIsTheft
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb2ef186-518c-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/world_uk_politics/feed//product#axzz3kgwq4k9d
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,773
    £10 on England @ 2.44 for me. 234/6 after 42.3 overs is nothing special.
  • Sean_F said:

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
    Sean_F said:

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
    The psychology is interesting. Is this some mass national atonement for WW2?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Could be another sign that Merkel is not seeking re-election?
    Merkel reamed the Greeks a new one in negotiations over the bailout, yet seemingly has no problem finding the cash to fund her largesse in supporting 800,000 plus incomers.
  • Disraeli said:

    Anthony Wells on the phrasing of the EU Referendum question
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9471

    My summary:
    ICM - On the Yes/No wording the result was YES 47%, NO 33%, DK 20%; on the Remain/Leave wording the result was YES 43%, NO 35%, DK 22%.

    ComRes - On the Yes/No wording the result was YES 58%, NO 31%, DK 11%. On the Stay/Leave question the result was STAY 51%, LEAVE 33%, DK 16%.

    YouGov - Using the Yes/No referendum question they have found an average YES lead of 8 points. Using a question asking if people would vote for Britain to remain or stay, they have found an average REMAIN lead of 6 points

    Wells says:
    "The scale of the difference varies between 2 and 9 points and only the ICM poll used the actual question wording. However, the general trend is clear, a remain/leave question seems to produce a smaller pro-EU lead than a yes/no question."
    "A referendum takes place after several weeks campaigning on the pros and cons on each side of the argument and what the implications and consequences of voting Yes or No (or Stay or Leave) might be. I suspect in a referendum, as opposed to an opinion poll, there is very little real difference between Yes/No and Remain/Leave."

    It would be interesting to see fresh polling on this question.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.
  • Icarus said:


    96% here too.

    I also got 96% Corbyn - despite being mildly pro-Royal and strongly anti rail nationalization.

    Looks like it's only possible to score 96% or 5% ???

  • If you live anywhere in the third world and are ambitious, but also poor, why you wouldn't up sticks immediately and do everything in your power to move to Germany, now, I don't know.

    It will be only the onset of Winter that stems the flow. Germany could easily have 2 million on its hands by the Spring.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    'Following his column on the current deluge of migrants now inundating Europe, Srdja Trifkovic received the following note from a contact who has worked many years as an asylum processing officer with the Dutch Ministry of Immigration:

    Dr. Trifkovic points out that none of the countries affected by the current deluge (save perhaps Hungary) exercise what has been a key element of state sovereignty for centuries: control over national borders. Their frontiers have been swamped by people who are for the most part culturally hostile to Europe. European countries are de facto giving up their basic authority to the lawlessness of the invading crowds. Their weakness only stimulates unknown new multitudes to try the same. The invaders present not only a real current threat but a substantial long-term risk, deeply destabilizing or even destructive for the targeted countries.'

    https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/more-on-the-alien-invasion-of-europe/
  • Estobar said:

    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

    Welcome!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,893

    Its just been announced that this has been the coldest summer in 3 years. I wish I could remember what the Met Office long term forecast was for this summer.
    The other point is that it is only 3 years - not 13 or 23, but that once gain after only 3 years we have had a cold summer.

    As is often the case, a generalised comment hides a multitude of truths. It's not been a bad summer for the south-east and London in terms of rainfall and sunshine and July 1st broke several temperature records.

    That said, the romanticised idyll of long summer days of unbroken sunshine hasn't materialised here but go a couple of hundred miles south of Portsmouth (or Torbay) and it's been a very different summer.

    I've not seen the overall numbers yet for France but they have had a long hot summer with all manner of records broken with temperatures getting past 40c (104F in old money) on a number of occasions in the interior. Germany and the Low Countries have also had very hot spells as well.

    A small distance can make a great difference and this confuses the overall debate. To assume because you've had no heat that no one else has is as foolish as assuming that because you're a Conservative, everyone else is.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sean_F said:

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
    Sean_F said:

    Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 11 mins11 minutes ago

    Germany is considering a supplementary budget running into the billions to finance caring for refugees.

