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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Gag writer was seconded to no 11 this week .
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The site of the Battle of Waterloo will be restored in time for the 200th anniversary - to commemorate those who fought there and to celebrate the victory of coalition forces over a discredited former regime which had impoverished millions....to cheers...

    And improve our relations with Germany, if not France....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @Avery

    A big chunk of "efficiency savings" as usual

    140 k efficiency savings.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    @Avery

    A big chunk of "efficiency savings" as usual

    Yeah, but the difference is that this government achieves them.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GO appears to be enjoying this...

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    GO appears to be enjoying this...

    Yes - he's having fun with previous Labour predictions of disaster - and is also complimenting colleagues widely....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    Osborne finally gets round to doing some of what he should have done two years ago.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Davey sucks a lemon as GO big ups nuclear and fracking.

    8% cut for dept of warming.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Osborne forecasting a fall in debt interest payments, good job he hasnt looked at the bond markets

    It is not just rates but volume that counts, tim.

    Public Sector Net Cash requirement is falling at a greater rate than Public Sector Net Borrowing. See below:
         Net Borrowing    Net Cash Requirement
    £ million £ million
    2009 153,480 197,100
    2010 147,023 -4.2% 152,424 -22.7%
    2011 119,181 -18.9% 118,987 -21.9%
    2012 93,009 -22.0% 106,210 -10.7%
    As for your comments on bond yields the current rise (of approx 1% across the board) is more likely to be a temporary reaction than sustained short term trend (see discussions on last night's thread).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It will be interesting to see if the ban on automatic pay progression is thought through. My contract has incremental steps, and one is due next year (as the ban seems to apply from 2015 it seems as if I will get my increase).

    At the moment my pay progression is contingent on me meeting the objectives set out in my appraisal. Is this what is meant by automatic? Or is it all smoke and mirrors?

    If pay progression is stopped then should a first year junior doctor or staff nurse get paid the same as the same with seven years senority?

    The devil will no doubt be in the detail and I am sure that my union will be looking at it all very closely.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    New funding formula for schools - at long last, credit to HMG for tackling the issue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    JonathanD said:

    Ending automatic pay progression for the public sector will be hugely controversial I would have thought. Surprised they got it past the LDs.

    Why would it be controversial to the Lib Dems ? I've slagged them off alot here in the past but the only people kicking up a stink about this will be the unions - which will most likely cause problems for Ed Miliband when he "can't reverse them".

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    tim said:

    So infrastructure spending after 2015

    What a shame we had five wasted years.

    Better than 13, tim.

    Think of the houses, broadband, road and rail we could have had for all that money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243

    It will be interesting to see if the ban on automatic pay progression is thought through. My contract has incremental steps, and one is due next year (as the ban seems to apply from 2015 it seems as if I will get my increase).

    At the moment my pay progression is contingent on me meeting the objectives set out in my appraisal. Is this what is meant by automatic? Or is it all smoke and mirrors?

    If pay progression is stopped then should a first year junior doctor or staff nurse get paid the same as the same with seven years senority?

    The devil will no doubt be in the detail and I am sure that my union will be looking at it all very closely.

    Obviously existing contracts can't be chopped and changed so I think you'll be fine. THe key word is 'automatic' - discretionary pay increases will still occur I'd have thought they just won't be written into work contracts from HMG in the future.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    tim said:

    So infrastructure spending after 2015

    What a shame we had five wasted years.

    Tim, you've shown in the past that you know f'all about infrastructure. Do you want to start that all again?

    And before you start on housing, what is your verdict on Prescott's Pathfinder scheme? Was it sane or value for money?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The coalition taxing the rich.....much more than Labour:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BNr1-jcCIAAIOSW.png:large
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    It will be interesting to see if the ban on automatic pay progression is thought through. My contract has incremental steps, and one is due next year (as the ban seems to apply from 2015 it seems as if I will get my increase).

    At the moment my pay progression is contingent on me meeting the objectives set out in my appraisal. Is this what is meant by automatic? Or is it all smoke and mirrors?

    If pay progression is stopped then should a first year junior doctor or staff nurse get paid the same as the same with seven years senority?

    The devil will no doubt be in the detail and I am sure that my union will be looking at it all very closely.

