How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
The Republicans at least had the excuse that she was fairly unknown.
So what's their excuse for Donald Trump?
I wonder if Trump had entered the Dem nomination race what numbers he'd be polling. I have a sneaking suspicion it would be about what it is now as a Republican. He is a populist buffoon rather than a statesman of any particular political stripe.
His message is a largely populist anti immigrant one, that would not go down well in the Democratic primaries, their anti Wall Street populism is provided by Sanders
Agreed that there'd be a strong reaction against him, just as there is in the GOP. His net negatives with the Latino electorate is -51 !!! But he'd probably get votes in the majority white states in the North and Midwest, so I'd think 15-25% would be what he'd be pulling.
Trump has 52% approval among Republicans and 34% among Democrats, so triangulation suggests he'd get about two thirds of what he'd get on the GOP side. That's just above 20%, so your estimate, relative to 35% or so now.
Depressing. The people in that picture look like the dead-arses you see hanging around outside Wetherspoons in the morning. And to think Burnham was considered top talent prior to the Corbyn surge...truly staggering.
If Burnham was ever considered top talent it says it all about the uselessness of today's labour party. It must be inevitable tha it will split into two or even three after this most depressing of elections
I don't think so, the LDs are in an even worse state than Labour and no Blairites will defect to Farron who also despises their mentor, nor will many go to the Tories, and as for the Left if it stayed in Labour under Blair and Brown it is not going to defect wholesale if Burnham or Cooper win
The Tories were in a similar position under IDS the pendulum turns eventually, indeed someone like Alan Johnson could take over in 3 years or so if Corbyn is elected and fails to perform
What do you mean fails to perform??
IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!!!
may well also vote with their hearts for Corbyn
But my statement still stands! It was Howard wot lost the GE2005!
How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
The Republicans at least had the excuse that she was fairly unknown.
There have been worse VP nominees. But Trump if he persists musty be seen as a disaster - and not just for the Repunblicans. A mirror image of Corbyn, a Farage with brains, it also speaks volumes for the disaster that is 'populism'.
As someone of libertarian tendencies (fiscal and foreign policy conservative, social liberal), I'd vote any Dem, even Sanders, over Trump if he were the GOP candidate. He would be extraordinarily dangerous for the world. I know a number of Republicans who think the same way.
Hopefully Michael Bloomberg would run 3rd party if Trump v Sanders were the choice and he would probably win, Bloomberg would be better than Hillary and Jeb Bush in my opinion anyway so ironically it could produce the best candidate by default as Bloomberg would never win otherwise
How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
The Republicans at least had the excuse that she was fairly unknown.
So what's their excuse for Donald Trump?
I wonder if Trump had entered the Dem nomination race what numbers he'd be polling. I have a sneaking suspicion it would be about what it is now as a Republican. He is a populist buffoon rather than a statesman of any particular political stripe.
I just hope for the GOP he is this Primary cycle's Herman Cain.
Indeed. Although his bump is already about a week longer than Perry's, Huckabee's, Cain's or Gingrich's...
Depressing. The people in that picture look like the dead-arses you see hanging around outside Wetherspoons in the morning. And to think Burnham was considered top talent prior to the Corbyn surge...truly staggering.
If Burnham was ever considered top talent it says it all about the uselessness of today's labour party. It must be inevitable tha it will split into two or even three after this most depressing of elections
I don't think so, the LDs are in an even worse state than Labour and no Blairites will defect to Farron who also despises their mentor, nor will many go to the Tories, and as for the Left if it stayed in Labour under Blair and Brown it is not going to defect wholesale if Burnham or Cooper win
The Tories were in a similar position under IDS the pendulum turns eventually, indeed someone like Alan Johnson could take over in 3 years or so if Corbyn is elected and fails to perform
What do you mean fails to perform??
IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!!!
may well also vote with their hearts for Corbyn
But my statement still stands! It was Howard wot lost the GE2005!
Depressing. The people in that picture look like the dead-arses you see hanging around outside Wetherspoons in the morning. And to think Burnham was considered top talent prior to the Corbyn surge...truly staggering.