    Will they be demanding contributions from other EU states?
    The psychology is interesting. Is this some mass national atonement for WW2?
    Yes, in a word.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Welcome aboard, Mr @Estobar
    Estobar said:

    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

  • dr_spyn said:

    Minor policy fart from Tim Farron on school holidays, what a statesman, what a visionary. School holidays and peak period demand for travel forces up fares, who'd have noticed the correlation.

    LDs have a long way to climb if this is the best he can do.

    They actually managed to elect a leader more sixth-formery than Ed Miliband :lol:
  • Estobar said:

    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

    Welcome to the funny farm :lol:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Estobar said:

    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

    Welcome.
  • Estobar said:

    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

    Good evening Estobar and welcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,102
    philiph said:

    Plato said:

    Bring back term-time holidays: New Lib Dem leader Tim Farron calls for children to miss up to 10 days of school because cost of breaks punishes the poor

    EXCLUSIVE: Lib Dem leader backs 'liberal principle of choice' for parents
    Warns people who work in tourism industry are unable to take breaks
    Michael Gove scrapped rule giving headteachers discretion on holidays
    Families face £60 fines if they take children out of school lessons


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3220875/Bring-term-time-holidays-New-Lib-Dem-leader-Tim-Farron-calls-children-miss-10-days-school-cost-breaks-punishes-poor.html#ixzz3kgdlmFVb
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    Allow more flexibility for 3 or 4 terms, moving holidays / half term lengths etc. Not all schools have to be in attendance at the same time - Easter, Christmas and New Year apart, which takes care of all of 3 or 4 weeks of the year.
    Sounds reasonable.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Estobar said:

    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

    Welcome Mr? Estobar.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,102
    Estobar said:

    Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

    Wait, that's what we're supposed To be doing?!
  • Long summer holidays actually do more to enforce inequality that pretty much anything else. Middle class kids tend to do more over the holidays, other cliched things like that.

    I'd actually suggest a full overhaul of school terms with more, shorter holidays and a bit of freedom for schools to put them where they want. And also longer days, to 5 or 6, but with more 'less-intense' sessions in there. A longer lunch break but with more chance to do sport in that break, for example.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,102
    On topic, I gather the theme is that party loyalty, or rather the appearance of it, is most important.mif Corbyn falls, it will be of his own making, as even if you think precipitating his fall would be good for labour, loyal to the party over the individual, you cannot actually do it as everyone will think you are disloyal to the party not just the leader, even if he is bad.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,893

    Long summer holidays actually do more to enforce inequality that pretty much anything else. Middle class kids tend to do more over the holidays, other cliched things like that.

    I'd actually suggest a full overhaul of school terms with more, shorter holidays and a bit of freedom for schools to put them where they want. And also longer days, to 5 or 6, but with more 'less-intense' sessions in there. A longer lunch break but with more chance to do sport in that break, for example.

    The usual suspects come up with threir usual antipathy toward anything Lib Dem but Tim has come up with at least something to think about.

    If we are moving away from State control of education via Academies and Free Schools, why not let schools decide when to take their holidays rather than have something imposed by local authorities or central Government ?

    Some might argue a quality education doesn't require long periods of attendance - in other words, it's what you do when you're in school not how long you're at school that matters.

    My summer lunch cafe was "invaded" by a commonality of teachers yesterday - twenty of them all talking loudly on their first day back. I was tempted to tell them to settle down and be quiet or I'll put them in detention but that didn't seem wise.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    DT live http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11840822/EU-migrant-crisis-Syrian-refugee-Aylan-Kurdi-who-fled-Kobane-live.html
    17.28

    Despite the tragedy, many Syrian refugees encountered by the Telegraph said they were determined to make the crossing to islands like Kos and Lesbos, writes Nick Squires in Bodrum.

    Smugglers charge around $1,500 for each adult, less for children.

    Amjad, 32, who worked in customer services in Damascus before fleeing the city, had just arrived in the tourist port of Bodrum. Sweating in the heat, he was looking to contact smugglers who could take him by boat to Kos.