    Sounded like it was the "automatic" part that is up for review - to be more performance related.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited June 2013
    Based on the links below, I suggest this analysis of Brown's 2006 budget forecasts of public sector net borrowing:

    Year / Predicted /Actual / Difference

    2006-7 / 36,000m / 33,000m / -3bn
    2007-8 / 30,000m / 36,000m / +6bn
    2008-9 / 26,000m / 97,000m / +71bn
    2009-10 / 24,000m / 158,000m / +134bn
    [2010-11 / 23,000m / 146,000m / +123bn]

    The idea that forecasts can't actually predict all factors likely to affect the economy in future years is clearly made out. The correct compairosn is not with previous forecasts but with what another Chancellor or party would do and have done differently.

    http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Frhe8Hr2TSUC&pg=PA30
    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_276550.pdf (PSF1)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Total welfare spending to be capped - OBR will warn if cap to be exceeded.

    Basic state pension to be excluded.

    Politics much ?
  • IAt the moment my pay progression is contingent on me meeting the objectives set out in my appraisal. Is this what is meant by automatic? Or is it all smoke and mirrors?

    As I recall from my time in the civil service, if you don't meet your objectives, you're effectively placed on probation. If you don't get back up to standard within a reasonable time, you're sacked.

    This means that if you're working well enough not to be sacked for incompetence, you automatically get pay progression. That seems a pretty weak standard. Instead, the minimum level of performance needed to get bonus pay should be significantly above the minimal competence level needed to keep the job.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Welfare Cap not to include pensions. Ex-pensioners - a big change in welfare - 'we are putting a limit on the nation's credit card.'

    Winter fuel payment to be linked to 'temperature test'.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dole bludgers have to come in once a week to unemployment office.

    Buy Ryanair shares...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    English benefits for English speakers.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Claimants will need to speak English - and if they don't - attend English classes - or benefits will be cut. Can't see that being unpopular - outside the pages of the Guardian.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Rafael Behr tweets: "Osborne has just nicked Labour's only clearly defined public sector reform line - integrating health and social care."

    Oh dear.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    IAt the moment my pay progression is contingent on me meeting the objectives set out in my appraisal. Is this what is meant by automatic? Or is it all smoke and mirrors?

    As I recall from my time in the civil service, if you don't meet your objectives, you're effectively placed on probation. If you don't get back up to standard within a reasonable time, you're sacked.

    This means that if you're working well enough not to be sacked for incompetence, you automatically get pay progression. That seems a pretty weak standard. Instead, the minimum level of performance needed to get bonus pay should be significantly above the minimal competence level needed to keep the job.
    A lot depends on what is meant by automatic. Will a junior doctor who passes to the next year get the pay increment as at present?

    If Osborne means it then he has just ripped up a lot of employment contracts unilaterally.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Osborne forecasting a fall in debt interest payments, good job he hasnt looked at the bond markets

    What is the profile of the UK DMO funding requirement over the next few years?

    That will give you a far better idea of the right assumption on debt interest payments than the running yield in the market
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Can't see that being unpopular

    I'm sure many people didn't even realise you could claim benefits in French or urdu in Britain.

    Presumably in Wales you will still be able to claim in Welsh, however.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Balls vying for the reddest face in the house.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Rafael Behr tweets: "Osborne has just nicked Labour's only clearly defined public sector reform line - integrating health and social care."

    Oh dear.....

    I think reforms such as those to the state pension and capping care costs could easily be the greatest achievement - if they're followed through and implemented - of this government.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lefties - is this Balls reply any good ?

    Sounds shouty nonsense to me but I am biased.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243

    IAt the moment my pay progression is contingent on me meeting the objectives set out in my appraisal. Is this what is meant by automatic? Or is it all smoke and mirrors?

    As I recall from my time in the civil service, if you don't meet your objectives, you're effectively placed on probation. If you don't get back up to standard within a reasonable time, you're sacked.

    This means that if you're working well enough not to be sacked for incompetence, you automatically get pay progression. That seems a pretty weak standard. Instead, the minimum level of performance needed to get bonus pay should be significantly above the minimal competence level needed to keep the job.
    A lot depends on what is meant by automatic. Will a junior doctor who passes to the next year get the pay increment as at present?

    If Osborne means it then he has just ripped up a lot of employment contracts unilaterally.
    The new Junior Doctor contract will have no provision for automatic pay increase in it. That is what will happen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Lefties - is this Balls reply any good ?

