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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hills starting taking bets on when we’ll see the likes of t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hills starting taking bets on when we’ll see the likes of this again – LAB winning a majority
AS JEREMY CORBYN’s LAB leader odds are cut to their shortest yet at 2/9 (stake £9 for potential £2 profit) by William Hill, the bookies have also opened a market on when Labour will next achieve an overall majority government – and make between 2026-30 their 5/2 favourite – offering just 3/1 that it will not happen before 2031.
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I don't expect either - one more sadly than the other.
Indeed, if the fixed parliament remains in situ, then we are talking a least a decade (or more).
happy days.
Tony only stood down in June 2007. I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around that.
Writing off 2020 would be a big mistake though. Some comment that it doesn't matter if it makes Labour unelectable, they'll get the chance to vote for an honest leader for once. Meaning they don't actually think Tories are that bad, as Tory government is better than Labour-lite or Pseudo-Tory government from Labour.
If the Prime Minister can't stop this immigration catastrophe, the British will do it for him...by voting to quit Europe: It is Britain's very stability that is now under threat, writes Labour MP Frank Field
Any pretence he had that he could control net migration by gliding around Europe prattling on about restricting Britain’s social security benefits and tax credits must be relegated to the political kindergarten.
He has got to make it plain to Mrs Merkel that he won’t be able to win a referendum unless Britain can temporarily control the number of Europeans migrating to Britain to work. She must know it’s a make or break issue. No control, no British membership. She’d be left with the fiscal basket case of an EU.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3215696/If-Prime-Minister-t-stop-immigration-catastrophe-British-voting-quit-Europe-Britain-s-stability-threat-writes-Labour-MP-Frank-Field.html
f they vote for Jezza, they're saying they're the political equivalent of Millwall ... "The electorate don't like us, we don't care."
But when will we see a Tory majority in the Premier League, if ever?
I think the current tally of three Tory clubs is the highest it's been since at least the early 90s, possibly longer.
Mr. JEO, disagree. I still think In will win easily.
On-topic: I'm also averse to locking up cash for so long, though I only bet bottle tops compared to the deep pockets of Mr. Smithson and others here.
"Corbynated!"
There hasn't been any polling out for a while now, unless you've all been keeping very quiet?
Corbyn is rightly the odds-on favourite based on the data we've seen from earlier in the campaign, but is there much apart from the YouGov poll to suggest he'll get more than 50%?
My feeling is that it's going to be closer than that, with the percentage of 1st prefs closer to the 42% that will be there or thereabouts the threshold he has to overcome to avoid being overtaken by 2nd or 3rd preferences. Purging will have an impact, as will last-minute trepidation when it comes to time to actually vote. Plus, I'd be surprised if a YouGov cohort isn't more social media-savvy and therefore more likely to have been exposed to pro-JC content than the overall Labour population.
Caricatures are so cruel. I love them.
Furthermore that's before even thinking that Labour might back a loser to lose twice, as they did with Kinnock. That would make it 5 years of Corbyn-Foot-IDS, 10 years of Kinnock-Howard and 5 years with Blair-Cameron. 20 more years of opposition.
As to the criminals issue the problem there is not so much stopping them coming in but not being able to kick them out and most of that problem has been caused by our very own judges and nothing to do with the EU.
Cameron seems to think he can use his massive charm to convince the voters that he will have won a super deal. The plan seems to be that the great and the good will rally round and the electorate will follow like sheep, just like the 1975 referendum. Whether that will work in today's climate and when Cameron has been exposed on the immigration issue is open to doubt. Probably it will, but at this stage I wouldn't bet on it.
Most importantly will non resident aliens from the local planets also be able to enrol and vote for the price of a mere 3 Galatics for the leader of this country?
These are things we need to know because if Labour are to win again then these issues are of the utmost importance. The aliens have rights of course but we have human rights as well don't you know.
But yes, I agree with your last paragraph. This isn't the 1970s, where the establishment press and BBC is the only source of media opinion. People are increasingly getting their news from non-traditional sources and if he comes back with a dud, people will know its a dud. If he doesn't address the immigration issue in a way that goes beyond benefits, he's screwed.
Yes. Next question.
There really is no real easy way out for Labour now and every way they go will be met with disaster. They will brave face it of course but they all know now it's irretrievable.
Oh dear me..... What a shame, never mind heh?
The number of purged votes compared to the ultimate winner's margin of victory will be an interesting statistic.
It is extremely optimistic for you to think Labour can rid itself of Corbyn so easily.
The fall out is just going to be quite spectacular either way win or lose I suspect.
I think Corbyn's had quite an easy ride so far. Every time I see a press review about him there's a sense of "well I don't necessarily agree with him but it's refreshing to see a politician engaging with the youngsters. etc.". I suspect his supporters don't realise what is about to hit him if he is elected leader.
Blair, as much as he is hated now, was Labour's last electable leader. And they got rid of him, but not the much worse Gordon or Ed. It almost seems that hte more hopeless you are as leader, the more secure you are.
Secondly, there is the question of what damage Corbyn does to the party in the meantime, and whether the internal structures of the party in (say) 2017 or 2018 will favour a more electable candidate for leader.
It is quite possible that we may have 10-15 years of minority governments. And then a new generation will be in place and who knows? Corbyn will be in his eighties in the newly created Senate.
There may a Labour majority government (in 2035?) before there is Conservative majority (in 2045?). I'll be over 100 so I may never see the day.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886
naming of the sponsor in country?
where I intend to stay and proof?
for how long?
what will I be doing or that I have meaningful work / employment.
I also need a financial backer that will support me when in country in case of
any expenditures?
medical treatment?
I also have to provide before departure letter of invite at flight desk, on arrival at immigration flight tickets booked already to go home.
This happens. Even in West African countries let along other places worldwide. If I don't do this I don't enter the country and get put back on the plane, boat, method of transport to my original boarding point.
Why can't we do that here? It's a simply way of ensuring people are legitimate workers.
Edit - just seen Calum's update so maybe they will now be accepted.
Why people ignore Harman for the elder Labour statesperson role is another matter. Perhaps, as Burnham said, the time isn't right for Labour to have a woman leader (honestly how that idiot is even a contender for the leadership is a mystery).
In the blue corner we have Tomkins:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/uniontwat3.jpg
In the red corner we have Tommy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CKfS_Wb9Pw&sns=fb
That's not a defence and it's incredibly boring and repetitive.
1) A situation arises
2) Tony is bought in to explain how he personally would handle the situation
3) Tony's clients do the exact opposite
4) Situation sorted
https://twitter.com/Corbyn4Leader/status/638078650814963712
Major won an election, but after about 1993 it's hard to see any figure in the party who could have turned the party around to avoid the smashing they got in 1997. The party was self-destructing just as Blair was making Labour electable.
Hague was facing an invincible Blair. The party's problems went much deeper than him, and people knew it.
We need a bit more of this approach and a lot less looking over our shoulders at others.
AQTWTAIYOC
That's still likely to be Labour due to to FPTP.
I suspect it will take 10-15 years.
The Conservatives won't have it all their own way forever.