    "We know it is dangerous but we have no choice. The war has killed our lives. There are Assad soldiers everywhere. They are gangsters and thieves. We were afraid all the time. The war has gone on for five years. It killed our future. Everything is destroyed."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,426
    philiph said:

    Plato said:

    Bring back term-time holidays: New Lib Dem leader Tim Farron calls for children to miss up to 10 days of school because cost of breaks punishes the poor

    EXCLUSIVE: Lib Dem leader backs 'liberal principle of choice' for parents
    Warns people who work in tourism industry are unable to take breaks
    Michael Gove scrapped rule giving headteachers discretion on holidays
    Families face £60 fines if they take children out of school lessons


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3220875/Bring-term-time-holidays-New-Lib-Dem-leader-Tim-Farron-calls-children-miss-10-days-school-cost-breaks-punishes-poor.html#ixzz3kgdlmFVb
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    Allow more flexibility for 3 or 4 terms, moving holidays / half term lengths etc. Not all schools have to be in attendance at the same time - Easter, Christmas and New Year apart, which takes care of all of 3 or 4 weeks of the year.

    Anyone would think his party lost a load of seats in the tourism hot-spots* of the south-west, where this policy might be quite well received.....

    * well, not exactly hot this summer of course....
  • Plato said:

    DT live http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11840822/EU-migrant-crisis-Syrian-refugee-Aylan-Kurdi-who-fled-Kobane-live.html

    17.28

    Despite the tragedy, many Syrian refugees encountered by the Telegraph said they were determined to make the crossing to islands like Kos and Lesbos, writes Nick Squires in Bodrum.

    Smugglers charge around $1,500 for each adult, less for children.

    Amjad, 32, who worked in customer services in Damascus before fleeing the city, had just arrived in the tourist port of Bodrum. Sweating in the heat, he was looking to contact smugglers who could take him by boat to Kos.

    "We know it is dangerous but we have no choice. The war has killed our lives. There are Assad soldiers everywhere. They are gangsters and thieves. We were afraid all the time. The war has gone on for five years. It killed our future. Everything is destroyed."
    One somewhat wonders why they haven't fled to the sunlit uplands of rebel held territory.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    watford30 said:

    'Following his column on the current deluge of migrants now inundating Europe, Srdja Trifkovic received the following note from a contact who has worked many years as an asylum processing officer with the Dutch Ministry of Immigration:

    Dr. Trifkovic points out that none of the countries affected by the current deluge (save perhaps Hungary) exercise what has been a key element of state sovereignty for centuries: control over national borders. Their frontiers have been swamped by people who are for the most part culturally hostile to Europe. European countries are de facto giving up their basic authority to the lawlessness of the invading crowds. Their weakness only stimulates unknown new multitudes to try the same. The invaders present not only a real current threat but a substantial long-term risk, deeply destabilizing or even destructive for the targeted countries.'

    https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/more-on-the-alien-invasion-of-europe/

    We need to call these people what they are.

    Terrorists.

    Extremely well-organised, fit, determined, desperate and intent on imposing their will on us, by subterfuge, criminality, sheer force of numbers, exploiting our structural and societal weaknesses, appeals to emotion, etc.
  • Long summer holidays actually do more to enforce inequality that pretty much anything else. Middle class kids tend to do more over the holidays, other cliched things like that.

    I'd actually suggest a full overhaul of school terms with more, shorter holidays and a bit of freedom for schools to put them where they want. And also longer days, to 5 or 6, but with more 'less-intense' sessions in there. A longer lunch break but with more chance to do sport in that break, for example.

    Wow - and superman as a teacher I suppose.
  • Estobar said:

    Hello everyone. My first time here. Looking forward to many debates about future of Britain.

    Warm welcome!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Germany says it supports (a) unlimited immigration, and (b) the Schengen Area. Can't they see that those two are incompatible?
  • Plato said:

    DT live http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11840822/EU-migrant-crisis-Syrian-refugee-Aylan-Kurdi-who-fled-Kobane-live.html

    17.28

    Despite the tragedy, many Syrian refugees encountered by the Telegraph said they were determined to make the crossing to islands like Kos and Lesbos, writes Nick Squires in Bodrum.

    Smugglers charge around $1,500 for each adult, less for children.

    Amjad, 32, who worked in customer services in Damascus before fleeing the city, had just arrived in the tourist port of Bodrum. Sweating in the heat, he was looking to contact smugglers who could take him by boat to Kos.