    Sounds shouty nonsense to me but I am biased.

    A lefty perspective

    @IanDunt
    Balls alternating between cringeworthy humor and lunatic raving anger #spendingreview
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Balls doing well.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Avery

    A big chunk of "efficiency savings" as usual

    Yeah, but the difference is that this government achieves them.

    While spending more than Labour and borrowing £245 Billion more than they planned.
    Savings that increase spending
    tim

    Let's stop this Balls about government borrowing going up under Osborne.

    As the figures on Gilt Issuance released by the UK Debt Management Office reveal the amount borrowed by the current government has fallen in each year (excepting 2011-12).
    GILT MARKET                               
    Gross and Net Issuance History

    Financial Gross Issuance Net Issuance
    Year (£ billion) (£ billion)
    2008-09 146.5 125.7
    2009-10 227.6 211.0
    2010-11 166.4 127.8
    2011-12 179.4 130.4
    2012-13 165.1 112.2
    2013-14 151.0 99.5
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bercow hasn't been told that the BBC have cut away.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Claimants will need to speak English - and if they don't - attend English classes - or benefits will be cut. Can't see that being unpopular - outside the pages of the Guardian.....

    Can't see it being cheap.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    Sesame Street vs. Rainbow gags. Is this the day UK politics died?

    Can't imagine Gladstone and Disraeli doing this?

  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    What is this "pay progression"? I thought pay rises were capped at 1% for the public sector? Is this some dodge to get round this?

    /prepares to be outraged
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Balls doing well.

    Nowt new here mike,have you got your labour membership yet.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Jonathan, not only that, the Bungle line sounds like a rip-off of a post I made here a few days ago!

    However, I concur that it does not sound fantastic. Busy writing, so not giving it my attention (except through this site), though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Bercow gives Osborne telling off "not your job to ask questions"

    Osborne gets round it deftly "Does he agree with spending more - that's what the British people will want to know "
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Osborne: Pffut, Pffut... Splat!

    Clueless.

    @DuncanWeldon

    Govt plan appears to have been to slash capital spending in downturn and then increase it once economy starts recovering. How very odd.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Balls doing well.

    OGH predicting a Balls bounce.

    He must be watching Wimbledon.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Osborne just ripped balls reply apart,apart from the idiot bercow interruption.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    JonC said:

    What is this "pay progression"? I thought pay rises were capped at 1% for the public sector? Is this some dodge to get round this?

    /prepares to be outraged

    There are pay "bandings" in the public sector.

    You go up a notch every year. The 1% cap relates to the maximum you can get in that banding.

    But if you are at the lowest rung in the banding your pay can increase faster.
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    Balls seems to have just spent the bankers' bonus tax for the 6th or is it 7th time?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not sure OGH is ready for 5 more years of blue/yellow coalition...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JonC said:

    What is this "pay progression"? I thought pay rises were capped at 1% for the public sector? Is this some dodge to get round this?

    /prepares to be outraged

    NHS contracts are banded with points in each band:

    http://www.nhscareers.nhs.uk/working-in-the-nhs/pay-and-benefits/agenda-for-change-pay-rates/

    Doctors have a similar structure, and so do other govt depts.

    Pay progression refers to moving up the points within a band by senority. The 1% cap is an inflationary increase applied to all pay points.

    The abolition of pay progression would mean that being appointed at point one would mean staying at point one.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Ozzie's a damn sight better than Bolleaux and, by far, more honest then Badger. He handles the Chamber well.

    I have to agree with @Alanbrooke : This is the settlement we needed two-years ago. The only question remaining is: How do the Lib-Dhimmies approach GE2015 considering they have helped design this solution
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    JonC said:

    What is this "pay progression"? I thought pay rises were capped at 1% for the public sector? Is this some dodge to get round this?

    /prepares to be outraged

    NHS contracts are banded with points in each band:

    http://www.nhscareers.nhs.uk/working-in-the-nhs/pay-and-benefits/agenda-for-change-pay-rates/

    Doctors have a similar structure, and so do other govt depts.

    Pay progression refers to moving up the points within a band by senority. The 1% cap is an inflationary increase applied to all pay points.

    The abolition of pay progression would mean that being appointed at point one would mean staying at point one.

    I think Osborne said "automatic" pay progression, no?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Obama downgraded.