If Burnham was ever considered top talent it says it all about the uselessness of today's labour party. It must be inevitable tha it will split into two or even three after this most depressing of elections
I don't think so, the LDs are in an even worse state than Labour and no Blairites will defect to Farron who also despises their mentor, nor will many go to the Tories, and as for the Left if it stayed in Labour under Blair and Brown it is not going to defect wholesale if Burnham or Cooper win
The Tories were in a similar position under IDS the pendulum turns eventually, indeed someone like Alan Johnson could take over in 3 years or so if Corbyn is elected and fails to perform
What do you mean fails to perform??
IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!!!
may well also vote with their hearts for Corbyn
But my statement still stands! It was Howard wot lost the GE2005!
From my conversations with Mike, I get the impression Mike rates Burnham as a crapper version of Gordon Brown but without the charm or people skills.
Mind you Mike was urging Labour to pick Ed rather than David in 2010
I thought from memory he was suggesting there was value in backing Ed (as there was) rather than supporting Ed personally.
Furthermore David was crap as was Ed. No reason whatsoever to believe David wouldn't have done equally as dreadfully as his brother he couldn't even beat himself.
From my conversations with Mike, I get the impression Mike rates Burnham as a crapper version of Gordon Brown but without the charm or people skills.
Mind you Mike was urging Labour to pick Ed rather than David in 2010
I thought from memory he was suggesting there was value in backing Ed (as there was) rather than supporting Ed personally.
Furthermore David was crap as was Ed. No reason whatsoever to believe David wouldn't have done equally as dreadfully as his brother he couldn't even beat himself.
He said he thought Ed was a better pick for Labour and all the polling evidence was that David Miliband was the public' s preference for Labour leader at the time
If Burnham was ever considered top talent it says it all about the uselessness of today's labour party. It must be inevitable tha it will split into two or even three after this most depressing of elections
I don't think so, the LDs are in an even worse state than Labour and no Blairites will defect to Farron who also despises their mentor, nor will many go to the Tories, and as for the Left if it stayed in Labour under Blair and Brown it is not going to defect wholesale if Burnham or Cooper win
The Tories were in a similar position under IDS the pendulum turns eventually, indeed someone like Alan Johnson could take over in 3 years or so if Corbyn is elected and fails to perform
What do you mean fails to perform??
IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!!!
may well also vote with their hearts for Corbyn
But my statement still stands! It was Howard wot lost the GE2005!
It's not often that you get to see an organisation disintegrating in real time in front of you in such detail and under such a spotlight.
How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
I remember how much money I won on her winning that. I remember seeing info on that chartered/private flight from Anchorage to Minnesota and piling in on the money... happy times.
It seems like only yesterday, but lord, it's seven years ago now...
Should have bean Juneau... I don't know my state capitals!
How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
The Republicans at least had the excuse that she was fairly unknown.
So what's their excuse for Donald Trump?
I wonder if Trump had entered the Dem nomination race what numbers he'd be polling. I have a sneaking suspicion it would be about what it is now as a Republican. He is a populist buffoon rather than a statesman of any particular political stripe.
I just hope for the GOP he is this Primary cycle's Herman Cain.
Indeed. Although his bump is already about a week longer than Perry's, Huckabee's, Cain's or Gingrich's...
I heard a comment that Trump is like Barbasol - thick and rich.
It's a tad unfair - he did graduate from the Wharton school.
Indeed. Although his bump is already about a week longer than Perry's, Huckabee's, Cain's or Gingrich's...
Should we be laying Bush? He's only about 2-1 on Betfair and the probability that he'll be the one to come out top seems less than that on form so far...
Indeed. Although his bump is already about a week longer than Perry's, Huckabee's, Cain's or Gingrich's...
Should we be laying Bush? He's only about 2-1 on Betfair and the probability that he'll be the one to come out top seems less than that on form so far...
How do you think the odds will change for him between now and the result?
If Burnham was ever considered top talent it says it all about the uselessness of today's labour party. It must be inevitable tha it will split into two or even three after this most depressing of elections
I don't think so, the LDs are in an even worse state than Labour and no Blairites will defect to Farron who also despises their mentor, nor will many go to the Tories, and as for the Left if it stayed in Labour under Blair and Brown it is not going to defect wholesale if Burnham or Cooper win
The Tories were in a similar position under IDS the pendulum turns eventually, indeed someone like Alan Johnson could take over in 3 years or so if Corbyn is elected and fails to perform
What do you mean fails to perform??
IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!!!
may well also vote with their hearts for Corbyn
But my statement still stands! It was Howard wot lost the GE2005!