    "We know it is dangerous but we have no choice. The war has killed our lives. There are Assad soldiers everywhere. They are gangsters and thieves. We were afraid all the time. The war has gone on for five years. It killed our future. Everything is destroyed."
    One somewhat wonders why they haven't fled to the sunlit uplands of rebel held territory.


    Risk of gassing by Assad and his sick Russian friends?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    watford30 said:

    'Following his column on the current deluge of migrants now inundating Europe, Srdja Trifkovic received the following note from a contact who has worked many years as an asylum processing officer with the Dutch Ministry of Immigration:

    Dr. Trifkovic points out that none of the countries affected by the current deluge (save perhaps Hungary) exercise what has been a key element of state sovereignty for centuries: control over national borders. Their frontiers have been swamped by people who are for the most part culturally hostile to Europe. European countries are de facto giving up their basic authority to the lawlessness of the invading crowds. Their weakness only stimulates unknown new multitudes to try the same. The invaders present not only a real current threat but a substantial long-term risk, deeply destabilizing or even destructive for the targeted countries.'

    https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/more-on-the-alien-invasion-of-europe/

    We need to call these people what they are.

    Terrorists.

    Extremely well-organised, fit, determined, desperate and intent on imposing their will on us, by subterfuge, criminality, sheer force of numbers, exploiting our structural and societal weaknesses, appeals to emotion, etc.
    I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if this all ended up in a European war.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,884
    Just walked past Martin Freeman, Corbyn's No 1 celebrity backer
  • Wilkommen zum pb.com, Herr Estobar.
  • Plato said:

    DT live http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11840822/EU-migrant-crisis-Syrian-refugee-Aylan-Kurdi-who-fled-Kobane-live.html

    17.28

    Despite the tragedy, many Syrian refugees encountered by the Telegraph said they were determined to make the crossing to islands like Kos and Lesbos, writes Nick Squires in Bodrum.

    Smugglers charge around $1,500 for each adult, less for children.

    Amjad, 32, who worked in customer services in Damascus before fleeing the city, had just arrived in the tourist port of Bodrum. Sweating in the heat, he was looking to contact smugglers who could take him by boat to Kos.

    "We know it is dangerous but we have no choice. The war has killed our lives. There are Assad soldiers everywhere. They are gangsters and thieves. We were afraid all the time. The war has gone on for five years. It killed our future. Everything is destroyed."
    One somewhat wonders why they haven't fled to the sunlit uplands of rebel held territory.
    Risk of gassing by Assad and his sick Russian friends?

    IS are the sick ones!
  • RodCrosby said:

    watford30 said:

    'Following his column on the current deluge of migrants now inundating Europe, Srdja Trifkovic received the following note from a contact who has worked many years as an asylum processing officer with the Dutch Ministry of Immigration:

    Dr. Trifkovic points out that none of the countries affected by the current deluge (save perhaps Hungary) exercise what has been a key element of state sovereignty for centuries: control over national borders. Their frontiers have been swamped by people who are for the most part culturally hostile to Europe. European countries are de facto giving up their basic authority to the lawlessness of the invading crowds. Their weakness only stimulates unknown new multitudes to try the same. The invaders present not only a real current threat but a substantial long-term risk, deeply destabilizing or even destructive for the targeted countries.'

    https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/more-on-the-alien-invasion-of-europe/

    We need to call these people what they are.

    Terrorists.

    Extremely well-organised, fit, determined, desperate and intent on imposing their will on us, by subterfuge, criminality, sheer force of numbers, exploiting our structural and societal weaknesses, appeals to emotion, etc.
    We are storing up very big problems for ourselves in 10-15 years time IMHO. Hundreds of thousands of these men (and they are mainly men) will be moving here on EU passports.
  • HYUFD said:

    Just walked past Martin Freeman, Corbyn's No 1 celebrity backer

    Dick.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Plato said:

    Britain has opted out of UN and EU schemes that could mean accepting tens of thousands more asylum seekers, with the focus on spending aid money in the war torn countries from which people are fleeing.

    Mr Cameron argues that opening the door to more refugees is not the answer to the crisis triggered by tens of thousands of people massing in Greece, Italy and Hungary.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3220724/Tories-break-cover-demand-Cameron-offer-sanctuary-desperate-refugees-European-leaders-struggle-contain-crisis.html#ixzz3kgfItxZ8
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    Miss Plato, I wonder if that falls under the umbrella of QMV.