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 9m

    US economy grew by 1.8% in Q1 of 2013, revised figures show - original estimate was for a 2.4% increase

  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    BenM said:

    JonC said:

    What is this "pay progression"? I thought pay rises were capped at 1% for the public sector? Is this some dodge to get round this?

    /prepares to be outraged

    There are pay "bandings" in the public sector.

    You go up a notch every year. The 1% cap relates to the maximum you can get in that banding.

    But if you are at the lowest rung in the banding your pay can increase faster.

    So the top and bottom of the band rises at 1% but you can go up faster within it if you are really good mostly turn up on time?

    "Automatic" doesn't sound terribly performance related. Outside of promotions nobody where I work has had >2.5% for about 5 years, and we are making decent profits. Amazing that this gravy train has been allowed to run for so long
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Well, Osborne's speech has comprehensively demolished the line that the government is tired and has run out of steam.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Grandiose said:

    JonC said:

    What is this "pay progression"? I thought pay rises were capped at 1% for the public sector? Is this some dodge to get round this?

    /prepares to be outraged

    NHS contracts are banded with points in each band:

    http://www.nhscareers.nhs.uk/working-in-the-nhs/pay-and-benefits/agenda-for-change-pay-rates/

    Doctors have a similar structure, and so do other govt depts.

    Pay progression refers to moving up the points within a band by senority. The 1% cap is an inflationary increase applied to all pay points.

    The abolition of pay progression would mean that being appointed at point one would mean staying at point one.

    I think Osborne said "automatic" pay progression, no?
    Which was what I was getting at. What does automatic mean in this context?

    If I meet all my objectives in my job plan, is that automatic progression?

    Or does my pay progress only if I curry favour with my managers?

    And after Stafford and Morecombe, is greater management control of clinicians the problem or the solution?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @adamboultonSKY: (Is @edballs starting to look like late period Oliver Reed?)
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    @Dr_Fox
    Osborne ends automatic pay rises in civil service
    Src.: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/spending-review/10142706/Spending-Review-2013-live.html

    Research obviously not funded sufficiently in the NHS....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cambs evening news says A14 upgrade will be part of the roads investment - Danny A to announce tomorrow.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Well, Osborne's speech has comprehensively demolished the line that the government is tired and has run out of steam.

    Osborne has clearly learned the lessons of the omnishambles budget - a lot more substance than I expected - and lots of name checks for his colleagues.....he took apart Balls bluster very effectively...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    @Foxinsox

    It was limited to civil servants.
    I presume thats a very specific agreement applying to a specific group announced in a way to excite the PB Tories but add up to little.

    According to the BBC website it is all govt employees apart from the military.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Obama downgraded.

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 9m

    US economy grew by 1.8% in Q1 of 2013, revised figures show - original estimate was for a 2.4% increase


    Yet the deficit in the USA is tumbling.
    And you've spent three years claiming Osborne's growth plan is working but the deficit is rising.


    No, tim.

    The deficit is not rising.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    He is kicking himself...

    @GerriPeev
    Interesting statement ‏@DMiliband Kevin Rudd is one of the sharpest brains in public life. Good he gets the chance to finish what he started
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    Well, Osborne's speech has comprehensively demolished the line that the government is tired and has run out of steam.


    He's announced that infrastructure spending will happen in the second term.
    Which makes you wonder why he didn't do it in the first term and get growth, maybe his deficit plan wouldn't have failed.
    The really odd bit of this all is that we have just had the spending for 2015, when George most likely will not be Chancellor?

    I think it was Gordon who developed this system of laying minefields for others to dance through, and it looks as if his acolyte will have to dance through it!
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    tim said:

    @Foxinsox

    It was limited to civil servants.
    I presume thats a very specific agreement applying to a specific group announced in a way to excite the PB Tories but add up to little.

    According to the BBC website it is all govt employees apart from the military.

    No jury would accept that as a valid defence....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Avery is right that the cuts announced today are on a different scale from the £11.5bn that was being bandied about.

    This is probably the sharpest cuts that we have seen to central government spending since the Coalition was elected. Given that some of the grossest wastes of money under the last government had already been stopped this is going to hurt.

    Osborne either thinks (a) that the economy has now recovered sufficiently to withstand this level of cuts or (b) that we are heading into another round of banking/sovereign stress and it is seriously important that we get our house in order before it hits. If it is (b) I fear he may be too late.