My evidence is simple: Howard was leader at GE2005!
Yes and he gained 33 seats and cut Labour's majority by 100 seats
Still lost - Tories two shy of 200 seats. Even Ed won 232 for Labour
Howard won 2% more than Ed and gained seats. Had IDS been storming ahead in the polls and gaining by elections he would not have been ousted as leader
True, but he may have turned things round by 2005!
It would have been too late to get rid of him by 2005 and he trailed Blair badly as preferred PM
We would never have known if his ratings were to improve by the time of the election.
BTW He won most votes at the 2002 Locals, and most votes and seats at the 2003 Locals.
Leadership ratings rarely change much once the country's come to a settled opinion, which it had - rightly - about IDS by 2003. He wasn't seen as PM material; Howard was, though other ractors held him back, as it did the Tories in general.
As if the VA shooting of TV folks during a live interview wasn't enough, a policeman is among 3 people shot in Sunset LA. The shooter is holed up in a convenience store.
A 100,000 people died last year without any pre existing condition. Fit and healthy people die as well as sick people. Been returned to work has nothing to do with it.
How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
The Republicans at least had the excuse that she was fairly unknown.
There have been worse VP nominees. But Trump if he persists musty be seen as a disaster - and not just for the Repunblicans. A mirror image of Corbyn, a Farage with brains, it also speaks volumes for the disaster that is 'populism'.
Have there? With the exception of Curtis LeMay (who ran on a third party ticket so doesn't really count), I can't think of any.
How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
The Republicans at least had the excuse that she was fairly unknown.
There have been worse VP nominees. But Trump if he persists musty be seen as a disaster - and not just for the Repunblicans. A mirror image of Corbyn, a Farage with brains, it also speaks volumes for the disaster that is 'populism'.
Have there? With the exception of Curtis LeMay (who ran on a third party ticket so doesn't really count), I can't think of any.
If Burnham was ever considered top talent it says it all about the uselessness of today's labour party. It must be inevitable tha it will split into two or even three after this most depressing of elections
I don't think so, the LDs are in an even worse state than Labour and no Blairites will defect to Farron who also despises their mentor, nor will many go to the Tories, and as for the Left if it stayed in Labour under Blair and Brown it is not going to defect wholesale if Burnham or Cooper win
The Tories were in a similar position under IDS the pendulum turns eventually, indeed someone like Alan Johnson could take over in 3 years or so if Corbyn is elected and fails to perform
What do you mean fails to perform??
IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!!!
may well also vote with their hearts for Corbyn
But my statement still stands! It was Howard wot lost the GE2005!
Should have bean Juneau... I don't know my state capitals!
Albany. Sacramento. Austin. Atlanta. Um...
Horst Buchholz!
Star of One, Two, Three, a movie with Atlanta in the plot.....
I did not know that, thank you
It's a hilarious Billy Wilder comedy from the early 1960s starring James Cagney as a Coca Cola executive in West Berlin whose daughter falls in love with a communist from East Berlin (Horst Bucholtz).
Should have bean Juneau... I don't know my state capitals!
Albany. Sacramento. Austin. Atlanta. Um...
Horst Buchholz!
Star of One, Two, Three, a movie with Atlanta in the plot.....
I did not know that, thank you
It's a hilarious Billy Wilder comedy from the early 1960s starring James Cagney as a Coca Cola executive in West Berlin whose daughter falls in love with a communist from East Berlin (Horst Bucholtz).
One of my favorite movies.
Phyllis MacNamara: Why can't you get yourself a nice permanent job with the home office in Atlanta?
C.R. MacNamara: Atlanta? You can't be serious! That's Siberia with mint juleps!
Indeed. Although his bump is already about a week longer than Perry's, Huckabee's, Cain's or Gingrich's...
Should we be laying Bush? He's only about 2-1 on Betfair and the probability that he'll be the one to come out top seems less than that on form so far...
NIck, I've argued from pretty much the start that I don't think Bush will get it because, if he were going to do so, he would have pulled clear from the pack already. That said, he has the Establishment and deep donor pockets, so he is there for the long haul. I just don't see him exciting any base, so I think he'll be in the mix, but it won't be him. But, at the moment, none of the viable candidates is getting the job done. That said, still think it will be one of Rubio, Walker, Bush and Kasich. My dream ticket is Kasich/Rubio, but I would not put much more than a small wager on that.