    I am normally very critical of David Cameron. He is spot on here. Accepting a token number of migrants will not solve the problem. In fact Germany's actions will make the problem worse. Action needs to be taken closer to the source of the problems, whether that be the creation of a refugee camp in a North African country or supporting good rebels (are there any?) in Syria.

    There is a serious risk of millions of migrants arriving in Europe over the coming years. If anyone thinks for a second taking 10,000 or so migrants will make any difference or satisfy the liberal elite they are seriously mistaken.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    RodCrosby said:

    watford30 said:

    'Following his column on the current deluge of migrants now inundating Europe, Srdja Trifkovic received the following note from a contact who has worked many years as an asylum processing officer with the Dutch Ministry of Immigration:

    Dr. Trifkovic points out that none of the countries affected by the current deluge (save perhaps Hungary) exercise what has been a key element of state sovereignty for centuries: control over national borders. Their frontiers have been swamped by people who are for the most part culturally hostile to Europe. European countries are de facto giving up their basic authority to the lawlessness of the invading crowds. Their weakness only stimulates unknown new multitudes to try the same. The invaders present not only a real current threat but a substantial long-term risk, deeply destabilizing or even destructive for the targeted countries.'

    https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/more-on-the-alien-invasion-of-europe/

    We need to call these people what they are.

    Terrorists.

    Extremely well-organised, fit, determined, desperate and intent on imposing their will on us, by subterfuge, criminality, sheer force of numbers, exploiting our structural and societal weaknesses, appeals to emotion, etc.
    We are storing up very big problems for ourselves in 10-15 years time IMHO. Hundreds of thousands of these men (and they are mainly men) will be moving here on EU passports.
    It all goes pear shaped when they find that the streets aren't paved with gold as promised, and disaffection boils over.
  • AS A GRANDMOTHER, I was deeply distressed at seeing those pictures of the drowned boys. Hundreds of children have drowned but why does the MSM only single out certain cases. The only reason The Independent published those pictures, was for maximum coverage. As a consequence, every attention seeking/bandwagon jumping MP and Labour leadership contender has taken to the airwaves.

    Every major charity advertising on SKY has pictures of distressed children. The suffering and abuse of children is becoming a whole new industry in itself. It's appallying.

    I'm sure when David Cameron gets back to his No 10 flat at night and speaks with his wife, he is deeply upset by what he sees. But he has a duty of care to everyone in this country and should not be bullied, or be subject to personal abuse by people who I would suggest have their own personal agenda.

    I hope he keeps his nerve and doesn't give in to this emotional blackmail. You can't govern a country on the basis of a Twitter or social media campaign.
  • Plato said:

    DT live http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11840822/EU-migrant-crisis-Syrian-refugee-Aylan-Kurdi-who-fled-Kobane-live.html

    17.28

    Despite the tragedy, many Syrian refugees encountered by the Telegraph said they were determined to make the crossing to islands like Kos and Lesbos, writes Nick Squires in Bodrum.

    Smugglers charge around $1,500 for each adult, less for children.

    Amjad, 32, who worked in customer services in Damascus before fleeing the city, had just arrived in the tourist port of Bodrum. Sweating in the heat, he was looking to contact smugglers who could take him by boat to Kos.

    "We know it is dangerous but we have no choice. The war has killed our lives. There are Assad soldiers everywhere. They are gangsters and thieves. We were afraid all the time. The war has gone on for five years. It killed our future. Everything is destroyed."
    One somewhat wonders why they haven't fled to the sunlit uplands of rebel held territory.
    Risk of gassing by Assad and his sick Russian friends?
    IS are the sick ones!

    IS are not the only rebels, yet it serves the purposes of some to treat them as such;

    And whilst IS are sick, I'd say the same for Assad and his puppeteers. The scale might be different, but the sickness is there nonetheless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,884

    HYUFD said:

    Just walked past Martin Freeman, Corbyn's No 1 celebrity backer

    Dick.
    Sadly refrained from comment, now having a nose at Legend premiere so may catch a glimpse of Tom Hardy too before I head home
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