    My guess FWIW, is that the further 144K drop in public sector employment will be overshot again. Implementing this level of cuts in local government and DSS (£9.5 bn reduction in running costs of this department alone by 2015) is going to require some serious reassessment of priorities and the removal of significant levels of management and staff.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited June 2013
    David Miliband tweets: Kevin Rudd is one of the sharpest brains in public life. Good he gets the chance to finish what he started.

    Trans "back-stabbing upstart gets what's deserved as electoral oblivion looms"
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    David Miliband tweets: Kevin Rudd is one of the sharpest brains in public life.

    David "Individual Carbon Ration Card" Miliband, on the other hand, is not.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Obama's carrying out spending cuts, like here. http://news.yahoo.com/obama-budget-spending-cuts-higher-smokers-taxes-203935266--finance.html I think it would take much closer analysis to see if teh US' experience grants or retracts credence to the UK gov't's.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited June 2013
    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    Interesting in what way exactly?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    See my option (b) below. The tapering of QE in the US and the bursting of the shadow banking bubble in China could well mean that the age of very cheap borrowing for sovereigns is coming to an end. If so, the need to get our deficit down to a level that the markets will find acceptable is stark indeed.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    The Lib Dem dog is lying on its back with its four paws in the air and its tail wagging.

    Osborne is rubbing its tummy.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited June 2013
    @Jonathan - On welfare particularly. This is a chunkier set of proposals for getting the welfare budget under better control than most people expected, and the LibDems had signalled previously that they weren't happy with further cuts in that area.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    edited June 2013
    That temperature threshold on the Winter Fuel Payment has "thin end of the wedge" written all over it. Wonder what it will be, does anyone know? -5°C or -10°C?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    AveryLP said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    The Lib Dem dog is lying on its back with its four paws in the air and its tail wagging.

    Osborne is rubbing its tummy.

    Danny in fairness is doing better than that:

    "Mr Alexander says the coalition inherited plans for deep infrastructure spending cuts in 2010 and has put more in than Labour proposed"

    Another alternative history fantasy rubbished. But we will still hear it on here a thousand more times.




  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    See my option (b) below. The tapering of QE in the US and the bursting of the shadow banking bubble in China could well mean that the age of very cheap borrowing for sovereigns is coming to an end. If so, the need to get our deficit down to a level that the markets will find acceptable is stark indeed.

    So why didn't Osborne borrow for infrastructure in 2010-13 when money was cheap and growth flat
    Do you think borrowing costs would have remained low if on getting into office the coalition had embarked on a borrowing spree? "Shudder" Lagarde...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    See my option (b) below. The tapering of QE in the US and the bursting of the shadow banking bubble in China could well mean that the age of very cheap borrowing for sovereigns is coming to an end. If so, the need to get our deficit down to a level that the markets will find acceptable is stark indeed.


    So why didn't Osborne borrow for infrastructure in 2010-13 when money was cheap and growth flat ,instead of paying more for it after 2015 when growth has started and borrowing more expensive?
    Because there was no money left Tim. A government borrowing £157bn a year to keep the lights on simply cannot borrow more to fix the roof, even if it needs doing. The markets will not lend the money at less than exhorbitant cost and will not trust the judgment of someone who clearly did not appreciate the seriousness of the situation.

    Even now the money that can be borrowed for capital spending (which is clearly helpful to growth) is inhibited by the structural deficit and out of control current spending. There has been progress but not enough and it inhibits what any Chancellor could do.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    See my option (b) below. The tapering of QE in the US and the bursting of the shadow banking bubble in China could well mean that the age of very cheap borrowing for sovereigns is coming to an end. If so, the need to get our deficit down to a level that the markets will find acceptable is stark indeed.


    So why didn't Osborne borrow for infrastructure in 2010-13 when money was cheap and growth flat ,instead of paying more for it after 2015 when growth has started and borrowing more expensive?
    Turnarounds always start with a cancellation of capex projects, tim.

    Once the current budget is brought under control (not necessarily balanced but with balance comfortably predictable) then it is time to renew investment.

    The other factor is that the consensus in 2010 was that global growth would be much higher than it turned out and the Eurozone collapse was not predicted. Most economists and forecasting bodies expected recovery from recession to match similar trends to the past.