Should have bean Juneau... I don't know my state capitals!
Albany. Sacramento. Austin. Atlanta. Um...
Horst Buchholz!
Star of One, Two, Three, a movie with Atlanta in the plot.....
I did not know that, thank you
It's a hilarious Billy Wilder comedy from the early 1960s starring James Cagney as a Coca Cola executive in West Berlin whose daughter falls in love with a communist from East Berlin (Horst Bucholtz).
One of my favorite movies.
Phyllis MacNamara: Why can't you get yourself a nice permanent job with the home office in Atlanta?
C.R. MacNamara: Atlanta? You can't be serious! That's Siberia with mint juleps!
I think it has the snappiest dialog of any Wilder movie.
Phyllis MacNamara: Atlanta! C.R. MacNamara: Yeah, I'm the new vice president in charge of bottle caps. They're kicking me upstairs. Phyllis MacNamara: That's something I've always wanted to do myself.
How soon we forget Sarah Palin...a charismatic politician who excited the base, but who on even the most cursory examination did not have the character, perspective or ability necessary for the job and whose prospects collapsed under a storm of derision alternating with contempt.
The Republicans at least had the excuse that she was fairly unknown.
So what's their excuse for Donald Trump?
I wonder if Trump had entered the Dem nomination race what numbers he'd be polling. I have a sneaking suspicion it would be about what it is now as a Republican. He is a populist buffoon rather than a statesman of any particular political stripe.
I just hope for the GOP he is this Primary cycle's Herman Cain.
Indeed. Although his bump is already about a week longer than Perry's, Huckabee's, Cain's or Gingrich's...
I heard a comment that Trump is like Barbasol - thick and rich.
It's a tad unfair - he did graduate from the Wharton school.
In surgery today, Lisa was talking to a surgeon whose father has done business with Trump. Says Trump is super smart (he does have a Wharton MBA) and not to be fooled by his buffoonery. He is pro-Trump for the non-poliitician truth-speaker reason. But even so, he does not see him as a viable presidential candidate.
That makes me wonder how many of Trump's supporters in the polls at the moment fall into that category - people very pleased to see Trump cutting through the crap and making waves, supportive of his non-PC brashness, but not really seeing him as POTUS.
Comments
BTW He won most votes at the 2002 Locals, and most votes and seats at the 2003 Locals.
HYUFD Tories merely replaced one loser, IDS, with another, Howard
It's a tad unfair - he did graduate from the Wharton school.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015/08/24/honest-tea-atlanta-cities/32260581/
Obviously this is not a scientifically rigorous experiment such as I would do with Heidi
Accusations of putting out several bits of bad news on the same day. The following will all be announced today:
- Number of people who have died after being found fit for work by DWP
- Migration stats
- New Peers
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/27/burying-bad-news-allegation-made-over-list-of-new-peers
Also says 7 proposed Peers were blocked by Appointments Committee - Party not specified - some were MPs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11826655/Lords-must-be-smaller-and-representative.html
Former MPs:
Hague
George Young
Willetts
Darling
Hain
Blunkett
Beith
Campbell
Bruce
Other Conservatives:
Kate Fall
Stephen Gilbert
Simone Finn
Philippa Stroud
James O'Shaughnessy
Michelle Mone
One of my favorite movies.
Phyllis MacNamara: Why can't you get yourself a nice permanent job with the home office in Atlanta?
C.R. MacNamara: Atlanta? You can't be serious! That's Siberia with mint juleps!
Phyllis MacNamara: Atlanta!
C.R. MacNamara: Yeah, I'm the new vice president in charge of bottle caps. They're kicking me upstairs.
Phyllis MacNamara: That's something I've always wanted to do myself.
That makes me wonder how many of Trump's supporters in the polls at the moment fall into that category - people very pleased to see Trump cutting through the crap and making waves, supportive of his non-PC brashness, but not really seeing him as POTUS.
Average world-wide is Upper House 44% the size of respective Lower Chamber
Lords is 120% the size of the Commons
NabooNamibiaThey aren't paid for being members, but for attending.
There is access to a wide range of expertise.
The cost is about a quarter of the Commons.
It is effective in holding the Government to account on the non-fashionable aspects, especially in the details.
It prevents *many* pratfalls of the kind that are routine in unicameral Assmblies See Holyrood, and the Senedd.
Some reform needed - yes, but let's have a real debate.