    All said, Osborne has got the UK economy growing against the trend in the EU and the primary fiscal target of a balanced cyclically adjusted current budget is now well in sight with the forecast breakeven coming forward rather than backward in time.

    When it comes to investment now is the right time for George to gently push down on the accelerator pedal.

    George's timing is almost tantric.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Killer point

    Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1
    Key from @afneil to D Alexander. They cut capital investment, when cld have borrowed cheap, now having to increase it as cheap money ends

    Thats the Osborne genius.

    Yeah because when you build a infrastructure project over 10 years - you borrow all the money up front and pay for it all up front.

    You ever visited reality tim ?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Balls doing well.

    I've only read it - so no comment on delivery - but the George/Jeffrey/Bungle remark had the potential to be really quite funny
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    See my option (b) below. The tapering of QE in the US and the bursting of the shadow banking bubble in China could well mean that the age of very cheap borrowing for sovereigns is coming to an end. If so, the need to get our deficit down to a level that the markets will find acceptable is stark indeed.

    So why didn't Osborne borrow for infrastructure in 2010-13 when money was cheap and growth flat
    Do you think borrowing costs would have remained low if on getting into office the coalition had embarked on a borrowing spree? "Shudder" Lagarde...
    The era of cheap money didn't begin or end with anything Osborne has done.
    You'll understand if I take Lagarde's word over yours......

  • NextNext Posts: 826
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    See my option (b) below. The tapering of QE in the US and the bursting of the shadow banking bubble in China could well mean that the age of very cheap borrowing for sovereigns is coming to an end. If so, the need to get our deficit down to a level that the markets will find acceptable is stark indeed.


    So why didn't Osborne borrow for infrastructure in 2010-13 when money was cheap and growth flat ,instead of paying more for it after 2015 when growth has started and borrowing more expensive?
    Turnarounds always start with a cancellation of capex projects, tim.

    Once the current budget is brought under control (not necessarily balanced but with balance comfortably predictable) then it is time to renew investment.

    The other factor is that the consensus in 2010 was that global growth would be much higher than it turned out and the Eurozone collapse was not predicted. Most economists and forecasting bodies expected recovery from recession to match similar trends to the past.

    All said, Osborne has got the UK economy growing against the trend in the EU and the primary fiscal target of a balanced cyclically adjusted current budget is now well in sight with the forecast breakeven coming forward rather than backward in time.

    When it comes to investment now is the right time for George to gently push down on the accelerator pedal.

    George's timing is almost tantric.
    the Eurozone collapse was not predicted

    I think it was predicted on here...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Sesame Street vs. Rainbow gags. Is this the day UK politics died?

    Can't imagine Gladstone and Disraeli doing this?

    Disraeli accused the government of being 'a range of exhausted volcanos'. A little more classy perhaps, but not more highbrow
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    DavidL said:

    AveryLP said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    The Lib Dem dog is lying on its back with its four paws in the air and its tail wagging.

    Osborne is rubbing its tummy.

    Danny in fairness is doing better than that:

    "Mr Alexander says the coalition inherited plans for deep infrastructure spending cuts in 2010 and has put more in than Labour proposed"

    Another alternative history fantasy rubbished. But we will still hear it on here a thousand more times.


    Oh I agree 100%, David,

    Danny has been a real star and deserves now to have his own ministry.

    But then he is a honorary Tory and excluded from my description of the more dogged Lib Dems.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting dog which hasn't barked in this night of the long cuts is the LibDem one. The arithmetic must be stark.

    See my option (b) below. The tapering of QE in the US and the bursting of the shadow banking bubble in China could well mean that the age of very cheap borrowing for sovereigns is coming to an end. If so, the need to get our deficit down to a level that the markets will find acceptable is stark indeed.

    So why didn't Osborne borrow for infrastructure in 2010-13 when money was cheap and growth flat
    Do you think borrowing costs would have remained low if on getting into office the coalition had embarked on a borrowing spree? "Shudder" Lagarde...
    The era of cheap money didn't begin or end with anything Osborne has done.
    You'll understand if I take Lagarde's word over yours......

    Good luck arguing that the rise in bond rates has nothing to do with govts printing and buying their own debt.
    I'm not - I'm saying you & Balls share the same delusion that the coalition government could have borrowed without consequence...'shudder'.....

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    edited June 2013
    Osborne and Cameron ringfencing foreign aid shows how out of touch they are with the crucial C1 and C2 voters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I think it would be fair to say Labour List did not like it:

    http://labourlist.org/2013/06/responses-to-the-csr-2/

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any markets on whether Balls will still be SCotE by a certain date ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Andy_JS said:

    Osborne and Cameron ringfencing foreign aid shows how out of touch they are with the crucial C1 and C2 voters.

    Proberly the same with the 2 ed's with labour voters.

  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Unraveling already I see.

    Mick Pork's "Osbrowne" is so appropriate.

    I love the "temperature test" though. Which satirist thought that one up?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Foxinsox

    It was limited to civil servants.
    I presume thats a very specific agreement applying to a specific group announced in a way to excite the PB Tories but add up to little.

    According to the BBC website it is all govt employees apart from the military.

    "And we are working to remove automatic pay rises simply for time served in our schools, NHS, prisons and police."

    Could mean absolutely anything.

    Nobody seriously thinks that a year 5 trainee doctor is going to be paid the same as a first year graduate.
    It will happen, because it will be cheaper that way. It already happens in those parts of the civil service that moved to so-called "performance related pay", such as HMRC/Inland Revenue.

    Since Brown's 2% pay cap [to supposedly limit inflation], there's not been enough money in the pay deals to keep pace with inflation, let alone reward people for good performance, so you already see new recruits on the same pay as more experienced staff.

    Also, because the cap operates on the average pay of an organisation, it encourages them to offer voluntary redundancy to experienced staff and bring in larger numbers of lower-paid junior staff, eroding the skills base, and wasting money on redundancy payments.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Andy_JS said:

    Osborne and Cameron ringfencing foreign aid shows how out of touch they are with the crucial C1 and C2 voters.

    It is clear that Balls, not Farage, is the target. George has shot a lot of Labour foxes today. Increased infrastructure spending (though actually unchanged?) integrating health and social care, a total benefit cap etc were all things that the two Eds were promising. So unless they come up with a few corkers will go into the election promising to deliver coalition policies and spending cuts.

    Still not sure why George gets to write Ed Balls budget for him!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    carl said:

    Unraveling already I see.

    Mick Pork's "Osbrowne" is so appropriate.

    I love the "temperature test" though. Which satirist thought that one up?

    Louise Stewart ‏@BBCLouise
    Temperature test for winter fuel allowance surely means pensioners living in Geneva would still qualify? #csr

    endless fun with that one.
    Big snowdrifts in the Greek mountains, while nice and warm in Cornwall in February.

    And in Andulucia it may be useful to have hot weather payments for the summertime aircon!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    You gotta love the BBC. Their Political Correspondent Iain Watson ( a legend in his own household no doubt) writes:

    "The battlefield for the next general election has become clearer. All the main parties accept the need for further cuts but they will argue over what to cut, and when."

    So much clearer. But is it true? Will Balls accept all of this as his starting point? Really? Will his paymasters?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    Balls doing well.

    I've only read it - so no comment on delivery - but the George/Jeffrey/Bungle remark had the potential to be really quite funny
    I am rather surprised that nobody on here thought of that one.

    Far more relevant than the Ed Miliband/ Bert joke

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Now I've had the time to check, historic yields 2000-2008 on 10 year gilts were 4 to 5%. They hit a low of 1.6% last year and are now 2.45% . That is only a modest increase, and it reflects renewed growth which drives investors out of gilts and into other investment opportunities that are opening up. The unwinding of QE would also contribute, but there is really little sign of that for several months at least, I'd guess early 2014 at the earliest.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2013
    Spending Review: 'Temperature test' for winter payments

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23065510#
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    The temperature test .. Its over there...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    BBC Politics ‏
    The government has announced that local elections in England next year will move to Thursday 22 May to coincide with European elections.

    He,he! Nothing I like more than the government doing UKIPs work for them. This will bring out the UKIP voters in full force. Bring it on!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Jonathan said:

    That temperature threshold on the Winter Fuel Payment has "thin end of the wedge" written all over it. Wonder what it will be, does anyone know? -5°C or -10°C?

    I think 15°C is the temperature used by DECC to estimate the time at which UK households will turn off central heating.

    But I understand UKIP are proposing a sun-tan test as a more accurate and fairer method of determining eligibility for the expatriate payments.
This discussion has been closed.